Evaluation of a regional climate model using in situ temperature observations over the Balkan Peninsula   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

By E. KOSTOPOULOU  K. TOLIKA  I. TEGOULIAS  C. GIANNAKOPOULOS  S. SOMOT  C. ANAGNOSTOPOULOU  P. MAHERAS 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(3):357-370

Climate model data provide large, dense coverage and long time-series, characteristics that are advantageous in the study of climate. However, it is not recommended that such data be used in any region without prior evaluation of their reliability based on comparisons with in situ observations. In this study, the accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature data from the ALADIN-Climate regional climate model (with a 25-km horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by the ERA-40 reanalysis) have been assessed for 53 stations across the Balkan Peninsula. The model temperatures corresponding to each station were extracted from their nearest land grids. The model data were first compared with observations and subsequently examined for their ability to identify extreme temperature events. In general, the model was found to be quite accurate in describing the seasonal cycle, as well as simulating the spatial distribution of temperature. Simulations were more realistic for stations along coastlines, highlighting the constraints of the topographic forcing in the simulations. Assessing the performance of the model to determine extremes (warm and cold spells), it was found to be better at detecting cold spells and has a tendency toward overestimating the frequency of occurrence of warm spells, particularly in summer.  相似文献   

Running GCM physics and dynamics on different grids: algorithm and tests     

By ANDREA MOLOD 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(3):381-393

An 'alternate grid' (GridAlt) technique is presented, which allows the different components of a general circulation model's governing equations to be computed on distinct grids chosen for that component or process. In the implementation presented here, the tendencies of state variables from the physical parametrizations are computed on a vertical grid with very fine resolution near the surface, whereas the remaining terms in the equations of motion are computed using an Eta coordinate with coarser vertical resolution.
Results from a suite of aquaplanet experiments show that much of the benefit of increased vertical resolution in the whole model can be realized by enhancing the vertical resolution of the 'physics grid' using GridAlt. The benefit is realized in the fields which are computed directly in the physical parametrizations, and in the vertical structure of the relative humidity and mass streamfunction. Results from a suite of realistically configured simulations demonstrated an impact of GridAlt that was similar to its impact in the simplified simulations, as well as an improved response to El Niño Southern Oscillation forcing. It is concluded that the present implementation of GridAlt offers a practical way to allow GCMs to better capture the near-surface structure of the atmosphere.  相似文献   

Is asymptotic non-divergence of the large-scale tropical atmosphere consistent with equatorial wave theories?     

By KEVIN DELAYEN  JUN-ICHI YANO 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(4):491-497

Observations suggest that the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulations, associated with intraseasonal variabilties, are dominated more by the vorticity than the divergence. The present paper examines the consistency of the above observations with linear equatorial wave theories. Both free and forced linear waves are considered. The free equatorial waves are classified into two major categories: (1) the Rossby waves, strongly dominated by vorticity and (2) the inertial-gravity waves, relatively dominated by the divergence. Both the Kelvin and the mixed-Rossby gravity waves are intermediate of these two major categories.
In the forced case, the wave response is predominantly inertial-gravity wave-like for periods less than 5 d, thus predominantly divergent. On the other hand, for forcing with the longer periods, the wave response closely following free Rossby-wave structures, asymptotically approaches to a non-divergent state. The asymptotic tendency for non-divergence is found to be much stronger than observed. The difference is so stark that, notably, the tropical intraseasonal variability cannot be consistent with linear equatorial waves theories.  相似文献   

State of mixing, shape factor, number size distribution, and hygroscopic growth of the Saharan anthropogenic and mineral dust aerosol at Tinfou, Morocco     

By N. KAADEN  A. MASSLING  A. SCHLADITZ  T. MÜLLER  K. KANDLER  L. SCHÜTZ  B. WEINZIERL  A. PETZOLD  M. TESCHE  S. LEINERT  C. DEUTSCHER  M. EBERT  S. WEINBRUCH  A. WIEDENSOHLER 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2009,61(1):51-63

The Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) was conducted in May and June 2006 in Tinfou, Morocco. A H-TDMA system and a H-DMA-APS system were used to obtain hygroscopic properties of mineral dust particles at 85% RH. Dynamic shape factors of 1.11, 1.19 and 1.25 were determined for the volume equivalent diameters 720, 840 and 960 nm, respectively.
During a dust event, the hydrophobic number fraction of 250 and 350 nm particles increased significantly from 30 and 65% to 53 and 75%, respectively, indicating that mineral dust particles can be as small as 200 nm in diameter. Log-normal functions for mineral dust number size distributions were obtained from total particle number size distributions and fractions of hydrophobic particles. The geometric mean diameter for Saharan dust particles was 715 nm during the dust event and 570 nm for the Saharan background aerosol.
Measurements of hygroscopic growth showed that the Saharan aerosol consists of an anthropogenic fraction (predominantly non natural sulphate and carbonaceous particles) and of mineral dust particles. Hygroscopic growth and hysteresis curve measurements of the 'more' hygroscopic particle fraction indicated ammonium sulphate as a main component of the anthropogenic aerosol. Particles larger than 720 nm in diameter were completely hydrophobic meaning that mineral dust particles are not hygroscopic.  相似文献   

Role of the metric in forecast error growth: how chaotic is the weather?     

By D. ORRELL 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2002,54(4):350-362

The atmosphere is often cited as an archetypal example of a chaotic system, where prediction is limited by the model's sensitivity to initial conditions. Experiments have indeed shown that forecast errors, as measured in 500 hPa heights, can double in 1.5 d or less. Recent work, however, has shown that, when errors are measured in total energy, model error is the primary contributor to forecast inaccuracy. In this paper we attempt to reconcile these apparently conflicting sets of results by examining the role of the chosen metric. Using a simple medium-dimensional model for illustration, it is found that the metric has a strong effect, not just on apparent error growth, but on the perceived causes of error. If an insufficiently global metric is used, then it may appear that error is due to sensitivity to initial condition, when in fact it is caused by sensitivity to error in the other variables. If the goal is to diagnose the causes of error, a sufficiently global metric must be used. The simple model is used to predict the internal rate of growth of the ECMWF operational model, and preliminary results compared. It is found that both 500 hPa and total energy results are consistent with high model error and a relatively low internal rate of growth. Experiments are suggested to further verify the results for weather models.  相似文献   

A geo-information system approach for forest fire likelihood based on causative and anti-causative factors     

Sanjay K. Srivastava  Sameer Saran  Rolf A. de By  V. K. Dadhwal 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(3):427-454

Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a geo-information system approach for management of forest fire in Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu, India, with the objective to develop a forest fire likelihood model, integrating GIS and knowledge-based approach for predicting fire-sensitive initiation areas considering major causative and anti-causative factors. Amongst the various causative factors investigated, it was found that wildlife-dependent factor (antler collection and poaching) contributed significantly to fire occurrence followed by management-dependent factors (uncontrolled tourism and grazing), with much less influence of demographic factors. Similarly, anti-causative factor (stationing of anti-poaching/ fire camps) was considered as quite significant.

The likelihood model so developed, envisaging various factors and flammability, accounted for different scenarios as a result of pair-wise comparison on an ordinal scale in a knowledge matrix. The inferential statistics computed indicated the robustness of the model and its insensitivity to moderate changes. It makes it possible for this forest fire likelihood model to predict and prevent a forest fire in an effective and scientific manner because it can assume forest fire likelihood in real time and present in proper time.  相似文献   

Long-term observations of atmospheric CO₂ and carbon isotopes at continental sites in Germany     

INGEBORG LEVIN  ROLF. GRAUL  NEIL B. A. TRIVETT 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》1995,47(1-2):23-34

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On the reliability of computed chaotic solutions of non-linear differential equations   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

By SHIJUN LIAO 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(4):550-564

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Bayesian perspective of the unconventional approach for assimilating aliased radar radial velocities     

By QIN XU 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2009,61(5):631-634

The global minimization problem for directly assimilating aliased radial velocities is derived in terms of Bayesian estimation by folding the domain of the original Gaussian non-aliased observation probability density function (pdf) into the Nyquist interval. By truncating the folded tails of the observation pdf, the observation term in the costfunction recovers the aliased observation term formulated previously by an unconventional approach. This establishes the theoretical basis for the unconventional approach and quantifies the involved approximation. The alias-robust radar wind analysis developed based on the unconventional approach is also revisited from the Bayesian perspective.  相似文献   

A skeleton design theory for spatial data infrastructure     

Rolf A. de By  Rob Lemmens  Javier Morales 《Earth Science Informatics》2009,2(4):299-313

In this paper, we look into the theory of designing geoservice systems, i.e., SDI networks and their constituent SDI nodes. As the field of SDI is strongly about bridging between geoservice systems, interoperability and harmonisation, it is not surprising that standardisation efforts are of crucial importance in it. These efforts have historically addressed abstract and concrete content models for data and metadata exchange, as well as abstract and concrete behavioural models for computational processes. The list of standards that are in use in the SDI field continues to expand, and reaches out to neighbouring fields such as sensor nets. We argue that given these trends, the resulting levels of standardisation in actual systems, and the complexity of geoservice systems in general, it appears only natural to look into the possibility to define a standardised design theory for SDI and its nodes, which addresses the function base and the communication base. Specifically, we provide an overview of those components that need to be designed, and what are their relationships. We do so in an abstract way, focussing on the concern of information content in this paper, and only hinting at an appropriate theory of realisation based on our skeleton theory.  相似文献