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561.
562.
Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management.  相似文献   
563.
Among the risks of CO2 storage is the potential of CO2 leakage into overlaying formations and near-surface potable aquifers. Through a leakage, the CO2 can intrude into protected groundwater resources, which can lead to groundwater acidification followed by potential mobilisation of heavy metals and other trace metals through mineral dissolution or ion exchange processes. The prediction of pH buffer reactions in the formations overlaying a CO2 storage site is essential for assessing the impact of CO2 leakages in terms of trace metal mobilisation. For buffering the pH-value, calcite dissolution is one of the most important mechanisms. Although calcite dissolution has been studied for decades, experiments conducted under elevated CO2 partial pressures are rare. Here, the first study for column experiments is presented applying CO2 partial pressures from 6 to 43 bars and realising a near-natural flow regime. Geochemical calculations of calcite dissolution kinetics were conducted using PHREEQC together with different thermodynamic databases. Applying calcite surface areas, which were previously acquired by N2-BET or calculated based on grain diameters, respectively, to the rate laws according to Plummer et al. (Am J Sci 278:179–216, doi:10.2475/ajs.278.2.179, 1978) or Palandri and Kharaka (US Geol Surv Open file Rep 2004–1068:71, 2004) in the numerical simulations led to an overestimation of the calcite dissolution rate by up to three orders of magnitude compared to the results of the column experiments. Only reduction of the calcite surface area in the simulations as a fitting procedure allowed reproducing the experimental results. A reason may be that the diffusion boundary layer (DBL), which depends on the groundwater flow velocity and develops at the calcite grain surface separating it from the bulk of the solution, has to be regarded: The DBL leads to a decrease in the calcite dissolution rate under natural laminar flow conditions compared to turbulent mixing in traditional batch experiments. However, varying the rate constants by three orders of magnitudes in a field scale PHREEQC model simulating a CO2 leakage produced minor variations in the pH buffering through calcite dissolution. This justifies the use of equilibrium models when calculating the calcite dissolution in CO2 leakage scenarios for porous aquifers and slow or moderate groundwater flow velocities. However, the selection of the thermodynamic database has an impact on the dissolved calcium concentration, leading to an uncertainty in the simulation results. The resulting uncertainty, which applies also to the calculated propagation of an aquifer zone depleted in calcite through dissolution, seems negligible for shallow aquifers of approximately 60 m depth, but amounts to 35 % of the calcium concentration for aquifers at a depth of approximately 400 m.  相似文献   
564.
Underground land use can play a significant role in future concepts of energy and gas storage and requires an improved understanding of the parameters of potential storage formations (saline aquifers), for instance of porosity and permeability, and also of mineralogical and gas compositions. This study aims at providing data examples and calculating vertical spatial variations through variogram analyses of important North German geological reservoirs from Dogger, Rhaetian, Middle Buntsandstein, and Rotliegend (Sub)Groups and Formations, focusing on the western part of the North German Basin. Vertical correlation lengths of porosity and permeability data range between 0 and 30 m, while most results are calculated at approximately 2–4 m and do not show relevant differences among the evaluated formations. In the majority of the regarded formations, the Kozeny–Carman relationship between porosity and permeability is supported as long as low porosity and permeability values are excluded from the evaluation. Mineral percentages varied significantly among the evaluated sediments. Besides quartz, ankerite is the main compound in the Dogger Group, while feldspars and clay minerals were more frequent in the Rhaetian, Middle Buntsandstein, and Rotliegend sediments. Methane was the main gas compound in the reservoirs, followed by nitrogen, ethane, and carbon dioxide. This study serves as preparatory work to allow for the parameterization of geological models and a subsequent simulation of fluid transport to evaluate (long-term) safety and impacts of geothermal and gas storage projects.  相似文献   
565.
Homogeneous reprocessing of GPS,GLONASS and SLR observations   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
The International GNSS Service (IGS) provides operational products for the GPS and GLONASS constellation. Homogeneously processed time series of parameters from the IGS are only available for GPS. Reprocessed GLONASS series are provided only by individual Analysis Centers (i. e. CODE and ESA), making it difficult to fully include the GLONASS system into a rigorous GNSS analysis. In view of the increasing number of active GLONASS satellites and a steadily growing number of GPS+GLONASS-tracking stations available over the past few years, Technische Universität Dresden, Technische Universität München, Universität Bern and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich performed a combined reprocessing of GPS and GLONASS observations. Also, SLR observations to GPS and GLONASS are included in this reprocessing effort. Here, we show only SLR results from a GNSS orbit validation. In total, 18 years of data (1994–2011) have been processed from altogether 340 GNSS and 70 SLR stations. The use of GLONASS observations in addition to GPS has no impact on the estimated linear terrestrial reference frame parameters. However, daily station positions show an RMS reduction of 0.3 mm on average for the height component when additional GLONASS observations can be used for the time series determination. Analyzing satellite orbit overlaps, the rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS neither improves nor degrades the GPS orbit precision. For GLONASS, however, the quality of the microwave-derived GLONASS orbits improves due to the combination. These findings are confirmed using independent SLR observations for a GNSS orbit validation. In comparison to previous studies, mean SLR biases for satellites GPS-35 and GPS-36 could be reduced in magnitude from \(-35\) and \(-38\)  mm to \(-12\) and \(-13\)  mm, respectively. Our results show that remaining SLR biases depend on the satellite type and the use of coated or uncoated retro-reflectors. For Earth rotation parameters, the increasing number of GLONASS satellites and tracking stations over the past few years leads to differences between GPS-only and GPS+GLONASS combined solutions which are most pronounced in the pole rate estimates with maximum 0.2 mas/day in magnitude. At the same time, the difference between GLONASS-only and combined solutions decreases. Derived GNSS orbits are used to estimate combined GPS+GLONASS satellite clocks, with first results presented in this paper. Phase observation residuals from a precise point positioning are at the level of 2 mm and particularly reveal poorly modeled yaw maneuver periods.  相似文献   
566.
We present a flux calibration scheme for the PACS chopped point-source photometry observing mode based on the photometry of five stellar standard sources. This mode was used for science observations only early in the mission. Later, it was only used for pointing and flux calibration measurements. Its calibration turns this type of observation into fully validated data products in the Herschel Science Archive. Systematic differences in calibration with regard to the principal photometer observation mode, the scan map, are derived and amount to 5 ? 6 %. An empirical method to calibrate out an apparent response drift during the first 300 Operational Days is presented. The relative photometric calibration accuracy (repeatability) is as good as 1 % in the blue and green band and up to 5 % in the red band. Like for the scan map mode, inconsistencies among the stellar calibration models become visible and amount to 2 % for the five standard stars used. The absolute calibration accuracy is therefore mainly limited by the model uncertainty, which is 5 % for all three bands.  相似文献   
567.
Secondary metabolites protect many marine sponges (Phylum: Porifera) from settlement by fouling organisms. Previous studies on the subtidal demosponge Axinella verrucosa collected in the Western Mediterranean led to the isolation of compounds that inhibited the settlement of cyprids larvae of the intertidal barnacle Balanus amphitrite, and the enzyme chitinase, which plays a key role in the molting cycle of crustaceans. However, in a field survey conducted at three locations in Israel, Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we observed that A. verrucosa is fouled by the subtidal barnacle Balanus trigonus, a previously unknown association. Settlement inhibition assays using B. amphitrite with chemical extracts from Israeli A. verrucosa and Axinella polypoides, a sympatric, congeneric sponge that seems not to be fouled by B. trigonus, showed that cyprid larvae of B. amphitrite were inhibited by the extracts of both sponges from settlement at concentrations several magnitudes lower than natural volumetric extract concentration in the sponges. These results indicate that, unlike the intertidal barnacle B. amphitrite, the subtidal B. trigonus is unaffected by the compounds from A. verrucosa, stressing and underlining the importance of using suitable target organisms (i.e. from the same habitat) to test for ecologically relevant antifouling activities.  相似文献   
568.
Past debris-flow activity on the forested cone of the Geisstriftbach torrent (St. Niklaus, Valais, Swiss Alps) was assessed from growth disturbances in old conifer trees, providing a much improved record of past events. The study of 633 tree-ring sequences sampled from 252 European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth.) trees allowed reconstruction of 53 debris-flow events since AD 1736. The spatial analysis of trees affected during particular events on the geomorphic map allowed for a spatial representation of individual events and a reconstruction of four flow patterns. Based on our results and Siegfried maps, we believe that before the formation of a dogleg near the cone apex in the late 1890s, debris flows preferentially used the channels located in the west-southwestern part of the Geisstriftbach cone. This study contributes to our understanding of debris-flow processes on cones and provides an example of how dendrogeomorphic techniques may help in the reconstruction and understanding of debris flows in Alpine areas.  相似文献   
569.
Chloride concentrations in waterways of northern USA are increasing at alarming rates and road salt is commonly assumed to be the cause. However, there are additional sources of Cl in metropolitan areas, such as treated wastewater (TWW) and water conditioning salts, which may be contributing to Cl loads entering surface waters. In this study, the potential sources of Cl and Cl loads in the Illinois River Basin from the Chicago area to the Illinois River’s confluence with the Mississippi River were investigated using halide data in stream samples and published Cl and river discharge data. The investigation showed that road salt runoff and TWW from the Chicago region dominate Cl loads in the Illinois Waterway, defined as the navigable sections of the Illinois River and two major tributaries in the Chicago region. Treated wastewater discharges at a relatively constant rate throughout the year and is the primary source of Cl and other elements such as F and B. Chloride loads are highest in the winter and early spring as a result of road salt runoff which can increase Cl concentrations by up to several hundred mg/L. Chloride concentrations decrease downstream in the Illinois Waterway due to dilution, but are always elevated relative to tributaries downriver from Chicago. The TWW component is especially noticeable downstream under low discharge conditions during summer and early autumn when surface drainage is at a minimum and agricultural drain tiles are not flowing.  相似文献   
570.
The Barro Negro site (23°S lat., 65°37′W long.) in the Altiplano (Puna) of northwestern Argentina contains a well stratified sequence of remains of Hippidion, the American extinct horse, camelids, and archaeological materials, which is the focus of this study. In addition to establishing a reliable chronology, paleoenvironmental information was obtained based on analyses of pollen and stable isotopes (oxygen and carbon) from bone and marl. The data indicate that Hippidion was present at the site between 12,000 and 10,000 yr B. P., at a time when Altoandean grasslands had expanded to lower elevations. By 10,000 yr B.P., when modern semi-arid sub-puna scrub had replaced the Altoandean grasslands, only camelids (Lama or Vicugna) were present, simultaneous with the first evidence of local human occupation. This suggests that a climatic shift from cool and moist (winter rain regime) to warm and dry (summer rain regime) conditions took place simultaneously with the disappearance of the American horse and the appearance of camelids and man.  相似文献   
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