Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania     

Michael R. Grose  Paul Fox-Hughes  Rebecca M. B. Harris  Nathaniel L. Bindoff 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):255-269

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.  相似文献   

Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation     

Stephan Lewandowsky  James S. Risbey  Michael Smithson  Ben R. Newell 《Climatic change》2014,124(1-2):39-52

In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.  相似文献   

Distribution and Abundance of Arsenic in the Soils and Sediments of O‘ahu,Hawai‘i     

Eric Heinen De Carlo  Michael S. Tomlinson  Laura E. deGelleke  Sara Thomas 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(2-3):87-113

Lack of high-spatial-resolution soil and sediment arsenic data for Hawai‘i has generated substantial disagreement between researchers and regulators regarding the magnitude of natural levels of arsenic in Hawai‘i and rendered difficult the defining of areas of anthropogenically elevated arsenic. Our earlier research into the occurrence of arsenic in terrestrial and marine environments revealed widely disparate concentrations of arsenic with no apparent spatial pattern. To better understand the distribution and abundance of arsenic in soils and sediments of O‘ahu, we collected an additional 64 samples at locations chosen to represent different environments with varying degrees of human impact. We found surface arsenic values that ranged from 0.28 to 740 ppm with a median concentration of 8.1 ppm, which is above the global median of 5 ppm and US soil median of 5.2 ppm. Higher concentrations of arsenic (up to 913 ppm) were encountered at depth in soil cores. The median arsenic in streambed sediments from one of our earlier studies of 6.1 ppm was comparable to the conterminous US median of 6.3 ppm; however, we encountered arsenic concentrations as high as 43.9 ppm (median = 8.60 ppm, n = 75) in marine sediments in recent work off the leeward coast of O‘ahu. Overall, arsenic in the soils and sediments of O‘ahu is elevated relative to world and national values, but there still is no readily discernible pattern in the distribution of arsenic to explain these elevated values.  相似文献   

Density-Stratified Flow Events in Great Salt Lake,Utah, USA: Implications for Mercury and Salinity Cycling     

David L. Naftz  Gregory T. Carling  Cory Angeroth  Michael Freeman  Ryan Rowland  Eddy Pazmiño 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2014,20(6):547-571

Density stratification in saline and hypersaline water bodies from throughout the world can have large impacts on the internal cycling and loading of salinity, nutrients, and trace elements. High temporal resolution hydroacoustic and physical/chemical data were collected at two sites in Great Salt Lake (GSL), a saline lake in the western USA, to understand how density stratification may influence salinity and mercury (Hg) distributions. The first study site was in a causeway breach where saline water from GSL exchanges with less saline water from a flow restricted bay. Near-surface-specific conductance values measured in water at the breach displayed a good relationship with both flow and wind direction. No diurnal variations in the concentration of dissolved (<0.45 μm) methylmercury (MeHg) were observed during the 24-h sampling period; however, the highest proportion of particulate Hg_total and MeHg loadings was observed during periods of elevated salinity. The second study site was located on the bottom of GSL where movement of a high-salinity water layer, referred to as the deep brine layer (DBL), is restricted to a naturally occurring 1.5-km-wide “spillway” structure. During selected time periods in April/May, 2012, wind-induced flow reversals in a railroad causeway breach, separating Gunnison and Gilbert Bays, were coupled with high-velocity flow pulses (up to 55 cm/s) in the DBL at the spillway site. These flow pulses were likely driven by a pressure response of highly saline water from Gunnison Bay flowing into the north basin of Gilbert Bay. Short-term flow reversal events measured at the railroad causeway breach have the ability to move measurable amounts of salt and Hg from Gunnison Bay into the DBL. Future disturbance to the steady state conditions currently imposed by the railroad causeway infrastructure could result in changes to the existing chemical balance between Gunnison and Gilbert Bays. Monitoring instruments were installed at six additional sites in the DBL during October 2012 to assess impacts from any future modifications to the railroad causeway.  相似文献   

Refining management strategies for groundwater resources     

Wendy A. Klein  Alex K. Manda  Michael T. Griffin 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(8):1727-1730

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Nutrient Fluxes from Sediments in the San Francisco Bay Delta     

Jeffrey C. Cornwell  Patricia M. Glibert  Michael S. Owens 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(5):1120-1133

In September 2011 and March 2012, benthic nutrient fluxes were measured in the San Francisco Bay Delta, across a gradient from above the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers to Suisun Bay. Dark and illuminated core incubation techniques were used to measure rates of denitrification, nutrient fluxes (phosphate, ammonium, nitrate), and oxygen fluxes. While benthic nutrient fluxes have been assessed at several sites in northern San Francisco Bay, such data across a Delta–Bay transect have not previously been determined. Average September rates of DIN (nitrate, nitrite, ammonium) flux were net positive across all sites, while March DIN flux indicated net uptake of DIN at some sites. Denitrification rates based on the N₂/Ar ratio approach were between 0.6 and 1.0 mmol m^?2 day^?1, similar to other mesotrophic estuarine sediments. Coupled nitrification–denitrification was the dominant denitrification pathway in September, with higher overlying water nitrate concentrations in March resulting in denitrification driven by nitrate flux into the sediments. Estimated benthic microalgal productivity was variable and surprisingly high in Delta sediments and may represent a major source of labile carbon to this ecosystem. Variable N/P stoichiometry was observed in these sediments, with deviations from Redfield driven by processes such as denitrification, variable light/dark uptake of nutrients by microalgae, and adsorption of soluble reactive phosphorus.  相似文献   

Trends in Abundance Indices of Fishes in Maryland’s Coastal Bays During 1972–2009     

Jennifer Pincin  Michael J. Wilberg  Lora Harris  Angel Willey 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(4):791-800

Maryland’s coastal bays provide habitat for juveniles of many commercially and recreationally important species of shellfish and finfish. Since 1972, the Maryland Department of Natural Resources has conducted the Maryland Coastal Bays Trawl and Seine Survey to monitor the populations of key species. The survey has undergone substantial spatial and methodological changes affecting the interpretation of simple indices of abundance. We developed generalized linear models to standardize the indices of abundance of five commonly caught fish species: Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus, weakfish Cynoscion regalis, spot Leiostomus xanthurus, bay anchovy Anchoa mitchilli, and summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus. Density declined significantly since 1972 for menhaden, bay anchovy, and spot in at least one region within the coastal bays. The northern bays had significantly higher densities than the southern bays for all species. Changes in abundance indices of the five species examined were not related to sea grass coverage, temperature, salinity, nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios, and other habitat variables but were likely a result of stock-wide recruitment processes.  相似文献   

Role of Invasive Green Crabs in the Food Web of an Intertidal Sand Flat Determined from Field Observations and a Dynamic Simulation Model     

Melisa C. Wong  Michael Dowd 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(4):1004-1016

A benthic focussed food web model of intermediate complexity was developed for the intertidal sand flat in the Kejimkujik National Park Seaside, NS, Canada. The goal was to understand the role of invasive green crabs and to investigate potential effects of its removal on the ecosystem. Inputs of biomass, production, consumption and diet composition for each model compartment were obtained through targeted field collections in summers 2008–2010. Simulation (via Ecosim) was used to develop a data-driven baseline steady-state food web of summer conditions and to evaluate effects of ecosystem perturbations that included moderate and extreme removal of crab biomass, in the presence and absence of migrating shorebirds. In the baseline model, green crabs were important benthic predators and also prey for fishes and birds. Ecosystem properties (e.g. size, energetics, organisation) suggested a stable ecosystem. Scenario analyses predicted that crab removal caused only slight perturbations to overall ecosystem properties, but affected some trophic components. Predators that consumed mainly crabs (e.g. gulls) decreased in biomass with crab removal because diet changes could not compensate for lost crab prey. Predators that consumed crabs and also other prey (e.g. plovers) increased in biomass with crab removal because shared benthic prey increased. Migrating shorebirds had a greater impact on the food web than crab removal. Our study suggests that removal of invasive green crabs will likely not drastically change food web biomass and productivity. This study illustrates how field data can be synthesised with food web models for effective management of coastal ecosystems.  相似文献   

Experimental study,numerical modeling of and axial prediction approach to base grouted drilled shafts in cohesionless soils     

Sudheesh Thiyyakkandi  Michael McVay  David Bloomquist  Peter Lai 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(3):439-454

The pressure grouting of drilled shaft tips has become popular worldwide due to its effectiveness in mobilizing a larger portion of the available tip resistance under service displacements. This paper presents experimental and numerical studies on the load transfer mechanism and factors controlling the axial response of base grouted drilled shafts in cohesionless soils. The study found that the increased axial capacity of grout-tipped drilled shafts under service loads and displacements depended mainly on preloading effects and the increased tip area provided by the grouting process. A simple prediction approach for estimating the tip capacity of grouted shafts utilizing cone penetration resistance was suggested based on the results of the study. The validity of the proposed approach was verified by the analysis of full-scale case studies of grouted shafts reported in the literature.  相似文献   

Nitrogen and oxygen isotopic compositions of water-soluble nitrate in Taihu Lake water system, China: implication for nitrate sources and biogeochemical process   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Zi-Xiang Chen  Lei Yu  Wei-Guo Liu  Michael H. W. Lam  Gui-Jian Liu  Xue-Bin Yin 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(1):217-223

The stable isotope nitrogen-15 (¹⁵N) is a robust indicator of nitrogen (N) source, and the joint use of δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O–NO₃ ^? values can provide more useful information about nitrate source discrimination and N cycle process. The δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O–NO₃ ^? values, as well as major ion tracers, from Taihu Lake in east China were investigated to identify the primary nitrate sources and assess nitrate biogeochemical process in the present study. The results show that the nitrate concentration in West Taihu Lake (WTL) was generally higher than those in East Taihu Lake (ETL) and its upstream inflow rivers. The NO₃ ^?/Cl^? value combined with mapping of δ¹⁵N–NO₃ ^? and NO₃ ^? concentration suggest that the mixing process should play a major effect in WTL, and denitrification was the dominant N transformation process in WTL. A linear relationship of close to ~1: 2 was observed between δ¹⁵N–NO₃ ^? and δ¹⁸O–NO₃ ^? values in WTL, confirming the occurrence of denitrification in WTL. The δ¹⁵N–NO₃ ^? data imply that sewage and manure were the principal nitrate sources in WTL and its feeder rivers, while the nitrate in ETL might derive from soil organic nitrogen and atmospheric deposition. The δ¹⁸O–NO₃ ^? data indicate most of nitrate from microbial nitrification of organic nitrogen matter possibly make a significant contribution to the lake.  相似文献