Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Eric P. Salathé Jr.  L. Ruby Leung  Yun Qian  Yongxin Zhang 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):51-75

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.  相似文献   

A New Method for Calculating the Wind Speed Distribution of a Moving Tropical Cyclone     

HU Banghui  YANG Xiuqun  TAN Yanke  WANG Yongqing  FAN Yong 《大气科学进展》2010,27(1):69-79

Based on gradient wind equations,including frictional force,and considering the effect of the movement of a tropical cyclone on wind speed,the Fujita Formula is improved and further simplified,and the numerical scheme for calculating the maximum wind speed radius and wind velocity distribution of a moving tropical cyclone is derived.In addition,the effect of frictional force on the internal structure of the tropical cyclone is discussed.By comparison with observational data,this numerical scheme demonstrate...  相似文献   

1951—2005年中国大陆霾的时空变化   总被引：37，自引：3，他引：34  

吴兑  吴晓京  李菲  谭浩波  陈静  曹治强  孙弦  陈欢欢  李海燕 《气象学报》2010,68(5):680-688

霾的出现有重要的空气质量指示意义.而雾的记录,有明确的天气指示意义.由于经济规模的迅速扩大和城市化进程的加快,中国大陆都市霾天气日趋严重.利用1951-2005年中国大陆743个地面气象站资料分析中国大陆霾的长期变化趋势,结果表明:霾的地理分布特点是,从1956年到1980年中国霾日都比较少,仅四川盆地和新疆南部超过50天;20世纪80年代以后中国霾日明显增加,到21世纪大陆东部大部分地区几乎都超过100天,其中大城市区域超过150天,与经济活动密切相关.霾日排在前10位的依次是沈阳、河北邢台、重庆市区、辽宁本溪、西安、成都、四川遂宁、湖北老河口、新疆和田、且末、民丰、四川内江,主要集中在辽宁中部、四川盆地、华北平原和关中平原地区,以及受沙尘暴影响较多的南疆地区.就中国大陆而言,12和1月霾天气日数明显偏多,2个月霾日数的总和达到了全年的30%;9月霾天气日数最少,约占全年的5%.具有藕日增加变化趋势的站点主要分布在中国的东部和南部,包括华北、黄淮、江淮、江南、江汉、华南以及西南地区东部,是中同东部一些经济和工业比较发达的地区.具有霾日减少变化趋势的站点主要分布在东北、内蒙古和西北地区东部.这些地方的经济和工业水平相对滞后,东北地区作为老工业基地,但近年来工业结构的调整和环境治理的改善使当地的霾日数逐渐减少.  相似文献   

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model     

Ralf Döscher  Klaus Wyser  H. E. Markus Meier  Minwei Qian  René Redler 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(7-8):1157-1176

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.  相似文献   

影响预报员应用先进天气预报技术的因素分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

段欲晓  王迎春  叶谦  李青春  韩佳芮  李迅 《气象》2010,36(6):122-127

先进的天气预报技术只有被预报员有效应用才能发挥其重要作用。为了促进预报员应用先进技术,有必要对影响预报员应用先进技术的各方面因素进行分析研究并提出对策,以提升气象服务能力和提高气象服务质量。本研究对短时临近预报新技术产品从无到有、预报员对新技术产品从陌生到接纳应用的整个过程进行连续3年的互动式调查评估,以B08FDP技术产品被预报员在北京2008年奥运气象服务中的应用过程为例,采用问卷调查和深度访谈的方式,通过2006年预报员的需求调查,挖掘出先进的预报技术产品要被预报员接纳和应用所面临的3个突出问题,并进行分析研究提出对策建议反馈给气象部门;通过2007和2008年追踪分析B08FDP被预报员逐步接受并应用的情况,揭示出要提高预报员对先进技术的应用,就要深入调查预报员需求并给予满足、有针对性地开展预报员培训教育、建立完善预报员与科研人员互动反馈的常态机制。  相似文献   

祁连山区冬半年积雪分布及变化的遥感研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王兴  张强  郭铌  蔡迪花  张杰  陈乾  汤懋苍 《高原气象》2010,29(2):366-372

利用国家卫星中心提供的1996—2002年冬半年(11月～翌年4月)的旬积雪数据、地面气象站温度和实测积雪数据,以及结合祁连山区DEM数据,研究了同期祁连山区积雪时空分布及其变化特征。结果表明:祁连山区冬半年积雪大多随山脉走向呈带状分布在山脊区,而山谷和南面盆地分布较少;积雪西段最多,东段次之,中段最少。祁连山区不同积雪频率所分布的平均高度的基本趋势为积雪频率越大分布的高度也越高。就不同频率的积雪而言,频率越低所占比例越大,频率越高所占比例越小;总体上祁连山区在1998/1999年冬季积雪达到最小值,在1998/1999年冬季之前呈波动变化,之后呈持续显著增加的趋势,但主要贡献在低频率。对祁连山东、中、西三段而言,东、中两段在1998/1999年冬季前呈减少趋势,1998/1999年冬季后呈增加趋势,东、中两段平均积雪频率变化量很接近;而西段从1996/1997年冬季开始呈缓慢增加的趋势,而且积雪平均出现频率明显要比东、中两段高很多。祁连山东、中、西三段积雪覆盖度随着高度增加而增大,只有中段在1999—2001年随着高度的递增积雪覆盖度增加不明显,变化趋势比较复杂,这可能与中段所受天气系统和地形等的影响比较复杂有关。  相似文献   

一次冷锋过境后的海风三维结构数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

盛春岩  史茜  高守亭  郭俊建 《应用气象学报》2010,21(2):189-197

为研究大尺度系统风对海风的影响以及海风三维结构特征,利用山东省123个地面自动站资料、青岛地区三十多个内陆及沿海、海岛观测站以及奥帆赛场3个浮标站资料,对2006年8月21日青岛一次海风个例进行了分析,并利用美国俄克拉荷马大学风暴分析预测中心开发的ARPS(the Advanced Regional Prediction System)模式,对海风过程进行了数值模拟研究。结果发现:在较强的离岸风背景下,当内陆气温高于海面气温2℃左右时,海风也可以发生。海风首先在海岸线附近的海上开始,发展的同时向内陆及远海地区推进。海风低层环流很浅,主要位于500 m以下。在较强的偏北离岸风下,海风向内陆推进的距离很短。偏北的大尺度系统风由于渤海冷下垫面的影响,不利于青岛海风的维持。海风开始时,在1500～2500 m高度处同时有反环流出现,但直到傍晚前后,海风的垂直环流圈才发展得比较清晰,其高度也更接近地面。海风消亡后,高层的垂直环流圈及反环流维持3 h左右才逐渐消亡。  相似文献   

Trends in graded precipitation in China from 1961 to 2000   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

符娇兰  钱维宏  林祥 《大气科学进展》2008,25(2):267-278

Daily precipitation rates observed at 576 stations in China from 1961 to 2000 were classified into six grades of intensity, including trace （no amount）, slight （≤ 1 mm d^-1）, small, large, heavy, and very heavy. The last four grades together constitute the so called effective precipitation （〉 1 mm d^-1）. The spatial distribution and temporal trend of the graded precipitation days are examined. A decreasing trend in trace precipitation days is observed for the whole of China, except at several sites in the south of the middle section of the Yangtze River, while a decreasing trend in slight precipitation days only appears in eastern China. The decreasing trend and interannual variability of trace precipitation days is consistent with the warming trend and corresponding temperature variability in China for the same period, indicating a possible role played by increased surface air temperature in cloud formation processes. For the effective precipitation days, a decreasing trend is observed along the Yellow River valley and for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Southwest China, while an increasing trend is found for Xinjiang, the eastern Tibetan Plateau, Northeast China and Southeast China. The decreasing trend of effective precipitation days for the middle- lower Yellow River valley and the increasing trend for the lower Yangtze River valley are most likely linked to anomalous monsoon circulation in East China. The most important contributor to the trend in effective precipitation depends upon the region concerned.  相似文献   

The Influences of NAO and the Hudson Bay sea-ice on the climate of eastern Canada     

Minwei Qian  Colin Jones  Rene Laprise  Daniel Caya 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):169-182

Sea-ice cover over the Hudson Bay (HB) exhibits large variability in the freeze-up season normally starting in November. Its influence on the climate over eastern Canada has been studied with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) in three steps. First, a 30-year continuous simulation from 1970 to 1999 was performed as a control run to evaluate the simulated climate variability over eastern Canada, in particularly variability associated with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Then, 50 additional 1 month experiments were performed with modified sea-surface conditions prescribed over the HB. These integrations allowed us to quantify the contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies versus large scale NAO atmospheric variability (as defined by prescribed lateral boundary conditions) in inducing climate variability over eastern Canada. Results show that the NAO is the dominant factor controlling climate variability over eastern Canada. The contribution of HB sea-ice anomalies is significant only in the immediate coastal region. Under the influence of different phases of NAO, HB sea-ice anomalies do co-vary with temperature and precipitation anomalies downstream of the HB over eastern Canada. The ultimate cause of this co-variability is NAO variability which forces variability in both HB sea-ice cover as well as temperature/precipitation over eastern Canada.  相似文献   

北方草地生态气象综合监测预测技术及其应     

钱拴  毛留喜  侯英雨  吴门新  王良宇 《气象》2008,34(11):62-68

近几十年来中国90%以上的草地出现退化现象,特别是内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆、青海、西藏等地区,草地退化严重,国家急需掌握气象条件对草地植被生长的影响,了解草地生产力、牲畜承载力以及生态质量状况.为此,在实时获取北方草地气温、降水量、日照时数等气象要素和气象卫星植被指数以及产草量观测资料的基础上,应用模糊数学、集合运算、统计分析等多种方法和"3S"手段,建立了北方草地植被生长气象条件优劣评价、产草量和载畜量预测、草地生态质量监测等模型.2005年以来,利用这些模型逐年评价了气象条件对草地植被生长的优劣影响、预测产草量和载畜量、监测草地生态质量优劣,获得了良好的服务效益.北方草地2007年生态气象监测预测结果表明:所建模型综合了多种资料和技术优势,结果符合实际;形成的综合监测预测技术可为国家保护和恢复草地生态环境提供科学依据.  相似文献