Impact of prescribed Arctic sea ice thickness in simulations of the present and future climate     

Gerhard Krinner  Annette Rinke  Klaus Dethloff  Irina V. Gorodetskaya 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(4):619-633

This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed.  相似文献   

Quantitative climate and vegetation trends since the late glacial on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau deduced from Koucha Lake pollen spectra     

Ulrike Herzschuh  Annette Kramer  Chengjun Zhang 《Quaternary Research》2009,71(2):162-171

Quantitative information on vegetation and climate history from the late glacial-Holocene on the Tibetan Plateau is extremely rare. Here, we present palynological results of a 4.30-m-long sediment record collected from Koucha Lake in the Bayan Har Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Vegetation change has been traced by biomisation, ordination of pollen data, and calculation of pollen ratios. The application of a pollen-climate calibration set from the eastern Tibetan Plateau to Koucha Lake pollen spectra yielded quantitative climate information. The area was covered by alpine desert/steppe, characteristic of a cold and dry climate (with 50% less precipitation than today) between 16,700 and 14,600 cal yr BP. Steppe vegetation, warm (∼ 1°C higher than today) and wet conditions prevailed between 14,600 and 6600 cal yr BP. These findings contradict evidence from other monsoon-influenced areas of Asia, where the early Holocene is thought to have been moist. Low effective moisture on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was likely due to high temperature and evaporation, even though precipitation levels may have been similar to present-day values. The vegetation changed to tundra around 6600 cal yr BP, indicating that wet and cool climate conditions occurred on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the second half of the Holocene.  相似文献   

Simulated circum-Arctic climate changes by the end of the 21st century   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Annette Rinke  Klaus Dethloff 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,62(1-2):173-186

This study investigates future changes of the Arctic climate by the end of the 21st century, simulated by the regional climate model HIRHAM forced with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM general circulation model and assuming the SRES A1B emission scenario. This assessment provides the regional patterns of future circulation, temperature, and precipitation in the Arctic by the end of the 21st century. The magnitude of winter and summer temperature and precipitation is projected to increase, while their interannual variability is projected to change seasonally and is regionally dependent. The regional-scale response of the temperature and precipitation is associated with changes in storm tracks and atmospheric baroclinicity. During winter, the regions of strongest baroclinicity are shifted northward and strengthened. Changes in the seasonal temperature and precipitation are accompanied by changes in their extremes. Extreme warm and cold events are significantly projected to change, with relative changes of seasonal precipitation being larger than those of precipitation extremes.  相似文献   

Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen     

Michael Huettner  Annette Freibauer  Constanze Haug  Uwe Cantner 《Carbon balance and management》2010,5(1):2

The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations.  相似文献   

Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami–tide simulations     

Michael Shelby  Stéphan T. Grilli  Annette R. Grilli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(12):3999-4037

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Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade     

Hartmut H. Hellmer  Monika Rhein  Günther Heinemann  Janna Abalichin  Wafa Abouchami  Oliver Baars  Ulrich Cubasch  Klaus Dethloff  Lars Ebner  Eberhard Fahrbach  Martin Frank  Gereon Gollan  Richard J. Greatbatch  Jens Grieger  Vladimir M. Gryanik  Micha Gryschka  Judith Hauck  Mario Hoppema  Oliver Huhn  Torsten Kanzow  Boris P. Koch  Gert König-Langlo  Ulrike Langematz  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Christof Lüpkes  Stephan Paul  Annette Rinke  Bjoern Rost  Michiel Rutgers van der Loeff  Michael Schröder  Gunther Seckmeyer  Torben Stichel  Volker Strass  Ralph Timmermann  Scarlett Trimborn  Uwe Ulbrich  Celia Venchiarutti  Ulrike Wacker  Sascha Willmes  Dieter Wolf-Gladrow 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(11):1379-1413

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Quantification of Long-Range Persistence in Geophysical Time Series: Conventional and Benchmark-Based Improvement Techniques     

Annette Witt  Bruce D. Malamud 《Surveys in Geophysics》2013,34(5):541-651

Time series in the Earth Sciences are often characterized as self-affine long-range persistent, where the power spectral density, S, exhibits a power-law dependence on frequency, f, S(f) ~ f ^?β , with β the persistence strength. For modelling purposes, it is important to determine the strength of self-affine long-range persistence β as precisely as possible and to quantify the uncertainty of this estimate. After an extensive review and discussion of asymptotic and the more specific case of self-affine long-range persistence, we compare four common analysis techniques for quantifying self-affine long-range persistence: (a) rescaled range (R/S) analysis, (b) semivariogram analysis, (c) detrended fluctuation analysis, and (d) power spectral analysis. To evaluate these methods, we construct ensembles of synthetic self-affine noises and motions with different (1) time series lengths N = 64, 128, 256, …, 131,072, (2) modelled persistence strengths β _model = ?1.0, ?0.8, ?0.6, …, 4.0, and (3) one-point probability distributions (Gaussian, log-normal: coefficient of variation c _v = 0.0 to 2.0, Levy: tail parameter a = 1.0 to 2.0) and evaluate the four techniques by statistically comparing their performance. Over 17,000 sets of parameters are produced, each characterizing a given process; for each process type, 100 realizations are created. The four techniques give the following results in terms of systematic error (bias = average performance test results for β over 100 realizations minus modelled β) and random error (standard deviation of measured β over 100 realizations): (1) Hurst rescaled range (R/S) analysis is not recommended to use due to large systematic errors. (2) Semivariogram analysis shows no systematic errors but large random errors for self-affine noises with 1.2 ≤ β ≤ 2.8. (3) Detrended fluctuation analysis is well suited for time series with thin-tailed probability distributions and for persistence strengths of β ≥ 0.0. (4) Spectral techniques perform the best of all four techniques: for self-affine noises with positive persistence (β ≥ 0.0) and symmetric one-point distributions, they have no systematic errors and, compared to the other three techniques, small random errors; for anti-persistent self-affine noises (β < 0.0) and asymmetric one-point probability distributions, spectral techniques have small systematic and random errors. For quantifying the strength of long-range persistence of a time series, benchmark-based improvements to the estimator predicated on the performance for self-affine noises with the same time series length and one-point probability distribution are proposed. This scheme adjusts for the systematic errors of the considered technique and results in realistic 95 % confidence intervals for the estimated strength of persistence. We finish this paper by quantifying long-range persistence (and corresponding uncertainties) of three geophysical time series—palaeotemperature, river discharge, and Auroral electrojet index—with the three representing three different types of probability distribution—Gaussian, log-normal, and Levy, respectively.  相似文献   

Simultaneous Determination of 11 Sulfonamides by HPLC–UV and Application for Fast Screening of Their Aerobic Elimination and Biodegradation in a Simple Test     

Waleed M. M. Mahmoud  Nareman D. H. Khaleel  Ghada M. Hadad  Randa A. Abdel‐Salam  Annette Haiß  Klaus Kümmerer 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2013,41(9):907-916

Sulfonamides (SAs) are one of the most frequently used antibiotics. SAs have been found in various environmental compartments. If SAs are not degraded in the environment, they can affect bacteria by their antibiotic properties and contribute to bacterial antibiotic resistance. Therefore, the biodegradability of 11 SAs (sulfanilamide, sulfaguanidine monohydrate, sulfadiazine, sulfathiazole, sulfapyridine, sulfamerazine, sulfamethoxypyridazine, sulfachloropyridazine, sulfamethazine, sulfamethoxazole, and sulfadimethoxine) was studied. For this purpose, the Closed Bottle Test (CBT, OECD 301D) was performed, which includes a toxicity control. In order to monitor the environmental fate of the parent compound and to check for transformation products, a simple, efficient, and reliable HPLC–UV method for the simultaneous determination of these SAs has been developed. Acetonitrile and water (with 0.1% formic acid) were used as mobile phase solvents for gradient elution. The method was validated in terms of precision, detection and quantitation limits, selectivity, and analytical solution stability. In the CBT, none of these SAs was readily biodegradable. The HPLC–UV analysis confirmed that no degradation of any SA took place. In the toxicity control, these SAs showed no toxic effect in the used concentration of environmental bacteria applied in the test.  相似文献   

Factors influencing willingness to participate in disaster reduction     

Xiaofeng Luo  Annette E. Levi 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):1243-1255

This research is based on a questionnaire of 556 peasant households in the Jianghan Plain. By analyzing the rate of participation of peasant households using a participation model, this study intends to explain the peasant household’s willingness to participate in disaster reduction and factors that influence willingness to participate. The investigation of participation rate revealed that households are generally concerned about engineering measures used for disaster reduction, but the willingness to participate is not strong; the peasant household’s attention to recommendations for non-engineering disaster reduction is high, but the willingness to participate is very low. The quantitative analysis of the participation model of disaster reduction showed that the level of peasant household’s willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction was dependent upon their attitude toward a variety of measures of risk and the input costs of disaster reduction. The cognition of a disaster’s impact, fertility level of farmland, condition of irrigation canals, and amount of arable land have a remarkable influence on the willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction. Age of household and joining cooperating organizations do not influence the willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction. On the other hand, the education level, professional skills, and family size influence on one dimension of disaster reduction, but do not influence another dimension of disaster reduction.  相似文献   

Vegetation patterns and diversity along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of northern Oman   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Katja Brinkmann  Annette Patzelt  Uta Dickhoefer  Eva Schlecht  Andreas Buerkert 《Journal of Arid Environments》2009,73(11):1035-1045

Little is known about the effects of grazing on vegetation composition on the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this study therefore was to analyse the vegetation response to environmental conditions of open woodlands along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of Oman. The species composition, vegetation structure, grazing damage and several environmental variables were investigated for 62 samples using a nested plot design. Classification analysis and a Canonical Variate Analysis (CVA) were used to define vegetation types and to identify underlying environmental gradients. The relationship between environmental variables and diversity was analysed using correlation coefficients and a main-effects ANOVA. The plant species richness followed a unimodal distribution along the altitudinal gradient with the highest number of species at the intermediate altitudinal belt. The cluster analysis led to five vegetation groups: The Sideroxylon mascatense–Dodonaea viscosa group on grazed and the Olea europaea–Fingerhuthia africana group on ungrazed plateau sites at 2000 m a.s.l., the Ziziphus spina-christi–Nerium oleander group at wadi sites and the Moringa peregrina–Pteropyrum scoparium group at 1200 m a.s.l, and the Acacia gerrardii–Leucas inflata group at 1700 m a.s.l. The CVA indicated a clear distinction of the groups obtained by the agglomerative cluster analysis. The landform, altitude and grazing intensity were found to be the most important variables distinguishing between clusters. Overgrazing of the studied rangeland is an increasing environmental problem, whereas the plant composition at ungrazed sites pointed to a relatively fast and high regeneration potential of the local vegetation.  相似文献