Reply to discussion on “Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses” by F. Bozzano,P. Mazzanti,and S. Moretto     

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2018,15(7):1443-1444

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature.  相似文献   

Exosphere generation of the Moon investigated through a high-energy neutral detector     

Anna Milillo  Valeria Mangano  Alessandro Mura  Stefano Orsini  Elisabetta De Angelis  Andrea M. Di Lellis  Stefano Massetti  Christina Plainaki  Rosanna Rispoli  Stefano Selci  Nello Vertolli 《Experimental Astronomy》2011,32(1):37-49

Observation of the lunar exosphere is a tool for remote sensing of the surface properties. The sources of this exosphere are related to the interactions of the lunar surface with the solar radiation, with the solar wind or Earth??s magnetospheric plasma, and with the interplanetary dust and meteorites. In fact, the exospheric particles are continuously created and subsequently lost in the interplanetary space, photo-ionized or re-adsorbed by the surface. Eventually, the estimation of the surface composition is not possible without the knowledge of the active release mechanisms. The relative weight of the different release processes of the various atoms, ions and molecules from the surface is still an open debate. Investigation of the Moon??s release processes and interaction with the near-Earth environment is of crucial importance for both determining the relative process release contribution and understanding the surface evolution of other airless bodies, like Mercury and the giant planets?? moons. In this work, an attempt to analyze the processes that take place on the surface of these small airless bodies, as a result of their exposure to the space environment, has been realized by means of the MonteCarlo Environment Simulation Tool (EST), applied to the Moon. The model results show that the different release processes can be identified by analysing the exospheric energy distribution. Finally, the instrument concept of the ??Analizzatore Lunare di ENA?? (ALENA), part of the MAGIA payload and specifically designed for detecting the high-energy particles released from the lunar surface is presented.  相似文献   

Integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought impact monitoring: some hints from an Italian case study     

Raffaele Giordano  Elisabetta Preziosi  Emanuele Romano 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):523-544

According to the Hyogo Framework for Action, increasing resilience to drought requires the development of a people-centered monitoring and early warning system, or in other words, a system capable of providing useful and understandable information to the community at risk. To achieve this objective, it is crucial to negotiate a credible and legitimate knowledge system, which should include both expert and local knowledge. Although several benefits can be obtained, the integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought monitoring is still far from being the standard in drought monitoring and early warning. This is due to many reasons, that is, the reciprocal skepticism of local communities and decision makers, and the limits in the capacity to understand and assess the complex web of drought impacts. This work describes a methodology based on the sequential implementation of Cognitive Mapping and Bayesian Belief Networks to collect, structure and analyze stakeholders’ perceptions of drought impacts. The methodology was applied to analyze drought impacts at Lake Trasimeno (central Italy). A set of drought indicators was developed based on stakeholders’ perceptions. A validation phase was carried out comparing the perceived indicators of drought and the physical indicators (i.e., Standard Precipitation Index and the level of the lake). Some preliminary conclusions were drawn concerning the reliability of local knowledge to support drought monitoring and early warning.  相似文献   

Data reconstruction and homogenization for reducing uncertainties in high-resolution climate analysis in Alpine regions     

Emanuele Eccel  Piero Cau  Roberto Ranzi 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(3):345-358

Analysis of climatic series needs pre-processing to attain spatial- and time-consistent homogeneity. The latter, in high-resolution investigations, can rely on the strong correlations among series, which in turn requires a strict fulfilment of the quality standard in terms of completeness. Fifty-nine daily precipitation and temperature series of 50?years from Trentino, northern Italy, were pre-processed for climatic analysis. This study describes: (1) the preliminary gap-filling protocol for daily series, based on geostatistical correlations on both horizontal and vertical domains; (2) an algorithm to reduce inhomogeneity owing to the systematic snowfall underestimation of rain gauges; and (3) the processing protocol to take into account any source of undocumented inhomogeneity in series. This was performed by application of the t test and F-test of R code RHtestV2. This pre-processing shows straightforward results; correction of snowfall measurements re-evaluates attribution of patterns of altitudinal trends in time trends; homogenization increases the strength of the climatic signal and reduces the scattering of time trends, assessed over a few decades, of a factor of 2.  相似文献   

Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jason C. Furtado  Emanuele Di Lorenzo  Bruce T. Anderson  Niklas Schneider 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(12):2833-2846

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) recently (re-)emerged in the literature as a key atmospheric mode in Northern Hemisphere climate variability, especially in the Pacific sector. Defined as a dipole of sea level pressure (SLP) between, roughly, Alaska and Hawaii, the NPO is connected with downstream weather conditions over North America, serves as the atmospheric forcing pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and is a potential mechanism linking extratropical atmospheric variability to El Ni?o events in the tropical Pacific. This paper explores further the forcing dynamics of the NPO and, in particular, that of its individual poles. Using observational data and experiments with a simple atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we illustrate that the southern pole of the NPO (i.e., the one near Hawaii) contains significant power at low frequencies (7–10?years), while the northern pole (i.e., the one near Alaska) has no dominant frequencies. When examining the low-frequency content of the NPO and its poles separately, we discover that low-frequency variations (periods >7?years) of the NPO (particularly its subtropical node) are intimately tied to variability in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Ni?o-Modoki/Central Pacific Warming (CPW) phenomenon. This result suggests that fluctuations in subtropical North Pacific SLP are important to monitor for Pacific low-frequency climate change. Using the simple AGCM, we also illustrate that variability in central tropical Pacific SSTs drives a significant fraction of variability of the southern node of the NPO. Taken together, the results highlight important links between secondary modes (i.e., CPW-NPO-NPGO) in Pacific decadal variability, akin to already established relationships between the primary modes of Pacific climate variability (i.e., canonical El Ni?o, the Aleutian Low, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation).  相似文献   

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

Tommaso Carlà  Emanuele Intrieri  Federico Di Traglia  Teresa Nolesini  Giovanni Gigli  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):517-534

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.  相似文献   

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Luca Lombardi  Massimiliano Nocentini  William Frodella  Teresa Nolesini  Federica Bardi  Emanuele Intrieri  Tommaso Carlà  Lorenzo Solari  Giulia Dotta  Federica Ferrigno  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2017,14(2):685-696

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.  相似文献   

The imprint of the equation of state on the axial w-modes of oscillating neutron stars     

Omar Benhar  Emanuele Berti  Valeria Ferrari 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,310(3):797-803

We discuss the dependence of the pulsation frequencies of the axial quasi-normal modes of a non-rotating neutron star upon the equation of state describing the star interior. The continued fraction method has been used to compute the complex frequencies for a set of equations of state based on different physical assumptions and spanning a wide range of stiffness. The numerical results show that axial gravitational waves carry relevant information on both the structure of neutron star matter and the nature of the hadronic interactions.  相似文献   

Intrinsic and forced interannual variability of the Gulf of Alaska mesoscale circulation     

Vincent Combes  Emanuele Di Lorenzo 《Progress in Oceanography》2007,75(2):266-286

The response of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) circulation to large-scale North Pacific climate variability is explored using three high resolution (15 km) regional ocean model ensembles over the period 1950-2004. On interannual and decadal timescales the mean circulation is strongly modulated by changes in the large scale climate forcing associated with PDO and ENSO. Intensification of the model gyre scale circulation occurs after the 1976-1977 climate shift, as well as during 1965-1970 and 1993-1995. From the model dynamical budgets we find that when the GOA experiences stronger southeasterly winds, typical during the positive phase of the PDO and ENSO, there is net large-scale Ekman convergence in the central and eastern coastal boundary. The geostrophic adjustment to higher sea surface height (SSH) and lower isopycnals lead to stronger cyclonic gyre scale circulation. The opposite situation occurs during stronger northwesterly winds (negative phase of the PDO).Along the eastern side of the GOA basin, interannual changes in the surface winds also modulate the seasonal development of high amplitude anticyclonic eddies (e.g. Haïda and Sitka eddies). Large interannual eddy events during winter-spring, are phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. The initial eddy dynamics are consistent with a quasi-linear Rossby wave response to positive SSH anomalies forced by stronger downwelling favorable winds (e.g. southwesterly during El Niño). However, because of the fast growth rate of baroclinic instability and the geographical focusing associated with the coastal geometry, most of the perturbation energy in the Rossby wave is locally trapped until converted into large scale nonlinear coherent eddies. Coastally trapped waves of tropical origin may also contribute to positive SSH anomalies that lead to higher amplitude eddies. However, their presence does not appear essential. The model ensembles, which do not include the effects of equatorial coastally trapped waves, capture the large Haïda and Sitka eddy events observed during 1982 and 1997 and explain between 40% and 70% of the tidal gauges variance along the GOA coast.In the western side of the GOA basin, interannual eddy variability located south of the Alaskan Stream is not correlated with large scale forcing and appears to be intrinsic. A comparison of the three model ensembles forced by NCEP winds and a multi-century-long integration forced only with the seasonal cycle, shows that the internal variability alone explains most of the eddy variance. The asymmetry between the eddy forced regime in the eastern basin, and the intrinsic regime in the western basin, has important implications for predicting the GOA response to climate change. If future climate change results in stronger wintertime winds and increased downwelling in the eastern basin, then increased mesoscale activity (perhaps more or larger eddies) might occur in this region. Conversely, the changes in the western basin are not predictable based on environmental forcing. Eastern eddies transport important biogeochemical quantities such as iron, oxygen and chlorophyll-a into the gyre interior, therefore having potential upscale effects on the GOA high-nutrient-low-chlorophyll region.  相似文献   

Evaluation of microwave-assisted acid extraction procedures for the determination of metal content and potential bioavailability in sediments     

Cinzia Bettiol  Lorenzo Stievano  Mariangela Bertelle  Francesca Delfino  Emanuele Argese 《Applied Geochemistry》2008

Acid extractions represent a simple and effective tool for the assessment of metal contamination, origin and bioavailability in the aquatic environment. Optimized microwave-assisted procedures utilizing two extractions (8 M HNO₃ and 1 M HCl) were developed. Particular attention was given to the evaluation of efficiency and selectivity of the developed procedures. This involved an examination of the sediment and the extraction residues by Mössbauer spectroscopy and X-ray diffractometry. These instrumental approaches were used to identify the geochemical phases associated with acid decomposition. Microwave digestion with 8 M HNO₃ produced an efficient solubilization of the most important metal-bearing phases and left unaffected only the minerals (quartz, feldspars, muscovite) with a negligible metal content, thus providing a good estimate of the total metal concentrations. The 1 M HCl extraction, despite the limitation due to the incomplete solubilization of pyrite and to the partial dissolution of sheet silicates, represents a simple and effective technique for providing an estimate of the bioavailable metal fraction in sediments. The combined use of the two microwave-assisted acid extractions can provide a rapid and simple approach for the risk assessment of metal-polluted sediments.  相似文献