Connection of the stratospheric QBO with global atmospheric general circulation and tropical SST. Part II: interdecadal variations     

Zeng-Zhen Hu  Bohua Huang  James L. Kinter III  Zhaohua Wu  Arun Kumar 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):25-43

The interdecadal variation of the association of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and with the general circulation in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is examined using the ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, as well as other observation-based analyses. It is found that the relationship between the QBO and tropical SSTA changed once around 1978–1980, and again in 1993–1995. During 1966–1974, negative correlation between the QBO and NINO3.4 indices reached its maximum when the NINO3.4 index lagged the QBO by less than 6?months. Correspondingly, the positive correlations were observed when the NINO3.4 index led the QBO by about 11–13?months or lagged by about 12–18?months. However, maximum negative correlations were shifted from the NINO3.4 index lagging the QBO by about 0–6?months during 1966–1974 to about 3–12?months during 1985–1992. During 1975–1979, both the negative and positive correlations were relatively small and the QBO and ENSO were practically unrelated to each other. The phase-based QBO life cycle composites also confirm that, on average, there are two phase (6–7?months) delay in the evolution of the QBO-associated anomalous Walker circulation, tropical SST, atmospheric stability, and troposphere and lower stratosphere temperature anomalies during 1980–1994 in comparison with those in 1957–1978. The interdecadal variation of the association between the QBO and the troposphere variability may be largely due to the characteristic change of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation. The irregularity of the QBO may play a secondary role in the interdecadal variation of the association.  相似文献   

A robust sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations     

Andrew J. Jarvis  Peter C. Young  David T. Leedal  Arun Chotai 《Climatic change》2008,86(3-4):357-373

This paper formally introduces the concept of mitigation as a stochastic control problem. This is illustrated by applying a digital state variable feedback control approach known as Non-Minimum State Space (NMSS) control to the problem of specifying carbon emissions to control atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the presence of uncertainty. It is shown that the control approach naturally lends itself to integrating both anticipatory and reflexive mitigation strategies within a single unified framework. The framework explicitly considers the closed-loop nature of climate mitigation, and employs a policy orientated optimisation procedure to specify the properties of this closed-loop system. The product of this exercise is a control law that is suitably conditioned to regulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations through assimilating online information within a 25-year review cycle framework. It is shown that the optimal control law is also robust when faced with significant levels of uncertainty about the functioning of the global carbon cycle.  相似文献   

A numerical study on the role of atmospheric forcing on mixed layer depth variability in the Bay of Bengal using a regional ocean model     

Dandapat  Sumit  Chakraborty  Arun  Kuttippurath  Jayanarayanan  Bhagawati  Chirantan  Sen  Radharani 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(10):963-979

Ocean Dynamics - This study investigates the role of driving atmospheric forces [winds, net heat flux, and evaporation–precipitation (E–P)] and the possible mechanisms on the mixed...  相似文献   

Uncertainty analysis of soil erosion modelling using different resolution of open-source DEMs     

Arun Mondal  Deepak Khare  Sananda Kundu 《国际地球制图》2017,32(3):334-349

The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is one of the important parameters of soil erosion assessment and notable uncertainties are found in using different resolutions of the DEM. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model has been applied to analyze the effect of open-source DEMs with different resolution and accuracy on the uncertainties of soil erosion modelling in a part of the Narmada river basin in Madhya Pradesh in central India. Selected open-source DEMs are GTOPO30 (1 km), SRTM (30 and 90 m), CARTOSAT (30 m) and ASTER (30 m), used for estimating erosion rate. Results with better accuracy are achieved with the high-resolution DEMs (30 m) with higher vertical accuracy than the coarse resolution DEMs with lower accuracy. This study has presented potential uncertainties introduced by the open-source DEMs in soil erosion modelling for better understanding of appropriate selection and acceptable errors for researchers.  相似文献   

Ecosystem Services in a Transitional Forest Landscape: Shifting Trajectories in Southeast Michigan,USA     

Nathan Clay  Kayla Yurco  Arun Agrawal  Lauren Persha 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(4):457-472

North American forests provide multiple ecosystem services, such as carbon storage, biodiversity, and recreation. These services are often coordinated through multifunctional management, whereby various users and owners contribute to collective agendas. Forests in exurban “transition” zones are crucial components in the sustainability of broader metropolitan landscapes, but represent a particularly understudied confluence of ecosystem services and multifunctional management. In this paper, we develop a place-based approach to assess ecosystem services in transitional forests (those between rural and urban). We demonstrate how trajectories of forest composition are linked with shifting ecosystem services that both shape and are shaped by management activities. Sited in Stinchfield Woods, a forest in southeast Michigan, this study draws on a household survey, interviews, ecological data, and archival information. Given variations in priorities over time and among different users, we suggest that coordinated, adaptive management may improve provisioning of ecosystem services in ways that benefit multiple users.  相似文献   

Multi-criteria evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs for climate change impact analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ali?AhmadalipourEmail author  Arun?Rana  Hamid?Moradkhani  Ashish?Sharma 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,128(1-2):71-87

Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, for selecting suitable GCMs to be used for climate change impact analysis in the region. Univariate methods includes mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, relative change (variability), Mann-Kendall test, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS-test); whereas multivariate methods used were principal component analysis (PCA), singular value decomposition (SVD), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), and cluster analysis. The analysis is performed on raw GCM data, i.e., before bias correction, for precipitation and temperature climatic variables for all the 20 models to capture the reliability and nature of the particular model at regional scale. The analysis is based on spatially averaged datasets of GCMs and observation for the period of 1970 to 2000. Ranking is provided to each of the GCMs based on the performance evaluated against gridded observational data on various temporal scales (daily, monthly, and seasonal). Results have provided insight into each of the methods and various statistical properties addressed by them employed in ranking GCMs. Further; evaluation was also performed for raw GCM simulations against different sets of gridded observational dataset in the area.  相似文献   

Establishing a predictive performance indicator for real‐time hybrid simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Amin Maghareh  Shirley J. Dyke  Arun Prakash  Gregory B. Bunting 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(15):2299-2318

Real‐time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is increasingly being recognized as a powerful cyber‐physical technique that offers the opportunity for system evaluation of civil structures subject to extreme dynamic loading. Advances in this field are enabling researchers to evaluate new structural components/systems in cost‐effective and efficient ways, under more realistic conditions. For RTHS, performance metric clearly needs to be developed to predict and evaluate the accuracy of various partitioning choices while incorporating the dynamics of the transfer system, and computational/communication delays. In addition, because of the dynamics of the transfer system, communication delays, and computation delays, the RTHS equilibrium force at the interface between numerical and physical substructures is subject to phase discrepancy. Thus, the transfer system dynamics must be accommodated by appropriate actuator controllers. In this paper, a new performance indicator, predictive performance indicator (PPI), is proposed to assess the sensitivity of an RTHS configuration to any phase discrepancy resulting from transfer system dynamics and computational/communication delays. The predictive performance indicator provides a structural engineer with two sets of information as follows: (i) in the absence of a reference response, what is the level of fidelity of the RTHS response? and (ii) if needed, what partitioning adjustments can be made to effectively enhance the fidelity of the response? Moreover, along with the RTHS stability switch criterion, this performance metric may be used as an acceptance criteria for conducting single‐degree‐of‐freedom RTHS. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Chemical evolution in the high arsenic groundwater of the Huhhot basin (Inner Mongolia,PR China) and its difference from the western Bengal basin (India)     

Abhijit Mukherjee  Prosun Bhattacharya  Fei Shi  Alan E. Fryar  Arun B. Mukherjee  Zheng M. Xie  Gunnar Jacks  Jochen Bundschuh 《Applied Geochemistry》2009

Elevated As concentrations in groundwater of the Huhhot basin (HB), Inner Mongolia, China, and the western Bengal basin (WBB), India, have been known for decades. However, few studies have been performed to comprehend the processes controlling overall groundwater chemistry in the HB. In this study, the controls on solute chemistry in the HB have been interpreted and compared with the well-studied WBB, which has a very different climate, physiography, lithology, and aquifer characteristics than the HB. In general, there are marked differences in solute chemistry between HB and WBB groundwaters. Stable isotopic signatures indicate meteoric recharge in the HB in a colder climate, distant from the source of moisture, in comparison to the warm, humid WBB. The major-ion composition of the moderately reducing HB groundwater is dominated by a mixed-ion (Ca–Na–HCO₃–Cl) hydrochemical facies with an evolutionary trend along the regional hydraulic gradient. Molar ratios and thermodynamic calculations show that HB groundwater has not been affected by cation exchange, but is dominated by weathering of feldspars (allitization) and equilibrium with gibbsite and anorthite. Mineral weathering and mobilization of As could occur as recharging water flows through fractured, argillaceous, metamorphic or volcanic rocks in the adjoining mountain-front areas, and deposits solutes near the center of the basin. In contrast, WBB groundwater is Ca–HCO₃-dominated, indicative of calcite weathering, with some cation exchange and silicate weathering (monosiallitization).  相似文献   

Seasonal and Monthly Variation of Vertical Structure of Temperature,Salinity and Heat Flux of the Bay of Bengal     

Bishnu Kumar  Sourav Sil  P. C. Pandey  Arun Chakraborty 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(1):76-99

Seasonal and monthly variations of heat flux have been investigated in this study using the Modular Ocean Model of version 3 (MOM 3) simulations and 52 years Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) products. These variations of the heat flux in different boxes of the Bay of Bengal (BOB) in different depths show the different behavior of the boxes. It is seen that the model and SODA results are comparable. The basin shows north-south variation in the surface from winter to spring whereas there is east-west variation in the mixed layer throughout the year except winter. The remote effect caused by warm water penetration from Pacific Ocean through the Strait of Malacca and coastal Kelvin waves keeps the basin warm most of the year. This article addresses the mechanisms of the seasonal variation of the vertical structure of the temperature and heat flux components.  相似文献   

Scattering of water waves by a pair of vertical porous plates     

R. Gayen  Arpita Mondal 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2015,109(5):480-496

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