Spatiotemporal modeling of relative risk of dengue disease in Colombia     

Daniel?Martínez-BelloEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Antonio?López-Quílez  Alexander?Torres?Prieto 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1587-1601

Spatiotemporal modeling of relative risk of dengue disease provides useful risk maps for surveillance and forecasting. The objective of the study was to generate smoothed estimates of relative risk applying hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal models, including covariates derived from satellite images containing land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index, for the period January 2009–December 2015, in a medium–sized Colombian city. Our models are based on the spatiotemporal interaction modeling framework of relative risk, where the interaction effects are unstructured, temporal, spatial or inseparable, at a small spatial and temporal scales. We fitted the models using Markov chain MonteCarlo Simulations, selecting the best model using leave-one-out cross-validation and widely applicable information criteria. Our best model was the inseparable spatiotemporal interaction-effects plus LST with constant coefficient model. We found a weak, positive association between LST and cases of dengue. We discussed the strengths and weaknesses of our spatiotemporal models given the spatial and temporal resolution selected in the study.  相似文献   

Numerical insights on the seismic behavior of a non-isolated historical masonry tower     

Giovanni Castellazzi  Antonio Maria D’Altri  Stefano de Miranda  Andrea Chiozzi  Antonio Tralli 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(2):933-961

In this paper, numerical insights on the seismic behavior of a non-isolated historical masonry tower are presented and discussed. The tower under study is the main tower of the fortress of San Felice sul Panaro, a town located near the city of Modena (Italy). Such a tower is surrounded by adjacent structural elements and, therefore, is not isolated. This historical monument has been hit by the devastating seismic sequence occurred in May 2012 in the Northern part of the Emilia region (the so-called “Emilia earthquake”), showing a huge and widespread damage. Here, in order to understand the behavior of the structure, its interaction with the adjacent buildings and the reasons of the occurred damage, advanced numerical analyses (both nonlinear static and dynamic) are performed on a 3D finite element model with different levels of constraint supplied by the adjacent structural elements and a detailed comparison between the simulated damage and the actual one is carried out. The results of the conducted numerical campaign show a good agreement with the actual crack pattern, particularly for the model of the tower that considers the adjacent structural elements.  相似文献   

Understanding the dynamics and contamination of an urban aquifer system using groundwater age (14C, 3H,CFCs) and chemistry          下载免费PDF全文

Jürgen Mahlknecht  Arturo Hernández‐Antonio  Christopher J. Eastoe  Carol Tamez‐Meléndez  Rogelio Ledesma‐Ruiz  José A. Ramos‐Leal  Nancy Ornelas‐Soto 《水文研究》2017,31(13):2365-2380

The quality of the groundwater supplying drinking water to the Guadalajara metropolitan area has deteriorated due to both endogenic and exogenic processes. Previous studies of this complex neotectonic volcanic environment suggest that the sources of contamination here are underground fluids derived from an active volcanic center and surface wastewater derived from regional land‐use intensification. This study uses isotopic, gaseous, and chemical signatures to more comprehensively characterize this groundwater flow and its contamination paths. Groundwater is mainly recharged at the La Primavera Caldera to the west and is discharged into the Santiago River to the east. The exception to this trend is the Toluquilla area, where groundwater most likely represents rainfall originating from outside the basin limits. Evaporation affects groundwater in these areas, especially waters that have been affected by recycling below urban areas in the Atejamac area and by intensive agricultural activity in the Toluquilla area. Additionally, we present evidence that groundwater flow through alluvial sediments and tuffs in deeper wells mixes with a lower aquifer unit in basaltic‐andesitic rocks, which are in contact with hydrothermal fluids. Groundwater ages range from postbomb in the western and northwestern regions of the study area (i.e., the Atemajac aquifer unit) to Late Pleistocene in the southern and southeastern regions (i.e., the Toluquilla aquifer unit). Recently recharged water records little mixing and is located mostly in or near the La Primavera volcanic system. As groundwater undergoes gravitational flow towards discharge areas, it mixes with older water components. Chloride and sodium concentrations above natural background levels are primarily related to volcanic activity, nitrate is associated with human activities, and sulfate originates from both anthropogenic sources and water–rock interactions. Nitrate originating from land‐use activities (such as sewers, septic tanks, landfills, and agricultural fields) that is introduced into the deeper part of the groundwater system is expected to travel with the groundwater to the discharge areas because oxidizing conditions will prevent microbial reduction. See Supplementary Information.  相似文献   

The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Elisa Arnone  Dario Pumo  Antonio Francipane  Goffredo La Loggia  Leonardo V. Noto 《水文研究》2018,32(12):1755-1770

Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km² to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff.  相似文献   

A spatio-temporal hierarchical Markov switching model for the early detection of influenza outbreaks     

Amor&#;s  Rub&#;n  Conesa  David  L&#;pez-Qu&#;lez  Antonio  Martinez-Beneito  Miguel-Angel 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2020,34(2):275-292

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Rapidly detecting the beginning of influenza outbreaks helps health authorities to reduce their impact. Accounting for the spatial...  相似文献   

A 1D P-wave velocity model of the Gargano promontory (south-eastern Italy)     

Salvatore de Lorenzo  Maddalena Michele  Antonio Emolo  Andrea Tallarico 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(4):909-919

We investigate the elastic properties of the crust in the Gargano promontory, located in the northern part of the Apulia region (Southeastern Italy). Starting on April, 2013, a local-scale seismic network, composed of 12 short-period (1 Hz) seismic stations, was deployed on the Gargano promontory. Starting on October, 2013, the network was integrated with the recordings of nine seismic stations managed by the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The network recorded more than 1200 seismic events in about 15 months of data acquisition, with more than 700 small magnitude events localized in the Gargano promontory and surrounding areas. A Wadati-modified method allowed us to infer V_P/V_S = 1.73 for the area. A subset of about 400 events having a relatively smaller azimuthal gap (<200°) was selected to calibrate a 1D P-wave velocity model of the area, using the VELEST inversion code. The preferred model was obtained from the average of ten velocity models, each of them representing the inversion result from given initial velocity models, calibrated on previous geological and geophysical studies in the area. The results obtained under the assumption that V_P could decrease with depth are unstable, with very different depths of the top of low-velocity layers. Therefore, the velocity model was obtained from the average of the results obtained under the assumption that V_P cannot decrease with depth. A strong reduction of both RMS (about 58%) and errors on the location of the events was obtained with respect to the starting model. The final velocity model shows a strong velocity gradient in the upper 5 km of the crust and a small increase (from 6.7 to 7 km) at 30 km of depth. The epicenters of relocated events do not show clear correlations with the surface projection of known seismic faults. A cluster of the epicenters of the relocated events intersects almost perpendicularly the Candelaro fault trace at the surface.  相似文献   

A B‐Spline Framework for Smooth Derivative Computation in Well Test Analysis Using Diagnostic Plots          下载免费PDF全文

Josué Tago  Antonio Hernández‐Espriú 《Ground water》2018,56(1):131-142

In the oil and gas industry, well test analysis using derivative plots, has been the core technique in examining reservoir and well behavior over the last three decades. Recently, diagnostics plots have gained recognition in the field of hydrogeology; however, this tool is still underused by groundwater professionals. The foremost drawback is that the derivative function must be computed from noisy field measurements, usually based on finite‐difference schemes, which complicates the analysis. We propose a B‐spline framework for smooth derivative computation, referred to as Constrained Quartic B‐Splines with Free Knots. The approach presents the following novelties in relation to methodological precedents: (1) the use of automatic equality derivative constraints, (2) a knot removal strategy and (3) the introduction of a Boolean shape parameter that defines the number of initial knots to choose. These can lead to evaluate both simple (manually recorded drawdown measurements) and complex (transducer measured records) datasets. Furthermore, we propose an additional shape preserving smoothing preprocess procedure, as a simple, fast and robust method to deal with extremely noisy signals. Our framework was tested in four pumping tests by comparing the spline derivative with regards to the Bourdet algorithm, and we found that the latter is rather noisy (even for large differentiation intervals) and the second derivative response is basically unreadable. In contrast, the spline first and second derivative led to smoother responses, which are more suitable for interpretation. We concluded that the proposed framework is a welcome contribution to evaluate reliable aquifer tests using derivative‐diagnostic plots.  相似文献   

Magnetic and pedological characterisation of a paleosol under aridic conditions in Spain     

Francisco Bautista  Maria Felicidad Bógalo  Antonio Sánchez Navarro  Avto Goguitchaichvili  María José Delgado Iniesta  Ruben Cejudo  Purificación Marín Sanleandro  Juana María Gil  Elvira Díaz-Pereira 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2018,62(1):139-166

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The impact of internal waves on upper continental slopes: insights from the Mozambican margin (southwest Indian Ocean)     

Elda Miramontes  Gwenael Jouet  Estelle Thereau  Miguel Bruno  Pierrick Penven  Charline Guerin  Pascal Le Roy  Laurence Droz  Stephan J. Jorry  F. Javier Hernández-Molina  Antoine Thiéblemont  Ricardo Silva Jacinto  Antonio Cattaneo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1469-1482

Evidences of sedimentation affected by oceanic circulation, such as nepheloid layers and contourites are often observed along continental slopes. However, the oceanographic processes controlling sedimentation along continental margins remain poorly understood. Multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution seismic reflection data revealed a contourite depositional system in the Mozambican upper continental slope composed of a contourite terrace (a surface with a gentle seaward slope dominated by erosion) and a plastered drift (a convex-shape sedimentary deposit). A continuous alongslope channel and a field of sand dunes (mainly migrating upslope), formed during Holocene, were identified in the contourite terrace at the present seafloor. Seismic reflection data of the water column show internal waves and boluses propagating in the pycnocline near the upper slope. The channel and the dunes are probably the result of the interaction of the observed internal waves with the seafloor under two different conditions. The alongslope channel is located in a zone where intense barotropic tidal currents may arrest internal solitary waves, generating a hydraulic jump and focused erosion. However, upslope migrating dunes may be formed by bottom currents induced by internal solitary waves of elevation propagating landwards in the pycnocline. These small-scale sedimentary features generated by internal waves are superimposed on large-scale contouritic deposits, such as plastered drifts and contourite terraces, which are related to geostrophic currents. These findings provide new insights into the oceanographic processes that control sedimentation along continental margins that will help interpretation of palaeoceanographic conditions from the sedimentary record. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

Bioenergetics of parental investment in two polychaete species with contrasting reproductive strategies: The planktotrophic Boccardia chilensis and the poecilogonic Boccardia wellingtonensis (Spionidae)     

Daniel Doherty-Weason  Fernanda Oyarzun  Luciano Vera  Miguel Bascur  Fabián Guzmán  Francisco Silva  Ángel Urzúa  Antonio Brante 《Marine Ecology》2020,41(1):e12574

The level of parental investment for larval nutrition may determine the life cycle in marine invertebrate species laying egg masses or capsules, where the food available for enclosed individuals would determine time and developmental stage of hatching. Most species show a unique type of larval development. However, few species are poecilogonous and combine more than one development type. Poecilogony, although scarcely studied, allows comparing different patterns of parental reproductive investment, without the phylogenetic effect of the species ancestral modes of development (phylogenetic inertia), to help to understand the factors determining life strategy evolution in marine invertebrates. The poecilogonous polychaete worm Boccardia wellingtonensis encapsulates and incubates its offspring, which then hatches as either planktotrophic larvae or benthic juveniles; while Boccardia chilensis shows a non-poecilogonous reproductive type, producing only planktotrophic larvae. In this work, we estimated the bioenergetic and biochemical composition of brooding and non-brooding females of B. wellingtonensis and B. chilensis to compare the costs of reproduction in these two species. Results showed that glucose, protein, lipid, and energy content were significantly higher in non-brooding than in brooding females of B. wellingtonensis; but also contained significantly more glucose, protein, and lipid than females of B. chilensis (in absolute and relative dry weight values). The poecilogonous species showed higher energy content previous to laying offspring. Our results support the idea that the evolution of a certain reproductive and life history traits in marine invertebrates is related to adaptations in the female's reproductive investment.  相似文献