Long-term Regional Dynamic Sea Level Changes from CMIP6 Projections     

Bruno FERRERO  Marcos TONELLI  Fernanda MARCELLO  Ilana WAINER 《大气科学进展》2021,38(2):157-167

Anthropogenic climate forcing will cause the global mean sea level to rise over the 21st century.However,regional sea level is expected to vary across ocean basins,superimposed by the influence of natural internal climate variability.Here,we address the detection of dynamic sea level(DSL)changes by combining the perspectives of a single and a multimodel ensemble approach(the 50-member CanESM5 and a 27-model ensemble,respectively,all retrieved from the CMIP6 archive),under three CMIP6 projected scenarios:SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.The ensemble analysis takes into account four key metrics:signal(S),noise(N),S/N ratio,and time of emergence(ToE).The results from both sets of ensembles agree in the fact that regions with higher S/N(associated with smaller uncertainties)also reflect earlier ToEs.The DSL signal is projected to emerge in the Southern Ocean,Southeast Pacific,Northwest Atlantic,and the Arctic.Results common for both sets of ensemble simulations show that while S progressively increases with increased projected emissions,N,in turn,does not vary substantially among the SSPs,suggesting that uncertainty arising from internal climate variability has little dependence on changes in the magnitude of external forcing.Projected changes are greater and quite similar for the scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 and considerably smaller for the SSP1-2.6,highlighting the importance of public policies towards lower emission scenarios and of keeping emissions below a certain threshold.  相似文献   

Emission within a damped Lyman α absorption trough: the complex sightline towards Q2059−360     

Bruno Leibundgut  J. Gorden Robertson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,303(4):711-720

  相似文献   

Space Variations of Stress Along the Tyrrhenian Wadati-Benioff Zone     

G. Bruno  I. Guerra  A. Moretti  G. Neri 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1999,156(4):667-688

—Gephart and Forsyth’s (1984) algorithm for stress inversion of earthquake fault-plane solutions has been applied to a set of ninety intermediate and deep events occurring in the southern Tyrrhenian region between 1976 and 1995. P- and S-wave data from local seismic networks in southern Italy, the Italian National Network and international bulletins, have been used for hypocenter and focal mechanism computations. Stress inversion runs performed after accurate selection and weighting of fault-plane solutions have allowed us to identify stress space variations at a higher level of detail than available from all previous investigations carried out in the study area. The maximum compressive stress has been shown to follow the depth-decreasing dip of the Wadati-Benioff zone, along the entire zone from a depth of 90 km, to the depth of the deepest events (about 500 km). Variations to such a stress pattern have been found, possibly related to mantle dynamics and the complex composition of the subducting structure. The diffused state of down-dip compression suggests that the Tyrrhenian subduction has already evolved to the point where the lower end of the slab has reached high-strength mantle materials, the load of the excess mass is entirely supported from below and most of the subducted slab is under compression. In agreement with the lack of large, shallow thrusting events in the immersion zone, the findings of the present study appear to agree well with geodynamic models assuming a passive subduction process with eastward roll-back of the Ionian lithosphere in the study area. In this context, the depth-decrease of the slab dip may also find a reasonable explanation.  相似文献   

High pressure behaviour of lead feldspar (PbAl2Si2O8)     

M. Tribaudino  P. Benna  E. Bruno  M. Hanfland 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1999,26(5):367-374

An in situ high pressure powder diffraction study, using high-brilliance synchrotron radiation, on lead feldspar (PbAl₂Si₂O₈) was performed. Two samples, with Q _od=0.68 and 0.76, were loaded in a diamond anvil cell and were compressed up to 11 GPa. Up to P=7.1 GPa the only phase present is lead feldspar. In the range 7.1–9.4 GPa sudden changes in the position of the reflections suggest the transformation of lead feldspar to a new phase (probably feldspar-like). The absence of split that would be compatible with triclinic symmetry rules out the monoclinic-triclinic transition, that was reported for the structurally similar strontium feldspar. At P>9.4 GPa some new extra reflections not indexable in the feldspar cell are present as well. During decompression the lead feldspar was the only phase present at P<6 GPa. Peak enlargement was observed with pressure, probably preliminary to amorphization. However almost complete amorphization was observed only after fortuitous shock compression at ∼18 GPa; the crystallinity was recovered at room pressure after decompression. The bulk modulus for lead feldspar was K=71.0(9) and 67.6(1.2) GPa for the two samples, in the range reported for feldspars. The cell parameters show a compression pattern which is similar to that observed in anorthite, with Δa/a ₀>Δc/c ₀>Δb/b ₀; comparison with the high temperature behaviour shows that for lead feldspar the strain tensor with pressure is more isotropic and the deformation along a is less prominent. A turnover in the behaviour of the β angle with pressure suggests a change in the compression behaviour at P∼2 GPa. Rietveld refinement of the Pb coordinates was performed in a series of spectra with pressure ranging from 0.6 to 6.5 GPa. The combined analysis of cell parameters and Pb coordinates with pressure showed that the compression of the structure is mainly achieved by an approach of Pb atoms along a *. Received: 21 July 1998 / Revised, accepted: 13 October 1998  相似文献   

Benthic geochemistry of manganese in the Bay of Biscay,and sediment mass accumulation rate     

Aurélia Mouret  Pierre Anschutz  Pascal Lecroart  Gwénaëlle Chaillou  Christelle Hyacinthe  Jonathan Deborde  Frans J. Jorissen  Bruno Deflandre  Sabine Schmidt  Jean-Marie Jouanneau 《Geo-Marine Letters》2009,29(3):133-149

Manganese is a major redox reactive element of benthic metabolism. We have built a database of existing knowledge on the benthic geochemistry of Mn in the Bay of Biscay, in order to comprehensively assess the behaviour of Mn in a variety of environments during early diagenesis. The database contains vertical profiles of particulate and dissolved Mn species of 59 cores collected during 17 cruises between 1997 and 2006 at nine stations positioned between 140 and 4,800 m water depths. At all studied stations, Mn species follow the conventional distribution, where Mn(III,IV) species are enriched in the oxic layer, and dissolved Mn is present in the anoxic sediments. A minor part of Mn-oxides originates from sedimenting particles. The major part is of diagenetic origin, and derives from the oxidation of upward-diffusing dissolved Mn(II). Mn-oxide inventories are higher at the deeper stations than at the shallower ones. This difference cannot be attributed to different sources of sedimenting particles, but it must depend on sedimentation rate and diagenetic processes. At depth, dissolved Mn(II) concentrations are constant. This probably reflects equilibrium with an authigenic Mn(II) phase, which is the ultimate phase into which Mn is fossilized. The Mn content of deeper anoxic sediments is similarly low in all the cores studied, associated with corresponding trends of Mn content in sedimenting particles of the Bay of Biscay. Bioturbation, rather than redox oscillations, can convey Mn(III,IV) species downwards into the anoxic sediments where they are reduced, associated with a peak of dissolved Mn. Because dissolved Mn(II) is re-oxidized when it diffuses towards the oxic layer, the inventory of the diagenetic Mn(III,IV) phase remains at steady state, especially at stations where the oxic layer is thick. It then becomes possible to calculate the residence time of diagenetic Mn(III,IV) particles within the oxic layer, using the upward-directed flux of pore water Mn(II). By applying this residence time to the accumulation of sediments within the oxic layer, we obtain the sediment mass accumulation rate. The values calculated for the sediments of the Bay of Biscay fit well with accumulation rates obtained from radionuclides or sediment traps. The method has also been validated with data collected in other marine sedimentary environments. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

Can the gold coast beaches withstand extreme events?     

Bruno?CastelleEmail author  Yann?Le?Corre  Rodger?Tomlinson 《Geo-Marine Letters》2008,28(1):23-30

The Gold Coast sandy beaches of Queensland (Australia) are exposed to energetic wave conditions. Storms, particularly tropical cyclones, have a high potential of destruction. The Gold Coast has not experienced excessive erosive events over the past 30 years. However, some climate indicators suggest that cyclone frequency is likely to increase in response to global climate change within the near future. Over a 2-month period in early 2006, beach surveys were undertaken with a theodolite total station at four different sites. Offshore wave conditions were provided by SWAN regional wave modelling. During this study, the Gold Coast was exposed to three major storms, the first one being the second most energetic over the past 30 years. Results show a substantial variability of the beach response to these events along the Gold Coast, and that engineering structures do not have marked effects. Easterly swells have the greatest impact on the Gold Coast sub-aerial beach morphology. When low wave-energy conditions prevail, the southern Gold Coast beaches recover more quickly than the northern ones, as they are sheltered from high SE waves and draw advantage from the artificial sand bypassing system. Nevertheless, the data show that the Gold Coast beaches are exceedingly fragile. For instance, the early March decadal event considerably weakened the beaches, which resulted in surprisingly high erosion rates all along the Gold Coast during the two following annual wave events. This study suggests that the Gold Coast beaches would not be able to withstand the impact of an increased frequency of extreme events similar in scale to those of 1967.  相似文献   

黄金岸线海滩能否抵挡极端事件的冲击     

Bruno Castelle  Yann Le Corre  刘锐 《海洋地质前沿》2008,24(9):21-24

砂质海滩是最变化莫测和脆弱的海岸带类型之一。众所周知,海滩在高能环境中会被侵蚀,但海滩上不同位置点对于极端事件的抵御能力则大不相同。而且,侵蚀速率通常受控于海滩状况、机械结构和前期补给。  相似文献   

Seismic reliability‐based ductility demand evaluation for inelastic base‐isolated structures with friction pendulum devices          下载免费PDF全文

Paolo Castaldo  Bruno Palazzo  Tatiana Ferrentino 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(8):1245-1266

The aim of this work is to propose seismic reliability‐based relationships between the strength reduction factors and the displacement ductility demand of nonlinear structural systems equipped with friction pendulum isolators (FPS) depending on the structural properties. The isolated structures are described by employing an equivalent 2dof model characterized by a perfectly elastoplastic rule to account for the inelastic response of the superstructure, whereas, the FPS behavior is described by a velocity‐dependent model. An extensive parametric study is carried out encompassing a wide range of elastic and inelastic building properties, different seismic intensity levels and considering the friction coefficient as a random variable. Defined a set of natural seismic records and scaled to the seismic intensity corresponding to life safety limit state for L'Aquila site (Italy) according to NTC08, the inelastic characteristics of the superstructures are designed as the ratio between the average elastic responses and increasing strength reduction factors. Incremental dynamic analyses (IDAs) are developed to evaluate the seismic fragility curves of both the inelastic superstructure and the isolation level assuming different values of the corresponding limit states. Integrating the fragility curves with the seismic hazard curves related to L'Aquila site (Italy), the reliability curves of the equivalent inelastic base‐isolated structural systems, with a design life of 50 years, are derived proposing seismic reliability‐based regression expressions between the displacement ductility demand and the strength reduction factors for the superstructure as well as seismic reliability‐based design (SRBD) abacuses useful to define the FPS properties. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Conceptual design and full‐scale experimentation of cladding panel connection systems of precast buildings          下载免费PDF全文

Giandomenico Toniolo  Bruno Dal Lago 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(14):2565-2586

Despite the long series of European research projects that has led to the setting of fully reliable seismic design criteria for precast structures, recent earthquakes have shown that a weak point still exists in the proportioning of the connection systems of cladding wall panels. Following this finding, this paper outlines an organic setting of the design problem of precast concrete structures including cladding–structure interaction and describes three possible solutions, namely, the isostatic, integrated, and dissipative systems. The related fastening arrangements, with the use of existing and innovative connection devices, are also described. This paper comments on the results of the pseudo‐dynamic and cyclic tests performed at ELSA Laboratory of the European Joint Research Centre of Ispra (Italy) on a full‐scale prototype of precast structure. The conception and the experimental performance of the structure with nine different configurations of either vertical or horizontal wall panel claddings are presented. The analysis of the results highlights the effectiveness of the different solutions in a comparative way. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Beach recovery from extreme storm activity during the 2013–14 winter along the Atlantic coast of Europe     

Guillaume Dodet  Bruno Castelle  Gerd Masselink  Timothy Scott  Mark Davidson  France Floc'h  Derek Jackson  Serge Suanez 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(1):393-401

The storm sequence of the 2013–14 winter left many beaches along the Atlantic coast of Europe in their most eroded state for decades. Understanding how beaches recover from such extreme events is essential for coastal managers, especially in light of potential regional increases in storminess due to climate change. Here we analyse a unique dataset of decadal beach morphological changes along the west coast of Europe to investigate the post-2013–14 winter recovery. We show that the recovery signature is site specific and multi-annual, with one studied beach fully recovered after 2 years, and the others only partially recovered after 4 years. During the recovery phase, winter waves primarily control the timescales of beach recovery, as energetic winter conditions stall the recovery process whereas moderate winter conditions accelerate it. This inter-annual variability is well correlated with climate indices. On exposed beaches, an equilibrium model showed significant skill in reproducing the post-storm recovery and thus can be used to investigate the recovery process in more detail. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献