排序方式： 共有116条查询结果，搜索用时 171 毫秒
31.
By GREG AYERS 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2009,61(4):685-693
A hypothesis that air pollution in the form of small particles has caused a secular decrease in precipitation over South East (SE) Australia was advanced by Rosenfeld (2000) , who concluded that the hypothesis was proven. This paper critically reviews the experimental design used in that paper and subsequent work presented in Rosenfeld (2006). It is shown that the meteorological conditions on the single day studied were inappropriate for testing the hypothesis, as was the synoptic weather pattern. Moreover, the study failed to consider prior published work in Australia and readily available independent data such as rainfall patterns that call into question the approach used. We conclude that the experimental design was incapable of addressing the hypothesis, which therefore remains unproven. 相似文献
32.
We study the evolution of finite perturbations in the Lorenz '96 model, a meteorological toy model of the atmosphere. The initial perturbations are chosen to be aligned along different dynamic vectors: bred, Lyapunov, and singular vectors. Using a particular vector determines not only the amplification rate of the perturbation but also the spatial structure of the perturbation and its stability under the evolution of the flow. The evolution of perturbations is systematically studied by means of the so-called mean-variance of logarithms diagram that provides in a very compact way the basic information to analyse the spatial structure. We discuss the corresponding advantages of using those different vectors for preparing initial perturbations to be used in ensemble prediction systems, focusing on key properties: dynamic adaptation to the flow, robustness, equivalence between members of the ensemble, etc. Among all the vectors considered here, the so-called characteristic Lyapunov vectors are possibly optimal, in the sense that they are both perfectly adapted to the flow and extremely robust. 相似文献
33.
Zonally propagating wave solutions of the linearized shallow water equations (LSWE) in a zonal channel on the rotating spherical earth are constructed from numerical solutions of eigenvalue equations that yield the meridional variation of the waves' amplitudes and the phase speeds of these waves. An approximate Schrödinger equation, whose potential depends on one parameter only, is derived, and this equation yields analytic expressions for the dispersion relations and for the meridional structure of the waves' amplitudes in two asymptotic cases. These analytic solutions validate the accuracy of the numerical solutions of the exact eigenvalue equation. Our results show the existence of Kelvin, Poincaré and Rossby waves that are harmonic for large radius of deformation. For small radius of deformation, the latter two waves vary as Hermite functions. In addition, our results show that the mixed mode of the planar theory (a meridional wavenumber zero mode that behaves as a Rossby wave for large zonal wavenumbers and as a Poincaré wave for small ones) does not exist on a sphere; instead, the first Rossby mode and the first westward propagating Poincaré mode are separated by the anti-Kelvin mode for all values of the zonal wavenumber. 相似文献
34.
Evaluation of a regional climate model using in situ temperature observations over the Balkan Peninsula 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
By E. KOSTOPOULOU K. TOLIKA I. TEGOULIAS C. GIANNAKOPOULOS S. SOMOT C. ANAGNOSTOPOULOU P. MAHERAS 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(3):357-370
Climate model data provide large, dense coverage and long time-series, characteristics that are advantageous in the study of climate. However, it is not recommended that such data be used in any region without prior evaluation of their reliability based on comparisons with in situ observations. In this study, the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature data from the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model (with a 25-km horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-40 reanalysis) have been assessed for 53 stations across the Balkan Peninsula. The model temperatures corresponding to each station were extracted from their nearest land grids. The model data were first compared with observations and subsequently examined for their ability to identify extreme temperature events. In general, the model was found to be quite accurate in describing the seasonal cycle, as well as simulating the spatial distribution of temperature. Simulations were more realistic for stations along coastlines, highlighting the constraints of the topographic forcing in the simulations. Assessing the performance of the model to determine extremes (warm and cold spells), it was found to be better at detecting cold spells and has a tendency toward overestimating the frequency of occurrence of warm spells, particularly in summer. 相似文献
35.
On the reliability of computed chaotic solutions of non-linear differential equations 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
By SHIJUN LIAO 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(4):550-564
36.
By ANDREA MOLOD 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(3):381-393
An 'alternate grid' (GridAlt) technique is presented, which allows the different components of a general circulation model's governing equations to be computed on distinct grids chosen for that component or process. In the implementation presented here, the tendencies of state variables from the physical parametrizations are computed on a vertical grid with very fine resolution near the surface, whereas the remaining terms in the equations of motion are computed using an Eta coordinate with coarser vertical resolution.
Results from a suite of aquaplanet experiments show that much of the benefit of increased vertical resolution in the whole model can be realized by enhancing the vertical resolution of the 'physics grid' using GridAlt. The benefit is realized in the fields which are computed directly in the physical parametrizations, and in the vertical structure of the relative humidity and mass streamfunction. Results from a suite of realistically configured simulations demonstrated an impact of GridAlt that was similar to its impact in the simplified simulations, as well as an improved response to El Niño Southern Oscillation forcing. It is concluded that the present implementation of GridAlt offers a practical way to allow GCMs to better capture the near-surface structure of the atmosphere. 相似文献
Results from a suite of aquaplanet experiments show that much of the benefit of increased vertical resolution in the whole model can be realized by enhancing the vertical resolution of the 'physics grid' using GridAlt. The benefit is realized in the fields which are computed directly in the physical parametrizations, and in the vertical structure of the relative humidity and mass streamfunction. Results from a suite of realistically configured simulations demonstrated an impact of GridAlt that was similar to its impact in the simplified simulations, as well as an improved response to El Niño Southern Oscillation forcing. It is concluded that the present implementation of GridAlt offers a practical way to allow GCMs to better capture the near-surface structure of the atmosphere. 相似文献
37.
Observations suggest that the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulations, associated with intraseasonal variabilties, are dominated more by the vorticity than the divergence. The present paper examines the consistency of the above observations with linear equatorial wave theories. Both free and forced linear waves are considered. The free equatorial waves are classified into two major categories: (1) the Rossby waves, strongly dominated by vorticity and (2) the inertial-gravity waves, relatively dominated by the divergence. Both the Kelvin and the mixed-Rossby gravity waves are intermediate of these two major categories.
In the forced case, the wave response is predominantly inertial-gravity wave-like for periods less than 5 d, thus predominantly divergent. On the other hand, for forcing with the longer periods, the wave response closely following free Rossby-wave structures, asymptotically approaches to a non-divergent state. The asymptotic tendency for non-divergence is found to be much stronger than observed. The difference is so stark that, notably, the tropical intraseasonal variability cannot be consistent with linear equatorial waves theories. 相似文献
In the forced case, the wave response is predominantly inertial-gravity wave-like for periods less than 5 d, thus predominantly divergent. On the other hand, for forcing with the longer periods, the wave response closely following free Rossby-wave structures, asymptotically approaches to a non-divergent state. The asymptotic tendency for non-divergence is found to be much stronger than observed. The difference is so stark that, notably, the tropical intraseasonal variability cannot be consistent with linear equatorial waves theories. 相似文献
38.
By N. KAADEN A. MASSLING A. SCHLADITZ T. MÜLLER K. KANDLER L. SCHÜTZ B. WEINZIERL A. PETZOLD M. TESCHE S. LEINERT C. DEUTSCHER M. EBERT S. WEINBRUCH A. WIEDENSOHLER 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2009,61(1):51-63
The Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) was conducted in May and June 2006 in Tinfou, Morocco. A H-TDMA system and a H-DMA-APS system were used to obtain hygroscopic properties of mineral dust particles at 85% RH. Dynamic shape factors of 1.11, 1.19 and 1.25 were determined for the volume equivalent diameters 720, 840 and 960 nm, respectively.
During a dust event, the hydrophobic number fraction of 250 and 350 nm particles increased significantly from 30 and 65% to 53 and 75%, respectively, indicating that mineral dust particles can be as small as 200 nm in diameter. Log-normal functions for mineral dust number size distributions were obtained from total particle number size distributions and fractions of hydrophobic particles. The geometric mean diameter for Saharan dust particles was 715 nm during the dust event and 570 nm for the Saharan background aerosol.
Measurements of hygroscopic growth showed that the Saharan aerosol consists of an anthropogenic fraction (predominantly non natural sulphate and carbonaceous particles) and of mineral dust particles. Hygroscopic growth and hysteresis curve measurements of the 'more' hygroscopic particle fraction indicated ammonium sulphate as a main component of the anthropogenic aerosol. Particles larger than 720 nm in diameter were completely hydrophobic meaning that mineral dust particles are not hygroscopic. 相似文献
During a dust event, the hydrophobic number fraction of 250 and 350 nm particles increased significantly from 30 and 65% to 53 and 75%, respectively, indicating that mineral dust particles can be as small as 200 nm in diameter. Log-normal functions for mineral dust number size distributions were obtained from total particle number size distributions and fractions of hydrophobic particles. The geometric mean diameter for Saharan dust particles was 715 nm during the dust event and 570 nm for the Saharan background aerosol.
Measurements of hygroscopic growth showed that the Saharan aerosol consists of an anthropogenic fraction (predominantly non natural sulphate and carbonaceous particles) and of mineral dust particles. Hygroscopic growth and hysteresis curve measurements of the 'more' hygroscopic particle fraction indicated ammonium sulphate as a main component of the anthropogenic aerosol. Particles larger than 720 nm in diameter were completely hydrophobic meaning that mineral dust particles are not hygroscopic. 相似文献
39.
By D. ORRELL 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2002,54(4):350-362
The atmosphere is often cited as an archetypal example of a chaotic system, where prediction is limited by the model's sensitivity to initial conditions. Experiments have indeed shown that forecast errors, as measured in 500 hPa heights, can double in 1.5 d or less. Recent work, however, has shown that, when errors are measured in total energy, model error is the primary contributor to forecast inaccuracy. In this paper we attempt to reconcile these apparently conflicting sets of results by examining the role of the chosen metric. Using a simple medium-dimensional model for illustration, it is found that the metric has a strong effect, not just on apparent error growth, but on the perceived causes of error. If an insufficiently global metric is used, then it may appear that error is due to sensitivity to initial condition, when in fact it is caused by sensitivity to error in the other variables. If the goal is to diagnose the causes of error, a sufficiently global metric must be used. The simple model is used to predict the internal rate of growth of the ECMWF operational model, and preliminary results compared. It is found that both 500 hPa and total energy results are consistent with high model error and a relatively low internal rate of growth. Experiments are suggested to further verify the results for weather models. 相似文献
40.
Sanjay K. Srivastava Sameer Saran Rolf A. de By V. K. Dadhwal 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(3):427-454
Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a geo-information system approach for management of forest fire in Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu, India, with the objective to develop a forest fire likelihood model, integrating GIS and knowledge-based approach for predicting fire-sensitive initiation areas considering major causative and anti-causative factors. Amongst the various causative factors investigated, it was found that wildlife-dependent factor (antler collection and poaching) contributed significantly to fire occurrence followed by management-dependent factors (uncontrolled tourism and grazing), with much less influence of demographic factors. Similarly, anti-causative factor (stationing of anti-poaching/ fire camps) was considered as quite significant.
The likelihood model so developed, envisaging various factors and flammability, accounted for different scenarios as a result of pair-wise comparison on an ordinal scale in a knowledge matrix. The inferential statistics computed indicated the robustness of the model and its insensitivity to moderate changes. It makes it possible for this forest fire likelihood model to predict and prevent a forest fire in an effective and scientific manner because it can assume forest fire likelihood in real time and present in proper time. 相似文献