Round-off error in long-term orbital integrations using multistep methods     

Gerald D. Quinlan 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1994,58(4):339-351

Techniques for reducing roundoff error are compared by testing them on high-order Störmer and summetric multistep methods. The best technique for most applications is to write the equation in summed, function-evaluation form and to store the coefficients as rational numbers. A larger error reduction can be achieved by writing the equation in backward-difference form and performing some of the additions in extended precision, but this entails a larger cpu cost.  相似文献   

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. Goddard  A. Kumar  A. Solomon  D. Smith  G. Boer  P. Gonzalez  V. Kharin  W. Merryfield  C. Deser  S. J. Mason  B. P. Kirtman  R. Msadek  R. Sutton  E. Hawkins  T. Fricker  G. Hegerl  C. A. T. Ferro  D. B. Stephenson  G. A. Meehl  T. Stockdale  R. Burgman  A. M. Greene  Y. Kushnir  M. Newman  J. Carton  I. Fukumori  T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.  相似文献   

Multiwavelength focusing with the Sun as gravitational lens     

Laurent Koechlin  Denis Serre  Gerald K. Skinner  Peter Von Ballmoos  Thomas Crouzil 《Experimental Astronomy》2005,20(1-3):307-315

The light deviation caused by the gravitational potential in the vicinity of the sun could be used as a means of focussing radiation that cannot be focussed easily otherwise. The gravitational lens formed by the sun is not stigmatic, but does have the advantage of being achromatic and acts identically on all types of mass-less radiations. For a source at infinity, its geometrical characteristics present a “caustic” line starting at 550 astronomical units (UA) downstream from the sun. In a plane perpendicular to that caustic line, images of distant objects are formed.The perturbations by the solar corona plasma will significantly blur electromagnetic radiation for wavelengths longer than those of the IR domain. At shorter wavelengths, for example the γ domain, the focussing process could lead to 10⁸ amplification factors. In order to reach the regions where images are formed, long distance space missions are necessary. Once launched, missions of this type would be dedicated to a single field. Some possible targets are considered, such as Sagitarius A observed in X and γ rays.In this paper we study the point spread function (PSF) of the sun as a gravitational lens. Taking into account perturbations by the planets, the non sphericity of the sun and coronal plasma index, we derive limits within which such observations could be possible.  相似文献   

Citation on the Award of the Leonard Medal of The Meteoritical Society     

Gerald J. Wasserburg  Ursula B. Marvin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1976,11(3):239-241

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Role of Phase Transitions in a Dynamic Mantle     

Gerald Schubert  David A. Yuen  Donald L. Turcotte 《Geophysical Journal International》1975,42(2):705-735

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Book reviews     

George Kish  Wolf Tietze  C. Paddick  Dietrich Barsch  Keith Clayton  Michael F. Thomas  Thomas Peucker  Alexander Zaporozec  Georg Matthess  German Müller  K. Ernstson  Olusegun Areola  Gerald M. Friedman  Maurice K. -Seguin  C. Koeman  Risto Aario 《GeoJournal》1979,3(4):410-416

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Galaxy magnitudes     

Gerald E. Kron  C. D. Shane 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1974,27(1):233-240

In this, the first of a short series of papers on the magnitudes of galaxies, the dependence of magnitude on the aperture used in photoelectric measures is discussed. mean results from an empirical study are presented.  相似文献   

System dynamics modeling of transboundary systems: the bear river basin model   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Sehlke G  Jacobson J 《Ground water》2005,43(5):722-730

System dynamics is a computer-aided approach to evaluating the interrelationships of different components and activities within complex systems. Recently, system dynamics models have been developed in areas such as policy design, biological and medical modeling, energy and the environmental analysis, and in various other areas in the natural and social sciences. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, a multipurpose national laboratory managed by the Department of Energy, has developed a system dynamics model in order to evaluate its utility for modeling large complex hydrological systems. We modeled the Bear River basin, a transboundary basin that includes portions of Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming. We found that system dynamics modeling is very useful for integrating surface water and ground water data and for simulating the interactions between these sources within a given basin. In addition, we also found that system dynamics modeling is useful for integrating complex hydrologic data with other information (e.g., policy, regulatory, and management criteria) to produce a decision support system. Such decision support systems can allow managers and stakeholders to better visualize the key hydrologic elements and management constraints in the basin, which enables them to better understand the system via the simulation of multiple "what-if" scenarios. Although system dynamics models can be developed to conduct traditional hydraulic/hydrologic surface water or ground water modeling, we believe that their strength lies in their ability to quickly evaluate trends and cause-effect relationships in large-scale hydrological systems, for integrating disparate data, for incorporating output from traditional hydraulic/hydrologic models, and for integration of interdisciplinary data, information, and criteria to support better management decisions.  相似文献   

Implosions and emplosions in supermassive objects     

Giora Shaviv  Gerald E. Tauber 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1971,14(2):396-398

It is shown that for small velocities the time dependent evolution of massive stars may be described by a series of static models. Those are linked to each other by one continuous time dependent parameter-the relativity effect. The fate of the dynamic system is analyzed by the behaviour of the static models. The method is illustrated for general relativistic polytropes.  相似文献   

Footprints in Homogeneously and Heterogeneously Driven Boundary Layers Derived from a Lagrangian Stochastic Particle Model Embedded into Large-Eddy Simulation   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gerald Steinfeld  Siegfried Raasch  Tiina Markkanen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2008,129(2):225-248

A Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model, which is embedded into a parallelised large-eddy simulation (LES) model, is used for dispersion and footprint evaluations. For the first time an online coupling between LES and LS models is applied. The new model reproduces concentration patterns, which were obtained in prior studies, provided that subgrid-scale turbulence is included in the LS model. Comparisons with prior studies show that the model evaluates footprints successfully. Streamwise dispersion leads to footprint maxima that are situated less far upstream than previously reported. Negative flux footprints are detected in the convective boundary layer (CBL). The wide range of applicability of the model is shown by applying it under neutral and stable stratification. It is pointed out that the turning of the wind direction with height leads to a considerable dependency of source areas on height. First results of an application to a heterogeneously heated CBL are presented, which emphasize that footprints are severely affected by the inhomogeneity.  相似文献