Future heat vulnerability in California, Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Scott C. Sheridan  Michael J. Allen  Cameron C. Lee  Laurence S. Kalkstein 《Climatic change》2012,115(2):311-326

Through the 21^st century, a significant increase in heat events is likely across California (USA). Beyond any climate change, the state will become more vulnerable through demographic changes resulting in a rapidly aging population. To assess these impacts, future heat-related mortality estimates are derived for nine metropolitan areas in the state for the remainder of the century. Heat-related mortality is first assessed by initially determining historical weather-type mortality relationships for each metropolitan area. These are then projected into the future based on predicted weather types created in Part I. Estimates account for several levels of uncertainty: for each metropolitan area, mortality values are produced for five different climate model-scenarios, three different population projections (along with a constant-population model), and with and without partial acclimatization. Major urban centers could have a greater than tenfold increase in short-term increases in heat-related mortality in the over 65 age group by the 2090s.  相似文献   

Erratum to: The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services     

M. Rebecca Shaw  Linwood Pendleton  D. Richard Cameron  Belinda Morris  Dominique Bachelet  Kirk Klausmeyer  Jason MacKenzie  David R. Conklin  Gregory N. Bratman  James Lenihan  Erik Haunreiter  Christopher Daly  Patrick R. Roehrdanz 《Climatic change》2012,110(3-4):1067-1067

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A constitutive model for sand based on non-linear elasticity and the state parameter   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

D.A. Cameron  J.P. Carter 《Computers and Geotechnics》2009,36(7):1219-1228

The paper describes the development of a constitutive model for a poorly graded sand, which was used in geotechnical experiments on buried pipes (reported elsewhere). The sand was tested extensively in the laboratory to determine the state parameter constants. Triaxial tests on the sand included conventional drained triaxial compression tests, as well as more specialized shearing tests at constant mean effective stress and others at constant volume. Single element simulation of the triaxial tests was performed to validate the proposed constitutive model. The adopted model allowed non-linear elastic behaviour prior to yielding. After yielding of the sand, the state parameter-based model for the sand permitted non-associated plastic flow. Dilation and frictional strength were both dependent on the current value of the state parameter. The combination of laboratory testing and single element modelling resulted in the selection of a single set of material constants for the soil, which adequately described the full range of triaxial tests. Subsequently the model was applied to the problem of a plate loading test on the sand and the model predictions were compared with the test data.  相似文献   

Early Ipswichian (last interglacial) sea level rise in the channel region: Stone Point Site of Special Scientific Interest,Hampshire, England     

Rebecca M. Briant  Martin R. Bates  Steve Boreham  Nigel G. Cameron  G. Russell Coope  Michael H. Field  B. Marcus Hatch  Jonathan A. Holmes  David H. Keen  Aiobhean A. Kilfeather  Kirsty E.H. Penkman  Rianne M.J. Simons  Jean-Luc Schwenninger  Francis F. Wenban-Smith  Nicola J. Whitehouse  John E. Whittaker 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2019,130(1):1-26

Constraining the speed of sea level rise at the start of an interglacial is important to understanding the size of the ‘window of opportunity’ available for hominin migration. This is particularly important during the last interglacial when there is no evidence for significant hominin occupation anywhere in Britain. There are very few finer grained fossiliferous sequences in the Channel region that can be used to constrain sea level rise and they are preserved only to the north of the Channel, in England. Of these, the sequence at Stone Point SSSI is by far the most complete. Data from this sequence has been previously reported, and discussed at a Quaternary Research Association Field Meeting, where a number of further questions were raised that necessitated further data generation. In this paper, we report new data from this sequence – thin section analysis, isotopic determinations on ostracod shells, new Optical Stimulated Luminescence ages and Amino Acid Recem analyses. These show early sea level rise in this sequence, starting during the pre-temperate vegetation zone IpI, but no early warming. The implications of this almost certainly last interglacial sequence for the human colonisation of Britain and our understanding of the stratigraphic relationship of interglacial estuarine deposits with their related fluvial terrace sequences is explored.  相似文献   

Influence of Seasonal Variations in Sea Level on the Salinity Regime of a Coastal Groundwater–Fed Wetland          下载免费PDF全文

Cameron Wood  Glenn A. Harrington 《Ground water》2015,53(1):90-98

Seasonal variations in sea level are often neglected in studies of coastal aquifers; however, they may have important controls on processes such as submarine groundwater discharge, sea water intrusion, and groundwater discharge to coastal springs and wetlands. We investigated seasonal variations in salinity in a groundwater‐fed coastal wetland (the RAMSAR listed Piccaninnie Ponds in South Australia) and found that salinity peaked during winter, coincident with seasonal sea level peaks. Closer examination of salinity variations revealed a relationship between changes in sea level and changes in salinity, indicating that sea level–driven movement of the fresh water‐sea water interface influences the salinity of discharging groundwater in the wetland. Moreover, the seasonal control of sea level on wetland salinity seems to override the influence of seasonal recharge. A two‐dimensional variable density model helped validate this conceptual model of coastal groundwater discharge by showing that fluctuations in groundwater salinity in a coastal aquifer can be driven by a seasonal coastal boundary condition in spite of seasonal recharge/discharge dynamics. Because seasonal variations in sea level and coastal wetlands are ubiquitous throughout the world, these findings have important implications for monitoring and management of coastal groundwater–dependent ecosystems.  相似文献   

A comparative simulation study of coupled THM processes and their effect on fractured rock permeability around nuclear waste repositories     

Jonny Rutqvist  Deborah Barr  Jens T. Birkholzer  Kiyoshi Fujisaki  Olaf Kolditz  Quan-Sheng Liu  Tomoo Fujita  Wenqing Wang  Cheng-Yuan Zhang 《Environmental Geology》2009,57(6):1347-1360

This paper presents an international, multiple-code, simulation study of coupled thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes and their effect on permeability and fluid flow in fractured rock around heated underground nuclear waste emplacement drifts. Simulations were conducted considering two types of repository settings (1) open emplacement drifts in relatively shallow unsaturated volcanic rock, and (2) backfilled emplacement drifts in deeper saturated crystalline rock. The results showed that for the two assumed repository settings, the dominant mechanism of changes in rock permeability was thermal–mechanically induced closure (reduced aperture) of vertical fractures, caused by thermal stress resulting from repository-wide heating of the rock mass. The magnitude of thermal–mechanically induced changes in permeability was more substantial in the case of an emplacement drift located in a relatively shallow, low-stress environment where the rock is more compliant, allowing more substantial fracture closure during thermal stressing. However, in both of the assumed repository settings in this study, the thermal–mechanically induced changes in permeability caused relatively small changes in the flow field, with most changes occurring in the vicinity of the emplacement drifts.  相似文献   

Double-averaged velocity and stress distributions for hydraulically-smooth and transitionally-rough turbulent flows     

Stuart M. Cameron  Vladimir I. Nikora  Stephen E. Coleman 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(3):642-653

We analyse experimental measurements of turbulent open-channel flow over hydraulically-smooth and transitionally-rough beds using the double-averaging methodology. Oil with a viscosity of 15×10^?6 m2/s is used instead of water so that transitional-range roughness Reynolds numbers can be achieved with large (11.1 mm) roughness elements, allowing spatial variations in the mean velocity field to more easily be measured. Distributions of double-averaged velocities, turbulence intensities, form-induced intensities, and viscous, Reynolds, form-induced and total shear stresses are studied with comparisons made between distributions for hydraulically-smooth, transitionally-rough, and fully-rough boundaries. Measured streamwise turbulence intensities for all experiments peaked at a constant distance from the bed (z ⁺+d ⁺ = 15) when elevation scale is adjusted using the zero-plane displacement d for the logarithmic velocity distribution. This collapse suggests that turbulence intensity distributions may be useful in assessing appropriate values of d for transitionally-rough and fully-rough boundaries. Form-induced normal and shear stresses above the roughness tops were found to collapse towards a common curve independent of roughness Reynolds number.  相似文献   

On the response of yielding seismically isolated structures     

Masaru Kikuchi  Cameron J. Black  Ian D. Aiken 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(5):659-679

This paper investigates the seismic response of yielding isolated structures. To establish a general understanding of the nonlinear response of seismically isolated structures, this study first investigates the nonlinear response of isolated structures subjected to steady‐state harmonic motion and nonlinear transient ground excitation. The response of both viscously damped and hysteretically damped isolation systems is investigated in three phases. Initially, basic insights are gained through simple nonlinear two degrees of freedom (2‐DOF) models subjected to harmonic motion of varying frequencies. Next, the transient response analysis of the nonlinear 2‐DOF model is investigated for a wide range of isolation system and superstructure properties. The results obtained from both approaches indicate that the yielding behavior of a structure on an isolation system is significantly different from that of the comparable fixed‐base structure. Finally, the response of the nonlinear 2‐DOF system model is compared with that of a 15‐story, three‐dimensional model. Based on the results of these analytical investigations, some important considerations for the design of seismically isolated structures are presented. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Population biology of coral trout species in eastern Torres Strait: Implications for fishery management     

Ashley J. Williams  Leanne M. Currey  Gavin A. Begg  Cameron D. Murchie  Aaron C. Ballagh 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

Coral trout (Plectropomus spp.) are the main target species for commercial fishers in the eastern Torres Strait Reef Line Fishery (ETS RLF). The four species of coral trout known to occur in Torres Strait: Plectropomus leopardus, Plectropomus maculatus, Plectropomus areolatus and Plectropomus laevis are currently managed as a single species in Torres Strait, as there is no species-specific biological information available for the region which could be used to assess whether species differ in their response to fishing pressure. The aim of our study was to determine whether it is appropriate (biologically) to manage coral trout in the ETS RLF as a single species group or whether different management arrangements are required for some species. We used catch data and biological data from samples collected by commercial fishers to examine the distribution within Torres Strait and estimate a range of biological parameters for P. leopardus, P. maculatus and P. areolatus. Insufficient P. laevis samples were collected to reliably examine this species. Results indicated that the population biology, particularly the reproductive biology, of P. areolatus was substantially different to both P. leopardus and P. maculatus. Although it is difficult to predict the response to fishing, P. areolatus may be more vulnerable to fishing than P. leopardus and P. maculatus, due to the larger size at sex change observed for this species and the very low proportion of males protected by the current minimum size limit. Therefore, while the common management arrangements for P. leopardus and P. maculatus appear to be adequate for these species, separate management arrangements are needed for the sustainable harvest of P. areolatus populations in the ETS. Specifically, we recommend the introduction of a maximum size limit for P. areolatus, in addition to the current minimum size limit, which may allow a proportion of males some protection from fishing.  相似文献   

The partial volatilization of Mercury     

A.G.W. Cameron 《Icarus》1985,64(2):285-294

During recent years my research on the primitive solar nebular has followed two main themes: (1) Very early in the development of the nebula conditions probably favored the occurence of major gaseous instabilities leading to the formation of giant gaseous protoplanets, but the rapid rise of the external temperature soon evaporated the envelopes of these protoplanets, possibly leaving behind precipitated solids which formed the cores and mantles of the terrestrial planets. (2) Models of the nebula indicate a later stage when conditions in the inner Solar System became very hot; at the position of Mercury the temperature was probably in the range 2500–3500°K. This leads to the hypothesis that the original protomercury was a body substantially more massive than the present planet and of normal composition, but that when it was immersed in the high-temperature field of the dissipating solar nebula, most of the rocky mantle was vaporized and mixed into the solar nebula gases and carried away by them. This hypothesis is investigated in the present paper. For simplicity the vaporization of a mantle composed of enstatite, MgSiO₃, was computed for a planet with 2.25 the mass of Mercury at a temperature of 3000°K. It is argued that the mantle could probably be largely removed in the available time of 3 × 10⁴ years. Subsequent accretion would restore some magnesium silicates to the mantle of the planet.  相似文献