Riders under storms: Contributions of nomadic herders’ observations to analysing climate change in Mongolia     

Andrei Marin 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(1):162-176

Predictions of climate change and its impacts are highly uncertain at regional and local levels. Downscaled models often operate with a too coarse scale and look at standard parameters that may be irrelevant to resource-dependent people. This article argues that a more robust analysis and prediction of climate change at local levels can be inferred from the integration of local people's observation of change with meteorological records and models.The example proposed here is the analysis of climate change in the desert-steppe region of Mongolia. While regional models and local analyses agree that Mongolia has become warmer, predictions either ignore or are contradictory about the changes in precipitations and sand storms. The Mongolian pastoral nomads on the other hand identify longer and more intense droughts and sand storms as the most important recent climatic changes, relevant to their livelihoods. In addition, they record detailed changes in the precipitations regime. Thus, they are unequivocal that rains have become patchy – ‘silk embroidery rains’ – (forcing pastoralists to move farther and more frequently), more intense (thus less effective due to runoff) and that summer rains are delayed (reducing the growing season).The observations of the pastoralists can only partly be investigated in light of meteorological records due to different parameters observed by the two systems. Nevertheless, additional evidence derived from the analysis of meteorological records resonates with the perceptions of the herders and adds elements for further investigation. This combined evidence suggests that due to a southern shift of the East Asian Monsoon, rains in southern Mongolia rely on re-circulated local moisture, leading to large-scale droughts and in turn more frequent sand storms.The analysis provided herein shows that combining the two knowledge systems (local people's observations and climatology) holds the potential to provide more reliant and relevant investigations of climate change and allow for better planned adaptations.  相似文献   

Holocene Treeline History and Climate Change Across Northern Eurasia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Glen M. MacDonald  Andrei A. Velichko  Constantine V. Kremenetski  Olga K. Borisova  Aleksandra A. Goleva  Andrei A. Andreev  Les C. Cwynar  Richard T. Riding  Steven L. Forman  Tom W. D. Edwards  Ramon Aravena  Dan Hammarlund  Julian M. Szeicz  Valery N. Gattaulin 《Quaternary Research》2000,53(3):302

Radiocarbon-dated macrofossils are used to document Holocene treeline history across northern Russia (including Siberia). Boreal forest development in this region commenced by 10,000 yr B.P. Over most of Russia, forest advanced to or near the current arctic coastline between 9000 and 7000 yr B.P. and retreated to its present position by between 4000 and 3000 yr B.P. Forest establishment and retreat was roughly synchronous across most of northern Russia. Treeline advance on the Kola Peninsula, however, appears to have occurred later than in other regions. During the period of maximum forest extension, the mean July temperatures along the northern coastline of Russia may have been 2.5° to 7.0°C warmer than modern. The development of forest and expansion of treeline likely reflects a number of complimentary environmental conditions, including heightened summer insolation, the demise of Eurasian ice sheets, reduced sea-ice cover, greater continentality with eustatically lower sea level, and extreme Arctic penetration of warm North Atlantic waters. The late Holocene retreat of Eurasian treeline coincides with declining summer insolation, cooling arctic waters, and neoglaciation.  相似文献   

Reestablishment of an accretionary prism after the subduction of a spreading ridge—constraints by a geometric model for the Golfo de Penas, Chile   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Andrei Maksymowicz 《Geo-Marine Letters》2013,33(5):345-355

Seismic studies offshore southern Chile have revealed the presence of a 70–80 km wide accretionary prism seaward of the Golfo de Penas (GPAP), where the Chile Ridge collided with the South American Plate between 3 and 6 Ma ago. Using the paleo-positions of the Chile Ridge relative to South America, the maximum age of this accretionary prism, which continues to be formed in the aftermath of the ridge–continent collision, has been estimated. Building on these earlier findings, this study presents a mass balance analysis based on a 2D model of accretionary wedge and trench geometry. This model can explain the relative importance of sedimentary fluxes and deformation front migration for the wedge restoration. The proposed model can also serve to evaluate the effects of fluctuations in (1) terrigenous sediment flux related to climate change, and (2) subduction channel thickness on the accretionary prism growth. Notably, the data reveal that the key parameters controlling the rebuilding of the GPAP are the terrigenous sediment flux (75 km²/10⁶ years), the relative advance of the deformation front (39.6 km/10⁶ years), and the thickness of the subduction channel (0.1 km). Moreover, the range of possible solutions for the observed size of the accretionary prism is narrowed by fitting the present-day thickness of sediments at the deformation front. Finally, climate-induced variations in sedimentary fluxes on the margin can affect the rate of growth of the accretionary prism during short periods of time (<100,000 years).  相似文献   

A DUAL mission for nuclear astrophysics     

Peter von Ballmoos  Jose Alvarez  Nicolas Barrière  Steve Boggs  Andrei Bykov  Juan Manuel Del Cura Velayos  Filippo Frontera  Lorraine Hanlon  Margarita Hernanz  Emmanuel Hinglais  Jordi Isern  Pierre Jean  Jürgen Kn?dlseder  Lucien Kuiper  Mark Leising  Beno?t Pirard  Jean-Pierre Prost  Rui M. Curado da Silva  Tadayuki Takahashi  John Tomsick  Roland Walter  Andreas Zoglauer 《Experimental Astronomy》2012,34(2):583-622

DUAL will study the origin and evolution of the elements and explores new frontiers of physics: extreme energies that drive powerful stellar explosions and accelerate particles to macroscopic energies; extreme densities that modify the laws of physics around the most compact objects known; and extreme fields that influence matter in a way that is unknown on Earth. The variability of these extreme objects requires continuous all-sky coverage, while detailed study demands an improvement in sensitivity over previous technologies by at least an order of magnitude. The DUAL payload is composed of an All-Sky Compton Imager (ASCI), and two optical modules, the Laue-Lens Optic (LLO) and the Coded-Mask Optic (CMO). The ASCI serves dual roles simultaneously, both as an optimal focal-plane sensor for deep observations with the optical modules and as a sensitive true all-sky telescope in its own right for all-sky surveys and monitoring. While the optical modules are located on the main satellite, the All-Sky Compton Imager is situated on a deployable structure at a distance of 30?m from the satellite. This configuration not only permits to maintain the less massive payload at the focal distance, it also greatly reduces the spacecraft-induced detector background, and, above all it provides ASCI with a continuous all-sky exposure.  相似文献   

Laser-like wave amplification in straits     

Pushkarev  Andrei 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(2):195-215

Ocean Dynamics - We present research on the excitation of ocean surface wind waves in non-homogeneous situations, for the case of a deep water strait in the presence of a constant wind, blowing...  相似文献   

Chronology of Sediment Deposition in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon     

Steven M. Colman  J. Platt Bradbury  John P. McGeehin  Charles W. Holmes  David Edginton  Andrei M. Sarna-Wojcicki 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2004,31(2):139-149

A combination of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C, ²¹⁰Pb, and ¹³⁷Cs measurements provides a robust chronology for sedimentation in Upper Klamath Lake during the last 45 000 years. Mixing of surficial sediments and possible mobility of the radio-isotopes limit the usefulness of the ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb data, but ²¹⁰Pb profiles provide reasonable average sediment accumulation rates for the last 100–150 years. Radiocarbon ages near the top of the core are somewhat erratic and are too old, probably as a result of detrital organic carbon, which may have become a more common component in recent times as surrounding marshes were drained. Below the tops of the cores, radiocarbon ages in the center of the basin appear to be about 400 years too old, while those on the margin appear to be accurate, based on comparisons with tephra layers of known age.Taken together, the data can be combined into reasonable age models for each site. Sediments have accumulated at site K1, near the center of the basin, about 2 times faster than at site CM2, on the margin of the lake. The rates are about 0.10 and 0.05 cm/yr, respectively. The chronological data also indicate that accumulation rates were slower during the early to middle Holocene than during the late Holocene, consistent with increasing wetness in the late Holocene.  相似文献   

Carbon sequestration and environmental effects of afforestation with Pinus radiata D. Don in the Western Cape, South Africa     

Juan F. García-Quijano  Jan Peters  Liesbet Cockx  Gerrit van Wyk  Andrei Rosanov  Gaby Deckmyn  Reinhart Ceulemans  Shane M. Ward  Nicholas M. Holden  Jos Van Orshoven  Bart Muys 《Climatic change》2007,83(3):323-355

A three-step methodology to assess the carbon sequestration and the environmental impact of afforestation projects in the framework of the Flexible Mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol (Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanism) was developed and tested using a dataset collected from the Jonkershoek forest plantation, Western Cape, South Africa, which was established with Pinus radiata in former native fynbos vegetation and indigenous forest. The impact of a change in land use was evaluated for a multifunctional, a production and a non-conversion scenario. First, the carbon balance was modelled with GORCAM and was expressed as (1) C sequestration in tC ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in soil, litter, and living biomass according to the rules of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) CO₂ emission reductions in tC ha⁻¹ year⁻¹, which includes carbon sequestered in the above-mentioned pools and additionally in wood products, as well as emission reductions due to fossil fuel substitution. To estimate forest growth, three data sources were used: (1) inventory data, (2) growth simulation with a process-based model, and (3) yield tables. Second, the effects of land use change were assessed for different project scenarios using a method related to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The method uses 17 quantitative indicators to describe the impact of project activities on water, soil, vegetation cover and biodiversity. Indicator scores were calculated by comparing indicator values with reference values, estimated for the climax vegetation. The climax vegetation is the site-specific ecosystem phase with the highest exergy content and the highest exergy flow dissipation capacity. Third, the land use impact per functional unit of 1 tC sequestered was calculated by combining the results of step 1 and step 2. The average baselines to obtain carbon additionality are 476 tC ha⁻¹ for indigenous forest and 32 tC ha⁻¹ for fynbos. Results show that the influence of the growth assessment method on the magnitude of C sequestration and hence on the environmental impact per functional unit is large. When growth rate is assessed with the mechanistic model and with the yield table, it is overestimated in the early years and underestimated in the long term. The main conclusion of the scenario analysis is that the production forest scenario causes higher impacts per functional unit than the multifunctional scenario, but with the latter being less efficient in avoiding CO₂ emissions. The proposed method to assess impacts on diverse components of the ecosystem is able to estimate the general tendency of the adverse and positive effects of each scenario. However, some indicators, more specifically about biodiversity and water balance, could be improved or reinterpreted in light of specific local data about threat to biodiversity and water status.  相似文献   

Age and extent of the Ilopango TBJ Tephra inferred from a Holocene chronostratigraphic reference section, Lago De Yojoa, Honduras   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peter J. Mehringer Jr.  Andrei M. Sarna-Wojcicki  Payson Sheets 《Quaternary Research》2005,63(2):199-205

Eruption of central El Salvador's Ilopango Volcano early in the first millennium A.D. caused death, cultural devastation, and exodus of southern Mesoamericans. It also left a time-stratigraphic marker in western El Salvador and adjacent Guatemala—the Ilopango Tierra Blanca Joven, or TBJ tephra. Mineral suites and major element abundances identify a silicic volcanic ash in cores from Lago de Yojoa, Honduras, as Ilopango TBJ. This extends its reported range more than 150 km to the northeast. Analyses of glass from the TBJ tephra from the Chalchuapa archaeological site, El Salvador, and from Lago de Yojoa, Honduras, establish the first major element reference fingerprint for the TBJ tephra. The Lago de Yojoa cores also hold two previously undated trachyandesitic tephra layers originating from the nearby Lake Yojoa Volcanic Field. One fell shortly before 11,000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. and the other about 8600 ¹⁴C yr B.P.  相似文献   

2.5D seismic velocity modelling in the south-eastern Romanian Carpathians Orogen and its foreland     

Andrei Bocin  Randell Stephenson  Ari Tryggvason  Ionelia Panea  Victor Mocanu  Franz Hauser  Liviu Matenco 《Tectonophysics》2005,410(1-4):273-291

The DACIA-PLAN (Danube and Carpathian Integrated Action on Processes in the Lithosphere and Neotectonics) deep seismic reflection survey was performed in August–September 2001, with the objective of obtaining new information on the deep structure of the external Carpathians nappe system and the architecture of the Tertiary/Quaternary basins developed within and adjacent to the Vrancea zone, including the rapidly subsiding Focsani Basin. The DACIA-PLAN profile is about 140 km long, having a roughly WNW–ESE direction, from near the southeast Transylvanian Basin, across the mountainous south-eastern Carpathians and their foreland to near the Danube River. A high resolution 2.5D velocity model of the upper crust along the seismic profile has been determined from a tomographic inversion of the DACIA-PLAN first arrival data. The results show that the data fairly accurately resolve the transition from sediment to crystalline basement beneath the Focsani Basin, where industry seismic data are available for correlation, at depths up to about 10 km. Beneath the external Carpathians nappes, apparent basement (material with velocities above 5.8 km/s) lies at depths as shallow as 3–4 km, which is less than previously surmised on the basis of geological observations. The first arrival travel-time data suggest that there is significant lateral structural heterogeneity on the apparent basement surface in this area, suggesting that the high velocity material may be involved in Carpathian thrusting.  相似文献   

Multiple zircon growth during fast exhumation of diamondiferous, deeply subducted continental crust (Kokchetav Massif, Kazakhstan)   总被引：36，自引：0，他引：36  

Jörg Hermann  Daniela Rubatto  Andrei Korsakov  Vladislav S. Shatsky 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2001,141(1):66-82

Diamondiferous rocks from the Kokchetav Massif, Kazakhstan, represent deeply subducted continental crust. In order to constrain the age of ultra high pressure (UHP) metamorphism and subsequent retrogression during exhumation, zircons from diamondiferous gneisses and metacarbonates have been investigated by a combined petrological and isotopic study. Four different zircon domains were distinguished on the basis of transmitted light microscopy, cathodoluminescence, trace element contents and mineral inclusions. Mineral inclusions and trace element characteristics of the zircon domains permit us to relate zircon growth to metamorphic conditions. Domain 1 consists of rounded cores and lacks evidence of UHP metamorphism. Domain 2 contains diamond, coesite, omphacite and titanian phengite inclusions providing evidence that it formed at UHP metamorphic conditions (P>43 kbar; T~950 °C). Domain 3 is characterised by low-pressure mineral inclusions such as garnet, biotite and plagioclase, which are common minerals in the granulite-facies overprint of the gneisses (P~10 kbar; T~800 °C). This multi-stage zircon growth during cooling and exhumation of the diamondiferous rocks can be best explained by zircon growth from Zr-saturated partial melts present in the gneisses. Domain 4 forms idiomorphic overgrowths and the rare earth element pattern indicates that it formed without coexisting garnet, most probably at amphibolite-facies conditions (P~5 kbar; T~600 °C). The metamorphic zircon domains were dated by SHRIMP ion microprobe and yielded ages of 527LJ, 528NJ and 526LJ Ma for domains 2, 3 and 4 respectively. These indistinguishable ages provide evidence for a fast exhumation beyond the resolution of SHRIMP dating. The mean age of all zircons formed between UHP metamorphic conditions and granulite-facies metamorphism is 528Dž Ma, indicating that decompression took place in less than 6 Ma. Hence, the deeply subducted continental crust was exhumed from mantle depth to the base of the crust at rates higher than 1.8 cm/year. We propose a two-stage exhumation model to explain the obtained P-T-t path. Fast exhumation on top of the subducted slab from depth >140 to ~35 km was driven by buoyancy and facilitated by the presence of partial melts. A period of near isobaric cooling was followed by a second decompression event probably related to extension in a late stage of continental collision.  相似文献