Predictive uncertainty of peak outflow relations for landslides dam breach     

Chao Dang  Nana Chu  Yu Ding 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(11):4265-4271

Risk assessment development considering the failure of landslide dams often requires the estimation of peak outflow through the breach. The empirical equations based on data from case studies tend to be the first direct approach. This paper conducted an uncertainty analysis when these empirical relations were utilized to predict the peak outflow of a breached landslide dam. The results suggest that the relations derived from manmade dams or embankments typically overestimate the peak outflow about 1/5 to 3/4 of an order of magnitude; and the relations derived from the database of landslide dams have much smaller mean prediction errors and also exhibit broad uncertainty bands. Application of the uncertainly analysis was illustrated by the Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake, formed during 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In addition, the predicted results from Eq. 1 deduced herein were considered to be the reliable estimate of peak outflow through the breach of landslide dam.  相似文献   

安徽淮北平原冬小麦气候适宜度分析及作物年景评估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王胜 田红党修伍  张学贤 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(3):253-261

选取安徽省淮北平原37个气象站1960-2016年逐日气象资料,构建气温、降水、日照及气候适宜度模型,分析气候变暖背景下冬小麦气候适宜度时空演变特征,揭示冬小麦生育期气候风险,评判农业气候年景。结果表明：淮北平原冬小麦不同生育期对气候因子适宜程度不同,单要素各生育期适宜度均为灌浆-乳熟期较高,返青-拔节期较低,其中降水适宜度分蘖期最低;全生育期温度适宜度最高、日照适宜度次之、降水适宜度最低,水分是冬小麦生长的限制因子。气候综合适宜度灌浆-乳熟期最高,分蘖期降水适宜度最低,并且其序列变异系数大,常遭遇秋冬连旱,引起产量波动;全生育期气候适宜度呈东高西低分布,淮北中东部较高,而淮北西部及沿淮地区较低,冬小麦生产风险相对较高。1961-2016年全生育期温度适宜度线性增大趋势显著,降水适宜度线性趋势不明显,而日照适宜度呈显著的线性减小趋势;综合来看,全生育期气候适宜度无明显线性增减趋势,空间上淮北东部略有增大,而西部及沿淮地区略有减小,气候风险增加。淮北平原多数年份气候适宜度适中,适宜性偏差年发生概率高于偏好年。基于气候适宜度评判冬小麦气候年景等级,评估结果与实际产量增减情况基本相符,表明农业气候年景模型评估精度能满足业务服务需求,具有推广应用价值。  相似文献   

航空多光谱图像地形影响校正的模拟反射率方法   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

党福星 《国土资源遥感》1999,10(4):33-39

开展强起伏地形等复杂条件下的多光谱数据处理实用方法研究,是使中高山地区多光谱定量化解释成果水平取得明显提高的重要途径之一。本文根据地形因素对航空多光谱图像地质解释影响的特点、多光谱仪的成像方式,应用简化的太阳辐射能量平衡原理,研究了如何从航空多光谱图像像元的亮度变化中消除地形影响,模拟生成反射率图像的新方法。新方法综合考虑了地表太阳辐照度的变化、地物的光谱反射率、反照率和热辐射信息,与目前常规的处理技术(如比值法和剩余对数法) 相比,消除了地形坡度和坡向变化对图像解释的影响,保留了地物反照率信息,为多光谱定量化解释提供了更合理有效的反射率图像,对超光谱数据的处理和解释均有潜在的应用价值。  相似文献   

地震矩张量反演在地震观测报告中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘瑞丰  陈培善  任克新  党京平  李保昆 《地震地磁观测与研究》1999,20(4):1-6

针对我国地震工作的实际需要,从１９９５年起,《中国地震台网目录和地震矩张量解》刊登了国内较大地震和全球大震的地震矩张量解和震源机制解。同时在《中国地震年报》上也刊登国内及邻区较大地震的地震长张量解和震源机制解。为了方便用户使用,本文对有关参数进行了说明。  相似文献   

Molecular characterizations of chloramphenicol- and oxytetracycline-resistant bacteria and resistance genes in mariculture waters of China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hongyue Dang  Jingyi Zhao  Mingna Chen 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(7):987-994

In order to gain an understanding of the diversity and distribution of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and their resistance genes in maricultural environments, multidrug-resistant bacteria were screened for the rearing waters from a mariculture farm of China. Both abalone Haliotis discushannai and turbot Scophthalmus maximus rearing waters were populated with abundant chloramphenicol-resistant bacteria. These bacteria were also multidrug resistant, with Vibriosplendidus and Vibriotasmaniensis being the most predominant species. The chloramphenicol-resistance gene cat II, cat IV or floR could be detected in most of the multidrug-resistant isolates, and the oxytetracycline-resistance gene tet(B), tet(D), tet(E) or tet(M) could also be detected for most of the isolates. Coexistence of chloramphenicol- and oxytetracycline-resistance genes partially explains the molecular mechanism of multidrug resistance in the studied maricultural environments. Comparative studies with different antimicrobial agents as the starting isolation reagents may help detect a wider diversity of the antimicrobial-resistant bacteria and their resistance genes.  相似文献   

Future high- and low-flow estimations for Central Vietnam: a hydro-meteorological modelling chain approach     

Quang Thinh Dang  Harald Kunstmann 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(11):1867-1889

We apply a complex hydro-meteorological modelling chain for investigating the impact of climate change on future hydrological extremes in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by limited data availability. The modelling chain consists of six General Circulation Models (GCMs), six Regional Climate Models (RCMs), six bias correction (BC) approaches, the fully distributed Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), and extreme values analysis. Bias corrected and raw climate data are used as input for WaSiM. To derive hydrological extremes, the generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to the annual maxima/minima discharge. We identify limitations according to the fitting procedure and the BC methods, and suggest the usage of the delta change approach for hydrological decision support. Tendencies towards increased high- and decreased low flows are concluded. Our study stresses the challenges in using current GCMs/RCMs in combination with state-of-the-art BC methods and extreme value statistics for local impact studies.  相似文献   

Distribution of glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers in surface soils along an altitudinal transect at cold and humid Mountain Changbai: Implications for the reconstruction of paleoaltimetry and paleoclimate     

Yue Li  Shijin Zhao  Hongye Pei  Shi Qian  Jingjie Zang  Xinyue Dang  Huan Yang 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2018,61(7):925-939

Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers(GDGTs)serve as important tools for the quantitative reconstruction of paleoclimate and paleoecology in both continental and marine environments.Previous studies of GDGTs in the terrestrial environments focused primarily on the soils from the relatively warm-humid or cold-dry regions.However,it is still unclear how GDGTs respond to environmental variables in the cold-humid regions.Here,we collected soils along an altitudinal transect of Mountain(Mt.)Changbai,which has a typical cold-humid climate,to investigate the distribution of GDGTs and the response of GDGT-based proxies to changes in climate along the transect.The shift in the distribution of archaeal isoprenoidal GDGTs(iso GDGTs)revealed that the archaeal community varied significantly along the transect,which can affect the relationship between TEX_(86)and mean annual air temperature(MAT).In addition,the increased temperature seasonality at higher altitudes exerted a significant impact on TEX_(86).We proposed a global calibration of TEX_(86)for the growing season temperature reconstruction in the soil environments:T=85.19×TEX_(86)-46.30(R~2=0.84,p0.001).The methylation indices for 5-methyl branched GDGTs(br GDGTs)including MBT′_(5me)and MBT_(5/6),showed correlation with soil water content but no relationship with MAT,indicating that MBT′_(5me)and MBT_(5/6)from cold-humid environments may be not suitable for temperature and altitude reconstruction.In contrast,the recently developed p H proxies,including MBT′_(6me)(the methylation index for 6-methyl br GDGTs),CBT(Cyclisation index of Branched Tetraethers),IR_(IIa’)(Isomer ratio of IIa′)and IR_(IIIa′)(Isomer ratio of IIIa′)exhibited significant correlations with soil p H,suggesting these proxies can still be used for soil p H reconstruction in the coldhumid regions.The combination of MBT′_(5me)and MBT′_(6me)was strongly related to different types of climate(cold-dry,warmhumid,cold-humid,and warm-dry).For example,MBT′_(5me)0.65 and MBT′_(6me)0.55 are diagnostic for the cold-humid climate.Thus,the combination of MBT′_(5me)and MBT′_(6me)has the potential as a tool for the identification of different types of paleoclimate.  相似文献   

越南红河水下三角洲北区表层沉积物类型及分布特征初探     

宋兵  李珍  李杰  李贞  Xuan Phong Dang  Eiji Matsumoto 《海洋通报》2009,28(6)

对2007年采自越南红河水下三角洲北区24个表层沉积物样品进行了粒度分析和粒度参数计算,初步探讨了该区沉积物的主要类型及分布特征。结果表明,越南红河水下三角洲北区的表层沉积物主要由粉砂组成(体积平均含量为54.35%),平均粒径为6φ。按Link沉积物命名法,该区沉积物主要类型有砂、砂质粉砂和黏土质粉砂。水平分布上,由西部的砂向东逐渐变为黏土质粉砂,呈现出由近岸三角洲前缘相的粗粒级沉积物逐渐向前三角洲-浅海相的细粒级沉积物变化的趋势。与前人研究成果对比发现,红河水下三角洲北区沉积物黏土的比例较1996年的比例明显增大,可能与海岸线近10a来总体上呈向陆迁移、水下三角洲沉积向岸蚀退以及纵向上水动力逐渐变弱有关。  相似文献