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11.
The orbital period variation of the oEA system Y Leo is revised by taking into account new times of minimum light covering an extended time base of 101.8 yr. A multiperiodic ephemeris was finally established by carefully approaching the problem of periodicity detection for the considered periodic components. A method relying on Monte Carlo simulations was applied. The problem of the long-term behaviour of the OC curve was taken into account using parabolic, and parabolic + periodic ephemerides. The physical interpretation of the mathematical models describing both long- and short-term behaviour of the OC curve was performed by considering different mechanisms: the conservative mass transfer, the light-time effect, and the orbital period modulation through the cyclic magnetic activity of the late spectral type secondary component in the system. The consequences of these interpretations are rather intriguing and emphasize the need of new and detailed observational studies on Y Leo.  相似文献   
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European researchers and seismic networks are active in developing new approaches to earthquake early warning (EEW), implementing and operating test EEW systems, and in some cases, offering operational EEW to end users. We present the key recent developments in EEW research in Europe, describe the networks and regions where EEW is currently in testing or development, and highlight the two systems in Turkey and Romania that currently provide operational systems to a limited set of end users.  相似文献   
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The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied: (1) adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson's criteria, (2) computation of the structure's response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements (IM), and (3) construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ) as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.  相似文献   
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This article is intended to explain the snow avalanche occurrence, as a natural phenomenon directly influenced by the local natural conditions, for the well-delimited area represented by the Piatra Mica massif, belonging to the Piatra Craiului mountain range (southern Carpathians). In this respect, depending on the factors that may trigger or encourage the avalanches, some vulnerable areas with avalanche occurring conditions have been identified, based on the analysis of the relationships among the factors controlling the avalanche vulnerability in the study area. These factors are mainly represented by the slope aspect, which induces from the very beginning some specific features for each type of slope (north-, east-, south and west-facing slopes), the geological structure, slope gradient and topography. At the same time, the general climatic and biological features have been taken into account, from the point of view of their importance for avalanche occurrence and distribution. Depending on the microrelief exhibited by the avalanche chutes, one can establish distinct dynamical features for each of the four major slopes of the massif. It is worth mentioning that for this study area, this is the first paper dealing with avalanche phenomenon, vulnerable space, control factors and landscape dynamics. In accomplishing this demarche, we used detailed mappings in the field in several stages, the processing of satellite images, analytical (declivities, the exposure of slopes, etc.) and synthetic maps from which the dynamic of sectors with avalanches resulted. The findings of this investigation may further be employed for solving the problems raised by avalanche-prone areas, as well as for devising a better strategy for the effective management of the mountain realm.  相似文献   
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We resume and consistently extend our previous researches concerning the Gyldén‐type problem (a two‐body problem with time‐dependent equivalent gravitational parameter). To approach most of the concrete astronomical situations to be modelled in this way, we consider a periodic small perturbation. For the nonresonant case, we present a second‐order analytical solution. For the resonant case, we adopt the most realistic astronomical situation: only one dominant term of the Hamiltonian. In this case we point out a fundamental model of resonance, common to every resonant situation, and, moreover, identical to the first fundamental model of resonance . Considering the simplest model of periodic change of the equivalent gravitational parameter, we .nd that all possible resonances are con.ned to the first fundamental model. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   
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Land surface temperature is one of the most important parameters related to global warming. It depends mainly on soil type, discontinuous vegetation cover, or lack of precipitation. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between high LST, synoptic conditions and air masses trajectories, vegetation cover, and soil type in one of the driest region in Romania. In order to calculate the land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index, five satellite images of LANDSAT missions 5 and 7, covering a period of 26 years (1986–2011), were selected, all of them collected in the month of June. The areas with low vegetation density were derived from normalized difference vegetation index, while soil types have been extracted from Corine Land Cover database. HYSPLIT application was employed to identify the air masses origin based on their backward trajectories for each of the five study cases. Pearson, logarithmic, and quadratic correlations were used to detect the relationships between land surface temperature and observed ground temperatures, as well as between land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index. The most important findings are: strong correlation between land surface temperature derived from satellite images and maximum ground temperature recorded in a weather station located in the area, as well as between areas with land surface temperature equal to or higher than 40.0 °C and those with lack of vegetation; the sandy soils are the most prone to high land surface temperature and lack of vegetation, followed by the chernozems and brown soils; extremely severe drought events may occur in the region.  相似文献   
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An iterative refinement method for determining a layered resistivity model from a Schlumberger or Wenner sounding curve is adapted to determine a layered resistivity model by using apparent resistivity and phase derived from the magnetotelluric impedance. Magnetotelluric observations presented as a function of period are first converted to an approximate resistivity–depth profile using Schmucker's transformation and this is used to construct an initial guess (starting) model. A two-stage procedure is then invoked. Keeping resistivities constant, layer boundaries are first adjusted to give a minimum misfit between measured data and responses and this is followed by resistivity adjustments with fixed layer boundaries to reduce the misfit further. The method is illustrated by application to some synthetic data both exact and with added noise, to a real field data set and to some magnetotelluric profile data obtained in a survey over the Carnmenellis granites in south Cornwall. The method is validated by recovering conductivity models from the exact and noisy 1D synthetic data. For complicated three-dimensional data at a single site and along a profile of stations, the method is shown to produce acceptable solutions which may be used as starting models in further two- or three-dimensional studies.  相似文献   
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This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures.  相似文献   
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