Volcanic eruptions may create a wide range of risks in inhabited areas and, as a consequence, major economic damage to the
surrounding territory. An example of volcanic hazard was given between 1998 and 2001 by Mt. Etna volcano, in Italy, with its
frequent paroxysmal explosive activity that caused more than a hundred fire-fountain episodes. In the period January–June
2000, in particular, 64 lava fountains took place at the Southeast Crater. During the most intense explosive phase of each
episode, a sustained column often formed, reaching up to 6 km above the eruptive vent. Then, the column started to expand
laterally causing more or less copious tephra fallout on the slopes of Etna; ash and lapilli, therefore, constituted a serious
danger for vehicular and air traffic. A software and hardware warning system was developed to mitigate the volcanic hazard
indicating the areas affected by potential ash and lapilli fallout. The alert system was mainly based on the good correspondence
between the pattern of volcanic tremor amplitude and the evolution of explosive activity. When a fixed tremor threshold was
exceeded, a semiautomatic process started to send faxes to Civil Defence and Municipalities directly affected by tephra fallout,
together with information on wind directions from the Meteorological Office. The application of this methodology, during the
last 14 eruptive episodes in 2000 and the 14 events occurred in 2001, demonstrated the good correspondence between the forecasts
on the areas affected by tephra fallout and the effective tephra distribution on land. Despite the integrity of the performance
provided by the alert system, small discrepancies occurred in the technical procedure of alerting, for which possible solutions
have been discussed. The improvement of this type of system, could become basic for the Etnean region and be proposed for
similar volcanic areas throughout the world. 相似文献
A three-dimensional Qp image of the Campi Flegrei caldera between 0 and 3 km of depth has been inferred by the inversion of P rise time and pulse width data of 87 local earthquakes recorded during the last bradiseismic crisis by a local array deployed in the area by the University of Wisconsin. The availability of both thermal measurements in 5 deep boreholes and of a heat flow surface map of the area allowed us to calibrate the local temperature F vs. Qp relationship. The comparison of Qp, Vp and Vp/Vs images, combined with hydrogeological and geochemical data from deep boreholes, allowed us to distinguish some low-Qp anomalies related to the presence of fluids in the rocks from a deep low-Qp anomaly related to the conductive cooling of a magma reservoir. The deep anomaly is located in the same zone where several authors believe that the volcanic and magmatic activity migrated after the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruption. Moreover this anomaly includes the area where the existence of a magma chamber at depth between 4 and 5 km was inferred by an active seismic experiment. 相似文献
Three Pleistocene glaciations and two Holocene Neoglacial advances occurred on volcano Ajusco in central Mexico. Lateral moraines of the oldest glaciation, the Marqués, above 3250 m are made of light-gray indurated till and are extensively modified by erosion. Below 3200 m the till is dark red, decomposed, and buried beneath volcanic colluvium and tephra. Very strongly to strongly developed soil profiles (Inceptisols) have formed in the Marqués till and in overlying colluvia and tephra. Large sharp-crested moraines of the second glaciation, the Santo Tomás, above 3300 m are composed of pale-brown firm till and are somewhat eroded by gullies. Below 3250 m the till is light reddish brown, cemented, and weathered. Less-strongly developed soil profiles (Inceptisols) have formed in the Santo Tomás till and in overlying colluvia and tephra. Narrow-crested moraines of yellowish-brown loose till of the third glaciation, the Albergue, are uneroded. Weakly developed soil profiles (Inceptisols) in the Albergue till have black ash in the upper horizon. Two small Neoglacial moraines of yellowish-brown bouldery till on the cirque floor of the largest valley support weakly developed soil profiles with only A and Cox horizons and no ash in the upper soil horizons. Radiocarbon dating of organic matter of the B horizons developed in tills, volcanic ash, and colluvial volcanic sand includes ages for both the soil-organic residue and the humic-acid fraction, with differences from 140 to 660 yr. The dating provides minimum ages of about 27,000 yr for the Marqués glaciation and about 25,000 yr for the Santo Tomás glaciation. Dates for the overlying tephra indicate a complex volcanic history for at least another 15,000 yr. Comparison of the Ajusco glacial sequence with that on Iztaccíhuatl to the east suggests that the Marqués and Santo Tomás glaciations may be equivalent to the Diamantes glaciation First and Second advances, the Albergue to the Alcalican glaciations, and the Neoglacial to the Ayolotepito advances. 相似文献
We are presenting an attempt to evaluate the spatial variability of geotechnical parameters in the upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma (Italy) by means of multivariate geostatistics.The upper Pleistocene–Holocene alluvial deposits of Roma are sensitive to high levels of geohazard. They occupy a sizable and significant part of the city, being the foundation for many monuments, historical neighborhoods, and archaeological areas, and the main host of the present and future subway lines. We have stored information from more than 2000 geotechnical boreholes crossing the alluvial deposits into a relational database. For the present study, only the boreholes with lithologic/textural interpretation and geotechnical information were selected. The set includes 283 boreholes and 719 samples, which have a set of geotechnical information comprising physical properties and mechanical parameters.Techniques of multivariate statistics and geostatistics were combined and compared to evaluate the estimation methods of the mechanical parameters, with special reference to the drained friction angle from direct shear test (φ′). Principal Component Analysis was applied to the dataset to highlight the relationships between the geotechnical parameters. Through cross-validation analysis, multiple linear regression, kriging, and cokriging were tested as estimators of φ′. Cross-validation demonstrates that the cokriging with granulometries as auxiliary variables is the most suitable method to estimate φ′. In addition to proving that cokriging is a good estimator of φ′, cross-validation demonstrates that input data are coherent and this allows us to use them for estimation of geotechnical parameters, although they come from different laboratories and different vintages.Nevertheless, to get the same good results of cross-validation in estimation, it is necessary for granulometries to be available at grid points. Since this information being not available at all grid points, it is expected that, in the future, textural information can be derived in an indirect way, i.e., from lithologic/textural spatial reconstructions. 相似文献
How atmospheric and oceanic processes control North American precipitation variability has been extensively investigated, and yet debates remain. Here we address this question in a 50 km-resolution flux-adjusted global climate model. The high spatial resolution and flux adjustment greatly improve the model’s ability to realistically simulate North American precipitation, the relevant tropical and midlatitude variability and their teleconnections. Comparing two millennium-long simulations with and without an interactive ocean, we find that the leading modes of North American precipitation variability on seasonal and longer timescales exhibit nearly identical spatial and spectral characteristics, explained fraction of total variance and associated atmospheric circulation. This finding suggests that these leading modes arise from internal atmospheric dynamics and atmosphere-land coupling. However, in the fully coupled simulation, North American precipitation variability still correlates significantly with tropical ocean variability, consistent with observations and prior literature. We find that tropical ocean variability does not create its own type of atmospheric variability but excites internal atmospheric modes of variability in midlatitudes. This oceanic impact on North American precipitation is secondary to atmospheric impacts based on correlation. However, relative to the simulation without an interactive ocean, the fully coupled simulation amplifies precipitation variance over southwest North America (SWNA) during late spring to summer by up to 90%. The amplification is caused by a stronger variability in atmospheric moisture content that is attributed to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Enhanced atmospheric moisture variations over the tropical Pacific are transported by seasonal mean southwesterly winds into SWNA, resulting in larger precipitation variance.
In special cases in which satellite constellations can be described by a limited set of parameters, a correlation between
the latter and the constellation characteristics (i.e. shape and kinematics of the satellite configurations) has been investigated.
Such cases may be a useful starting point for designing more complex constellations in order to achieve better the desired
performances.
Therefore, this proves to be one way to fix an initial set of parameters once the desired behaviour of the constellation has
been established on the basis of the operational purposes required.
This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
On 9 January 2001, a seismic swarm, located on the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna and with nearly identical waveforms, caused some damage to Zafferana Etnea village, 3 km from the epicentral area.An analysis of the seismicity occurring in the last 8 years in this area has revealed other earthquakes with the same characteristics; some pre-empted and followed (up to a few months) the 2001 January swarm, others were recorded more than five years beforehand.Using similarity of waveforms, these earthquakes were classified into three families.The use of a multiplet-technique has allowed to obtain the spatial distribution of the events with higher precision (mean error of 10-20 m) with respect to traditional localization techniques.Mt. Etna earthquakes relocation clearly describes the geometry of the seismogenic tectonic structure; the hypocenters lie on a NE-SW oriented plane that is coincident with one of the focal planes obtained by first-arrival polarities. This alignment is also coherent with one of the main regional tectonic trends cutting the Mt. Etna area, and can be interpreted as a right-lateral strike seismic source on the south-eastern flank of Mt. Etna, distant from eruptive centres, which repeats from time to time and is able to produce strong energy releases. 相似文献