Using climate impacts indicators to evaluate climate model ensembles: temperature suitability of premium winegrape cultivation in the United States     

Noah S. Diffenbaugh  Martin Scherer 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):709-729

We explore the potential to improve understanding of the climate system by directly targeting climate model analyses at specific indicators of climate change impact. Using the temperature suitability of premium winegrape cultivation as a climate impacts indicator, we quantify the inter- and intra-ensemble spread in three climate model ensembles: a physically uniform multi-member ensemble consisting of the RegCM3 high-resolution climate model nested within the NCAR CCSM3 global climate model; the multi-model NARCCAP ensemble consisting of single realizations of multiple high-resolution climate models nested within multiple global climate models; and the multi-model CMIP3 ensemble consisting of realizations of multiple global climate models. We find that the temperature suitability for premium winegrape cultivation is substantially reduced throughout the high-value growing areas of California and the Columbia Valley region (eastern Oregon and Washington) in all three ensembles in response to changes in temperature projected for the mid-twenty first century period. The reductions in temperature suitability are driven primarily by projected increases in mean growing season temperature and occurrence of growing season severe hot days. The intra-ensemble spread in the simulated climate change impact is smaller in the single-model ensemble than in the multi-model ensembles, suggesting that the uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability is smaller than the uncertainty arising from climate model formulation. In addition, the intra-ensemble spread is similar in the NARCCAP nested climate model ensemble and the CMIP3 global climate model ensemble, suggesting that the uncertainty arising from the model formulation of fine-scale climate processes is not smaller than the uncertainty arising from the formulation of large-scale climate processes. Correction of climate model biases substantially reduces both the inter- and intra-ensemble spread in projected climate change impact, particularly for the multi-model ensembles, suggesting that—at least for some systems—the projected impacts of climate change could be more robust than the projected climate change. Extension of this impacts-based analysis to a larger suite of impacts indicators will deepen our understanding of future climate change uncertainty by focusing on the climate phenomena that most directly influence natural and human systems.  相似文献   

Synthetic Spectra for Carbon Stars from Dynamica Model Atmospheres     

Rita Loidl  Josef Hron  Bernhard Aringer  Susanne Höfner  Uffe G. Jφrgensen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,255(1-2):289-290

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Bernhard Butzin 《GeoJournal》1991,2(1):11-26

Within a typical process of urbanization several particularities can be noticed in the Helsinki region: The peninsular location does not allow a zonal expansion of the city. It has rather enforced a tight spatial sectoral expansion with specific problems of traffic and land use. The retarded industrialization has led to an unusually fast population increase without control until the 1960s.The rapid growth created a twofold problem: pressure of population versus inadequate housing, small residences versus high rents; consequently selective migration and small size families. The number of jobs rapidly increased and displaced the residential population of the inner city. This resulted in high traffic which neither the few main roads nor the public transport system of central Helsinki could cope with.These problems correspond to the essential tasks of urban planning: the bottle neck in housing construction has to be broken; the growth of jobs in the central city needs to be stopped as well as the displacement of the residential population. Decentralization, especially of the private tertiary and quartary sector may help. A system of central places within the region would diminish the commuting traffic. Transportation may be solved by a concept of growth points and growth axis along the railway lines.This grown concept of Helsinki should be thought over under the now foreseeable conditions of population stagnation.  相似文献   

Instrumental and atmospheric corrections for the reduction of photographic plates taken with sidereally driven satellite cameras     

M. Scherer 《Journal of Geodesy》1977,51(3):203-211

To obtain the direction of a vector from the earth towards a satellite with an accuracy of 0″.2 or better, some typical instrumental and atmospheric influences can no longer be ignored or neglected when reducing photograms taken with sidereally driven satellite cameras. The wobbling error and the permanent error of the camera pole axis, the starting delay and the systematic alternations of the rotation velocity as well as the influences of changes in the amount and in the direction of the astronomical refraction are discussed. Generally all these errors produce deformations of the satellite trail itself and in its relation to the background stars. However instrumental investigations and computations allow numerical corrections of the measured data and the elimination of all error influences, even with old data. The suggestions given refer to every model of a sidereally driven camera.  相似文献   

XFEM,strong discontinuities and second-order work in shear band modeling of saturated porous media     

Ehsan Mikaeili  Bernhard Schrefler 《Acta Geotechnica》2018,13(6):1249-1264

We investigate shear band initiation and propagation in fully saturated porous media by means of a combination of strong discontinuities (discontinuities in the displacement field) and XFEM. As a constitutive behavior of the solid phase, a Drucker–Prager model is used within a framework of non-associated plasticity to account for dilation of the sample. Strong discontinuities circumvent the difficulties which appear when trying to model shear band formation in the context of classical nonlinear continuum mechanics and when trying to resolve them with classical numerical methods like the finite element method. XFEM, on the other hand, is well suited to deal with problems where a discontinuity propagates, without the need of remeshing. The numerical results are confirmed by the application of Hill’s second-order work criterion which allows to evaluate the material point instability not only locally but also for the whole domain.  相似文献   

Enhancing adaptive composite map projections: Wagner transformation between the Lambert azimuthal and the transverse cylindrical equal-area projections   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bernhard Jenny  Bojan Šavrič 《制图学和地理信息科学》2018,45(5):456-463

The adaptive composite map projection technique changes the projection to minimize distortion for the geographic area shown on a map. This article improves the transition between the Lambert azimuthal projection and the transverse equal-area cylindrical projection that are used by adaptive composite projections for portrait-format maps. Originally, a transverse Albers conic projection was suggested for transforming between these two projections, resulting in graticules that are not symmetric relative to the central meridian. We propose the alternative transverse Wagner transformation between the two projections and provide equations and parameters for the transition. The suggested technique results in a graticule that is symmetric relative to the central meridian, and a map transformation that is visually continuous with changing map scale.  相似文献   

Impact of an 0.2 km3 Rock Avalanche on Lake Eibsee (Bavarian Alps,Germany) – Part I: Reconstruction of the paleolake and Effects of the Impact     

Sibylle Knapp  Philipp Mamot  Bernhard Lempe  Michael Krautblatter 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(1):296-306

Rock avalanches destroy and reshape landscapes in only a few minutes and are among the most hazardous processes on Earth. The surface morphology of rock avalanche deposits and the interaction with the underlying material are crucial for runout properties and reach. Water within the travel path is displaced, producing large impact waves and reducing friction, leading to long runouts. We hypothesize that the 0.2 km³ Holocene Eibsee rock avalanche from Mount Zugspitze in the Bavarian Alps overran and destroyed Paleolake Eibsee and left a unique sedimentological legacy of processes active during the landslide. We captured 9.5 km of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles across the rock avalanche deposits, with up to 120 m penetration depth and more than 34 000 datum points. The ERT profiles reveal up to ~50 m thick landslide debris, locally covering up to ~30 m of rock debris with entrained fine-grained sediments on top of isolated remnants of decametre-wide paleolake sediments. The ERT profiles allow us to infer processes involved in the interaction of the rock avalanche with bedrock, lake sediments, and morainal sediments, including shearing, bulging, and bulldozing. Complementary data from drilling, a gravel pit exposure, laboratory tests, and geomorphic features were used for ERT calibration. Sediments overrun by the rock avalanche show water-escape structures. Based on all of these datasets, we reconstructed both position and size of the paleolake prior to the catastrophic event. Our reconstruction of the event contributes to process an understanding of the rock avalanche and future modelling and hazard assessment. Here we show how integrated geomorphic, geophysical, and sedimentological approaches can provide detailed insights into the impact of a rock avalanche on a lake. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

Brixenbach research catchment: Quantification of runoff process proportions in a small Alpine catchment depending on soil moisture states and precipitation characteristics     

Gertraud Meißl  Clemens Geitner  Andreas Batliner  Klaus Klebinder  Bernhard Kohl  Gerhard Markart 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14186

The Brixenbach valley is a small Alpine torrent catchment (9.2 km², 820–1950 m a.s.l., 47.45°, 12.26°) in Tyrol, Austria. Intensive hydrological research in the catchment since more than 12 years, including a hydrogeological survey, pedological and land use mapping, measurements of precipitation, runoff, soil moisture and infiltration as well as the conduction of rainfall simulations, has contributed to understand the hydrological response of the catchment, its subcatchments and specific sites. The paper presents a synthesis of the research in form of runoff process maps for different soil moisture states and precipitation characteristics, derived with the aid of a newly developed Soil-hydrological model. These maps clearly visualize the differing runoff reaction of different subcatchments. The pasture dominated areas produce high surface flow rates during short precipitation events (1 h, 86 mm) with high rainfall intensity, whilst the forested areas often develop shallow subsurface flow. Dry preconditions lead to a slight reduction of surface flow, long rainfall events (24 h, 170 mm) to a dominance of deep subsurface flow and percolation.  相似文献   

A compromise aspect-adaptive cylindrical projection for world maps     

Bernhard Jenny  Bojan Šavrič  Tom Patterson 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(6):935-952

There are two problems with current cylindrical projections for world maps. First, existing cylindrical map projections have a static height-to-width aspect ratio and do not automatically adjust their aspect ratio in order to optimally use available canvas space. Second, many of the commonly used cylindrical compromise projections show areas and shapes at higher latitudes with considerable distortion. This article introduces a new compromise cylindrical map projection that adjusts the distribution of parallels to the aspect ratio of a canvas. The goal of designing this projection was to show land masses at central latitudes with a visually balanced appearance similar to how they appear on a globe. The projection was constructed using a visual design procedure where a series of graphically optimized projections was defined for a select number of aspect ratios. The visually designed projections were approximated by polynomial expressions that define a cylindrical projection for any height-to-width ratio between 0.3:1 and 1:1. The resulting equations for converting spherical to Cartesian coordinates require a small number of coefficients and are fast to execute. The presented aspect-adaptive cylindrical projection is well suited for digital maps embedded in web pages with responsive web design, as well as GIS applications where the size of the map canvas is unknown a priori. We highlight the projection with a height-to-width ratio of 0.6:1, which we call the Compact Miller projection because it is inspired by the Miller Cylindrical projection. Unlike the Miller Cylindrical projection, the Compact Miller projection has a smaller height-to-width ratio and shows the world with less areal distortion at higher latitudes. A user study with 448 participants verified that the Compact Miller – together with the Plate Carrée projection – is the most preferred cylindrical compromise projection.  相似文献   

Abiotic reduction of uranium by Fe(II) in soil     

Drew E. Latta  Maxim I. Boyanov  Kenneth M. Kemner  Edward J. O’Loughlin  Michelle M. Scherer 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

Structural Fe(II) has been shown to reduce several oxidized environmental contaminants, including NO₃, chlorinated solvents, Cr(VI), and U(VI). Studies investigating reduction of U(VI) by soils and sediments, however, suggest that abiotic reduction of U(VI) by Fe(II) is not significant, and that direct enzymatic reduction of U(VI) by metal-reducing bacteria is required for U(VI) immobilization as U(IV). Here evidence is presented for abiotic reduction and immobilization of U(VI) by structural Fe(II) in a redoximorphic soil collected from a hillside spring in Iowa. Oxidation of Fe(II) in the soil after reaction with U(VI) was demonstrated by Mössbauer spectroscopy and reduction of U(VI) by the pasteurized soil using U L_III-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS). XAS indicates that both reduced U(IV) and oxidized U(VI) or U(V) are present after U(VI) interaction with the Fe(II) containing soil. The EXAFS data show the presence of a non-uraninite U(IV) phase and evidence of the oxidized U(V) or U(VI) fraction being present as a non-uranyl species. Little U(VI) reduction is observed by soil that has been exposed to air and oxidation of Fe(II) to goethite has occurred. Soil characterization based on chemical extractions, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and Fe K-edge XAS indicate that the majority of Fe(II) in the soil is structural in nature, existing in clay minerals and possibly a green rust-like phase. These data provide compelling evidence for abiotic reduction of U(VI) by structural Fe(II) from soil near Fe-rich oxic–anoxic boundaries in natural environments. The work highlights the potential for abiotic reduction of U(VI) by Fe(II) in reduced, Fe-rich environments.  相似文献