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21.
Modelling Wet and Dry Spells with Mixture Distributions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Summary The object of the study is to develop a discrete precipitation model which is able to simulate local, daily series of precipitation
occurrences. The model is fitted to the observed data of two stations, Szeged and Szombathely, in Hungary (1951–1995), with
pronounced attention to the reproduction of long dry periods, as characteristic features of the climate in Central Europe.
The point of the approach is to model the duration of consecutive dry and wet series, i.e., spells, instead of individual
wet or dry days. After having comparisons of three different aspects performed, the selected precipitation threshold is 0.1 mm.
This threshold keeps the duration of dry and wet periods more or less balanced, whereas the value of the threshold does not
fundamentally influence either the conditional distribution of macrocirculation types or the local weather statistics related
to the so defined wet or dry days. The duration of both wet and dry spells are found to be independent of the length of either
the preceding (opposite) or the last, but one (identical) state. It is also demonstrated that mixed distributions fairly fit
to the wet and dry spells, whereas the simple geometric does not, especially due to the erroneous lack of long dry sequences.
Weighted sum of two geometric distributions, as well as that of one geometric and one Poisson distribution exhibits good fitting
for the dry spells, whereas only the latter one can be advised to employ for the wet periods. Parameters of the distributions
obviously depend on the season and the site, in question.
Received June 30, 1999 Revised February 3, 2000 相似文献
22.
Fires threaten human lives, property and natural resources in Southern African savannas. Due to warming climate, fire occurrence may increase and fires become more intense. It is crucial, therefore, to understand the complexity of spatiotemporal and probabilistic characteristics of fires. This study scrutinizes spatiotemporal characteristics of fires and the role played by abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors for fire probability modelling in a semiarid Southern African savanna environment. The MODIS fire products: fire hot spots (MOD14A2 and MYD14A2) and burned area product MODIS (MCD45A1), and GIS derived data were used in analysis. Fire hot spots occurrence was first analysed, and spatial autocorrelation for fires investigated, using Moran's I correlograms. Fire probability models were created using generalized linear models (GLMs). Separate models were produced for abiotic, biotic, anthropogenic and combined factors and an autocovariate variable was tested for model improvement. The hierarchical partitioning method was used to determine independent effects of explanatory variables. The discriminating ability of models was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The results showed that 19.2–24.4% of East Caprivi burned when detected using MODIS hot spots fire data and these fires were strongly spatially autocorrelated. Therefore, the autocovariate variable significantly improved fire probability models when added to them. For autologistic models, i.e. models accounting for spatial autocorrelation, discrimination was good to excellent (AUC 0.858–0.942). For models not counting spatial autocorrelation, prediction success was poor to moderate (AUC 0.542–0.745). The results of this study clearly showed that spatial autocorrelation has to be taken in to account in the fire probability model building process when using remotely sensed and GIS derived data. This study also showed that fire probability models accounting for spatial autocorrelation proved to be superior in regional scale burned area estimation when compared with MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). 相似文献
23.
Rare earth element (REE) pattern is a unique geochemical tracer and has been measured for various natural materials. Among these, the REE distribution pattern between bacteria and water exhibits anomalous enrichment in the heavy REE (HREE) part, which can act as a signature of bacteria-related materials in natural samples. In this study, the REE binding site on the cell surface of a Gram-positive bacterium (Bacillus subtilis) responsible for HREE enrichment has been identified using extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) coupled with a study of the variation in REE distribution patterns. The EXAFS data showed that the HREEs form complexes with multiple phosphate site (including phosphoester site) with a larger coordination number (CN) at lower REE-bacteria ratios ([REE]/[bac]), while light and middle REEs form complexes to the phosphate site with a lower CN. The fraction coordinated to carboxylate increased for all REEs with increasing [REE]/[bac] ratio. On the other hand, the enrichment of HREE in the REE distribution patterns of the bacteria was less marked with increasing [REE]/[bac] ratio. This result is consistent with the EXAFS data, because the REE pattern of surface complex with multiple phosphate in a reference material exhibits a monotonous increase for heavier REE, while phosphate surface complex with a low CN and a carboxylate site reach a maximum around Sm and Eu. Based on these results, it is clear that the REE are primarily bound to the phosphate site and subsequently to the carboxylate site on the bacterial cell surface.Regarding the pH dependence in the range (3 < pH < 7), both the EXAFS and REE pattern data indicate that the fraction of REE-carboxylate increased as the pH increases. The results above obtained for B. subtilis were also valid for Escherichia coli, a Gram-negative bacterium, showing that similar phosphate and carboxylate sites are also available in the cell walls of E. coli, or other Gram negative bacteria. In all our results, the variation in REE patterns correlated with the binding site indicated by EXAFS, showing that the REE pattern itself reflects the binding site of the REE at the bacterial surface for various parameters (pH and [REE]/[bac] ratio). Thus, the REE patterns can be used to estimate the binding sites for lower [REE]/[bac] ratios where spectroscopic techniques cannot be applied.The average bond length between the REE and oxygen was compared for various REE sorbed on bacteria, showing that the bond length for HREE (Er to Lu) was much shorter than those extrapolated from the trend between La and Dy, because of the selective binding of the HREE as the multiple phosphate surface complexes. Our results are consistent with the selective enrichment of the HREE at the bacterial cell surfaces, considering that chemical species with a shorter bond length are more stable. Thus, it is clear that the HREE enrichment at the bacterial cell surfaces is caused by the formation of the multiple phosphate surface complexes. Based on these results, it is suggested that materials having such phosphate sites such as bacteria and bacteria-related materials can induce anomalous HREE enrichment in natural systems. 相似文献
24.
The limb flare on August 2, 1993 08:30 UT, consisting of two crossed loops, shows evidence of partial X-type reconnection. The observations suggest that partial reconnection was an ongoing process during about 10 min until flare ignition.Visiting Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, on leave from SRON Laboratory for Space Research, Sorbonnelaan 2, Utrecht, The Netherlands. 相似文献
25.
Justine Perry T. Domingo Mikaël Attal Simon M. Mudd Bryne T. Ngwenya Carlos Primo C. David 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(13):2632-2655
An important gap in the management of land erosion in mining-affected areas is the understanding of the entire sediment routing system and the links between sources and storage at the catchment scale. In this study, we examine sediment delivery and its seasonality in the nickel mining-affected Santa Cruz and Pamalabawan catchments in the Philippines. We monitored discharge, suspended sediment concentrations and suspended sediment loads across 13 sub-catchments with contrasting degrees of mining influence from June 2018 to July 2019. First, we show the importance of the size of the area that has been physically disturbed within our sub-catchments, with as little as 10–22% of relative disturbance area being enough to generate four-fold to eight-fold increase in the sediment yield relative to less disturbed and pristine areas. We found that sub-catchments with > 10% disturbance exhibit the highest sediment yields (15.5 ± 44.7 t km−2 d−1) compared with sub-catchments with < 10% disturbance (3.6 ± 17.7 t km−2 d−1) and undisturbed catchments (2.0 ± 5.7 t km−2 d−1). We also show that sediment flushing predominantly occurs in the most disturbed sub-catchments at the onset of the wet season. A small number of flood events transports the bulk of the sediment, with hysteresis effects being most pronounced in disturbed areas. Lastly, we show that floodplain sediment recycling exerts a key control on sediment delivery at both reach and catchment scales, with the relative contribution of floodplain sources to the sediment budget becoming dominant in the latter stages of the wet season- up to 89% of the total sediment export per storm event. This study highlights the importance of both degree of disturbance and sediment pathways in controlling sediment transport in mining-disturbed areas, and that considering the entire sediment routing system including intermediate stores is crucial to optimizing existing and future measures against siltation and potential contamination of trace metals and metalloids downstream of mining areas. 相似文献
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To investigate the stratification of hydrolytic enzyme activities and importance of subsurface layers in depolymerization of detritus biopolymers,nine hydrolytic enzyme activities involved in the cycling of carbon,phosphorus,nitrogen and sulphur were measured in various sediment layers and their extracts at Kylaniemi in Lake Saimaa in southern Finland and in Lake Ahvenjarvi in northern Finland. The results show that for each lake all nine hydrolytic enzyme activities were higher in all sediment layers than in comparable sediment extracts indicating that the major part of enzymes was bound to the sediment particles in all layers in both lakes.Carbohydratase,P-cellobiosidase,activities did not show any gradient with sediment depth at Kylaniemi in Lake Saimaa indicating that there was rapid turnover of carbohydrates in the entire sediment column.The activities of acetate esterase,butyrate esterase,phosphomonoesterase,aminopeptidase,N-acetyl glucosaminidase,sulphatase andβ-glucosidase in the deepest layers were 19-53%of those in the surface sediment indicating that depolymerization of biopolymers involved in the cycling of carbon,nitrogen,phosphorus and sulphur was substantial in subsurface sediment. 相似文献
30.
Characterising the origin,nature and fate of sediment exported from catchments perturbed by active tectonics 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Changes to the tectonic boundary conditions governing erosional dynamics in upland catchments have a significant effect on the nature and magnitude of sediment supply to neighbouring basins. While these links have been explored in detail by numerical models of landscape evolution, there has been relatively little work to quantify the timing, characteristics and locus of sediment release from upland catchments in response to changing tectonic boundary conditions that are well‐constrained independently. We address this challenge by quantifying the volume and granulometric characteristics of sediment exported from modern rivers draining across active normal faults in the Central Apennines in Italy. We demonstrate that catchments undergoing a transient response to tectonics are associated with significant volumetric export of material derived primarily from the zone upstream of the fault, producing bi‐modal grain‐size distributions with elevated D84 values within the transient reach. This is in direct contrast to the headwaters, where the fluvial capacity to transport sediment is low and the grain‐size distribution of material in transit is fine and uni‐modal. The grain‐size response is driven by landslides feeding coarse material directly into the channel, and we show the amplitude of the signal is modulated by the degree of tectonic perturbation, once the threshold for bedrock landsliding is exceeded. Additionally, we evaluate the length‐scale over which this transient grain‐size signal propagates downstream into the basin. We show that the coarse‐fraction sediment released is retained in the proximal hanging‐wall if rates of tectonic subsidence are high and if the axial river system is small or far from the fault‐bounded mountain front. Our results therefore provide some of the first quantitative data to evaluate how transient landscape responses affect the locus, magnitude and calibre of sediment supply to basins. 相似文献