Swimming upstream: addressing fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC     

Georgia Piggot  Peter Erickson  Harro van Asselt  Michael Lazarus 《Climate Policy》2018,18(9):1189-1202

Reducing fossil fuel supply is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep warming ‘well below 2°C’, yet the Agreement is silent on the topic of fossil fuels. This article outlines reasons why it is important that Parties to the Agreement find ways to more explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC. It describes how countries aiming to keep fossil fuel supply in line with Paris goals could articulate and report their actions within the current architecture of the Agreement. It also outlines specific mechanisms of the Paris Agreement through which issues related to the curtailment of fossil fuel supply can be addressed. Mapping out a transition away from fossil fuels – and facilitating this transition under the auspices of the UNFCCC process – can enhance the ambition and effectiveness of national and international climate mitigation efforts.

Key policy insights

• The international commitment to limit global average temperature increases to ‘well below 2°C’ provides a strong rationale for Parties to the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC to pursue a phase-down in fossil fuel production, not just consumption.

• Several countries have already made commitments to address fossil fuel supply, by agreeing to phase down coal or oil exploration and production.

• Integrating these commitments into the UNFCCC process would link them to global climate goals, and ensure they form part of a broader global effort to transition away from fossil fuels.

• The Paris Agreement provides a number of new opportunities for Parties to address fossil fuel production.

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Influence of the Surf Zone on the Marine Aerosol Concentration in a Coastal Area     

Gilles Tedeschi  Alexander M. J. van Eijk  Jacques Piazzola  Jolanta T. Kusmierczyk-Michulec 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,163(2):327-350

Sea-salt aerosol concentrations in the coastal zone are assessed with the numerical aerosol-transport model MACMod that applies separate aerosol source functions for open ocean and the surf zone near the sea–land transition. Numerical simulations of the aerosol concentration as a function of offshore distance from the surf zone compare favourably with experimental data obtained during a surf-zone aerosol experiment in Duck, North Carolina in autumn 2007. Based on numerical simulations, the effect of variations in aerosol production (source strength) and transport conditions (wind speed, air–sea temperature difference), we show that the surf-zone aerosols are replaced by aerosols generated over the open ocean as the airmass advects out to sea. The contribution from the surf-generated aerosol is significant during high wind speeds and high wave events, and is significant up to 30 km away from the production zone. At low wind speeds, the oceanic component dominates, except within 1–5 km of the surf zone. Similar results are obtained for onshore flow, where no further sea-salt aerosol production occurs as the airmass advects out over land. The oceanic aerosols that are well-mixed throughout the boundary layer are then more efficiently transported inland than are the surf-generated aerosols, which are confined to the first few tens of metres above the surface, and are therefore also more susceptible to the type of surface (trees or grass) that determines the deposition velocity.  相似文献   

Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study     

I. G. S. van Hooijdonk  A. F. Moene  M. Scheffer  H. J. H. Clercx  B. J. H. van de Wiel 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,162(2):283-306

The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin–Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.  相似文献   

A photometric study of the hydrogen-deficient stars BD+1^°4381 (FQ Aqr) and BD−1^°3438 (NO Ser)     

D. Kilkenny  W. A. Lawson  F. Marang  G. Roberts  F. van Wyk 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,305(1):103-108

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Climate changes detected through the world's longest sea level series     

Martin Ekman   《Global and Planetary Change》1999,21(4):741

The sea level series of Stockholm in the Baltic Sea, commencing already in 1774, is analysed in various ways together with contemporary climate data, in order to investigate long-term sea level changes and their relations to climate changes.First, a study of the eustatic rise of sea level, based on annual mean sea levels, is peformed, and compared with other sea level and climate studies. It is concluded that the general climatic rise of sea level has increased significantly (99.9%) from about 0.0 mm/year during the end of the Little Ice Age, to about 1.0 mm/year during the past century, characterized by melting of glaciers. Such sea level changes due to northern hemisphere climate variations since 800 A.D. have (hitherto) probably always kept within −1.5 and +1.5 mm/year, with an average fairly close to zero.Second, an investigation of the sea level variability, also based on annual mean sea levels, is performed together with temperature and wind variabilities. It is found that the interannual sea level variability of the Baltic Sea has decreased significantly (98%) from the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s; after that it has increased significantly (95%) again. Precisely the same is found to apply to winter climate or, more specifically, to the interannual winter temperature variability and the interannual winter wind variability. The common origin of all these long-term changes turn out to be two consecutive winter wind processes over the North and Baltic Seas, especially the Baltic entrance. From the end of the 1700s to the beginning of the 1900s, there has been a rapidly decreasing number of dominating winter winds from northeast, and after that there has been an increasing number of dominating winter winds from southwest. This may indicate corresponding long-term changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation.Third, using monthly mean sea levels together with corresponding wind data, seasonal variations are investigated. The seasonal sea level variation in the Baltic Sea has increased significantly (99%) since the early 1800s, together with a shift of the maximum from late summer to early winter. It is found that the main origin is a secular change of the winter wind conditions over the Baltic entrance, with increasing southwesterly winds in early winter. This might also be related to a long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation.  相似文献   

The cosmic ray energy spectrum between 10 and 10 eV     

M. A. K. Glasmacher  M. A. Catanese  M. C. Chantell  C. E. Covault  J. W. Cronin  B. E. Fick  L. F. Fortson  J. W. Fowler  K. D Green  D. B. Kieda  J. Matthews  B. J. Newport  D. F. Nitz  R. A. Ong  S. Oser  D. Sinclair  J. C. van der Velde 《Astroparticle Physics》1999,10(4):183-302

The energy spectrum of cosmic rays with primary energies between 10¹⁴ eV and 10¹⁶ eV has been studied with the CASA-MIA air shower array. The measured differential energy spectrum is a power law (dj/dE ∝ E^−y) with spectral indices γ of 2.66±0.02 below approximately 10¹⁵ eV and 3.00±0.05 above. A new method is used for measuring primary energy derived from ground-based data in a compositionally insensitive way. In contrast with some previous reports, the “knee” of the energy spectrum does not appear sharp, but rather a smooth transition over energies from 10¹⁵ eV to 3.0 × 10¹⁵ eV.  相似文献   

Monsters and babies from the first / iras survey     

Wil van Breugel 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1999,266(1-2):23-28

Radio continuum emission at cm wavelengths is relatively little affectedby extinction. When combined with far-infrared (FIR) surveys thisprovides for a convenient and unbiased method to select (radio-loud)AGN and starbursts deeply embedded in gas and dust–rich galaxies. Suchradio-selected FIR samples are useful for detailed investigations ofthe complex relationships between (radio) galaxy and starburst activity, and to determine whether ULIRGs are powered by hidden quasars (monsters) or young stars (babies).We present the results of a large program to obtain identifications andspectra of radio-selected, optically faint IRAS/FSC objects using theFIRST/VLA 20 cm survey (Becker, White and Helfand 1995). These objects are all radio-`quiet' in the sense that their radiopower / FIR luminosities follow the well-known radio/FIR relationshipfor star forming galaxies.We compare these results to a previous study by our group of a sampleof radio-`loud' IRAS/FSC ULIRGs selected from the Texas 365 MHzsurvey (Douglas etal. 1996). Many of these objects alsoshow evidence for dominant, A-type stellar populations, as well as highionization lines usually associated with AGN. These radio-loud ULIRGshave properties intermediate between those of starbursts and quasars,suggesting a possible evolutionary connection.Deep Keck spectroscopic observations of three ULIRGs from these samplesare presented, including high signal-to-noise spectropolarimetry.The polarimetry observations failed to show evidence of a hidden quasar inpolarized (scattered) light in the two systems in which the stellar lightwas dominated by A-type stars. Although observations of a larger samplewould be needed to allow a general conclusion, our current data suggestthat a large fraction of ULIRGs may be powered by luminous starbursts,not by hidden, luminous AGN (quasars).  相似文献   

Magnetic reconnection as the cause of a photospheric canceling feature and mass flows in a filament     

Litvinenko  Yuri E.  Martin  Sara F. 《Solar physics》1999,190(1-2):45-58

Magnetic reconnection in the temperature minimum region of the solar photosphere can account for the canceling magnetic features on the Sun. Litvinenko (1999a) showed that a reconnection model explains the quiet-Sun features with the magnetic flux cancelation rate of order 10¹⁷ Mx hr⁻¹. In this paper the model is applied to cancelation in solar active regions, which is characterized by a much larger rate of cancelation ∖ ge10¹⁹ Mx hr⁻¹. In particular, the evolution of a photospheric canceling feature observed in an active region on July 2, 1994 is studied. The theoretical predictions are demonstrated to be in reasonable agreement with the measured speed of approaching magnetic fragments, the magnetic field in the fragments, and the flux cancelation rate, deduced from the combined Big Bear Hα time-lapse images and videomagnetograms calibrated against the daily NSO/Kitt Peak magnetogram. Of particular interest is the prediction that photospheric reconnection should lead to a significant upward mass flux and the formation of a solar filament. Hα observations indeed showed a filament that had one of its ends spatially superposed with the canceling feature. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005284116353  相似文献   

The Asian Economic “Flu”: A Geography of Crisis     

Jessie P.H. Poon  Martin Perry 《The Professional geographer》1999,51(2):184-196

This paper examines the recent economic turmoil in East Asia which has been linked to the convulsive nature of global capital movements. East Asia, once the site of rapid capital accumulation, lost its economic momentum beginning in July 1997 with a series of currency devaluations, culminating in a net outflow of private capital within a year. International capital's ability to disembed the region, however, has been highly uneven over space. That China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan are far more territorially resilient while others like Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea initiated major political changes suggests that the geography of crisis is far more complex than is currently presented.  相似文献   

Application of Mineral Exploration Models and GIS to Generate Mineral Potential Maps as Input for Optimum Land-Use Planning in the Philippines   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Carranza  Emmanuel John M.  Mangaoang  Jerrysal C.  Hale  Martin 《Natural Resources Research》1999,8(2):165-173

The inherent problems of classifying or inventorying potential mineral resources (as opposed to known mineral resources) pose specific challenges. In this paper, the application of a conceptual mineral exploration model and GIS to generate mineral potential maps as input to land-use policy decision-making is illustrated. We implement the criteria provided by a conceptual exploration model for nickeliferous-laterites by using a GIS to classify the nickeliferous-laterite potential of an area in the northeastern part of the Philippines. The spatial data inputs to the GIS are geological map data, topographic map data, and stream sediment point data. Processing of these data yields derivative maps, which are used as indicators of nickeliferous-laterite potential. The indicator maps then are integrated to furnish a nickeliferous-laterite potential map. This map is compared with present land-use classification and policy in the area. The results indicate high potential for nickeliferous-laterite occurrence in the area, but the zones of potential are in places where mineral resources development is prohibited. The prohibition was imposed before the nickeliferous-laterite potential was assessed by this study. Mineral potential classification therefore is a critical input to land-use policy-making so that prospective land is not alienated from future mineral resource development.  相似文献