Limiting global warming to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C is an integral part of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these aims, cumulative global carbon emissions after 2016 should not exceed 940 – 390?Gt of CO2 (for the 2°C target) and 167 – ?48?Gt of CO2 (for the 1.5°C target) by the end of the century. This paper analyses the EU’s cumulative carbon emissions in different models and scenarios (global models, EU-focused models and national carbon mitigation scenarios). Due to the higher reductions in energy use and carbon intensity of the end-use sectors in the national scenarios, we identify an additional mitigation potential of 26–37 Gt cumulative CO2 emissions up to 2050 compared to what is currently included in global or EU scenarios. These additional reductions could help to both reduce the need for carbon dioxide removals and bring cumulative emissions in global and EU scenarios in line with a fairness-based domestic EU budget for a 2°C target, while still remaining way above the budget for 1.5°C.Key policy insights
Models used for policy advice such as global integrated assessment models or EU models fail to consider certain mitigation potential available at the level of sectors.
Global and EU models assume significant levels of CO2 emission reductions from carbon capture and storage to reach the 1.5°C target but also to reach the 2°C target.
Global and EU model scenarios are not compatible with a fair domestic EU share in the global carbon budget either for 2°C or for 1.5°C.
Integrating additional sectoral mitigation potential from detailed national models can help bring down cumulative emissions in global and EU models to a level comparable to a fairness-based domestic EU share compatible with the 2°C target, but not the 1.5°C aspiration.
AbstractFinding the shortest path through open spaces is a well-known challenge for pedestrian routing engines. A common solution is routing on the open space boundary, which causes in most cases an unnecessarily long route. A possible alternative is to create a subgraph within the open space. This paper assesses this approach and investigates its implications for routing engines. A number of algorithms (Grid, Spider-Grid, Visibility, Delaunay, Voronoi, Skeleton) have been evaluated by four different criteria: (i) Number of additional created graph edges, (ii) additional graph creation time, (iii) route computation time, (iv) routing quality. We show that each algorithm has advantages and disadvantages depending on the use case. We identify the algorithms Visibility with a reduced number of edges in the subgraph and Spider-Grid with a large grid size to be a good compromise in many scenarios. 相似文献
Antecedent rainfall and short-term intense rainfall both contribute to the temporal occurrence of landslides in British Columbia. These two quantities can be extracted from the precipitation regimes simulated by climate models. This makes such models an attractive tool for use in the investigation of the effect of global warming on landslide frequencies.In order to provide some measure of the reliability of models used to address the landslide question, the present-day simulation of the antecedent precipitation and short-term rainfall using the daily data from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis model (CGCM) is compared to observations along the south coast of British Columbia. This evaluation showed that the model was reasonably successful in simulating statistics of the antecedent rainfall but was less successful in simulating the short-term rainfall.The monthly mean precipitation data from an ensemble of 19 of the world's global climate models were available to study potential changes in landslide frequencies with global warming. Most of the models were used to produce simulations with three scenarios with different levels of prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations during the twenty-first century. The changes in the antecedent precipitation were computed from the resulting monthly and seasonal means. In order to deal with models' suspected difficulties in simulating the short-term precipitation and lack of daily data, a statistical procedure was used to relate the short-term precipitation to the monthly means.The qualitative model results agree reasonably well, and when averaged over all models and the three scenarios, the change in the antecedent precipitation is predicted to be about 10% and the change in the short-term precipitation about 6%. Because the antecedent precipitation and the short-term precipitation contribute to the occurrence of landslides, the results of this study support the prediction of increased landslide frequency along the British Columbia south coast during the twenty-first century. 相似文献
Troctolite blocks with compositions akin to the Hidden Zone are exposed in a tholeiitic dyke cutting across the Skaergaard
intrusion, East Greenland. Plagioclase in these blocks contains finely crystallised melt inclusions that we have homogenised
to constrain the parental magma to 47.4–49.0 wt.% SiO2, 13.4–14.9 wt.% Al2O3 and 10.7–14.1 wt.% FeOT. These compositions are lower in FeOT and higher in SiO2 than previous estimates and have distinct La/SmN and Dy/YbN ratios that link them to the lowermost volcanic succession (Milne Land Formation) of the regional East Greenland flood basalt
province. New major- and trace element compositions for the FG-1 dyke swarm, previously taken to represent Skaergaard magmas,
overlap with the entire range of the regional flood basalt succession and do not form a coherent suite of Skaergaard like
melts. These dykes are therefore re-interpreted as feeder dykes throughout the main phase of flood basalt volcanism. 相似文献
Geodemographics offers the prospects of integrating, modelling and mapping health care needs and other health indicators that
are useful for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns. Yet reports about this application domain has to date
been sporadic. The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential of a bespoke geodemographic system for neighbourhood
targeting in an inner city public health authority, Southwark Primary Care Trust, London. This system, the London Output Area
Classification (LOAC), is compared to six other geodemographic systems from both governmental and commercial sources. The
paper proposes two new indicators for assessing the performance of geodemographic systems for neighbourhood targeting based
on local hospital demand data. The paper also analyses and discusses the utility of age- and sex standardisation of geodemographic
profiles of health care demand. 相似文献
Owing to the low surface gravity of the Rosetta target comet 46P/Wirtanen, a means of anchoring the Rosetta Lander to the cometary surface will be necessary. This task can be accomplished by firing an anchor into the cometary soil immediately after touchdown to prevent a rebound of the spacecraft from the surface or subsequent ejection by other forces, and to allow for mechanical activities (drilling, etc.) at the landing site.
The rationale for anchoring is examined, based on estimates of the main forces likely to act on the spacecraft after landing. We report on the development of an anchoring device using a pyrotechnic gas generator as a power source and an instrumented anchor.
In addition to the anchoring function, which is the primary purpose of this system, the integration of acceleration and temperature sensors into the tip offers the possibility to determine some important material properties of the cometary surface layer. The accelerometer is designed to measure the deceleration history of the projectile and is thus expected to give information on how the material properties (in particular strength) change within the penetrated layer(s), while the temperature sensor will measure temperature variations at the depth at which the anchor finally comes to rest. As the mechanical properties of the material are not known, it is difficult to predict the final depth of the anchor with any great certainty, but it may well be greater than that reached by any other of the lander's instruments.
The instrumented anchor will be part of the MUPUS experiment, selected to form part of the Rosetta Lander payload. We report on results of laboratory simulations of anchor penetration performed at the Institut für Weltraumforschung, Graz, and compare these with models of projectile penetration. The value of the results expected from the penetrometry experiment in the context of an improved understanding of cometary processes is discussed. 相似文献
