Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98     

Kenneth Broad  Alexander S. P. Pfaff  Michael H. Glantz 《Climatic change》2002,54(4):415-438

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and Rb–Sr geochronology of a ductile shear zone in the Orlica-Śnieżnik dome (West Sudetes, Poland)     

Ulrich Lange  Michael Bröcker  Klaus Mezger  Jerzy Don 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2002,91(6):1005-1016

Amphibolite-facies orthogneisses of the Orlica-vnie™nik dome in the West Sudetes (Poland) show a local continuous transition from weakly deformed augen gneisses to finely laminated mylonites. Field evidence indicates that ductile shearing developed pre- or syntectonically to a migmatization event. Bulk-rock compositions of variably deformed samples yield no indications for deformation- and/or fluid-enhanced element mobility and redistribution. ⁸⁷Rb-⁸⁶Sr geochronology (biotite, phengite, whole rock) places time constraints on the deformation process and the post-orogenic cooling history. Phengite- and biotite-whole-rock pairs yield Rb-Sr ages of 340 to 334 Ma and 335 to 294 Ma, respectively, independent of the degree of deformation. The weighted mean of phengite-whole-rock pairs indicates an age of 337.4DŽ.3 Ma. Combining most of the biotite-whole-rock data yields a weighted mean age of 328.6dž.4 Ma. Because of their different closure temperatures for the Rb-Sr system, these differences are interpreted to date cooling after a thermal event. Direct dating of the deformation is not possible, but the cooling history record defines a minimum age for the development of ductile shearing and the last migmatization event. These time constraints provide evidence for the initiation of crustal collapse during or immediately following peak metamorphic conditions. The results of this study further document the importance of Variscan metamorphism in the Orlica-vnie™nik dome.  相似文献   

An experimental study of element partitioning between magnetite, clinopyroxene and iron-bearing silicate liquids with particular emphasis on vanadium   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Michael J. Toplis  Alexandre Corgne 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2002,144(1):22-37

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The eastern Tonale fault zone: a ‘natural laboratory’ for crystal plastic deformation of quartz over a temperature range from 250 to 700 °C     

Michael Stipp  Holger Stünitz  Rene Heilbronner  Stefan M. Schmid 《Journal of Structural Geology》2002,24(12)

Near the eastern end of the Tonale fault zone, a segment of the Periadriatic fault system in the Italian Alps, the Adamello intrusion produced a syn-kinematic contact aureole. A temperature gradient from 250 to 700 °C was determined across the Tonale fault zone using critical syn-kinematic mineral assemblages from the metasedimentary host rocks surrounding deformed quartz veins. Deformed quartz veins sampled along this temperature gradient display a transition from cataclasites to mylonites (frictional–viscous transition) at 280±30 °C. Within the mylonites, zones characterized by different dynamic recrystallization mechanisms were defined: Bulging recrystallization (BLG) was dominant between 280 and 400 °C, subgrain rotation recrystallization (SGR) in the 400–500 °C interval, and the transition to dominant grain boundary migration recrystallization (GBM) occurred at 500 °C. The microstructures associated with the three recrystallization mechanisms and the transitions between them can be correlated with experimentally derived dislocation creep regimes. Bulk texture X-ray goniometry and computer-automated analysis of preferred [c]-axis orientations of porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains are used to quantify textural differences that correspond to the observed microstructural changes. Within the BLG- and SGR zones, porphyroclasts show predominantly single [c]-axis maxima. At the transition from the SGR- to the GBM zone, the texture of recrystallized grains indicates a change from [c]-axis girdles, diagnostic of multiple slip systems, to a single maximum in Y. Within the GBM zone, above 630±30 °C, the textures also include submaxima, which are indicative of combined basal a- and prism [c] slip.  相似文献   

Erratum to: “Normal fault growth in layered rocks at Split Mountain, Utah: influence of mechanical stratigraphy on dip linkage, fault restriction and fault scaling”: [Journal of Structural Geology 24 (2002) 1413–1429]     

Scott J. Wilkins  Michael R. Gross 《Journal of Structural Geology》2002,24(12):1413

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Numerical Calculation of Equivalent Cell Permeability Tensors for General Quadrilateral Control Volumes     

Chuanping He  Michael G. Edwards  Louis J. Durlofsky 《Computational Geosciences》2002,6(1):29-47

A new method for upscaling fine scale permeability fields to general quadrilateral-shaped coarse cells is presented. The procedure, referred to as the conforming scale up method, applies a triangle-based finite element technique, capable of accurately resolving both the coarse cell geometry and the subgrid heterogeneity, to the solution of the local fine scale problem. An appropriate averaging of this solution provides the equivalent permeability tensor for the coarse scale quadrilateral cell. The general level of accuracy of the technique is demonstrated through application to a number of flow problems. The real strength of the conforming scale up method is demonstrated when the method is applied in conjunction with a flow-based gridding technique. In this case, the approach is shown to provide results that are significantly more accurate than those obtained using standard techniques.  相似文献   

Fluid-mobile trace element constraints on the role of slab melting and implications for Archaean crustal growth models   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

Balz S. Kamber  Anthony Ewart  Kenneth D. Collerson  Michael C. Bruce  Graeme D. McDonald 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2002,144(1):38-56

We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.  相似文献   

Kinetics of Mn(II) oxidation by Leptothrix discophora SS1     

Jinghao ZhangLeonard W Lion  Yarrow M Nelson  Michael L ShulerWilliam C Ghiorse 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(5):773-781

The kinetics of Mn(II) oxidation by the bacterium Leptothrix discophora SS1 was investigated in this research. Cells were grown in a minimal mineral salts medium in which chemical speciation was well defined. Mn(II) oxidation was observed in a bioreactor under controlled conditions with pH, O₂, and temperature regulation. Mn(II) oxidation experiments were performed at cell concentrations between 24 mg/L and 35 mg/L, over a pH range from 6 to 8.5, between temperatures of 10°C and 40°C, over a dissolved oxygen range of 0 to 8.05 mg/L, and with L. discophora SS1 cells that were grown in the presence of Cu concentrations ranging from zero to 0.1 μM. Mn(II) oxidation rates were determined when the cultures grew to stationary phase and were found to be directly proportional to O₂ and cell concentrations over the ranges investigated. The optimum pH for Mn(II) oxidation was approximately 7.5, and the optimum temperature was 30°C. A Cu level as low as 0.02 μM was found to inhibit the growth rate and yield of L. discophora SS1 observed in shake flasks, while Cu levels between 0.02 and 0.1 μM stimulated the Mn(II) oxidation rate observed in bioreactors. An overall rate law for Mn(II) oxidation by L. discophora as a function of pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration (D.O.), and Cu concentration is proposed. At circumneutral pH, the rate of biologically mediated Mn(II) oxidation is likely to exceed homogeneous abiotic Mn(II) oxidation at relatively low (≈μg/L) concentrations of Mn oxidizing bacteria.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Donald Scavia  John C. Field  Donald F. Boesch  Robert W. Buddemeier  Virginia Burkett  Daniel R. Cayan  Michael Fogarty  Mark A. Harwell  Robert W. Howarth  Curt Mason  Denise J. Reed  Thomas C. Royer  Asbury H. Sallenger  James G. Titus 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(2):149-164

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.  相似文献   

G-Probe-1 - An International Proficiency Test for Microprobe Laboratories - Report on Round 1 : February 2002 (TB-1 Basaltic Glass)     

Philip J. Potts  Michael Thompson  Stephen Wilson 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2002,26(2):197-235

Results are presented for round one of a new international proficiency testing programme designed for microprobe laboratories involved in the routine analysis of silicate minerals. The sample used for this round was TB-1, a basaltic glass fused and prepared by the USGS. Thirty nine laboratories contributed data to this round, the majority of major element results being undertaken by EPMA and the majority of trace elements by LA-ICP-MS. Assigned values were derived from the median of results produced by nine selected laboratories that analysed powdered material by conventional ICP-MS, INAA and XRF techniques using bulk powders of the sample. Submitted microprobe results were evaluated using a target precision calculated using the Horwitz function, adopting the same criteria as those used for "applied" geochemistry laboratories in the companion GeoPT proficiency testing programme for laboratories involved in the routine bulk analysis of silicate rocks. An evaluation of results from participating microprobe laboratories indicated that overall, data were compatible with this precision function. A comparison between the performance of bulk and microprobe techniques used in the analysis of the basaltic glass showed remarkably good agreement, with significant bias only observed for the major oxide MgO.  相似文献