CyberShake: A Physics-Based Seismic Hazard Model for Southern California   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Robert Graves  Thomas H. Jordan  Scott Callaghan  Ewa Deelman  Edward Field  Gideon Juve  Carl Kesselman  Philip Maechling  Gaurang Mehta  Kevin Milner  David Okaya  Patrick Small  Karan Vahi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2011,168(3-4):367-381

CyberShake, as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center??s (SCEC) Community Modeling Environment, is developing a methodology that explicitly incorporates deterministic source and wave propagation effects within seismic hazard calculations through the use of physics-based 3D ground motion simulations. To calculate a waveform-based seismic hazard estimate for a site of interest, we begin with Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2.0 (UCERF2.0) and identify all ruptures within 200?km of the site of interest. We convert the UCERF2.0 rupture definition into multiple rupture variations with differing hypocenter locations and slip distributions, resulting in about 415,000 rupture variations per site. Strain Green Tensors are calculated for the site of interest using the SCEC Community Velocity Model, Version 4 (CVM4), and then, using reciprocity, we calculate synthetic seismograms for each rupture variation. Peak intensity measures are then extracted from these synthetics and combined with the original rupture probabilities to produce probabilistic seismic hazard curves for the site. Being explicitly site-based, CyberShake directly samples the ground motion variability at that site over many earthquake cycles (i.e., rupture scenarios) and alleviates the need for the ergodic assumption that is implicitly included in traditional empirically based calculations. Thus far, we have simulated ruptures at over 200 sites in the Los Angeles region for ground shaking periods of 2?s and longer, providing the basis for the first generation CyberShake hazard maps. Our results indicate that the combination of rupture directivity and basin response effects can lead to an increase in the hazard level for some sites, relative to that given by a conventional Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, we find that the physics-based hazard results are much more sensitive to the assumed magnitude-area relations and magnitude uncertainty estimates used in the definition of the ruptures than is found in the traditional GMPE approach. This reinforces the need for continued development of a better understanding of earthquake source characterization and the constitutive relations that govern the earthquake rupture process.  相似文献   

The reliability of the kinematical evidence for dark matter: the effects of non-sphericity, substructure and streaming motions     

Teresa Sanchis  Ewa L. &#;okas  Gary A. Mamon 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,347(4):1198-1207

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Multiphase magmatic activity in the Variscan Kłodzko–Złoty Stok intrusion,Polish Sudetes: evidence from SHRIMP U–Pb zircon ages     

Jokubauskas  Petras  Bagiński  Bogusław  Macdonald  Ray  Krzemińska  Ewa 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2018,107(5):1623-1639

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Kłodzko–Złoty Stok intrusion (KZSI), located in the NE part of the Bohemian Massif of Central Europe, has preserved records of the...  相似文献   

Origin and evolution of the Bezedna lake–mire complex in the Lublin area (East Poland): a case study for permafrost lakes in karstic regions     

Radosław Dobrowolski  Piotr Kulesza  Jacek Łojek  Irena Agnieszka Pidek 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2015,53(2):191-213

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Protomylonite evolution potentially revealed by the 3D depiction and fractal analysis of chemical data from a feldspar     

Ewa Słaby  Andrzej Domonik  Michał Śmigielski  Katarzyna Majzner  Gediminas Motuza  Jens Götze  Klaus Simon  Izabela Moszumańska  Łukasz Kruszewski  Paweł Rydelek 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(4):1-23

Tourmalinization associated with peraluminous granitic intrusions in metapelitic host-rocks has been widely recorded in the Iberian Peninsula, given the importance of tourmaline as a tracer of granite magma evolution and potential indicator of Sn-W mineralizations. In the Penamacor-Monsanto granite pluton (Central Eastern Portugal, Central Iberian Zone), tourmaline occurs: (1) as accessory phase in two-mica granitic rocks, muscovite-granites and aplites, (2) in quartz (±mica)-tourmaline rocks (tourmalinites) in several exocontact locations, and (3) as a rare detrital phase in contact zone hornfels and metapelitic host-rocks. Electron microprobe and stable isotope (δ¹⁸O, δD, δ¹¹B) data provide clear distinctions between tourmaline populations from these different settings: (a) schorl–oxyschorl tourmalines from granitic rocks have variable foititic component (^X□ = 17–57 %) and Mg/(Mg + Fe) ratios (0.19–0.50 in two-mica granitic rocks, and 0.05–0.19 in the more differentiated muscovite-granite and aplites); granitic tourmalines have constant δ¹⁸O values (12.1 ± 0.1 ‰), with wider-ranging δD (?78.2 ± 4.7 ‰) and δ¹¹B (?10.7 to ?9.0 ‰) values; (b) vein/breccia oxyschorl [Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.31–0.44] results from late, B- and Fe-enriched magma-derived fluids and is characterized by δ¹⁸O = 12.4 ‰, δD = ?29.5 ‰, and δ¹¹B = ?9.3 ‰, while replacement tourmalines have more dravitic compositions [Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.26–0.64], close to that of detrital tourmaline in the surrounding metapelitic rocks, and yield relatively constant δ¹⁸O values (13.1–13.3 ‰), though wider-ranging δD (?58.5 to ?36.5 ‰) and δ¹¹B (?10.2 to ?8.8 ‰) values; and (c) detrital tourmaline in contact rocks and regional host metasediments is mainly dravite [Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.35–0.78] and oxydravite [Mg/(Mg + Fe) = 0.51–0.58], respectively. Boron contents of the granitic rocks are low (<650 ppm) compared to the minimum B contents normally required for tourmaline saturation in granitic melts, implying loss of B and other volatiles to the surrounding host-rocks during the late-magmatic stages. This process was responsible for tourmalinization at the exocontact of the Penamacor-Monsanto pluton, either as direct tourmaline precipitation in cavities and fractures crossing the pluton margin (vein/breccia tourmalinites), or as replacement of mafic minerals (chlorite or biotite) in the host-rocks (replacement tourmalinites) along the exocontact of the granite. Thermometry based on ¹⁸O equilibrium fractionation between tourmaline and fluid indicates that a late, B-enriched magmatic aqueous fluid (av. δ¹⁸O ~12.1 ‰, at ~600 °C) precipitated the vein/breccia tourmaline (δ¹⁸O ~12.4 ‰) at ~500–550 °C, and later interacted with the cooler surrounding host-rocks to produce tourmaline at lower temperatures (400–450 °C), and an average δ¹⁸O ~13.2 ‰, closer to the values for the host-rock. Although B-metasomatism associated with some granitic plutons in the Iberian Peninsula seems to be relatively confined in space, extending integrated studies such as this to a larger number of granitic plutons may afford us a better understanding of Variscan magmatism and related mineralizations.  相似文献   

An Iterative Method for Calculation of Wind Profiles at the Mesoscale and Microscale     

Adamiec-Wójcik  Iwona  Brzozowska  Lucyna  Drąg  Łukasz  Wojciech  Stanisław 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2022,184(3):423-440

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - Space–time correlations are fundamental to statistical theories and turbulence modelling. However, experimental studies of space–time correlations are often...  相似文献   

Synoptic conditions of heavy snowfalls in Europe     

Ewa Bednorz 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2013,95(1):67-78

Synoptic conditions of heavy snowfalls at four stations in Europe (Oslo, Bremen, Smolensk and Budapest) were analyzed using daily data of snow cover depth from 50 winter seasons (1960/1961–2009/2010). Composite maps of the sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height means and anomalies were presented for the days with an increase in snow depth by ≥10 cm, for each station separately. In the same way, maps were presented for the 850 hPa temperature and the precipitable water content. Additionally, 48 h back trajectories of air masses for the chosen days with the highest amount of snowfall were constructed, using the NOAA HYSPLIT model. Negative anomalies of sea level pressure and 500 hPa heights, which correspond to low‐pressure systems spreading over Europe, are prerequisites for the occurrence of heavy snowfalls at each analyzed location. In Budapest, heavy snowfalls appear as a result of cyclonic cold fronts from the Mediterranean Sea. Another typical location of snow‐bringing low‐pressure systems is the Baltic Sea region. Negative pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic with a low‐pressure centre over the Norwegian Sea cause snowfalls in Oslo. There are two main sources of air masses bringing abundant snowfalls in Europe: the Atlantic region and Mediterranean. According to back trajectories, the humid air masses are transported over long distances and on the way they are shifted from the low troposphere in the source regions to the upper layers.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Renata J. Romanowicz  Ewa Bogdanowicz  Sisay E. Debele  Joanna Doroszkiewicz  Hege Hisdal  Deborah Lawrence  Hadush K. Meresa  Jaroslaw J. Napiórkowski  Marzena Osuch  Witold G. Strupczewski  Donna Wilson  Wai Kwok Wong 《Acta Geophysica》2016,64(2):477-509

This paper presents the background, objectives, and preliminary outcomes from the first year of activities of the Polish–Norwegian project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes). The project aims to estimate the influence of climate changes on extreme river flows (low and high) and to evaluate the impact on the frequency of occurrence of hydrological extremes. Eight “twinned” catchments in Poland and Norway serve as case studies. We present the procedures of the catchment selection applied in Norway and Poland and a database consisting of near-natural ten Polish and eight Norwegian catchments constructed for the purpose of climate impact assessment. Climate projections for selected catchments are described and compared with observations of temperature and precipitation available for the reference period. Future changes based on those projections are analysed and assessed for two periods, the near future (2021–2050) and the far-future (2071–2100). The results indicate increases in precipitation and temperature in the periods and regions studied both in Poland and Norway.  相似文献   

Microstructure measures and the minimum size of a representative volume element: 2D numerical study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dariusz Łydżba  Adrian Różański 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(5):1060-1086

In the paper, a numerical study of the size of a representative volume element (RVE) for both the heat flow as well as the linear elasticity problems is presented. A particular two-phase random microstructure is studied and the method is applied to the digital image of reconstructed 2D realization of random media. The minimum size of RVE is determined by the investigation of the convergence of apparent properties as the size of RVE is increasing. Then, two estimates of the minimum RVE size are proposed and it is shown that the estimates are in a good agreement with the results determined by the investigation of the convergence of apparent properties. The minimum size of RVE can be successfully predicted based only on the microstructure morphology. The statistical measures used in this work are: the two-point probability and the linealpath functions.  相似文献   

Seismicity of Czorsztyn Lake Region: A Case of Reservoir Triggered Seismic Process?     

Wojciech Białoń  Ewa Zarzycka  Stanisław Lasocki 《Acta Geophysica》2015,63(4):1080-1089

Czorsztyn Lake is an artificial water reservoir backed up by the hydropower plant Niedzica earth dam on Dunajec River in south Poland. Its filling began in 1995 and ended in 1997. The reservoir of 234.5 million m3 capacity is shallow, between 20 to 50 m of water column, on average. Until 2011 the seismic activity in this region was sparse, some 1 event trimonthly. However, in November 2011 more than 60 events occurred. Such bursts of activity, separated by low activity periods, continue to appear. Since August 2013 the area is monitored by a local seismic network. The setup allows to accurately locate the epicenters and to determine source mechanisms for stronger events. The events are clustered and aligned along NE-SW direction and their mechanisms are very similar, indicating N-S strike slip faulting. This and the irregular pattern of activity suggest that this seismicity is triggered by the reservoir impoundment.  相似文献