湖北省天空云量的特征分析及其预报   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

胡江林  李劲 《湖北气象》2000,(2):15-17

利用１９９６～１９９８年的历史气象资料统计了湖北省天空云量,接着分析了天空云量与高空物理量的关系,在此基础上使用ＭＯＳ方法建立了天空云量的预报模型。经１９９９年９～１１月试验,其初步结果表明,该预报模型可较好地反映云量变化的趋势,对阴天和晴天之间转变的趋势预报较为正确,但其在应用时仍需加强订正工作。  相似文献   

加密MAPS模式在三峡坝区夏季降水预报中的应用     

胡江林  崔春光  王志斌 《气象》2000,26(8):19-21

在简介加密ＭＡＰＳ模式的基础上,分析了该模式在１９９９年夏季对三峡坝区降水的预报效果,结果显示该模式对三峡单站及周围地区的短期强降水预报有较好的预报能力。  相似文献   

VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS     

王雨  沈学顺  陈德辉 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2012,18(4):537-542

The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over mainland China and its associated rainfall is more than the average. This paper focuses on the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) of landfall TC precipitation over China in 2009. The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) models are compared. Although the schemes of physical processes, the data assimilation system and the dynamic frame are entirely different for the two models, the results of forecast verification are similar to each other for TC rainfall and track except for TC Goni. In this paper, a day with daily rainfall amount greater than 50 mm was selected as a storm rain day when there was a TC affecting the mainland. There are 32 storm rain days related to the landing of typhoons and tropical depressions. The rainfall forecast verification methods of National Meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA are selected to verify the models’ rainfall forecast. Observational precipitation analyses related to TCs in 2009 indicate a U-shape spatial distribution in China. It is found that the rain belt forecasted by the two models within 60 hours shows good agreement with observations, both in the location and the maximum rainfall center. Beyond 3 days, the forecasted rainfall belt shifts northward on average, and the rainfall amount of the model forecasts becomes under-predicted. The rainfall intensity of CMA model forecast is more reasonable than that of JMA model. For heavy rain, the JMA model made more missing forecasts. The TC rainfall is verified in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Hainan where rainfall amount related to TCs is relatively larger than in other regions. The results indicate that the model forecast for Guangdong and Guangxi is more skillful than that for Hainan. The rainfall forecast for Hainan remains difficult for the models because of insufficient observation data and special tropical ocean climate.  相似文献   

GRAPES伴随模式底层数据栈优化   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

任迪生  沈学顺  薛纪善  张林  赵文涛 《应用气象学报》2011,22(3):362-366

GRAPES伴随模式是其四维变分同化系统的核心组成部分。由于其计算过程复杂,临时数据较多,实现中采用断点存储策略可以有效减少伴随模式的计算时间和存储空间。极限断点存储策略是在单积分步内以全存储策略实现为基础,将其中部分基态以计算代替的一种类断点存储策略。在该策略的支持下,需要一种新的数据管理结构,来保证程序的正确运行。文章提出了在已有栈基础上优化的新数据存储管理方式——嵌套多链栈,这种结构可有效满足使用极限断点存储技术实现GRAPES伴随模式的初态管理需求。试验表明:相比断点存储技术,在总内存增加不超过30%的情况下可使GRAPES的运行效率提高1倍。  相似文献   

基于总能量模的GRAPES全球模式奇异向量扰动研究     

刘永柱  沈学顺  李晓莉 《气象学报》2013,71(3):517-526

以发展基于奇异向量技术为初值扰动的GRAPES全球集合预报系统为目的,在GRAPES模式及其干动力框架下的切线性、伴随模式基础上开展了以总能量模为权重算子的奇异向量计算技术研究,建立奇异向量的计算求解模块,并通过奇异向量检验方法和切线性近似方法验证了奇异向量求解的正确性.通过对中高纬度的GRAPES奇异向量水平结构的线性演变分析,证实了在最优时间间隔内GRAPES奇异向量能够快速增长,并能描述中高纬度大气的斜压不稳定特征.分析在初始时刻和最优化时间间隔时刻的GRAPES奇异向量总能量及其分量(动能和势能)的垂直分布特征,发现在中高纬度区域,GRAPES奇异向量能够描述对流层不同层次的斜压不稳定增长特征.  相似文献   

Effects of terrain-following vertical coordinates on high-resolution NWP simulations   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

李超  陈德辉  李兴良  胡江林 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2015,29(3):432-445

With increasing resolution in numerical weather prediction(NWP)models,the model topography can be described with finer resolution and includes steeper slopes.Consequently,negative effects of the traditional terrain-following vertical coordinate on high-resolution numerical simulations become more distinct due to larger errors in the pressure gradient force(PGF)calculation and associated distortions of the gravity wave along the coordinate surface.A series of numerical experiments have been conducted in this study,including idealized test cases of gravity wave simulation over a complex mountain,error analysis of the PGP estimation over a real topography,and a suite of real-data test cases.The GRAPES-Meso model is utilized with four different coordinates,i.e.,the traditional terrain-following vertical coordinate proposed by Gal-Chen and Somerville(hereinafter referred to as the Gal.C.S coordinate),the one-scale smoothed level(SLEVE1),the two-scale smoothed level(SLEVE2),and the COSINE(COS)coordinates.The results of the gravity wave simulation indicate that the GRAPES-Meso model generally can reproduce the mountain-induced gravity waves,which are consistent with the analytic solution.However,the shapes,vertical structures,and intensities of the waves are better simulated with the SLEVE2 coordinate than with the other three coordinates.The model with the COS coordinate also performs well,except at lower levels where it is not as effective as the SLEVE2 coordinate in suppressing the PGF errors.In contrast,the gravity waves simulated in both the Gal.C.S and SLEVE1 coordinates are relatively distorted.The estimated PGF errors in a rest atmosphere over the real complex topography are much smaller(even disappear at the middle and upper levels)in the GRAPES-Meso model using the SLEVE2 and COS coordinates than those using the Gal.C.S and SLEVE1 coordinates.The results of the real-data test cases conducted over a one-month period suggest that the three modified vertical coordinates(SLEVE1,SLEVE2,and COS coordinates)give better results than the traditional Gal.C.S coordinate in terms of forecasting bias and root mean square error,and forecasting anomaly correlation coefficients.In conclusion,the SLEVE2 coordinate is proved to be the best option for the GRAPES-Meso model.  相似文献   

湖北省短期温度预报的神经网络方法应用研究     

胡江林  李才媛  李劲 《湖北气象》2000,(2):4-7

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的５０ｈＰａ高度场、８５０ｈＰａ温度场,海平面气压场和地面报文资料,采用人工神经网络方法建立了湖北省７６个县（市）气象台站短期最高和最低温度的预报模型。经１９９９年９～１１月试验发现,该模型预报效果较好,特别是在气温较大的强冷空气爆发过程中的预报效果比一般线性预报方法更佳。  相似文献   

高阶正定守恒的中心约束多矩有限体积平流模式     

舒谦  唐杰  陈春刚  肖锋  沈学顺  周立隆  李泽椿  朱克云  李兴良 《气象学报》2020,78(4):665-678

采用新的均匀三点中心约束多矩有限体积方法（3-point Multi-moment Constrained finite-Volume scheme for Uniform Points with Center Constraints, MCV3_UPCC）,发展了一个三阶正定守恒的平流模式。三点多矩有限体积方法在单网格内定义等距的3个自由度,采用多矩约束条件并通过控制方程获得时间演变方程。新的三点中心约束多矩方法能在单网格内采用等距的3个点值及中心一阶、二阶导数作为约束条件进行空间4次多项式数值重构,获得3个自由度的时间演变方程;所构建的新数值方案具有三阶精度,边界通量连续性保证了其数值严格守恒。为了抑制该方法的非物理数值振荡,引入了边界保型限制器技术,它能够把数值解控制在既定物理场最小值（最小值为0时则保持数值正定）与最大值之间。数值试验表明新发展的三阶平流模式具有良好的计算精度,能够严格保持数值解的正定性和守恒性,同其他高精度平流模式相当,在实际大气模式水汽等平流输送应用中具备良好的发展潜力。   相似文献   

中国数值天气预报的自主创新发展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

沈学顺  王建捷  李泽椿  陈德辉  龚建东 《气象学报》2020,78(3):451-476

数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾、减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在理论、方法和数值模式研究方面取得了有广泛国际影响的研究成果。在回顾新中国数值天气预报自主创新研究成果的基础上,重点对GRAPES（Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System）半隐式半拉格朗日格点模式与物理过程的研发和业务应用的状况以及所取得的重要科学进展进行了综述。近年来,通过自主研发建立了中国数值天气预报业务体系—GRAPES体系。首次以自主技术实现了从区域3—10 km到全球25—50 km分辨率的确定性预报和集合预报系统,并在模式动力框架、四维变分同化和卫星资料同化技术等方面有所突破,建立了大气化学数值天气预报、台风数值预报和海浪预报等系统。自主研发的数值天气预报体系的建立是长期坚持既定科学技术方向以及研究和业务紧密结合、经验不断积累的结果,是中国自主发展数值天气预报技术的重要起点。   相似文献   

预估-校正的半隐式半拉格朗日时间积分方案及其在CMA-GFS模式中的应用     

张红亮  沈学顺  苏勇 《气象学报》2022,80(2):280-288

CMA-GFS采用的是传统的二时间层半隐式半拉格朗日时间积分方案(SISL).拉格朗日平流速度和非线性项需要采用时间外插进行计算,在急流轴附近等梯度大值区会造成计算不稳定,甚至积分中断现象.文中通过构造预估-校正半隐式半拉格朗日时间积分方案(SISL/P-C),以减少时间外插的影响;半隐式系数由原来的0.72减小到0....  相似文献