Stochastic forecasting of mine water inrushes     

Istvan Bogardi  Lucien Duckstein  Antal Schmieder  Ferenc Szidarovszky 《Advances in water resources》1980,3(1):3-8

An event-based stochastic forecasting approach is used to model water inrushes into underground works under karstic water hazard. The stochastic properties of inrushes are related to the statistical properties of fissures in the karstic rock. The probability distributions (DF) of five random variables of interest in design are estimated; namely, inrush yield q, number N of inrushes per unit area, distance L between inrushes, maximum q_max in N events and total yield Q. The phenomenological hypotheses of log normal DF of q and Poisson DF of N are reinforced by observation data. On the basis of these DF, a Monte Carlo simulation of a spatial Poisson process of inrushes is run to estimate the DF of q_max and Q. The derivation of Bayesian DF to account for parameter uncertainty is discussed. The stochastic model is used for design and operation of minewater control facilities in the Transdanubian karstic region of Hungary.  相似文献   

An outline of neotectonic structures and morphotectonics of the western and central Pannonian Basin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lszl Fodor  Gbor Bada  Gbor Csillag  Erzsbet Horvth  Zsfia Ruszkiczay-Rüdiger  Klra Palots  Ferenc Síkhegyi  Gbor Timr  Sierd Cloetingh  Frank Horvth 《Tectonophysics》2005,410(1-4):15-41

Neotectonic deformation in the western and central part of the Pannonian Basin was investigated by means of surface and subsurface structural analyses, and geomorphologic observations. The applied methodology includes the study of outcrops, industrial seismic profiles, digital elevation models, topographic maps, and borehole data. Observations suggest that most of the neotectonic structures in the Pannonian Basin are related to the inverse reactivation of earlier faults formed mainly during the Miocene syn- and post-rift phases. Typical structures are folds, blind reverse faults, and transpressional strike-slip faults, although normal or oblique-normal faults are also present. These structures significantly controlled the evolution of landforms and the drainage pattern by inducing surface upwarping and river deflections. Our analyses do not support the postulated tectonic origin of some landforms, particularly that of the radial valley system in the western Pannonian Basin. The most important neotectonic strike-slip faults are trending to east-northeast and have dextral to sinistral kinematics in the south-western and central-eastern part of the studied area, respectively. The suggested along-strike change of kinematics within the same shear zones is in agreement with the fan-shaped recent stress trajectories and with the present-day motion of crustal blocks derived from GPS data.  相似文献   

Petrology and geochemistry of granulite xenoliths beneath the Nógrád-Gömör Volcanic Field, Carpathian-Pannonian Region (N-Hungary/S-Slovakia)     

I. Kovács  C. Szabó 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2005,85(3-4):269-290

Summary Abundant upper mantle and rare lower crustal xenoliths have been found in the Plio-Pleistocene alkali basalts of the Nógrád-G?m?r Volcanic Field, situated in the northern Pannonian Basin, on the border between northern Hungary and southern Slovakia. A few lower crustal granulite xenoliths have been found in a small basaltic pyroclastic cone at Baglyaskő. The mafic granulite xenoliths are plagioclase-bearing hornblende clinopyroxenites, plagioclase-bearing clinopyroxene hornblendites and plagioclase-bearing clinopyroxenites. They contain unusual symplectites, composed of spinel feldspar and clinopyroxene. These symplectites are interpreted as the product of garnet breakdown. Following the breakdown reaction, the symplectite underwent in situ partial melting. Mineral constituents of these granulite xenoliths have chemical compositions similar to those of other granulite xenoliths worldwide. However, a distinctive positive Pb and Ce anomaly in mineral constituents of these granulites is characteristic. Granulite xenoliths from the Nógrád-G?m?r Volcanic Field must have experienced granulite facies metamorphism at pressures that correspond to the ‘original’ thickness of the crust (>1.1 GPa; >∼30 km), whereas the breakdown reaction of garnet and subsequent melting and recrystallization of clinopyroxenes in the symplectites happened at shallower depths close to the present-day MOHO (0.6–0.7 GPa; ∼16–19 km). Present address: Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Australia  相似文献   

Subcompositional Patterns in Cenozoic Volcanic Rocks of Hungary     

J. A. Martín-Fernández  C. Barceló-Vidal  V. Pawlowsky-Glahn  L. ó. Kovács  G. P. Kovács 《Mathematical Geology》2005,37(7):729-752

Data selected from an extensive major element database of Cenozoic volcanic rocks (including calc-alkaline andesites, dacites, rhyolites, and alkali basalts) of Hungary are used to illustrate the detection and modeling of subcompositional patterns using a statistical analysis based on the assumption that relative differences between the observed values are more meaningful than absolute ones. In particular, two roughly linear compositional patterns (associated one to the alkaline basalts, the other to the calc-alkaline series) are revealed and evaluated, and it is shown how principal component analysis can be used to obtain the estimated subcomposition of their incidental intersection point.  相似文献   

Grain-size analysis of the Neogene red clay formation in the Pannonian Basin     

János Kovács 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2008,97(1):171-178

The red clay is a significant deposit underlying the Pleistocene loess-paleosols sequence in the Pannonian Basin. The sedimentary processes involved and the origin of the materials remain controversial. In order to determine the depositional processes of the Pliocene red clay formation we studied many red clay sections in Hungary. Here, we present results of grain-size analyses of the red clay from representative sites. In particular their grain-size distribution is compared with that of typical Pleistocene eolian loess-paleosols, as well as lacustrine and fluvial sediments. It appears from the sedimentological data that the majority of the red clay is of a wind-blown origin. The red clay might be transported by weak westerly winds and has been modified by post-depositional alteration.  相似文献   

Application of satellite imagery in tectonic interpretation     

Ferenc Csillag  gnes Stogicza 《Journal of Geodynamics》1987,8(2-4)

The advabtages of remote sensing are widely used in geologic research. In Hungary, however, in the deep sedimentary basin and densely covered mountain areas, the methods which have been developed and which have led to significant result in arid and semiarid regions cannot be used effectively.In this case, our interest should be focused on detecting structural features instead of on lithologic discrimination. Consequently, this approach can be applied for only morphologically performed areas. A better understanding of the tectonics can be achieved by the evaluation of its morphological expressions.A block-shift method is described for the structural evaluation of linear features, and it is applied for one of the most controversial and least known tectonic units: the Mecsek Mts. (S-Hungary). This method is based on the calculation of several conditional frequencies of length, azimuth and shape for overlapping blocks.Our experience leads to the conclusion that the widely accepted East-West segmentation of the Mecsek Mts. should be changed. We have found an Eastern-Central-Western Mecsek structure which correlates well with some up-to-date geologic mapping results. The lithologic differences are enhanced by morphological and structural features.Besides its scientific achievements, the economic importance of this research is supported by the perspective of the utilization of non-renewable natural resources in the Mecsek Mts.  相似文献   

Multiobjective observation network design for regionalized variables     

Ferenc Szidarovszky 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》1983,1(4):331-342

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Climate of Hungary in the twentieth century according to Feddema     

Ferenc Ács  Hajnalka Breuer  Nóra Skarbit 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,119(1-2):161-169

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Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models     

Gabriella Szépszó  Imke Lingemann  Bastian Klein  Mária Kovács 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):241-262

The main objective of the Effects of Climate Change On the Inland waterway Networks (ECCONET) EU FP7 project was to assess the effect of climate change on the inland waterway transport network with special emphasis on the Rhine and Upper Danube catchments. The assessment was based on consolidation and analysis of earlier and existing research work as well as application of existing climate change and hydrological modelling tools. A key premise at the planning stage of the project had been that all impact studies conducted within ECCONET should be comparable with each other. This can be guaranteed by the common meteorological and hydrological basis. The climate model simulations, which are the most physics- and process-oriented tools for projecting the future climate evolution, include several uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties exist in the hydrological model simulations. In ECCONET, an effort was made to quantify the uncertainty range by using “representative projections” that represent both the lower and upper signals of hydrological low-flow parameters for 2021–2050 over the Rhine catchment. Their evaluation indicated that the finally chosen two regional climate model simulations could be applied also for the Upper Danube catchments as representative projections. The raw climate model outputs have been corrected to the observation data set through application of the linear scaling and the delta-change method. The first impact studies carried out after validation of the hydrological models resulted in discharge scenarios used as input to the economic models in ECCONET.  相似文献   

Potential pollution risk in natural environment of golf courses: an example from Rusovce (Slovakia)     

David Krčmář  Marian Marschalko  Işık Yilmaz  Anna Patschová  Katarína Chalupková  Tibor Kovács 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(10):4075-4084

The objective of the article presented herein is to highlight the specific issue of the protection of water sources in the vicinity of golf courses. Currently we have experienced the construction of a large number of golf courses, which are often found in areas where the protection of natural groundwater resources is needed. In this article, limit conditions are specified, which could be used in construction of other golf courses in the world, where there is a potential threat of contamination of groundwater resources. The issue is demonstrated on a case study in the area of a water resource, Rusovce. A major concern of golf courses is the fact that in an apparently clean environment of these anthropogenic structures contamination occurs, resulting from the maintenance, and the current legislation does not address this specific group of areas. These are particularly dangerous substances derived from fertilizer and turf protection, in particular the use of pesticides (insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, acaricides, e.g. nematocides, and related products, such as growth regulators used for plant protection). The results of the modelling at the water source, Rusovce, show that the combination of negative factors (for example, the groundwater table level close to the surface along with extremely high precipitation totals or the areas flooding and the lack of a golf course bedrock sealing) the limit value of 0.100 μg/l of pesticides concentration in groundwater was exceeded up to 0.880 μg/l. Similarly, such excess may occur in the case of an emergency situation (for example, the spilling of the barrel with the pesticide), where the concentration of pesticides in groundwater may be increased up to 0.874 μg/l in standard conditions (without flooding with an average depth of groundwater table level beneath the terrain). But even under a standard level of security for the establishment and operation of a golf course and standard procedures for the maintenance of the lawn, the concentration of pesticides in the wells reached 0.0001 μg/l.  相似文献