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21.
In this study, the preprocessing of the gamma test was used to select the appropriate input combination into two models including the support vector regression (SVR) model and artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stream flow drought index (SDI) of different timescales (i.e., 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months) in Latian watershed, Iran, which is one of the most important sources of water for the large metropolitan Tehran. The variables used included SDI t , SDI t ? 1, SDI t ? 2, SDI t ? 3, and SDI t ? 4 monthly delays. Two variables including SDI t and SDI t ? 1 with lower gamma values were identified as the most optimal combination of variables in all drought timescales. The results showed that the gamma test was able to correctly identify the right combination for the forecasting of 6, 9, and 12 months SDI using the ANN model. Also, the gamma test was considered in selecting the appropriate inputs for identifying the values of 9, 12, and 24 months SDI in SVR. The support vector machine approach showed a better efficiency in the forecast of long-term droughts compared to the artificial neural network. In total, among forecasts made for 30 scenarios, the support vector machine model only in scenario 3 of SDI3, scenario 1 of SDI6, and scenarios 2 and 3 of SDI24 represented poorer efficiency compared to the artificial neural network (MLP layer), but in other scenarios, the results of SVR had better efficiency.  相似文献   
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The effect of proton superconductivity on the generation of a toroidal magnetic field inside a neutron star is examined. It is shown that including the entrainment of superconducting protons by superfluid neutrons does not change the previously obtained results. Proton superconductivity does influence the structure of the generated magnetic field since, over a time on the order of 104–105 years, the magnetic field increases linearly with time and can exceed the first critical field for proton superconductivity. The distribution of the stationary toroidal magnetic field inside a neutron star is also found.  相似文献   
25.
We present an open‐source algorithm in Mathematica application (Wolfram Research) with a transparent data reduction and Monte Carlo simulation of systematic and random uncertainties for U‐Th geochronometry by multi‐collector ICP‐MS. Uranium and thorium were quantitatively separated from matrix elements through a single U/TEVA extraction chromatography step. A rigorous calibrator‐sample bracketing routine was adopted using CRM‐112A and IRMM‐035 standard solutions, doped with an IRMM‐3636a 233U/236U ‘double‐spike’ to account for instrumental mass bias and deviations of measured isotope ratios from certified values. The mean of 234U/238U and 230Th/232Th in the standard solutions varied within 0.42 and 0.25‰ (permil) of certified ratios, respectively, and were consistent with literature values within uncertainties. Based on multiple dissolutions with lithium metaborate flux fusion, U and Th concentrations in USGS BCR‐2 CRM were updated to 1739 ± 2 and 5987 ± 50 ng g?1 (95% CI), respectively. The measurement reproducibility of our analytical technique was evaluated by analysing six aliquots of an in‐house reference material, prepared by homogenising a piece of speleothem (CC3A) from Cathedral Cave, Utah, which returned a mean age of 21483 ± 63 years (95% CI, 2.9‰). Replicate analysis of ten samples from CC3A was consistent with ages previously measured at the University of Minnesota by single‐collector ICP‐MS within uncertainties.  相似文献   
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The Kangan aquifer (KA) is located beneath the Kangan gas reservoir (KGR), 2,885 m below the ground surface. The gas reservoir formations are classified into nine non-gas reservoir units and eight gas reservoir units based on the porosity, water and gas saturation, lithology, and gas production potential using the logs of 36 production wells. The gas reservoir units are composed of limestone and dolomite, whereas the non-gas reservoir units consist of compacted limestone and dolomite, gypsum and shale. The lithology of KA is the same as KGR with a total dissolved solid of 333,000 mg/l. The source of aquifer water is evaporated seawater. The static pressure on the Gas–Water Contact (GWC) was 244 atm before gas production, but it has continuously decreased during 15 years of gas production, resulting in a 50 m uprising of the GWC and the expansion of KA water and intergranular water inside the gas reservoir. The general flow direction of the KA is toward the northern coast of the Persian Gulf due to the migration of water to the overlying formations via a trust fault. The KA is a gas-capped deep confined aquifer (GCDCA) with special characteristics differing from a shallow confined aquifer. The main characteristics of a GCDCA are unsaturated intergranular water below the confining layers, no direct contact of the water table (GWC) with the confining layers, no vertical flow via the cap rock, permanent uprising of the GWC during gas production, and permanent descend of GWC during water exploitation.  相似文献   
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Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),Atlantic Meridional Mode(AMM),the Bivariate ENSO Time series(BEST),the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 3.4),the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 4),the North Tropical Atlantic Index(NTA),the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index(TNA).These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis(PCA) method.The Atlantic surface temperature(SST:Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.  相似文献   
28.
Flowback analysis recently has been considered as a potential tool for assessing induced fractures through corresponding pressure analyses and rate transient analysis. In this paper, we study fracture closure mechanisms during the flowback of fracturing fluid after hydraulic fracturing treatments. Although it is known that flowback can be significantly affected by the geometry of the fractures and closure stress, there has not been any effort to understand the problem from the geomechanical point of view; rather, available studies assume that a fracture closes uniformly with constant fracture compressibility. The coupled geomechanics and fluid flow model presented in this paper help to elucidate how geostresses may affect fracturing fluid recovery under different conditions. We perform a scaling analysis to formulate the occurrence of different fracture closure modes and then use numerical analyses to verify our scaling parameters. The factors governing the flowback process include the mechanical and petrophysical properties of the rock as well as preexisting discontinuities such as natural fractures. Three different closure modes for fracture networks are described and numerically verified. The occurrence of each mode can dramatically affect fracturing fluid recovery. The role of fluid leakoff into the formation, fractures conductivity, and drawdown strategy are examined for each fracture closure scenario.  相似文献   
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In this study a new method for nonlinear static analysis based on the relative displacements of stories is proposed that is able to be implemented in a single stage analysis and considers the effects of an arbitrary number of higher modes. The method is called the extended drift pushover analysis procedure (EDPA). To define the lateral load pattern, values of the relative displacements of stories are calculated using the elastic modal analysis and the modal combination factors introduced. For determining the combination factors, six different approaches are examined. Buildings evaluated in this study consist of four special steel moment-resisting frames with 10–30 stories. Responses including relative displacements of stories, story shear forces and rotation of plastic hinges in each story are calculated using the proposed approaches in addition to modal pushover analysis and nonlinear dynamic time history analyses. The nonlinear dynamic analysis is implemented using ten consistent earthquake records that have been scaled with regard to ASCE7-10. Distribution of response errors of story shears and plastic hinge rotations show that a major part of error corresponds to the second half of the buildings studied. Thus, the mentioned responses are corrected systematically. The final results of this study show that implementing the EDPA procedure using the third approach of this research is able to effectively overcome the limitations of both the traditional and the modal pushover analyses methods and predict the seismic demands of tall buildings with good accuracy.  相似文献   
30.
Roadheading machines play a vital role in excavation operation in tunneling and mining industries notably when selective mining is required. Roadheaders are more effective in soft to medium rock formations due to a higher cutting rate in such strata. A precise prediction of machine’s performance is a crucial issue, as it has considerable effects on excavation planning, project’s cost estimation, machine specification selection as well as safety of the project. In this research, a database of machine performance and some geomechanical parameters of rock formations from Tabas coal mine project, the largest and fully mechanized coal mine in Iran, has been established, including instantaneous cutting rate (ICR), uniaxial compressive strength, Brazilian tensile strength, rock quality designation, influence of discontinuity orientation (Alpha angle) and specific energy. Afterward, the parameters were analyzed through genetic programming (GP) and gene expression programming (GEP) approaches to yield more accurate models to predict the performance of roadheaders. As statistical indices, coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance account were used to evaluate the efficiency of the developed models. According to the obtained results, it was observed that developed models can effectively be implemented for prediction of roadheader performance. Moreover, it was concluded that performance of the GEP model is better than the GP model. A high conformity was observed between predicted and measured roadheader ICR for GEP model.  相似文献   
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