Comparing Loss Estimation with Observed Damage in a Zone of Ground Failure: A Study of the 1999 Kocaeli Earthquake in Turkey     

J.?F.?Bird  J.?J.?BommerEmail author  J.?D.?Bray  R.?Sancio  R.?J.?S.?Spence 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2004,2(3):329-360

The building losses in Adapazari following the 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake are estimated for both ground-shaking and ground-failure induced damage and the predictions compared with field observations. The ground-shaking damage is estimated using the capacity spectrum approach and accommodating the results of a previously published calibration of this model. These results, which do not incorporate ground-failure damage, are compared to the observed damage patterns in Adapazari to illustrate the significance of not including the more complex ground failure component in a loss model for a region of high liquefaction susceptibility. A preliminary estimation of ground-failure-induced damage is then presented based upon the HAZUS (FEMA, 2003) default methodology. The benefits of these additional calculations to the overall loss model are assessed to provide some quantitative decision-making guidance for those producing loss estimation models. The findings suggest that the benefits of specifically incorporating ground failure into a loss model only start to be obtained if a detailed approach using in situ geotechnical data as well as adequate representation of building foundations is adopted. Otherwise, the additional input data required is not commensurate with the small potential refinement in the estimated losses, particularly considering the compounded uncertainties associated with the simplified approach.  相似文献   

The Theory of Surface Wave Diffraction by Symmetric Crustal Discontinuities     

Julius Kane  John Spence 《Geophysical Journal International》1965,9(5):423-437

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Recovery of polluted ecosystems: the case for long-term studies   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Hawkins SJ  Gibbs PE  Pope ND  Burt GR  Chesman BS  Bray S  Proud SV  Spence SK  Southward AJ  Langston WJ 《Marine environmental research》2002,54(3-5):215-222

Recovery of marine ecosystems from pollution has tended to receive less attention than the study of new or continuing impacts, but such studies are important in charting recovery from acute incidents and following legislation to deal with chronic contamination. Recovery is inevitably a long-term process, and where such studies have been made they are often too short-lived. Interest quickly wanes following an acute incident and governmental bodies rapidly switch to new legislative priorities for chronic inputs. We review three case studies: recovery of dogwhelk populations after local extinction by tributyl tin leachates from anti-fouling paints; recovery of rocky shore communities from oil spills; and recovery of estuarine ecosystems from industrial and urban development. We then make some generalisations about recovery processes before making a plea for long-term studies of polluted areas.  相似文献   

The Mollusc Thais haemastoma -An Exhibitor of 'Imposex' and Potential Biological Indicator of Tributyltin Pollution     

S.K. Spence    S.J. Hawkins  R.S. Santos 《Marine Ecology》1990,11(2):147-156

Abstract. In the Azores the gastropod Thais haemastoma shows varying degrees of imposex, the induction of male sex characters in the female. It is inferred that imposex in T. haemastoma is caused by tributyltin (TBT) associated with boats using organotin-based antifouling paints. The two indices - relative penis size and vas deferens sequence - employed previously for Nucella lapillus , were used without alteration. T. haemastoma is only the third species reported as exhibiting 'effective sterilisation' of the female. Unlike Nucella lapillus, T. haemastoma has a planktonic larva, allowing populations to be sustained even when local TBT pollution is high. This makes T. haemastoma potentially a better indicator species, as monitored populations can be maintained by the influx of larvae. T. haemastoma may thus provide a cheap method of assessing the extent of TBT contamination in warm waters, particularly in the Mediterranean and Atlantic Islands. Preliminary examination of material from a marina in Spain showed a high incidence of 'sterile' animals.  相似文献   

Interhemispheric observations of impulsive nitrate enhancements associated with the four large ground-level solar cosmic ray events (1940–1950)     

L. Kepko  H. Spence  D.F. Smart  M.A. Shea 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(17-18):1840-1845

We present a compelling similarity of impulsive nitrate enhancements observed in polar ice from the northern and southern hemispheres. This analysis concentrates on the period 1940–1950, during which time the first four recorded solar cosmic ray ground-level enhancements (GLEs) occurred. GLEs are strong solar proton events. We show that large and sudden enhancements in the nitrate records from both hemispheres were observed within weeks following the recorded solar cosmic ray ground-level event. The observation of impulsive nitrate enhancements simultaneously in both hemispheres shortly after a large fluence solar proton event is strong evidence in support of a causal connection and argues strongly for rapid transport of atmospheric nitrates generated through the polar atmosphere by energetic solar proton events.  相似文献   

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach     

P.J. Baxter  W.P. Aspinall  A. Neri  G. Zuccaro  R.J.S. Spence  R. Cioni  G. Woo 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.  相似文献   

Estimating building exposure and impact to volcanic hazards in Icod de los Vinos,Tenerife (Canary Islands)     

J. Marti  R. Spence  E. Calogero  A. Ordoñez  A. Felpeto  P. Baxter 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Principal and subsidiary building structure characteristics and their distribution have been inventoried in Icod, Tenerife (Canary Islands) and used to evaluate the vulnerability of individual buildings to three volcanic hazards: tephra fallout, volcanogenic earthquakes and pyroclastic flows. The procedures described in this paper represent a methodological framework for a comprehensive survey of all the buildings at risk in the area around the Teide volcano in Tenerife. Such a methodology would need to be implemented for the completion of a comprehensive risk assessment for the populations under threat of explosive eruptions in this area. The information presented in the paper is a sample of the necessary data required for the impact estimation and risk assessment exercises that would need to be carried out by emergency managers, local authorities and those responsible for recovery and repair in the event of a volcanic eruption. The data shows there are micro variations in building stock characteristics that would influence the likely impact of an eruption in the area. As an example of the use of this methodology for vulnerability assessment, we have applied a deterministic simulation model of a volcanic eruption from Teide volcano and its associated ash fallout which, when combined with the vulnerability data collected, allows us to obtain the vulnerability map of the studied area. This map is obtained by performing spatial analysis with a Geographical Information System (GIS). This vulnerability analysis is included in the framework of an automatic information system specifically developed for hazard assessment and risk management on Tenerife, but which can be also applied to other volcanic areas. The work presented is part of the EU-funded EXPLORIS project (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).  相似文献   

The Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System (GEVES): an approach for earthquake risk assessment for insurance applications   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Robin Spence  Emily So  Sarah Jenny  Hervé Castella  Michael Ewald  Edmund Booth 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2008,6(3):463-483

For the insurance and reinsurance industries, earthquake loss estimation is crucial not only to adequately price its product but also to manage the accumulation risk in the face of the ever-increasing exposure in highly seismic regions. Changes in the built environment and a continuously evolving earthquake science make it a necessity for the industry to constantly refine earthquake loss estimation models. In particular, it has been recognized for a long time that the vulnerability of buildings to ground shaking is a key parameter in any earthquake risk model. Current methods tend either to rely on the limited historical damage and loss data or on the numerical simulation of the response of individual buildings to the ground-shaking produced by earthquakes. Although both methods have their advantages and pitfalls, we are proposing here a simple solution, using transparent input data, that can be realistically used for the needs of the insurance and reinsurance industry, whether detailed information about the insured structures is available or not. The resulting product is known as GEVES (Global Earthquake Vulnerability Estimation System). It is primarily intended for evaluating the mean damage ratio (MDR) suffered by a portfolio of buildings classified by use, under the action of a given earthquake scenario (i.e. an earthquake of given size at a given distance from the portfolio of buildings). A key assumption was that macroseismic intensity rather than spectral displacement would be the basis of loss estimation. The paper describes the model with emphasis on its structure and the justification for the assumptions made. In addition to a new set of earthquake vulnerability functions, the paper also provides recommendations on some aspects of the earthquake hazard, in particular about how to define macroseismic intensity at the site of interest, for a given earthquake scenario. This paper also discusses validation of the GEVES model against calculated vulnerability approaches, and the treatment of uncertainty within the model.  相似文献   

The impact of climatic variability and change in the hydroclimatology of Lake Winnipeg watershed     

Eghbal Ehsanzadeh  Garth van der Kamp  Christopher Spence 《水文研究》2012,26(18):2802-2813

The hydroclimatology of prairie‐dominated portions of the Lake Winnipeg watershed was investigated to determine the possible presence of trends and shifts in variables that may influence the streamflow regimes and water quality of Lake Winnipeg. The total annual streamflow, precipitation, runoff ratio and daily maximum streamflow in the two major tributaries of the Assiniboine River and Red River were analysed for a range of nonstationary behaviours. Each of these rivers has been gauged for more than 90 years. The methods used included a nonparametric Mann–Kendall test modified to account for diverse memory properties (i.e. short term versus long term) and a Bayesian change point detection model to identify possible segments of time series with inconsistent nonstationary behaviour. Although there is no evidence of statistically significant trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Assiniboine River watershed, a shift‐type nonstationarity in annual runoff and runoff ratio was observed in this area, which is manifested in the form of a sequence of wet and dry spells during the last century. Precipitation and runoff metrics in the American portion of the study area (i.e. Red River watershed) were characterised with both gradual and abrupt changes with an extremely increasing rate of streamflow beyond that of intensified precipitation. The nonproportional watershed runoff response is attributed to the dynamic nature of contributing areas that, together with the semiarid climate, leads to sudden changes of streamflow due to major or even some times minor changes in climate inputs. It is evident that streamflow in the depression‐dominated landscapes of the semiarid glaciated plains of North America is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to minor climate variability and change. This study provides valuable insights into the highly complex precipitation–runoff relationship in depression‐dominated landscapes and could have important implications for water management in this part of North America and comparable regions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Erratum to: The earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-3α. Part I: description and performance for present-day conditions     

Marisa Montoya  Alexa Griesel  Anders Levermann  Juliette Mignot  Matthias Hofmann  Andrey Ganopolski  Stefan Rahmstorf 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(1):151-151

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