基于BP人工神经网络的鹰潭市PM2.5和PM10浓度预测模型          下载免费PDF全文

刘懿枢  戴熙敏  齐永胜 《气象与减灾研究》2020,43(2):123-129

利用2015—2019年鹰潭市5个大气成分监测站数据和气象站地面观测数据,运用主成分分析法,提取气象要素、气体污染物对PM2.5和PM10浓度影响的主要成分,调整BP人工神经网络的隐藏层个数和隐藏层节点数,构建基于BP人工神经网络的鹰潭市PM2.5和PM10浓度预测模型。结果表明：1） 气象要素中,共提取3个影响PM2.5、PM10浓度的主成分,分别为相对湿度、降水,气温、气压和风速,其中湿度、气温、风速与PM2.5、PM10浓度显著相关。2） 气体污染物中,共提取2个主成分,分别为SO2、NO2和O3,其中NO2、SO2与PM2.5、PM10浓度显著相关。3） 所建立的PM2.5、PM10浓度逐小时预测模型在20 h内预测性能良好,预测准确率分别为88%、86%,逐日预测模型在5 d内的预测性能良好,预测准确率分别为94%、92%,准确率较高,具有良好的预报性能。  相似文献   

Sound velocities of Na0.4Mg0.6Al1.6Si0.4O4 NAL and CF phases to 73 GPa determined by Brillouin scattering method     

Lidong Dai  Yuki Kudo  Kei Hirose  Motohiko Murakami  Yuki Asahara  Haruka Ozawa  Yasuo Ohishi  Naohisa Hirao 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2013,40(3):195-201

The sound velocities of two aluminum-rich phases in the lower mantle, hexagonal new Al-rich phase (NAL) and its corresponding high-pressure polymorph orthorhombic Ca-ferrite-type phase (CF), were determined with the Brillouin scattering method in a pressure range from 9 to 73 GPa at room temperature. Both NAL and CF samples have identical chemical composition of Na_0.4Mg_0.6Al_1.6Si_0.4O₄ (40 % NaAlSiO₄–60 % MgAl₂O₄). Infrared laser annealing in the diamond anvil cell was performed to minimize the stress state of the sample and obtain the high-quality Brillouin spectra. The results show shear modulus at zero pressure G ₀ = 121.960 ± 0.087 GPa and its pressure derivative G’ = 1.961 ± 0.009 for the NAL phase, and G ₀ = 129.653 ± 0.059 GPa and G’ = 2.340 ± 0.004 for the CF phase. The zero-pressure shear velocities of the NAL and CF phases are obtained to be 5.601 ± 0.005 km/sec and 5.741 ± 0.001 km/sec, respectively. We also found that shear velocity increases by 2.5 % upon phase transition from NAL to CF at around 40 GPa.  相似文献   

Static and Dynamic Flexural Strength Anisotropy of Barre Granite   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

F. Dai  K. Xia  J. P. Zuo  R. Zhang  N. W. Xu 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2013,46(6):1589-1602

Granite exhibits anisotropy due to pre-existing microcracks under tectonic loadings; and the mechanical property anisotropy such as flexural/tensile strength is vital to many rock engineering applications. In this paper, Barre Granite is studied to understand the flexural strength anisotropy under a wide range of loading rates using newly proposed semi-circular bend tests. Static tests are conducted with a MTS hydraulic servo-control testing machine and dynamic tests with a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) system. Six samples groups are fabricated with respect to the three principle directions of Barre granite. Pulse shaping technique is used in all dynamic SHPB tests to facilitate dynamic stress equilibrium. Finite element method is utilized to build up equations calculating the flexural tensile strength. For samples in the same orientation group, a loading rate dependence of the flexural tensile strength is observed. The measured flexural tensile strength is higher than the tensile strength measured using Brazilian disc method at given loading rate and this scenario has been rationalized using a non-local failure theory. The flexural tensile strength anisotropy features obvious dependence on the loading rates, the higher the loading rate, the less the anisotropy and this phenomenon may be explained considering the interaction of the preferentially oriented microcracks.  相似文献   

Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Xinchuang Xu  Quansheng Ge  Jingyun Zheng  Erfu Dai  Xuezhen Zhang  Shanfeng He  Guangxu Liu 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):1257-1272

Drought, a frequent environmental disaster in the monsoon region of east China, significantly affects the agricultural economy. In recent years, researchers have emphasised drought risk management. This paper presents a preliminary method to analyse the risk of agricultural drought with regard to the loss of three main crops in individual prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. In this study, the agricultural drought risk is assessed by developing the index of consecutive rainless days and establishing loss rate curves based on the historical drought data from 1995 to 2008. The results show that the North China is seriously affected by drought hazard. Northeast China is the most sensitive to drought due to its large sown crop areas and weak irrigation. Approximately 11 % of the cities are in the extreme risk category; this category includes 26 % of the cultivated land area and 11 % of the total crop yields in the region. Twenty-three per cent of the cities, accounting for 28.5 % of the total cultivated land area and 26.4 % of the crop yields of the study area, are in high-risk areas, and 77 % of the cities with high and extreme risk levels are distributed in North and Northeast China. Moreover, 64 % of the cities in the monsoon region of East China are in moderate- and low-risk levels. These cities are primarily located south of the Yangtze River. In conclusion, minimising the risk of agricultural drought must be emphasised in northern China because of the high level of risk.  相似文献   

Numerical simulation of flow processes in liquefied soils using a soil–water-coupled smoothed particle hydrodynamics method     

Yu Huang  Weijie Zhang  Zili Dai  Qiang Xu 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):809-827

Liquefaction can result in the damage or collapse of structures during an earthquake and can therefore be a great threat to life and property. Many site investigations of liquefaction disasters are needed to study the large-scale deformation and flow mechanisms of liquefied soils that can be used for performance assessments and infrastructure improvement. To overcome the disadvantages of traditional flow analysis methods for liquefied soils, a soil–water-coupled smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) modeling method was developed to analyze flow in liquefied soils. In the proposed SPH method, water and soil were simulated as different layers, while permeability, porosity, and interaction forces could be combined to model water-saturated porous media. A simple shear test was simulated using the SPH method with an elastic model to verify its application to solid phase materials. Subsequently, the applicability of the proposed SPH modeling method to the simulation of interaction forces between water and soil was verified by a falling-head permeability test. The coupled SPH method produced good simulations for both the simple shear and falling-head permeability tests. Using a fit-for-purpose experimental apparatus, a physical flow model test of liquefied sand has been designed and conducted. To complement the physical test, a numerical simulation has been undertaken based on the soil–water-coupled SPH method. The numerical results correspond well with the physical model test results in observed configurations and velocity vectors. An embankment failure in northern Sweden was selected so that the application of the soil–water-coupled SPH method could be extended to an actual example of liquefaction. The coupled SPH method simulated the embankment failure with the site investigation well. They have also estimated horizontal displacements and velocities, which can be used to greatly improve the seismic safety of structures.  相似文献   

白令海和西北冰洋表层沉积物磁化率特征初步研究     

汪卫国  戴霜  陈莉莉  吴日升  余兴光 《海洋学报》2014,36(9):121-131

为了准确解释环境磁学参数记录的极地古气候环境变化信息,本研究对白令海和西北冰洋61个站位的表层沉积物进行了高、低频质量磁化率(χ)、非磁滞磁化率(χARM)和磁化率-温度(k-T)分析,以探明该区沉积物中磁性矿物的种类、来源与搬运路径。结果显示,样品的χ具有明显的地域分布特征。白令海的χ值整体高于楚科奇海,并在育空河口外侧和圣劳伦斯岛南侧较高,向北和向西南方向逐渐减小。楚科奇海中东部陆架上表层沉积χ值高于阿拉斯加沿岸,而西北冰洋深海平原和洋脊区的χ值最低。χARM的变化趋势与质量磁化率相似,但频率磁化率的变化趋势与质量磁化率正好相反。k-T分析结果显示阿留申海盆沉积物中的铁磁性矿物以磁赤铁矿占主导,白令海陆架育空河口外侧和圣劳伦斯岛南北两侧为磁铁矿,白令海陆架西部和楚科奇海陆架中东部为磁赤铁矿和磁铁矿,楚科奇海阿拉斯加沿岸为黄铁矿,而西北冰洋陆坡、深海平原和洋脊区为胶黄铁矿和黄铁矿,但高纬度区沉积物中的胶黄铁矿含量更高。沉积物中磁性矿物的区域性分布受沉积物来源、洋流和底质环境等因素的控制。白令海和楚科奇海陆架磁赤铁矿来源于亚洲大陆,白令海陆架东部的磁铁矿来自育空河流域,阿拉斯加沿岸沉积物中的黄铁矿,应为阿拉斯加西北部陆源侵蚀来源的或早期成岩作用形成的,西北冰洋深海盆区的胶黄铁矿,为自生成因的。  相似文献   

Assessment of parental contribution and effective population size from a 3×3 diallel cross of clam Meretrix meretrix     

代平  王鸿霞  刘保忠 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(2):306-315

Unbalanced parental contribution and small effective population size(N e)are common issues during the artifi cial breeding of marine bivalves.The impact of hatchery-spawning practices on parental contribution,effective population size,the N e/N ratio,and genetic diversity are largely unknown.To address this,we conducted a parentage analysis on a complete 3×3 diallel cross of clam M eretrix meretrix using eight microsatellite markers.The genetic diversity of the parents was higher than that of their respective offspring in most crosses(8/9).Sires or dams from the same family contributed unequally to the pool of offspring from a particular cross,and the same parent clam exhibited large variation in parental contribution among different crosses.The variance in male contribution was higher than that of the female contribution in most crosses,suggesting that male contribution was more skewed than for females.The N e/N ratio for nine crosses ranged from 0.58 to 0.86.There was no linear relationship between the sex ratio and the N e/N ratio(P0.05).Moreover,a sex ratio closer to one-to-one does not necessarily mean a larger effective population size.A solution to small effective population size in commercial breeding programs is increasing broodstock numbers and attempting to maintain a balanced sex ratio.  相似文献   

Acute toxicity of organochlorine insecticide endosulfan to the giant freshwater prawn Macrobrochium rosenbergii     

戴习林  熊昭娣  谢剑  丁福江 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2014,32(1):111-119

Endosulfan, an organochlorine pesticide, is highly toxic and effective at controlling pests in agriculture, horticulture, and public health programs. In this study, static bioassays were used to evaluate the toxicity of endosulfan to freshwater prawns( Macrobrachium rosenbergii) of various lengths(1.5±0.03,4±0.08, and 7±0.06 cm). Additionally, the activities of peroxidase(POD), acid phosphatase(ACP),alkaline phosphatase, acetylcholinesterase(AChE), and Na + /K +-ATPase were analyzed to refl ect the effects of endosulfan exposure. The 96 h LC 50 of endosulfan for prawns 1.5, 4, and 7 cm long were 1.86, 4.53,and 6.09μg/L, respectively, improved tolerance to endosulfan with growth. The POD activities of test organisms exposed to low concentrations of endosulfan were inhibited, indicating the presence of oxygen damaged tissue. Moreover, a notable decrease in AChE activity was observed due to overstimulation of neurotransmission, which might result in abnormal behavior. The effect caused by endosulfan on phosphatase production in the hepatopancreas of prawns 1.5, 4, and 7 cm long was different because the ability of nonspecifi c immune regulation increased with growth. The 96 h LC 50 values obtained in this study could be used in the formulation of water-quality criteria in China. Moreover, the changes in enzymes activities of M. rosenbergii under stress of endosulfan could be applied in the establishment of early warning indicators for bio-safety.  相似文献   

EnKF中误差协方差优化方法及在资料同化中应用   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

梁晓  郑小谷  戴永久  师春香 《应用气象学报》2014,25(4):397-405

集合卡尔曼滤波 (the Ensemble Kalman Filter,简称EnKF) 中将预报集合的统计协方差作为预报误差协方差,但该估计可能严重偏离真实的预报误差协方差,影响同化精度。基于极大似然估计理论,发展了一种优化预报误差协方差矩阵的实时膨胀方法,即MLE (the Maximum Likelihood Estimation) 方法。利用蒙古国基准站Delgertsgot (简称DGS站) 观测资料,基于EnKF方法和MLE方法,在通用陆面模式 (the Common Land Model,简称CoLM) 中同化了地表温度和10 cm土壤温度观测资料,建立了土壤温度同化系统。结果表明:MLE方法对地表温度和各层土壤温度 (尤其深层土壤温度) 的估计比EnKF方法准确。考虑到浅层和深层土壤温度的差别,在实施MLE方法时对浅层和深层土壤温度采用了不同的膨胀因子。对比膨胀因子为单一标量时的结果,多因子膨胀能缓解深层土壤温度的不合理膨胀,改善同化效果。  相似文献   

Study on Unloading Creep Characteristics of the Soil and Application of the Stress-Dependent Creep Model in Suction Caisson Foundation     

ZHU Wen-bo  DAI Guo-liang  GONG Wei-ming  ZHAO Xue-liang 《中国海洋工程》2022,36(1):123-132

As the anchoring foundation of the tension leg platform(TLP), suction caisson foundation is subjected to the longterm vertical pullout loads. But there are few studies on the mechanism of the unloading creep of soft clay and longterm uplift bearing capacity of suction caisson foundations. To address this problem, unloading creep tests of soft clay were carried out to analyze the strain development with time under different confining pressures. The test results show that the creep curve rapidly d...  相似文献