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两种气候变化情景下中国未来的粮食供给 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
全球温室气体排放导致的全球温度的上升一直是国际社会关注的重点问题之一。利用IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)SRES(排放情景特别报告)的A2(中-高)和B2(中-低)温室气体排放情景,结合区域气候模式PRECIS和CERES作物模型模拟和分析了未来不同的温室气体排放情景下,中国未来2020年、2050年和2080年各个时段粮食的供需情景,并结合未来社会经济的发展分析了气候变化对未来粮食供求的影响,探讨了不同的气候变化程度对未来中国粮食供应的影响。结果表明:如果不考虑CO2的肥效作用,未来我国三种主要粮食作物(小麦、水稻和玉米)均以减产为主,灌溉可以部分地减少减产幅度,如果单考虑CO2的肥效作用,三种作物的产量变化以增产为主。若保持959/6的粮食自给率,人口按照SRESA2和B2情景增长,到2030年的技术进步可使粮食年单产递增0.79/6以上,维持目前的种植比例和种植面积,B2情景下,气候变化对我国的粮食安全问题将不会构成威胁,而A2情景下,气候变化将会对我国可持续发展的粮食安全造成威胁。 相似文献
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通过调查江苏省全球环境基金项目区农户和专家的投入产出,使用成本效益分析方法和IPCC推荐的温室气体估算方法评估比较了3种种植方式(人工插秧、机械插秧和直播)的水稻在麦稻轮作复种“两晚”模式(水稻晚收, 小麦晚播)下的社会、经济和生态效益。结果表明:水稻直播和机械插秧可以节省更多劳动力;农业机械燃油、施用化肥、稻田淹水等农作措施导致了大量人为温室气体排放;水稻种植方式为人工插秧的麦稻轮作模式能取得最优的经济和生态效益;“两晚”模式实施的关键是适时地利用近年来增加的农业气候资源。水稻人工插秧与麦稻“两晚”相配合的种植模式是减缓和适应气候变化的较优选择。 相似文献
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未来气候情景下中国生态地理区域系统温度带的北移(英文) 总被引:6,自引:3,他引:3
Despite the well-documented effects of global climate change on terrestrial species' ranges,eco-geographical regions as the regional scale of ecosystems have been poorly studied especially in China with diverse climate and ecosystems.Here we analyse the shift of temperature zones in eco-geographical study over China using projected future climate scenario.Projected climate data with high resolution during 1961-2080 were simulated using regional climate model of PRECIS.The number of days with mean daily temperature above 10℃ and the mean temperature of January are usually regarded as the principal criteria to indicate temperature zones,which are sensitive to climate change.Shifts due to future climate change were calculated by comparing the latitude of grid cells for the future borderline of one temperature zone with that for baseline period(1961-1990).Results indicated that the ranges of Tropical,Subtropical,Warm Temperate and Plateau Temperate Zones would be enlarged and the ranges of Cold Temperate,Temperate and Plateau Sub-cold Zones would be reduced.Cold Temperate Zone would probably disappear at late this century.North borderlines of temperature zones would shift northward under projected future climate change,especially in East China.Farthest shifts of the north boundaries of Plateau Temperate,Subtropical and Warm Temperate Zones would be 3.1°,5.3° and 6.6° latitude respectively.Moreover,northward shift would be more notably in northern China as future temperature increased. 相似文献