Public perception of cold weather events as evidence for and against climate change   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Stuart Bryce Capstick  Nicholas Frank Pidgeon 《Climatic change》2014,122(4):695-708

It has been argued that public doubts about climate change have been exacerbated by cold weather events seen as a form of disconfirming evidence for anticipated ‘warming’. Although a link between perceptions of climate and weather is well-established, such assumptions have not been empirically tested. Here we show, using nationally representative data, that directly following a period of severe cold weather in the UK, three times as many people saw these events as pointing towards the reality of climate change, than as disconfirming it. This we argue was a consequence of these cold winters being incorporated into a conceptualisation of extreme or ‘unnatural’ weather resulting from climate change. We also show that the way in which people interpret cold weather is associated with levels of pre-existing scepticism about climate change, which is in turn related to more general worldviews. Drawing attention to ‘extreme’ weather as a consequence of climate change can be a useful communication device, however this is problematic in the case of seasonal cold.  相似文献   

The Relationship between Community and Individual Measures of Wellbeing: comparisons by remoteness for Indigenous Australians     

Nicholas Biddle 《The Australian geographer》2014,45(1):53-69

For Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians, the wellbeing of the community in which one lives and/or has an ongoing attachment to is an important aspect of individual health and wellbeing. In non-Indigenous policy discourse, the main way to summarise community-level wellbeing is through indices of socioeconomic outcomes that can be used to rank regions or areas within regions. While these have been produced for the Indigenous population, they only capture one particular aspect of community wellbeing. The analysis presented in this paper extends our knowledge of place-based community wellbeing by looking at the presence or absence of particular facilities, barriers to accessing services, and neighbourhood or community problems. Indigenous Australians in remote areas were less likely to report the presence of a number of facilities and more likely to report barriers to accessing government services. However, there were no consistent differences in the reporting of neighbourhood and community problems—some types of problems had a higher incidence in non-remote areas (e.g. theft and dangerous or noisy driving), whilst other problems were higher in remote areas (alcohol, illegal drugs and violence). Indices of these variables were also found to be associated with individual emotional wellbeing, providing prima facie evidence of the link between community and individual measures.  相似文献   

Radio-continuum study of the nearby sculptor group galaxies. Part 3: NGC 7793 at λ=12.2, 6 and 3 cm     

Timothy J. Galvin  Miroslav D. Filipović  Nicholas F. H. Tothill  Evan J. Crawford  Andrew N. O’Brien  Nicholas Seymour  Thomas G. Pannuti  Alekzander R. Kosakowski  Biswas Sharma 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,353(2):603-611

We re-examine a series of archived centimetre radio-continuum observations (λ=16, 6 and 3 cm) focusing on NGC?7793 using the Australia Telescope Compact Array. These new images are both very sensitive (σ=0.011 mJy/beam) and feature reasonably high angular resolution (down to <3″). Using these images, a total of 76 discrete radio sources are identified, of which 57 have been classified. We also studied the radio component of the micro-quasar NGC7793-S26 which shows two distinct regions of somewhat steep spectral index (α) between ?0.3 and ?0.7.  相似文献   

PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 1: California’s AB 32     

Christina Zapata  Nicholas Muller  Michael J. Kleeman 《Climatic change》2013,117(1-2):377-397

The Scoping Plan for compliance with California Assembly Bill 32 (Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006; AB 32) proposes a substantial reduction in 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from all economic sectors through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and other technological measures. Most of the AB 32 Scoping Plan measures will simultaneously reduce emissions of traditional criteria pollutants along with GHGs leading to a co-benefit of improved air quality in California. The present study quantifies the airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) co-benefits of AB 32 by comparing future air quality under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario (without AB 32) to AB 32 implementation by sector. AB 32 measures were divided into five levels defined by sector as follows: 1) industrial sources, 2) electric utility and natural gas sources, 3) agricultural sources, 4) on-road mobile sources and 5) other mobile sources. Air quality throughout California was simulated using the UCD source-oriented air quality model during 12 days of severe air pollution and over 108 days of typical meteorology representing an annual average period in the year 2030 (10 years after the AB 32 adoption deadline). The net effect of all AB 32 measures reduced statewide primary PM and NO_x emissions by ~1 % and ~15 %, respectively. Air quality simulations predict that these emissions reductions lower population-weighted PM_2.5 concentrations by ~6 % for California. The South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) experienced the greatest reductions in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 transportation measures while the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) experiences the smallest reductions or even slight increases in PM_2.5 concentrations due to the AB 32 measures that called for increased use of dairy biogas for electricity generation. The ~6 % reduction in PM_2.5 exposure associated with AB 32 predicted in the current study reduced air pollution mortality in California by 6.2 %, avoiding 880 (560–1100) premature deaths per year for the conditions in 2030. The monetary benefit from this avoided mortality was estimated at $5.4B/yr with a weighted average benefit per tonne of $35 k/tonne ($23 k/tonne–$45 k/tonne) of PM, NO_x, SO_x, and NH₃ emissions reduction.  相似文献   

Fred’s Flow (Canada) and Murphy Well (Australia): thick komatiitic lava flows with contrasting compositions,emplacement mechanisms and water contents     

Coralie?SiégelEmail author  Nicholas?Arndt  Stephen?Barnes  Anne-Laure?Henriot  Pierre?Haenecour  Vinciane?Debaille  Nadine?Mattielli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(6):1084

Two Archaean komatiitic flows, Fred’s Flow in Canada and the Murphy Well Flow in Australia, have similar thicknesses (120 and 160 m) but very different compositions and internal structures. Their contrasting differentiation profiles are keys to determine the cooling and crystallization mechanisms that operated during the eruption of Archaean ultramafic lavas. Fred’s Flow is the type example of a thick komatiitic basalt flow. It is strongly differentiated and consists of a succession of layers with contrasting textures and compositions. The layering is readily explained by the accumulation of olivine and pyroxene in a lower cumulate layer and by evolution of the liquid composition during downward growth of spinifex-textured rocks within the upper crust. The magmas that erupted to form Fred’s Flow had variable compositions, ranging from 12 to 20 wt% MgO, and phenocryst contents from 0 to 20 vol%. The flow was emplaced by two pulses. A first ~20-m-thick pulse was followed by another more voluminous but less magnesian pulse that inflated the flow to its present 120 m thickness. Following the second pulse, the flow crystallized in a closed system and differentiated into cumulates containing 30–38 wt% MgO and a residual gabbroic layer with only 6 wt% MgO. The Murphy Well Flow, in contrast, has a remarkably uniform composition throughout. It comprises a 20-m-thick upper layer of fine-grained dendritic olivine and 2–5 vol% amygdales, a 110–120 m intermediate layer of olivine porphyry and a 20–30 m basal layer of olivine orthocumulate. Throughout the flow, MgO contents vary little, from only 30 to 33 wt%, except for the slightly more magnesian basal layer (38–40 wt%). The uniform composition of the flow and dendritic olivine habits in the upper 20 m point to rapid cooling of a highly magnesian liquid with a composition like that of the bulk of the flow. Under equilibrium conditions, this liquid should have crystallized olivine with the composition Fo94.9, but the most magnesian composition measured by electron microprobe in samples from the flow is Fo92.9. To explain these features, we propose that the parental liquid contained around 32 wt% MgO and 3 wt% H₂O. This liquid degassed during the eruption, creating a supercooled liquid that solidified quickly and crystallized olivine with non-equilibrium textures and compositions.  相似文献   

Appropriate Uses and Practical Limitations of 2D Numerical Analysis of Tunnels and Tunnel Support Response   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

Nicholas Vlachopoulos  Mark S. Diederichs 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(2):469-488

In spite of the gradual development of three-dimensional analysis packages utilizing finite element models or finite difference algorithms for stress–strain calculations, two-dimensional (2D) analysis is still used as the primary engineering tool for practical analysis of tunnel behavior and tunnel support performance for design—particularly at the preliminary stage of a project. The applicability of 2D finite element analysis or analytical convergence confinement solutions to staged support installation depend on the application of an assumed or validated longitudinal displacement profile. Convergence in commonly applied 2D staged models is controlled by boundary displacement or internal pressure relaxation. While there have been developments to improve this methodology, this often assumes independence between the ground reaction curve and the support resistance, independence between the longitudinal displacement profile to support application, and the assumption that non-isotropic stresses and non-circular geometries can be handled in the same way as circular tunnels in isotropic conditions. This paper examines the validity of these assumptions and the error inherent in these extensions to 2D tunnel analysis. Anisotropic stresses and lagged (staged) excavation present a particular problem. Practical solutions are proposed for support longitudinal displacement LDPs in simplified conditions.  相似文献   

Fortnightly Tidal Modulations Affect Net Community Production in a Mesotidal Estuary     

Nicholas J. Nidzieko  Joseph A. Needoba  Stephen G. Monismith  Kenneth S. Johnson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(1):91-110

Optical in situ chemical sensors enable sampling intervals and durations that rival acoustic techniques used for measuring currents. Coupling these high-frequency biogeochemical and physical measurements in estuaries to address ecosystem-scale questions, however, is still comparatively novel. This study investigated how tides affect ecosystem metabolism in a mesotidal estuary in central California (Elkhorn Slough). Dissolved oxygen measurements were used to estimate the terms in a control volume budget for a tidal creek/marsh complex at tidal timescales over several weeks. Respiration rates were 1.6 to 7.3 g O₂ m^?2 day^?1; net community production approached 20 g O₂ m^?2 day^?1. We found that aquatic NCP integrated throughout the creek complex varied significantly over the spring-neap cycle. The intertidal contribution to aquatic metabolism was net heterotrophic during spring tides and generally in balance during neap tides because spring-tide marsh inundation was limited to nighttime, and therefore the marsh could not contribute any primary production to the water column. At the estuary scale, the fortnightly export of oxygen from the main channel to the intertidal was largely balanced by an advective flux up-estuary.  相似文献   

Shocked monazite chronometry: integrating microstructural and in situ isotopic age data for determining precise impact ages   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Timmons?M.?EricksonEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Nicholas?E.?Timms  Christopher?L.?Kirkland  Eric?Tohver  Aaron?J.?Cavosie  Mark?A.?Pearce  Steven?M.?Reddy 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(2-3):11

Monazite is a robust geochronometer and occurs in a wide range of rock types. Monazite also records shock deformation from meteorite impact but the effects of impact-related microstructures on the U–Th–Pb systematics remain poorly constrained. We have, therefore, analyzed shock-deformed monazite grains from the central uplift of the Vredefort impact structure, South Africa, and impact melt from the Araguainha impact structure, Brazil, using electron backscatter diffraction, electron microprobe elemental mapping, and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Crystallographic orientation mapping of monazite grains from both impact structures reveals a similar combination of crystal-plastic deformation features, including shock twins, planar deformation bands and neoblasts. Shock twins were documented in up to four different orientations within individual monazite grains, occurring as compound and/or type one twins in (001), (100), \(\left( 10\bar{1} \right)\), \(~\{110\}\), \(\left\{ 212 \right\},\) and type two (irrational) twin planes with rational shear directions in \([0\bar{1}\bar{1}]\) and \([\bar{1}\bar{1}0]\). SIMS U–Th–Pb analyses of the plastically deformed parent domains reveal discordant age arrays, where discordance scales with increasing plastic strain. The correlation between discordance and strain is likely a result of the formation of fast diffusion pathways during the shock event. Neoblasts in granular monazite domains are strain-free, having grown during the impact events via consumption of strained parent grains. Neoblastic monazite from the Inlandsee leucogranofels at Vredefort records a ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 2010?±?15 Ma (2σ, n?=?9), consistent with previous impact age estimates of 2020 Ma. Neoblastic monazite from Araguainha impact melt yield a Concordia age of 259?±?5 Ma (2σ, n?=?7), which is consistent with previous impact age estimates of 255?±?3 Ma. Our results demonstrate that targeting discrete microstructural domains in shocked monazite, as identified through orientation mapping, for in situ U–Th–Pb analysis can date impact-related deformation. Monazite is, therefore, one of the few high-temperature geochronometers that can be used for accurate and precise dating of meteorite impacts.  相似文献   

Systemic geopolitical modeling. Part 2: subjectivity in prediction of geopolitical events     

Nicholas J. Daras  John Th. Mazis 《GeoJournal》2017,82(1):81-108

This paper studies subjective priorities for the data amounts in the processing of geopolitical data accoding to Mazis I. Th., theoretical paradigm of Systemic Geopolitical Analysis. After defining geopolitical plans and geopolitical focus sets, they are introduced geopolitical preferences and geopolitical management capacities. The geopolitical rational choice is studied, as well as the geopolitical preference-capacity distributions. Then, they are investigated geopolitical contrasts of subjective priorities by several geopolitical operators, and it is shown that there are cores and equilibriums of geopolitical contrasts, the study of which may provide useful information.  相似文献