Risk factors contributing to motor vehicle collisions in an environment of uncertainty     

Ellen K. Cromley 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2007,21(5):473-486

The concepts of medical geography provide a framework for investigating the importance of people–place interactions in risk analysis and assessing the roles of individual, behavioral, and environmental risk factors. Analyses of data on motor vehicle collisions in Connecticut in 1995 and 1996 are used to illustrate geographical variations in the characteristics of collisions. A method is presented for identifying high frequency collision sites for particular collision types. Proportions and odds ratios calculated as local statistics are used to highlight sites where the individual, behavioral, or environmental characteristics of collisions differ significantly from those in the state as a whole. These differences have implications for developing better statistical models for knowledge synthesis and policy development.  相似文献   

Field measurements of three-dimensional hydraulics in a step-pool channel   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Andrew C. Wilcox  Ellen E. Wohl 《Geomorphology》2007,83(3-4):215-231

We investigated the effects of morphologic position and discharge on flow structure in a steep (0.10 m/m) mountain channel by collecting three-dimensional measurements of time-averaged and turbulent velocity components with a SonTek FlowTracker Handheld ADV (acoustic Doppler velocimeter) on a 30-m reach of a step-pool channel in the Colorado Rockies. Velocity profiles were measured at morphologic positions characteristic of steep channels (above steps, step lips, base of steps, pools, cascades, runs), and at five different discharges. A marked three-dimensionality of flow structure was documented in East St. Louis Creek. Velocities in the streamwise component were the largest contributors to overall velocity vector magnitudes; cross-stream and vertical components contributed averages of 20% and 15%, respectively, to overall vector magnitudes. Turbulence intensities were especially multi-dimensional, however, with large contributions to turbulent kinetic energy from the vertical component of velocity. Analysis of variance indicated that discharge and morphologic position significantly affected mean streamwise velocities, with substantially higher velocities upstream from steps than in pools. Discharge and morphology effects on cross-stream and vertical velocity components, however, were not significant. Discharge and morphologic position also significantly affected turbulence intensities for all flow components, with the greatest turbulence intensities occurring in pools and at high discharges. These results illustrate the strong discharge-dependence of hydraulics in step-pool channels, where relative submergence of bedforms changes rapidly with discharge, and the substantial spatial variation in hydraulics created by step-pool sequences.  相似文献   

MITIGATION OF SEDIMENTATION HAZARDS DOWNSTREAM FROM RESERVOIRS     

Ellen WOHL  Sara RATHBURN 《国际泥沙研究》2003,18(2)

1 INTRODUCTION Increasing attention is being given to sedimentation hazards downstream from reservoirs as dams built during the past century accumulate progressively greater volumes of sediment. The sediment storage both decreases reservoir capacity and operating efficiency of the dam, and creates a 搒ediment-shadow?downstream where sediment-starved flows commonly erode channel boundaries and create long-term channel instabilities. Numerous studies have documented downstream channel change…  相似文献   

An assessment of land use and other factors affecting sediment loads in the Rio Puerco watershed, New Mexico     

Stephanie J. Phippen  Ellen Wohl   《Geomorphology》2003,52(3-4):269-287

Rapid channel erosion in the Rio Puerco watershed of northwest New Mexico has been attributed to land use, climate changes, and internal channel adjustments. The objectives of this study were to assess (1) the impacts of land uses on sediment load, (2) the quantitative relationships between land use and sediment load, and (3) the effectiveness of different erosion control methods. The impacts of land uses on sediment load were assessed via hypotheses that, holding other erosion-related variables constant, sediment load correlates positively with grazing intensity and with density of unpaved roads, and correlates negatively with the number of erosion control treatments. We calculated the average annual sediment load for 17 subbasins of 0.67–17.97 km² by comparing sediment accumulation at two points in time (mid-1960s and 1999) behind intact sediment retention structures. We assessed land use via grazing records and measurements of unpaved roads generated from aerial photographs. Soil characteristics, vegetation, and physical factors were quantified for each subbasin. Using 18 variables for each subbasin, we employed Mallow's C_p as a selection criterion. We used six statistical models, including multiple regression and principal components analysis, to determine inherent mathematical relationships between significant independent variables and sediment load. The results indicate that sediment load does not correlate with grazing intensity except in small, relatively low-relief basins with fewer bedrock exposures. However, this interpretation may be compromised by the low quality of data available to quantify grazing. Sediment load is highly sensitive to the presence of unpaved roads, which serve as high gradient, channelized conduits of water and sediment during storms. Sediment load does not correlate with erosion control except in the subset of small, relatively low-relief subbasins that also proved sensitive to grazing intensity. Overall, the statistical analyses suggest that the impact of land uses on sediment load can be assessed using the data available although physical factors appear more significant than land use in producing high sediment loads in the Rio Puerco subbasins. Historical erosion control techniques, as implemented in the Rio Puerco watershed, prove largely ineffective against accelerated sediment loads because they have not been appropriately implemented or maintained.  相似文献   

Reach‐scale channel geometry of a mountain river     

Ellen Wohl  Jessica N. Kuzma  Nancy E. Brown 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(8):969-981

Mountain rivers can be subject to strong constraints imposed by changes in gradient and grain size supplied by processes such as glaciation and rockfall. Nonetheless, adjustments in the channel geometry and hydraulics of mountain rivers at the reach scale can produce discernible patterns analogous to those in fully alluvial rivers. Mountain rivers can differ in that imposed reach‐scale gradient is an especially important control on reach‐scale channel characteristics, as indicated by examination of North St Vrain Creek in Colorado. North St Vrain Creek drains 250 km² of the Rocky Mountains. We used 25 study reaches within the basin to examine controls on reach‐scale channel geometry. Variables measured included channel geometry, large woody debris, grain size, and mean velocity. Drainage area at the study reaches ranged from 2·2 to 245 km², and gradient from 0·013 to 0·147 m m^?1. We examined correlations among (1) potential reach‐scale response variables describing channel bankfull dimension and shape, hydraulics, bedform wavelength and amplitude, grain size, ?ow resistance, standard deviation of hydraulic radius, and volume of large woody debris, and (2) potential control variables that change progressively downstream (drainage area, discharge) or that are likely to re?ect a reach‐speci?c control (bed gradient). We tested the hypothesis that response variables correlate most strongly with local bed gradient because of the segmented nature of mountain channels. Results from simple linear regression analyses indicate that most response variables correlate best with gradient, although channel width and width/depth ratio correlate best with discharge. Multiple regression analyses using Mallow's C_p selection criterion and log‐transformation of all variables produced similar results in that most response variables correlate strongly with gradient. These results suggest that the hypothesis is partially supported: channel bed gradient is likely to be a good predictor for many reach‐scale response variables along mountain rivers, but discharge is also an important predictor for some response variables. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The geology and petrology of Bouvetøya,south Atlantic Ocean     

Pall Imsland  Jørgen G. Larsen  Tore Prestvik  Ellen M. Sigmond 《Lithos》1977,10(3):213-234

The Quaternary island Bouvetøya is situated near the triple junction on the South Atlantic Ridge. It is the top of a volcano of about 2000 km⁸, evolved beyond the stage of caldera collapse. Basic, intermediate and peralkaline silicic rocks of a transitional rock series are recorded. Major and trace element chemistry, model calculations and petrographic observations do not favour a closed system fractional crystallization from one parent. The rocks may have evolved from slightly different parents by fractional crystallization under varying P,T and P_H2O conditions, or from one parent modified by crustal contamination and/or volatile transfer.  相似文献   

Estimating fluvial wood discharge using time‐lapse photography with varying sampling intervals          下载免费PDF全文

Natalie Kramer  Ellen Wohl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(6):844-852

Monitoring large wood (LW: width > 10 cm, length > 1 m) in transport within rivers is a necessary next step in the development and refinement of wood budgets and is essential to a better understanding of basin‐wide controls and patterns of LW flux and loads. Monitoring LW transport with coarse interval (≥ 1 min) time‐lapse photography enables the deployment of monitoring cameras at large spatial and long temporal scales. Although less precise than continuous sampling with video, it allows investigators to answer broad questions about basin connectivity, compare drainages and years,and identify transport relationships and thresholds. This paper describes methods to: (i) construct fluvial wood flux curves; (ii) analyze the effects of sample interval lengths on transport estimates; and (iii) estimate total wood loads within a specified time period using coarse‐interval time‐lapse photography. Applying these methods to the Slave River, a large‐volume (10³ m³ s^‐1), low‐gradient (10^{? 2} m km^{? 1}) river in the subarctic (60^° N), yielded the following results. A threshold relationship for wood mobility was located around 4500 m³ s^‐1. More wood is transported on the rising limb of the hydrograph because wood flux declines rapidly on the falling limb. Five‐ and ten‐minute sampling intervals provided unbiased equal variance estimates of 1 min sampling, whereas 15 min intervals were biased towards underestimation by 5–6%, possibly due to periodicity in wood flux. Total LW loads estimated from the 1 min dataset and adjusted for a 15% misdetection rate from 13 July to 13 August are: 1600 ± 200 # pieces, 600 ± 200 m³ and of the order of 1.3 × 10⁵ kg carbon. The total wood load for the entire summer season is probably at least double this estimate because only the second half of the summer was monitored and a large early summer peak freshet was missed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of forest stand age on the characteristics of logjams in mountainous forest streams          下载免费PDF全文

Natalie D. Beckman  Ellen Wohl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(11):1421-1431

We measured longitudinal spacing and wood volume of channel‐spanning logjams along 30 1‐km reaches of forest streams in the Colorado Front Range, USA. Study streams flow through old‐growth (> 200 year stand age) or younger subalpine conifer forest. Evaluating correlations between the volume and longitudinal spacing of logjams in relation to channel and forest characteristics, we find that old‐growth forest streams have greater in‐stream wood loads and more jams per kilometer than streams in younger forest. Old‐growth forests have a larger basal area close to the stream and correlate with larger piece diameters of in‐stream wood. Jam volume correlates inversely with the downstream spacing for ramp and bridge pieces that can act as key pieces in jams. Most importantly, old‐growth streams have shorter downstream spacing for ramp and bridge pieces (< 20 m). Our results suggest that management of in‐stream wood and associated stream characteristics can be focused most effectively at the reach scale, with an emphasis on preserving old‐growth riparian stands along lower gradient stream reaches or mimicking the effects of old growth by manipulating the spacing of ramp and bridge pieces. Our finding that average downstream spacing between jams declines as wood load increases suggests that the most effective way to create and retain jams is to ensure abundant sources of wood recruitment, with a particular emphasis on larger pieces that are less mobile because they have at least one anchor point outside the active channel. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A radar survey of M- and X-class asteroids     

Michael K. Shepard  Beth Ellen Clark  Ellen S. Howell  Jon D. Giorgini  Steven J. Ostro  Brian Warner  Petr Pravec  Thomas Bennett  Raoul Behrend  Josep Coloma  Andrew Rivkin 《Icarus》2008,195(1):184-205

We observed ten M- and X-class main-belt asteroids with the Arecibo Observatory's S-band (12.6 cm) radar. The X-class asteroids were targeted based on their albedos or other properties which suggested they might be M-class. This work brings the total number of main-belt M-class asteroids observed with radar to 14. We find that three of these asteroids have rotation rates significantly different from what was previously reported. Based on their high radar albedo, we find that only four of the fourteen—16 Psyche, 216 Kleopatra, 758 Mancunia, and 785 Zwetana—are almost certainly metallic. 129 Antigone has a moderately high radar albedo and we suggest it may be a CH/CB/Bencubbinite parent body. Three other asteroids, 97 Klotho, 224 Oceana, and 796 Sarita have radar albedos significantly higher than the average main belt asteroid and we cannot rule out a significant metal content for them. Five of our target asteroids, 16 Psyche, 129 Antigone, 135 Hertha, 758 Mancunia, and 785 Zwetana, show variations in their radar albedo with rotation. We can rule out shape and composition in most cases, leaving variations in thickness, porosity, or surface roughness of the regolith to be the most likely causes. With the exception of 129 Antigone, we find no hydrated M-class asteroids (W-class; Rivkin, A.S., Howell, E.S., Lebofsky, L.A., Clark, B.E., Britt, D.T., 2000. Icarus 145, 351-368) to have high radar albedos.  相似文献   

The beaver meadow complex revisited – the role of beavers in post‐glacial floodplain development     

Lina E. Polvi  Ellen Wohl 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2012,37(3):332-346

We evaluate the validity of the beaver‐meadow complex hypothesis, used to explain the deposition of extensive fine sediment in broad, low‐gradient valleys. Previous work establishes that beaver damming forms wet meadows with multi‐thread channels and enhanced sediment storage, but the long‐term geomorphic effects of beaver are unclear. We focus on two low‐gradient broad valleys, Beaver Meadows and Moraine Park, in Rocky Mountain National Park (Colorado, USA). Both valleys experienced a dramatic decrease in beaver population in the past century and provide an ideal setting for determining whether contemporary geomorphic conditions and sedimentation are within the historical range of variability of valley bottom processes. We examine the geomorphic significance of beaver‐pond sediment by determining the rates and types of sedimentation since the middle Holocene and the role of beaver in driving floodplain evolution through increased channel complexity and fine sediment deposition. Sediment analyses from cores and cutbanks indicate that 33–50% of the alluvial sediment in Beaver Meadows is ponded and 28–40% was deposited in‐channel; in Moraine Park 32–41% is ponded sediment and 40–52% was deposited in‐channel. Radiocarbon ages spanning 4300 years indicate long‐term aggradation rates of ~0.05 cm yr^‐1. The observed highly variable short‐term rates indicate temporal heterogeneity in aggradation, which in turn reflects spatial heterogeneity in processes at any point in time. Channel complexity increases directly downstream of beaver dams. The increased complexity forms a positive feedback for beaver‐induced sedimentation; the multi‐thread channel increases potential channel length for further damming, which increases the potential area occupied by beaver ponds and the volume of fine sediment trapped. Channel complexity decreased significantly as surveyed beaver population decreased. Beaver Meadows and Moraine Park represent settings where beaver substantially influence post‐glacial floodplain aggradation. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the historical range of variability of valley bottom processes, and implications for environmental restoration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献