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This paper presents a framework to quantify the overall variability of the model estimations of Total Polychlorinated Biphenyls (Total PCBs) concentrations in the Niagara River on the basis of the uncertainty of few model parameters and the natural variability embedded in some of the model input variables. The results of the uncertainty analysis are used to understand the importance of stochastic model components and their effect on the overall reliability of the model output and to evaluate multiple sources of uncertainty that might need to be further studied. The uncertainty analysis is performed using a newly developed point estimate method, the Modified Rosenblueth method. The water quality along the Niagara River is simulated by coupling two numerical models the Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) – for the hydrodynamic portion of the study and the Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) – for the fate and transport of contaminants. For the monitoring period from May 1995 to March 1997, the inflow Total PCBs concentration from Lake Erie is the stochastic component that most influences the variability of the modeling results for the simulated concentrations at the exit of the Niagara River. Other significant stochastic components in order are as follows: the suspended sediments concentration, the point source loadings and to a minor degree the atmospheric deposition, the flow and the non-point source loadings. Model results that include estimates of uncertainty provide more comprehensive information about the variability of contaminant concentrations, such as confidence intervals, and, in general offer a better approach to compare model results with measured data.  相似文献   
133.
Geodynamic activity in the area of West Bohemia is typified by the occurrence of earthquake swarms, Quaternary volcanism and high flux of mantle-derived CO2. The highest swarm activity occurs beneath the eastern edge of the Cheb basin, which is delineated by the NW-SE trending morphologically pronounced Mariánské Lázn?? Fault (MLF) controlling the formation of the basin. The previous trenching survey across the MLF zone has identified several fault strands with possible Quaternary activity. In this paper we present the results of the geophysical survey focused to trace the faults signatures in geophysical sections and to build an image of near surface tectonics. The method of electric resistivity tomography (ERT) along two profiles parallel to the trench identified a strong resistivity contrast between the bodies of sandy gravels in the middle and conductive clayey sands to the west and weathered crystalline basement to the east. The 2-D ground penetration radar (GPR) sections show direct correlation of reflections with lithological boundaries identified in the trench. As expected, the GPR signal amplitudes increase with the resistivities found in the ERT sections. Two of the four faults identified in the trench are indicated in the resistivity and GPR sections. A 3-D GPR measurement has identified a spot of high amplitudes elongated parallel to the MLF trend, which coincides with the high resistivity body. To improve the signal-to-noise ratio of the time slices we stacked the GPR time slices within vertically homogeneous blocks. This provided a contrast image of the sand-gravel body including its boundaries in three dimensions. The detailed analysis of the 3-D GPR cube revealed additional fault that limits the highly reflective sands and appears to be offset by another younger fault. Our results suggest a complex fault pattern in the studied area, which deserves a further study.  相似文献   
134.
Longitudinal heterogeneity in reservoirs is especially related to increase in sedimentation and water transparency along the river/dam axis. Consequently, primary production tends to reach higher values in intermediate regions where there is a balance between the availability of the main resources (light and nutrients) suitable for phytoplankton growth. Many factors such as reservoir morphometry, retention time, thermal stratification and geographical location can affect the boundaries between these regions. The tropical Funil Reservoir (Brazil), despite a low retention time, has experienced severe eutrophication in recent decades, with persistent cyanobacteria blooms. During the course of 1 year, samples were collected at four stations along the reservoir (fluvial, intermediate and lentic compartments) to evaluate if spatial heterogeneity could affect the occurrence and distribution of these blooms along the reservoir. Although the reservoir has a short annual retention time (mean 41.5 days), the typical zonation pattern was observed for the main abiotic variables and phytoplankton abundance. However, higher biomass occurred in the lentic compartment rather than in the intermediate zone. Despite the peculiar heterogeneity in total biomass, the phytoplankton composition and seasonal variability were very similar along the entire reservoir, with a few marked differences only in the fluvial zone. Phytoplankton total biomass in Funil Reservoir was high, even in periods of lower seasonal retention time (around 15 days), and was especially related to high input of nutrients. Moreover, retention time directly affects the spatial heterogeneity of phytoplankton biomass, since strong variability was only observed during the cold-dry season, corresponding to periods of longer retention time (around 80 days). While high availability of nutrients promoted high cyanobacterial biomass in the entire system, the few periods of heterogeneous spatiality seemed to be related to changes in retention time.  相似文献   
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Modeling of suspended sediment particle movement in surface water can be achieved by stochastic particle tracking model approaches.In this paper,different mathematical forms of particle tracking models are introduced to describe particle movement under various flow conditions,i.e.,the stochastic diffusion process,stochastic jump process,and stochastic jump diffusion process.While the stochastic diffusion process can be used to represent the stochastic movement of suspended particles in turbulent flows,the stochastic jump and the stochastic jump diffusion processes can be used to describe suspended particle movement in the occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows.An extreme flow herein is defined as a hydrologic flow event or a hydrodynamic flow phenomenon with a low probability of occurrence and a high impact on its ambient flow environment.In this paper,the suspended sediment particle is assumed to immediately follow the extreme flows in the jump process(i.e.the time lag between the flow particle and the sediment particle in extreme flows is considered negligible).In the proposed particle tracking models,a random term mainly caused by fluid eddy motions is modeled as a Wiener process,while the random occurrences of a sequence of extreme flows can be modeled as a Poisson process.The frequency of occurrence of the extreme flows in the proposed particle tracking model can be explicitly accounted for by the Poisson process when evaluating particle movement.The ensemble mean and variance of particle trajectory can be obtained from the proposed stochastic models via simulations.The ensemble mean and variance of particle velocity are verified with available data.Applicability of the proposed stochastic particle tracking models for sediment transport modeling is also discussed.  相似文献   
137.
Envisat ASAR的区域森林-非森林制图   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Envisat卫星ASAR传感器的双极化数据对区域森林监测十分有效。通过分别采用SRTM DEM和Landsat TM图像对地形起伏区域和平坦区域的SAR图像进行地理编码,发展了一种SAR图像自动预处理方法。基于冬季单时相ASAR数据的HH(水平发射,水平接收)、HV(水平发射,垂直接收)极化比值和HV极化图像,提出了一种面向对象的森林-非森林分类方法。将之应用于中国东北森林/非森林制图,分类总体精度、森林用户精度和生产者精度分别为83.7%,85.6%和75.7%。结果表明,本文提出的方法十分适合区域森林-非森林制图的业务化运行。  相似文献   
138.
International Journal of Earth Sciences - The nature of the protolith(s) of high-grade gneisses from the Aegean Cycladic Basement Unit of the islands of Paros and Serifos is investigated using...  相似文献   
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140.
The spatial and temporal discharge regime and its effects on benthic communities were studied in two small temporary karstic stream systems of the Paderborner Hochfläche (East Westphalia, Germany). Both streams are characterized by very small perennial springbrook sections. Benthic invertebrates were sampled three times at 12 sites and discharge was measured monthly from March to September 2000. The spatial extension of streamflow was observed regularly to evaluate the duration of drought. Both streams showed a longitudinal gradient of hydrological intermittency from very small perennial reaches with low intermittency to an extremely harsh hydrological situation. The benthic communities displayed a decreasing species richness at increasing intermittency. The different hydrological stream sections were colonized by different lotic communities, characterized by typical species of temporary streams and by several typical species of springs. Particularly the perennial springs and springbrooks are very important for the species richness in these karstic stream systems.  相似文献   
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