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21.
As with most Italian rivers, the Reno River has a long history of human modification, related also to morphological changes of the lower Po River since Roman times, but in the last decades, significant land use changes in the headwaters, dam construction, torrent control works and extensive bed material mining have caused important channel morphology and sediment budget changes. In this paper, two main types of channel adjustment, riverbed incision and channel narrowing, are analysed. Riverbed degradation is discussed by comparing four different longitudinal profiles surveyed in 1928, 1951, 1970 and 1998 in the 120 km long reach upstream of the outlet. The analysis of channel narrowing is carried out by comparing a number of cross‐sections surveyed in different years across the same downstream reach. Field sediment transport measurements of seven major floods that occurred between 2003 and 2006 are compared with the bedload transport rates predicted by the most renowned equations. The current low bedload yield is discussed in terms of sediment supply limited conditions due to land use changes, erosion‐control works and extensive and out of control bed material mining that have affected the Reno during the last decades. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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In extensively glaciarized permafrost areas such as Northern Victoria Land, rock glaciers are quite common and are considered postglacial cryotic landforms. This paper reveals that two rock glaciers in Northern Victoria Land (at Adélie Cove and Strandline) that are located close to the Italian Antarctic Station (Mario Zucchelli Station) should have the same origin, although they were previously mapped as Holocene periglacial landforms and subsequently considered ice‐cored and ice‐cemented rock glaciers, respectively. In fact, by integrating different geophysical investigations and borehole stratigraphy, we show that both landforms have similar internal structures and cores of buried glacier ice. Therefore, this kind of rock glacier is possibly related to the long‐term creep of buried ice rather than to permafrost creep alone. This interpretation can be extended to the larger part of the features mapped as rock glaciers in Antarctica. In addition, a high‐reflective horizon sub‐parallel to the topographic surface was detected in Ground Probing Radar (GPR) data over a large part of the study area. Combining all the available information, we conclude that it cannot be straightforwardly interpreted as the base of the active layer but rather represents the top of a cryo‐lithological unit characterized by ice lenses within sediments that could be interpreted as the transition zone between the active layer and the long‐term permafrost table. More generally, knowledge of the subsurface ice content and, in particular, the occurrence of massive ice and its depth is crucial to make realistic and affordable forecasts regarding thermokarst development and related feedbacks involving GHG emissions, especially in the case of cryosoils rich in carbon content. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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On September 26, 1997, at 00.33 h(GMT), a Mw 5.7 earthquake occurred in the axial zone of theUmbria-Marche Apennines of central Italy, in the Colfiorito basin area. At09.40 h (GMT), a Mw 6.0 earthquake again struck the area withinthe Colfiorito basin, a major intramontane basin filled with Quaternarycontinental deposits. The two main shocks, and the associated aftershockswere within a roughly NNW-SSE trending zone of largest damage (Imax10), in which ground deformation has been observed. Along this trend,Cello et al. (1997a) had mapped a few capable faults, showingtranstensional to pure extensional kinematics. Field inspection of themapped faults, carried out after the main shocks, revealed that some ofthem were locally reactivated (for lengths of several hundreds metres andsurface slip in the range of 2–8 cm) during the September 26, 1997earthquakes.  相似文献   
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Long and complete climatic data series are a fundamental resource for scientific research on climate change. Data quality is important, and missing value or data gap management is a key process that must be dealt with carefully to produce reliable datasets. Although a large variety of techniques are available for gap-filling, a widespread strategy is to consider a dataset reliable if the rate of missing data is below a given threshold. However this strategy varies from study to study. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of missing daily values on the estimation of monthly average temperature indices. The relationship between the error of the estimate and the presence of random or consecutive missing values, as well as data series autocorrelation is also analyzed. A theoretical, a linear and a nonlinear model to estimate the maximum error at the 95 % confidence interval are tested on data series provided by national and worldwide networks of stations. Consecutive missing values have an important effect on error estimation due to autocorrelation of temperature data series. On our dataset, the mean and standard deviation of the error for five consecutive missing values (0.27?±?0.05 °C) on a normalized daily series (σ?=?1) was higher than for five random missing values (0.14?±?0.006 °C). A nonlinear model taking into account the number of consecutive missing values is able to estimate the error and its performance is less affected by the presence of consecutive missing values than the other proposed models.  相似文献   
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Traditional landscape elements such as pasture patches enclosed in a forest matrix are progressively disappearing throughout the European Alps. We assessed the land mosaic shift of a protected area located in the western Italian Alps. In particular, the dynamics of pasture patches were studied at both landscape and stand level. Land-cover mapping through object-oriented analysis of historical aerial photographs was used to assess land-cover changes between 1954 and 2000. Spatial statistics were used to quantify landscape patterns, and field samplings within pasture patches were used to explore tree regeneration structure and composition. Our results showed a significant increase in the number of pasture patches caused by their fragmentation following forest expansion. The total surface area of pasture patches decreased by 43% and their core area decreased by 94%. The encroachment of trees on less accessible areas of the pasture patches caused a reduction of patch shape at landscape scale. The gap filling process started 40-50 years ago and began with an early invasion of light demanding species like sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) and common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), followed by European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and secondarily silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Traditional land-use and population decline in the Pesio Valley led to a reduction in ecotone areas. A transition to a more homogeneous landscape is expected in the next decades. Given the cultural and productive nature of these mountain meadow-pasture communities, extensive livestock grazing systems could be used to manage their future conservation.  相似文献   
29.
Post-event Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) analysis on a stack of 45 C-band SAR images acquired by the ESA Sentinel-1 satellites from 9 October 2014 to 19 June 2017 allowed the identification of a clear precursory deformation signal for the Maoxian landslide (Mao County, Sichuan Province, China). The landslide occurred in the early morning of 24 June 2017 and killed more than 100 people in the village of Xinmo. Sentinel-1 images have been processed through an advanced multi-interferogram analysis capable of maximising the density of measurement points, generating ground deformation maps and displacement time series for an area of 460 km2 straddling the Minjiang River and the Songping Gully. InSAR data clearly show the precursors of the slope failure in the source area of the Maoxian landslide, with a maximum displacement rate detected of 27 mm/year along the line of sight of the satellite. Deformation time series of measurement points identified within the main scarp of the landslide exhibit an acceleration starting from April 2017. A detailed time series analysis leads to the classification of different deformation behaviours. The Fukuzono method for forecasting the time of failure appear to be applicable to the displacement data exhibiting progressive acceleration. Results suggest that satellite radar data, systematically acquired over large areas with short revisiting time, could be used not only as a tool for mapping unstable areas, but also for landslide monitoring, at least for some typologies of sliding phenomena.  相似文献   
30.
Landslide displacement prediction is an essential component for developing landslide early warning systems. In the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA), landslides experience step-like deformations (i.e., periods of stability interrupted by abrupt accelerations) generally from April to September due to the influence of precipitation and reservoir scheduled level variations. With respect to many traditional machine learning techniques, two issues exist relative to displacement prediction, namely the random fluctuation of prediction results and inaccurate prediction when step-like deformations take place. In this study, a novel and original prediction method was proposed by combining the wavelet transform (WT) and particle swarm optimization-kernel extreme learning machine (PSO-KELM) methods, and by considering the landslide causal factors. A typical landslide with a step-like behavior, the Baishuihe landslide in TGRA, was taken as a case study. The cumulated total displacement was decomposed into trend displacement, periodic displacement (controlled by internal geological conditions and external triggering factors respectively), and noise. The displacement items were predicted separately by multi-factor PSO-KELM considering various causal factors, and the total displacement was obtained by summing them up. An accurate prediction was achieved by the proposed method, including the step-like deformation period. The performance of the proposed method was compared with that of the multi-factor extreme learning machine (ELM), support vector regression (SVR), backward propagation neural network (BPNN), and single-factor PSO-KELM. Results show that the PSO-KELM outperforms the other models, and the prediction accuracy can be improved by considering causal factors.  相似文献   
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