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251.
252.
Projections for South America of future climate change conditions in mean state and seasonal cycle for temperature during the twenty-first century are discussed. Our analysis includes one simulation of seven Atmospheric-Ocean Global Circulation Models, which participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B, and B1. We developed a statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics to evaluate the models’ skills in simulating late twentieth century temperature over continental areas. Some criteria [model weight indices (MWIs)] are computed allowing comparing over such large regions how each model captures the temperature large scale structures and contributes to the multi-model combination. As the study demonstrates, the use of neural networks, optimized by Bayesian statistics, leads to two major results. First, the MWIs can be interpreted as optimal weights for a linear combination of the climate models. Second, the comparison between the neural network projection of twenty-first century conditions and a linear combination of such conditions allows the identification of the regions, which will most probably change, according to model biases and model ensemble variance. Model simulations in the southern tip of South America and along the Chilean and Peruvian coasts or in the northern coasts of South America (Venezuela, Guiana) are particularly poor. Overall, our results present an upper bound of potential temperature warming for each scenario. Spatially, in SRES A2, our major findings are that Tropical South America could warm up by about 4°C, while southern South America (SSA) would also undergo a near 2–3°C average warming. Interestingly, this annual mean temperature trend is modulated by the seasonal cycle in a contrasted way according to the regions. In SSA, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle tends to increase, while in northern South America, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle would be reduced leading to much milder winters. We show that all the scenarios have similar patterns and only differ in amplitude. SRES A1B differ from SRES A2 mainly for the late twenty-first century, reaching more or less an 80–90% amplitude compared to SRES A2. SRES B1, however, diverges from the other scenarios as soon as 2025. For the late twenty-first century, SRES B1 displays amplitudes, which are about half those of SRES A2.  相似文献   
253.
ABSTRACT The middle Miocene sedimentary fill of the Calatayud Basin in north‐eastern Spain consists of proximal to distal alluvial fan‐floodplain and shallow lacustrine deposits. Four main facies groups characteristic of different sedimentary environments are recognized: (1) proximal and medial alluvial fan facies that comprise clast‐supported gravel and subordinate sandstone and mudstone, the latter exhibiting incipient pedogenic features; (2) distal alluvial fan facies, formed mainly of massive mudstone, carbonate‐rich palaeosols and local carbonate pond deposits; (3) lake margin facies, which show two distinct lithofacies associations depending on their distribution relative to the alluvial fan system, i.e. front (lithofacies A), comprising massive siliciclastic mudstone and tabular carbonates, or lateral (lithofacies B) showing laminated and/or massive siliciclastic mudstone alternating with tabular and/or laminated carbonate beds; and (4) mudflat–shallow lake facies showing a remarkable cyclical alternation of green‐grey and/or red siliciclastic mudstone units and white dolomitic carbonate beds. The cyclic mudflat–shallow lake succession, as exposed in the Orera composite section (OCS), is dominantly composed of small‐scale mudstone–carbonate/dolomite cycles. The mudstone intervals of the sedimentary cycles are interpreted as a result of sedimentation from suspension by distal sheet floods, the deposits evolving either under subaerial exposure or water‐saturated conditions, depending on their location on the lacustrine mudflat and on climate. The dolomite intervals accumulated during lake‐level highstands with Mg‐rich waters becoming increasingly concentrated. Lowstand to highstand lake‐level changes indicated by the mudstone/dolomite units of the small‐scale cycles reflect a climate control (from dry to wet conditions) on the sedimentation in the area. The spatial distribution of the different lithofacies implies that deposition of the small‐scale cycles took place in a low‐gradient, shallow lake basin located in an interfan zone. The development of the basin was constrained by gradual alluvial fan aggradation. Additional support for the palaeoenvironmental interpretation is derived from the isotopic compositions of carbonates from the various lithofacies that show a wide range of δ18O and δ13C values varying from ?7·9 to 3·0‰ PDB and from ?9·2 to ?1·7‰ PDB respectively. More negative δ18O and δ13C values are from carbonate‐rich palaeosols and lake‐margin carbonates, which extended in front of the alluvial fan systems, whereas more positive values correspond to dolomite beds deposited in the shallow lacustrine environment. The results show a clear trend of δ18O enrichment in the carbonates from lake margin to the centre of the shallow lake basin, thereby also demonstrating that the lake evolved under hydrologically closed conditions.  相似文献   
254.
The Direct Boundary Element Method (DBEM) is presented to solve the elastodynamic field equations in 2D, and a complete comprehensive implementation is given. The DBEM is a useful approach to obtain reliable numerical estimates of site effects on seismic ground motion due to irregular geological configurations, both of layering and topography.The method is based on the discretization of the classical Somigliana's elastodynamic representation equation which stems from the reciprocity theorem. This equation is given in terms of the Green's function which is the full-space harmonic steady-state fundamental solution. The formulation permits the treatment of viscoelastic media, therefore site models with intrinsic attenuation can be examined. By means of this approach, the calculation of 2D scattering of seismic waves, due to the incidence of P and SV waves on irregular topographical profiles is performed. Sites such as, canyons, mountains and valleys in irregular multilayered media are computed to test the technique. The obtained transfer functions show excellent agreement with already published results.  相似文献   
255.
In this paper we find that from the exact solution for Bianchi type-V in the Brans-Dicke theory with =0 the Hubble parameters are the same for , so that the Universe will be isotropized.  相似文献   
256.
257.
A procedure is shown for extracting weak resonances from the responses of electromagnetic systems excited by electric discharges. The procedure, based on analysis of the late-time system response, is first checked using an analytical function and later with the data for the electric field generated by the computational simulation of Titan's atmosphere using the Transmission Line Matrix (TLM) method. Finally, the low frequency spectrum of the natural electric field in Titan's atmosphere sent by the mutual impedance sensor (MIP) included in the Huygens probe is analyzed employing this technique. The MIP sensor was initially designed to measure the horizontal component of the electric field during a quiet descent. Fortunately, the swinging that occurred during the descent allowed the MIP to measure the radial component of the electric field mixed with the horizontal one. Application of the late-time analysis technique shown in this paper confirms the signature of lightning reported by preliminary data observations, bringing out the expected eigenfrequencies of the Titan-ionosphere electromagnetic cavity, known as Schumann resonances. These resonances are the resonant frequencies of the lower TMr (transverse magnetic to r) modes, which are quasi-transverse electromagnetic modes because they present vertical or radial components of the electric field two orders of magnitude higher than the associated horizontal, azimuthal and zenithal, components. The sequence of Schumann resonances is unique for each celestial body with an ionosphere, since these resonances are fully determined by the dimensions of the planet or satellite and the corresponding atmospheric conductivity profile. Detecting these frequencies in an atmosphere is clear proof of electrical activity, since it implies the existence of an electromagnetic-energy source, which is essential to create and maintain them.  相似文献   
258.
The structure and ice content of ice caves are poorly understood. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) can provide useful insights but has only rarely been applied to ice caves. This paper interprets GPR images (radargrams) in terms of internal structure, stratification, compaction, thickness and volume of the ice block in the Peña Castil ice cave (Central Massif of Picos de Europa, northern Spain), providing the endokarst geometry of the ice cave in GPR data reflections. Eight radargrams were obtained by applying a shielded ground‐coupled antenna with a nominal frequency of 400 MHz. Although the radargrams do not depict the ice–basal bedrock interface, they suggest that the ice block is at least 54 m deep and similarly thick. Some curved reflection signatures suggest a potential vertical displacement in the block of ice, and thus certain dynamics in the ice body. Other images show numerous interbedded clasts and thin sediment layers imaged as banded reflections. In this particular cave a direct visual inspection of the ice stratigraphy is a difficult task but GPR provides clear reflectivity patterns of some of its internal features, making GPR a suitable instrument for this and future studies to achieve a better and broader understanding of the internal behavior of ice caves.  相似文献   
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260.
The aim of this 6?year study was to assess whether freshwater inputs (rainfall and dam discharges) were acting as physical, physiological or trophic forcing factors on phytoplankton pigment concentrations and the dominant mysids of a temperate estuary (Guadalquivir estuary; SW, Spain). The effects of natural and human-controlled freshwater inputs modified the physico-chemical conditions and consequently biological production (bottom up control). Nutrient (nitrogen hypernutrification), suspended particulate matter and allochthonous photosynthetic pigment imports linked to freshwater inputs from adjacent habitats were observed, as well as light-limited autochthonous primary production. Seasonal and/or spatial patterns were shown by all study variables, including mysids. Freshwater management effects on dominant mysids differed depending on the species?? salinity tolerance (physiological forcing) and preferred prey availability (trophic forcing). Moreover, high inorganic matter content had a negative effect on the density of Mesopodopsis slabberi (physical forcing), which led to an increased detritivory/herbivory ratio (Neomysis integer/M. slabberi ratio). In conclusion, freshwater inputs appeared to effect estuarine lower trophic levels via a combination of different forcing mechanisms. Although several general patterns can be derived, the response of the system to freshwater inputs was not always univocal.  相似文献   
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