Impact of projected SST changes on summer rainfall in southeastern South America   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

C. Junquas  C. S. Vera  L. Li  H. Le Treut 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(7-8):1569-1589

Recent studies have shown that global warming and associated sea-surface temperature (SST) changes may trigger an important rainfall increase in southeastern South America (SESA) during the austral summer (December–January–February, DJF). The goal of this paper is to provide some insight into processes which may link global and SESA changes. For this purpose, a “two-way nesting” system coupling interactively the regional and global versions of the LMDZ4 atmospheric model is used to study the response to prescribed SST changes. The regional model is a variable-grid version of the global model, with a zoom focused over South America. An ensemble of simulations forced by distinct patterns of DJF SST changes has been carried out using a decomposition of full SST changes into their longitudinal and latitudinal components. The full SST changes are based on projections for the end of the twenty-first century from a multi-model ensemble of WCRP/CMIP3. Results confirm the presence of a major rainfall dipole structure, characterized by an increase in SESA and a decrease in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone region. Rainfall changes found in the WCRP/CMIP3 models are largely explained as a response of this dipole structure to the zonally-asymmetric (or longitudinal) component of SST changes. The rainfall response to the zonal-mean (or latitudinal) SST changes (including the global warming signal itself) shows an opposite contribution. The processes explaining the role of zonally-asymmetric SST changes involve remote effects of SST warming over the equatorial Indian and Pacific oceans inducing an atmospheric wave-train extended across the South Pacific into South America.  相似文献   

Brazil beyond 2020: from deforestation to the energy challenge     

Emilio Lèbre La Rovere  Carolina Burle Dubeux  Amaro Olimpio Pereira Jr  William Wills 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):70-86

The main assumptions and findings are presented on a comparative analysis of three GHG long-term emissions scenarios for Brazil. Since 1990, land-use change has been the most important source of GHG emissions in the country. The voluntary goals to limit Brazilian GHG emissions pledged a reduction in between 36.1% and 38.9% of GHG emissions projected to 2020, to be 6–10% lower than in 2005. Brazil is in a good position to meet the voluntary mitigation goals pledged to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) up to 2020: recent efforts to reduce deforestation have been successful and avoided deforestation will form the bulk of the emissions reduction commitment. In 2020, if governmental mitigation goals are met, then GHG emissions from the energy system would become the largest in the country. After 2020, if no additional mitigation actions are implemented, GHG emissions will increase again in the period 2020–2030, due to population and economic growth driving energy demand, supply and GHG emissions. However, Brazil is in a strong position to take a lead in low-carbon economic and social development due to its huge endowment of renewable energy resources allowing for additional mitigation actions to be adopted after 2020.

Policy relevance

The period beyond 2020 is now relevant in climate policy due to the Durban Platform agreeing a ‘protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force’ that will have effect from 2020. After 2020, Brazil will be in a situation more similar to other industrialized countries, faced with a new challenge of economic development with low GHG energy-related emissions, requiring the adoption of mitigation policies and measures targeted at the energy system. Unlike the mitigation actions in the land-use change sector, where most of the funding will come from the national budgets due to sovereignty concerns, the huge financial resources needed to develop low-carbon transport and energy infrastructure could benefit from soft loans channelled to the country through nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).  相似文献   

Decadal predictability and prediction skill of sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific region     

Ramiro I. Saurral  Javier Garc&#;a-Serrano  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Leandro B. D&#;az  Carolina S. Vera 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(9):3945-3958

The South Pacific Ocean is a key driver of climate variability within the Southern Hemisphere at different time scales. Previous studies have characterized the main mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in that region as a dipolar pattern of SST anomalies that cover subtropical and extratropical latitudes (the South Pacific Ocean Dipole, or SPOD), which is related to precipitation and temperature anomalies over several regions throughout the Southern Hemisphere. Using that relationship and the reported low predictive skill of precipitation anomalies over the Southern Hemisphere, this work explores the predictability and prediction skill of the SPOD in near-term climate hindcasts using a set of state-of-the-art forecast systems. Results show that predictability greatly benefits from initializing the hindcasts beyond the prescribed radiative forcing, and is modulated by known modes of climate variability, namely El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Furthermore, the models are capable of simulating the spatial pattern of the observed SPOD even without initialization, which suggests that the key dynamical processes are properly represented. However, the hindcast of the actual phase of the mode is only achieved when the forecast systems are initialized, pointing at SPOD variability to not be radiatively forced but probably internally generated. The comparison with the performance of an empirical prediction based on persistence suggests that initialization may provide skillful information for SST anomalies, outperforming damping processes, up to 2–3 years into the future.  相似文献   

Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland,the Czech Republic     

Vera Potop  Pavel Zahraniček  Luboš Türkott  Petr Štěpánek  Josef Soukup 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(1):1-19

This study has, for the first time, analysed in detail the risk occurrences of the last spring frost, first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period during the growing season of vegetable crops at a high horizontal resolution of 10 km in the Elbe River lowland in the Czech Republic. The daily minimum air temperature from 116 grid points throughout the studied area for the period 1961–2011 was used. The daily values of minimum air temperature ranges of 0 to ?1.1 °C, ?1.2 to ?2.2 °C and below ?2.2 °C were considered to constitute mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the last spring frost, the date of the first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period in the Elbe River lowland is provided. Secondly, the estimation of the probability of a later date in the spring and an earlier date in the fall for various severe frost events and the length of the frost-free period is determined. Third, the changes in the timing of the last and first frosts of the three severities, as well as the length of the frost-free period, are evaluated. From 1961 to 2011, the Elbe River lowland has experienced a decrease in the number of frost days, while the length of the frost-free period between the last spring frost and the first fall frost has increased. The temporal evolution of the frost-free period anomalies displays two distinct periods: a shortening of the frost-free period in the 1960s and an intensified lengthening of the frost-free period since the 1980s. Whereas the latest spring frost has ended on an earlier date across the Elbe River lowland, the first frost date in the fall has generally been delayed to a later date. The dates of the last spring frost have advanced by ?0.21 days per year on average. The fall dates are delayed up to 0.18 days per year, whereas the frost-free period is lengthening by up to 0.39 days per year on average. However, regional frost series suggests that the frost-free period exhibits a large amount of inter-annual variability. In terms of the growth of field vegetables, a late spring frost remains a risk factor, but the degree of risk has decreased. There is a 25 % chance of the occurrence of dangerous spring frosts during the planting of field vegetables after 3rd May, but after 15th May, the risk is only 10 %.  相似文献   

Does parameterization influence the performance of slope stability model results? A case study in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil     

Carolina de Lima Neves Seefelder  Sérgio Koide  Martin Mergili 《Landslides》2017,14(4):1389-1401

We produce factor of safety (FOS) and slope failure susceptibility index (SFSI) maps for a 4.4-km² study area in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in order to explore the sensitivity of the geotechnical and geohydraulic parameterization on the model outcomes. Thereby, we consider parameter spaces instead of combinations of discrete values. SFSI is defined as the fraction of tested parameter combinations within a given space yielding FOS <1. We repeat our physically based calculations for various parameter spaces, employing the infinite slope stability model and the sliding surface model of the software r.slope.stability for testing the geotechnical parameters and the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS) for testing the geohydraulic parameters. Whilst the results vary considerably in terms of their conservativeness, the ability to reproduce the spatial patterns of the observed landslide release areas is relatively insensitive to the variation of the parameterization as long as there is sufficient pattern in the results. We conclude that landslide susceptibility maps yielded by catchment-scale physically based models should not be interpreted in absolute terms and suggest that efforts to develop better strategies for dealing with the uncertainties in the spatial variation of the key parameters should be given priority in future slope stability modelling efforts.  相似文献   

Accumulation of lead and associated metals (Cu and Zn) at different growth stages of soybean crops in lead-contaminated soils: food security and crop quality implications     

Andrés Blanco  María J. Salazar  Carolina Vergara Cid  María L. Pignata  Judith H. Rodriguez 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(4):182

The Pb, Cu and Zn content, the physicochemical parameters in soils (EC, OM%, soil texture and pH) and the metal accumulation of Glycine max plants at different growth stages were evaluated. Topsoil and soybean samples were collected in the vicinity of a former battery-recycling plant, with the results showing that only the concentrations of Pb in soils corresponding to sites located near to the lead emission source were above the maximum permissible levels. However, soybean crops accumulated Pb above the permitted levels at all studied sites, revealing a potential toxicological risk for direct consumption. Thus, the accumulation of Pb in soybean was directly related to the translocation factor of the metal from roots to aerial parts of the plant. This was evidenced as a lower accumulation at early growth stages and a higher accumulation at maturity, with the distribution between organs coinciding with nutrient incorporation and remobilization in the plant. Moreover, the bioconcentration factor revealed that the bioaccumulation of lead in soybean was a consequence of the lead-recycling plant activity in the past. Taken together, results of the present study demonstrated that soybean crops can incorporate and accumulate potentially toxic metals, such as lead.  相似文献   

A simple method to model the reduced environment of lake bottom sapropel formation     

Gaskova  Olga L.  Strakhovenko  Vera D.  Ermolaeva  Nadezhda I.  Zarubina  Eugene Yu.  Ovdina  Ekaterina A. 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2017,35(4):956-966

The Kambala and Barchin brackish lakes(Baraba steppe,southern West Siberia) contain an organic-rich sapropel layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters.We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition,the water chemistry and determined the mineralogical composition and predominant biota species(Diatoms and Cyanobacteria in phytoplankton community respectively) in the lakes.The result indicates that the first lake has a siliceous type of sapropel and the second a carbonaceous one.A computer thermodynamic model was developed for chemical interaction in water-bottom sediment systems of the Kambala and Barchin Lakes.The surface sodium bicarbonate waters are supersaturated with respect to calcite,magnesite(or low Mg-calcite),quartz and chlorite with minor strontianite,apatite and goethite(pH8.9-9.3,Eh 0.3 V).Nevertheless,it is shown that during sapropel deposition,deep silt waters should be anoxic(Eh0 V).The virtual component CH_2O has been used to create an anoxic environment suitable for pyrite formation due to the biotic community impact and abiotic reduction.Thermodynamic calculation has shown that silt water is not necessarily euxinic(anoxic and sulfidic).Depending on Eh,sulfate sulfur can dominate in solution,causing the formation of gypsum together with pyrite.An attempt was made to find a reason for solution supersaturation with respect to Ca and Mg ions due to their complexation with humic acids.  相似文献   

Late pleistocene/early holocene environments and climates,fauna, and human occupation in the argentine altiplano     

Jorge Fernndez  Vera Markgraf  Hctor O. Panarello  Miguel Albero  Fernando E. Angiolini  Susana Valencio  Mirta Arriaga 《Geoarchaeology》1991,6(3):251-272

The Barro Negro site (23°S lat., 65°37′W long.) in the Altiplano (Puna) of northwestern Argentina contains a well stratified sequence of remains of Hippidion, the American extinct horse, camelids, and archaeological materials, which is the focus of this study. In addition to establishing a reliable chronology, paleoenvironmental information was obtained based on analyses of pollen and stable isotopes (oxygen and carbon) from bone and marl. The data indicate that Hippidion was present at the site between 12,000 and 10,000 yr B. P., at a time when Altoandean grasslands had expanded to lower elevations. By 10,000 yr B.P., when modern semi-arid sub-puna scrub had replaced the Altoandean grasslands, only camelids (Lama or Vicugna) were present, simultaneous with the first evidence of local human occupation. This suggests that a climatic shift from cool and moist (winter rain regime) to warm and dry (summer rain regime) conditions took place simultaneously with the disappearance of the American horse and the appearance of camelids and man.  相似文献