Integrated assessment of smallholder farming’s vulnerability to drought in the Brazilian Semi-arid: a case study in Ceará   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Diego Pereira Lindoso  Juliana Dalboni Rocha  Nathan Debortoli  Izabel Ibiapina Parente  Flávio Eiró  Marcel Bursztyn  Saulo Rodrigues-Filho 《Climatic change》2014,127(1):93-105

Smallholder farming is among the most vulnerable sectors due to its great social and economic sensitivity. Despite future climate change, current climate variability is already an issue of concern that justifies adaptation efforts. In Brazil, the Semi-Arid Region is a climate hotspot, well known for both historic socioeconomic setbacks, and agriculture failures caused by dry spells and severe droughts. In 2010, the Brazilian government enacted the National Policy on Climate Change, which states as one of its key goals the identification of vulnerabilities and the adoption of adequate measures of adaptation to climate change. The improvement of vulnerability assessment tools is a response to the growing demand of decision makers for regular information and indicators with high spatial and temporal resolution. This article aims at undertaking a comparative assessment of smallholder farming’s vulnerability to droughts. An integrated assessment system has been developed and applied to seven municipalities located in the Brazilian Semi-Arid Region (within the State of Ceará). Results show regional vulnerability contrasts driven by institutional and socioeconomic factors, beyond climatic stressors.  相似文献   

Application of the two-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo method for characterization of fractured reservoirs using a surrogate flow model     

Victor Ginting  Felipe Pereira  Michael Presho  Shaochang Wo 《Computational Geosciences》2011,15(4):691-707

In this paper, we develop a procedure for subsurface characterization of a fractured porous medium. The characterization involves sampling from a representation of a fracture’s permeability that has been suitably adjusted to the dynamic tracer cut measurement data. We propose to use a type of dual-porosity, dual-permeability model for tracer flow. This model is built into the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method in which the permeability is sampled. The Bayesian statistical framework is used to set the acceptance criteria of these samples and is enforced through sampling from the posterior distribution of the permeability fields conditioned to dynamic tracer cut data. In order to get a sample from the distribution, we must solve a series of problems which requires a fine-scale solution of the dual model. As direct MCMC is a costly method with the possibility of a low acceptance rate, we introduce a two-stage MCMC alternative which requires a suitable coarse-scale solution method of the dual model. With this filtering process, we are able to decrease our computational time as well as increase the proposal acceptance rate. A number of numerical examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the method.  相似文献   

Benthic habitat mapping: Concerns using a combined approach (acoustic, sediment and biological data)     

Rosa Freitas  Fernando Ricardo  Fbio Pereira  Leandro Sampaio  Susana Carvalho  Miguel Gaspar  Victor Quintino  Ana Maria Rodrigues 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011,92(4):72

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Life strategies of Halobatrachus didactylus (Bloch and Schneider, 1801) in the Tagus estuary: Comparison among different morphotypes     

Tadeu José Pereira  Gilda Silva  Maria José Costa  José Lino Costa 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

The Lusitanian toadfish, Halobatrachus didactylus (Bloch and Schneider, 1801), is a subtropical sound-producing marine teleost that inhabits estuaries and other brackish water ecosystems in its northern distribution area. The relative isolation of populations within estuaries may cause important modifications in the bio-ecology of this species. The males of this species present two morphotypes which are more accurately distinguishable during the reproductive season. In the Tagus estuary population, the two types of reproductive males were present: type I, the “characteristic” morphotype, and type II, the alternative morphotype. The opportunistic males had more developed testis while type I males had more developed accessory glands. Type I males presented more developed swimbladders and larger body size and live longer than type II males. On the contrary, type II males grew faster and matured earlier. The feeding habits of the two male morphotypes were similar during the reproductive season but differences were found between reproductive specimens and non-reproductive specimens. The diet of reproductive specimens was mainly composed of benthic prey in contrast to predominance of nectobenthic prey in the diet of non-reproductive specimens. The females of H. didactylus generally had an intermediate pattern between the two male morphotypes. The percentage of type II males tended to be higher in denser areas of the estuary. In comparison with populations from different size ecosystems, smaller ecosystems revealed important modifications on the bio-ecology of the species due to the increased competition for nesting sites and mating partners, favouring alternative male tactics.  相似文献   

Downscaling projections of climate change in Sao Tome and Principe Islands,Africa     

Sin Chan Chou  Andr&#; de Arruda Lyra  Jorge Lu&#;s Gomes  Daniel Andr&#;s Rodriguez  Minella Alves Martins  Nicole Costa Resende  Priscila da Silva Tavares  Claudine Pereira Dereczynski  Isabel Lopes Pilotto  Alessandro Marques Martins  Lu&#;s Felipe Alves de Carvalho  Jos&#; Luiz Lima Onofre  Idal&#;cio Major  Manuel Penhor  Ad&#;rito Santana 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(9):4021-4042

Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular African country extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels and impacts such as inundation, shore line change, and salt water intrusion into underground aquifers. Projections of climate change have considered coarse model resolutions. The objective of this work is to dynamically downscale the global model projections to 4-km resolution and to assess the climate change in the Sao Tome and Principe islands. The global climate projections are provided by the Canadian Earth System Model under two Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling is produced by the Eta regional climate model. The baseline period is taken between 1971 and 2000, and the future climate period is taken between 2041 and 2070. The 2-m temperature simulations show good agreement with station data. The model simulates temperature more accurately than precipitation. The precipitation simulations systematically show underestimation and delay of the rainy and the dry seasons by about 1 month, a feature inherited from the global climate model. In the middle of the 21st century, projections show the strongest warming in the elevated parts of the Sao Tome Island, especially in February under RCP8.5. Warmer nights and warmer days become more frequent in the islands when compared with those in the present. While under RCP4.5, precipitation increases in the islands; under RCP8.5, it decreases everywhere in both islands. Heavy precipitation rates should increase, especially in the south-southwestern parts of the Sao Tome islands. Detailed spatial variability of the temperature and precipitation changes in the islands can only be revealed at very high spatial model resolution. Implications for the potential energy production from two major river basins are assessed in this work.  相似文献   

II. Search for the Matter Clumps in Scales z ∼ 1     

V.F. Litvin  F.M. Holzmann  B.S. Taibin  S.A. Matveev  W. Pereira  V.V. Orlov 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,253(2):181-187

The main aim of this paper is to search for matter clumps in scales with redshifts z∼1 using a new enlarged version of the QSO catalogue. This work confirms the evidence of the existence of anomalous spots in the sky, where the Hubble diagram shows an extreme behaviour, as well as the existence of a spot where there is maximum density of absorbers. In addition to this, the work also reveals a second anomaly of the same type, though of smaller intensity. An estimate is carried out of the statistical significance of these anomalies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Challenges at the early stages of the environmental licensing procedure and potential contributions from geomorphology     

Cristina I.Pereira  Celene B.Milanes  Rafael Sarda  Benjamin Cuker  Camilo M.Botero 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):36-45

Defining impact significance is the main technical task that influences decision-making during the Environmental Licensing Procedure(ELP).The ELP begins with screening to determine potentially signif-icant impacts of the proposed project.Scoping then follows to address any interventions deemed worthy of attention in the production of an Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA).This will include consider-ation of relevant landforms and geomorphological processes.However,preliminary assessments of envi-ronmental impacts often lack the scientific robustness to procure substantive and transactive effectiveness.This review presents an examination of the established practices of screening and scoping while highlighting the foremost challenges to improve the technical grounds of the ELP.The analysis of screening and scoping practices stresses the need for novel methods that ensure the sequential reasoning between their criteria while improving the preliminary evaluation of impact significance.Reducing the inherent subjectivity of discretionary judgment requires scientific methodologies that acknowledge the interaction between the natural system and human interventions,which has been addressed by geomor-phological research.The knowledge consolidated in this review opens the gate to explore the compatibil-ity between the United Nations strategy of Ecosystem Approach(EA)with the ELP through a novel geomorphological interpretation of the EIA.Therefore,this diagnosis demonstrate that screening and scoping practices would benefit from reliable methods that balance the precautionary principle with the efficient character required in the ELP.  相似文献   

Investigating the hydromechanical behaviour of bentonite pellets by swelling pressure tests and discrete element modelling     

Darde  Benjamin  Roux  Jean-Noël  Pereira  Jean-Michel  Dangla  Patrick  Talandier  Jean  Vu  Minh Ngoc  Tang  Anh Minh 《Acta Geotechnica》2021,16(2):507-524

Acta Geotechnica - Bentonite pellet mixtures are candidate material for the sealing of galleries in radioactive waste disposals. The hydromechanical behaviour of assemblies of bentonite pellets is...  相似文献   

Natural radionuclide survey in the coastal strip of the 290 Ramsar site,Uruguay     

Ana Noguera  Heinkel Bentos Pereira  Laura Fornaro 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(22):755

An initial on-going survey of the activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K for sand samples collected within the coastal strip of 290 Ramsar site evaluated the external hazard index, the outdoor annual effective dose equivalent and the radium equivalent activity, to elucidate potential risks for the resident inhabitants. The range of mean activity concentrations in the whole area for ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th and ⁴⁰K were between 4.12?±?0.26 and 48.3?±?1.4, 5.47?±?0.55 and 194?±?13, 77.7?±?4.2 and 445?±?18 Bq kg^?1, respectively. The Barra de Valizas–Aguas Dulces region had the highest activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra and ²³²Th. The annual effective dose equivalent for this region was higher than the mean worldwide value, whereas it is lower than the recommended values for public exposure.  相似文献   

S-type granite generation and emplacement during a regional switch from extensional to contractional deformation (Central Iberian Zone,Iberian autochthonous domain,Variscan Orogeny)     

Pereira  M. F.  Díez Fernández  R.  Gama  C.  Hofmann  M.  Gärtner  A.  Linnemann  U. 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(1):251-267

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Zircon grains extracted from S-type granites of the Mêda-Escalhão-Penedono Massif (Central Iberian Zone, Variscan Orogen) constrain the timing of...  相似文献