A New Insight into Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Central India     

H. S. Mandal  A. K. Shukla  P. K. Khan  O. P. Mishra 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(12):2139-2161

The Son-Narmada-Tapti lineament and its surroundings of Central India (CI) is the second most important tectonic regime following the converging margin along Himalayas-Myanmar-Andaman of the Indian sub-continent, which attracted several geoscientists to assess its seismic hazard potential. Our study area, a part of CI, is bounded between latitudes 18°–26°N and longitudes 73°–83°E, representing a stable part of Peninsular India. Past damaging moderate magnitude earthquakes as well as continuing microseismicity in the area provided enough data for seismological study. Our estimates based on regional Gutenberg–Richter relationship showed lower b values (i.e., between 0.68 and 0.76) from the average for the study area. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis carried out over the area with a radius of ~300 km encircling Bhopal yielded a conspicuous relationship between earthquake return period (T) and peak ground acceleration (PGA). Analyses of T and PGA shows that PGA value at bedrock varies from 0.08 to 0.15 g for 10 % (T = 475 years) and 2 % (T = 2,475 years) probabilities exceeding 50 years, respectively. We establish the empirical relationships $ {\text{ZPA}}_{(T = 475)} = 0.1146\;[V_{\text{s}} (30)]^{ - 0.2924}, $ and $ {\text{ZPA}}_{(T = 2475)} = 0.2053\;[V_{\text{s}} (30)]^{ - 0.2426} $ between zero period acceleration (ZPA) and shear wave velocity up to a depth of 30 m [V _s (30)] for the two different return periods. These demonstrate that the ZPA values decrease with increasing shear wave velocity, suggesting a diagnostic indicator for designing the structures at a specific site of interest. The predictive designed response spectra generated at a site for periods up to 4.0 s at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance of ground motion for 50 years can be used for designing duration dependent structures of variable vertical dimension. We infer that this concept of assimilating uniform hazard response spectra and predictive design at 10 and 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years at 5 % damping at bedrocks of different categories may offer potential inputs for designing earthquake resistant structures of variable dimensions for the CI region under the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program for India.  相似文献   

Assessment of reservoir sedimentation using remote sensing and recommendations for desilting Patratu Reservoir,India     

Ashish Pandey  U.C. Chaube  S.K. Mishra  Dheeraj Kumar 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):711-718

ABSTRACT

This study describes the assessment of reservoir sedimentation of the Patratu Reservoir using Satellite Remote Sensing (SRS). The sedimentation assessment was carried out using satellite data and reservoir water level data from 2006 to 2012. Water spread area was analysed from satellite data. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) has been used to delineate open water features and to enhance the presence of water surface in satellite imagery of the Patratu Reservoir. Water spread area of the reservoir at a particular elevation on the date of the passing of the satellite was used to develop an elevation-area curve. For the present case, fluctuation of water level was found to vary from 387.096 to 406.152 m. The linear interpolation/extrapolation technique has been employed to assess the water spread area of Patratu Reservoir at different elevations. Further, these areas were used to compute the live storage capacity of the reservoir between two elevations by the Prismoidal formula. From the study, it was found that due to sedimentation, the live storage capacity of Patratu Reservoir has reduced from 101.95 to 89.96 hm³, thus showing capacity loss of 11.76% in a span of 44 years. To increase the live storage capacity of the reservoir it is proposed to adopt manual and mechanical digging combined with flushing for desilting of the deposited sediment.