Verifying warnings for point precipitation     

Willi Schmid  Marc Wüest   《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):347

Short-term risk forecasts of point precipitation are obtained with COTREC/RainCast, a technique for extrapolation of radar images. The risk forecasts are updated every 5 min for the next 0–2 h. Risk levels are defined for moderate, heavy and extreme precipitation. Warning messages are generated if, at the locations of 23 rain gauges, these risk levels are reached or exceeded. The time-resolved gauge data are used to judge if the warning messages are in time, early or late.Data over a period of 4 months (summer 2002) are used for verification. The largest number of warnings (1790) was obtained for moderate precipitation. About 55% of these warnings were in time, 23% were early and 22% were late. This finding is in a good agreement with the defined risk level for warnings (50%), indicating that the model for calculating the risk factors is reliable. Less warnings in time, and more late warnings were found for heavy and extreme precipitation. Hence, the risk levels need to be lowered for heavy and extreme precipitation, in order to reduce the number of late warnings.  相似文献   

The contact zone between the ALCAPA and Tisza-Dacia mega-tectonic units of Northern Romania in the light of new paleomagnetic data     

Emõ Márton  Matthias Tischler  László Csontos  Bernhard Fügenschuh  Stefan M. Schmid 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2007,100(1):109-124

  相似文献   

Petrology and geochemistry of eclogite xenoliths from the Rietfontein kimberlite,Northern Cape,South Africa     

C. M. Appleyard  D. R. Bell  A. P. le Roex 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2007,154(3):309-333

Petrographic and geochemical features of a suite of eclogite xenoliths from the Rietfontein kimberlite that erupted through probable Proterozoic crust west of the Kaapvaal Craton in the far Northern Cape region of South Africa, are described. Group II eclogites dominate the suite both texturally and chemically, but can be subdivided into bimineralic, opx-bearing and kyanite-bearing groups. Temperature estimates from different geothermometers range from 700 to 1,000°C, indicating derivation from relatively shallow mantle depths. Orthopyroxene-bearing eclogites are inferred to originate from depths of 85 to 115 km and lie close to the average cratonic thermal profile for southern Africa. These uppermost mantle temperatures during the late Cretaceous provide evidence for equilibration of the off-craton lithosphere to craton-like thermal conditions following Namaqua-Natal orogenesis. The kyanite eclogites are distinct from the remaining eclogites in terms of both major and trace element compositions and their lesser degree of alteration. Garnets are richer in Ca, and are Cr-depleted relative to garnets from the bimineralic and opx-bearing eclogites, which tend to be more magnesian. Clinopyroxenes from the kyanite eclogites are more sodic, with higher Al₂O₃ and lower MgO contents than the bimineralic and opx-bearing eclogites. LREE-depletion, positive Sr and Eu anomalies, and the Al-rich, Si-poor bulk composition suggest a plagioclase-rich, probably troctolitic protolith for the kyanite eclogites. In contrast, the major and trace element bulk compositions of the high-MgO bimineralic and orthopyroxene-bearing eclogites are consistent with gabbroic or pyroxenitic precursors, or high-pressure cumulates, rather than mafic to ultramafic lavas. δ¹⁸O values for garnets do not deviate significantly from typical mantle values. The observations reported do not discriminate unambiguously between continental and oceanic origins for the various eclogite components in the mantle lithosphere of this region.  相似文献   

Response of littoral chironomid communities and organic matter to late glacial lake—level,vegetation and climate changes at Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany,Italy)     

Laurent Millet  Boris Vannière  Valérie Verneaux  Michel Magny  Jean Robert Disnar  Fatima Laggoun-Défarge  Anne Véronique Walter-Simonnet  Gilles Bossuet  Elena Ortu  Jacques-Louis de Beaulieu 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,38(4):525-539

This study focuses on the response of lacustrine littoral chironomid communities to late glacial changes in limnological, environmental and climate conditions in the Mediterranean context. Late glacial chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry were analysed in a sediment core from the littoral zone of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy), where the lake-level fluctuations and the vegetation history have been previously reconstructed. Comparison of the chironomid stratigraphy to other proxies (pollen assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry, lake-level) and regional climate reconstruction suggested the predominant influence of lake-level changes on the littoral chironomid fauna. The main lowering events that occurred during the Oldest and the Younger Dryas were followed by higher proportions of taxa typical of littoral habitats. A complementary study of organic matter suggested the indirect impact of lake-level on the chironomids through changes in humic status and habitat characteristics, such as the type of substrate and aquatic macrophyte development. Several chironomid taxa, such as Glyptotendipes, Microtendipes and Cricotopus type patens, were identified as possible indicators of low lake-level in the late glacial records. Nevertheless, this study suggested that parallel analyses of organic matter and chironomid assemblages may be needed to circumvent misinterpretation of littoral chironomid assemblage stratigraphy. There was a weak response of the chironomid assemblages to small lake-level lowerings that corresponded to the Older Dryas and Preboreal oscillations. A higher level of determination, e.g. to the species group level, may be necessary to increase the sensibility of the indicators to lake-level changes.  相似文献   

胶东脉型金矿定量统计模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈国华  刘连登  吴国学  杨峰  仇广乐  张辉煌 《黄金地质》2001,7(4):33-40

胶东存在中深成和浅成两类脉型金矿。定量统计模型研究发现，形成于 挤压地球动力学环境的中深成脉型金矿，成矿深度相对深，规模大，矿化强，形成于拉张地球动力学环境的浅成脉型金矿，成矿深度相对浅，规模小，矿化弱。  相似文献   

Stochastic delineation of wellhead protection area in fractured aquifers and parametric sensitivity study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Chevalier  M. A. Buès  J. Tournebize  O. Banton 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2001,15(3):205-227

 In many countries, the setup of protection areas around every drinking water well was instituted at a national level in order to preserve the quality of water as well as the perennially of the resource. Wellhead protection surfaces have been defined using capture zones showing the area influenced by a well within a certain time. A stochastic method is developed for delineating time-related capture zones in fractured aquifers characterised by a low porosity and a high degree of fracturing. The flow velocity within the fractures is determined statistically depending on the distribution of the fracture features and the mass transfer solution is obtained through a particle tracking algorithm. Probabilistic capture zone curves are obtained as a function of the travel time of particles to the well and the percentage of particles apt to be extracted up to this time. A sensitivity study of fracture network parameters leads to the conclusion that orientations and aperture distribution of the fracture sets are of primary importance to the wellhead protection delineation.  相似文献   

Rheology and geodynamic modelling: the next step forward     

M. Handy  J. Braun  M. Brown  N. Kukowski  M. Paterson  S. Schmid  B. Stöckhert  K. Stüwe  A. Thompson  E. Wosnitza 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2001,90(1):149-156

The application of continuum mechanics and microstructural analysis to geological studies over the past 30 years has spurred earth scientists to reassess fundamental tectonic processes such as subduction, collision and rifting in terms of dynamics. Armed with new analytical methods, geologists have returned to the field to look at rock structures with more mechanistic eyes. The advent of sophisticated computers, programs, and laboratory deformation equipment has facilitated the simulation of geodynamic processes that range in scale from the grain to the lithosphere. The result has been specialization, with the concomitant opening of communication gaps between geodynamicists, field geologists and rock mechanicists. Partly, these gaps reflect differences of perception and approach. In order to bridge these gaps, a workshop was organized after the DRM conference to debate how field and laboratory studies of deformed rocks can improve our understanding of lithospheric rheology, and in turn, how this understanding can be used to refine dynamic models of orogenesis. The workshop hosted participants with backgrounds in structural geology, experimental rock mechanics, metamorphic petrology and both numerical and analogue modelling. This paper summarizes the main controversies and conclusions reached during the workshop. For the sake of brevity, referencing in this summary is restricted to literature referred to during the oral presentations and to comments made by speakers themselves (names italicized).  相似文献   

Petrogenesis of the amphibole-rich veins from the Lherz orogenic lherzolite massif (Eastern Pyrenees, France): a case study for the origin of orthopyroxene-bearing amphibole pyroxenites in the lithospheric mantle     

J. Fabriès  J.-P. Lorand  M. Guiraud 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2001,140(4):383-403

The Lherz orogenic lherzolite massif (Eastern French Pyrenees) displays one of the best exposures of subcontinental lithospheric mantle containing veins of amphibole pyroxenites and hornblendites. A reappraisal of the petrogenesis of these rocks has been attempted from a comprehensive study of their mutual structural relationships, their petrography and their mineral compositions. Amphibole pyroxenites comprise clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and spinel as early cumulus phases, with garnet and late-magmatic K₂O-poor pargasite replacing clinopyroxene, and subsolidus exsolution products (olivine, spinel II, garnet II, plagioclase). The original magmatic mineralogy and rock compositions were partly obscured by late-intrusive hornblendites and over a few centimetres by vein–wallrock exchange reactions which continued down to subsolidus temperatures for Mg–Fe. Thermobarometric data and liquidus parageneses indicate that amphibole pyroxenites started to crystallize at P ≥ 13 kbar and recrystallized at P < 12 kbar. The high Al^VI/Al^IV ratio (>1) of clinopyroxenes, the early precipitation of orthopyroxene and the late-magmatic amphibole are arguments for parental melts richer in silica but poorer in water than alkali basalts. Their modelled major element compositions are similar to transitional alkali basalt with about 1–3 wt% H₂O. In contrast to amphibole pyroxenites, hornblendites only show kaersutite as liquidus phase, and phlogopite as intercumulus phase. They are interpreted as crystalline segregates from primary basanitic magmas (mg=0.6; 4–6 wt% H₂O). These latter cannot be related to the parental liquids of amphibole pyroxenites by a fractional crystallization process. Rather, basanitic liquids mostly reused pre-existing pyroxenite vein conduits at a higher structural level (P ≤ 10 kbar). A continuous process of redox melting and/or alkali melt/peridotite interaction in a veined lithospheric mantle is proposed to account for the origin of the Lherz hydrous veins. The transitional basalt composition is interpreted in terms of extensive dissolution of olivine and orthopyroxene from wallrock peridotite by alkaline melts produced at the mechanical boundary layer/thermal boundary layer transition (about 45–50 km deep). Continuous fluid ingress allowed remelting of the deeper veined mantle to produce the basanitic, strongly volatiles enriched, melts that precipitated hornblendites. A similar model could be valid for the few orthopyroxene-rich hydrous pyroxenites described in basalt-hosted mantle xenoliths. Received: 15 September 1999 / Accepted: 31 January 2000  相似文献   

Study of the air-sea interactions at the mesoscale: the SEMAPHORE experiment     

L. Eymard  S. Planton  P. Durand  C. Le Visage  P. Y. Le Traon  L. Prieur  A. Weill  D. Hauser  J. Rolland  J. Pelon  F. Baudin  B. Bénech  J. L. Brenguier  G. Caniaux  P. De Mey  E. Dombrowski  A. Druilhet  H. Dupuis  B. Ferret  C. Flamant  P. Flamant  F. Hernandez  D. Jourdan  K. Katsaros  D. Lambert  J. M. Lefèvre  P. Le Borgne  B. Le Squere  A. Marsoin  H. Roquet  J. Tournadre  V. Trouillet  A. Tychensky  B. Zakardjian 《Annales Geophysicae》1996,14(9):986-1015

The SEMAPHORE (Structure des Echanges Mer-Atmosphère, Propriétés des Hétérogénéités Océaniques: Recherche Expérimentale) experiment has been conducted from June to November 1993 in the Northeast Atlantic between the Azores and Madeira. It was centered on the study of the mesoscale ocean circulation and air-sea interactions. The experimental investigation was achieved at the mesoscale using moorings, floats, and ship hydrological survey, and at a smaller scale by one dedicated ship, two instrumented aircraft, and surface drifting buoys, for one and a half month in October-November (IOP: intense observing period). Observations from meteorological operational satellites as well as spaceborne microwave sensors were used in complement. The main studies undertaken concern the mesoscale ocean, the upper ocean, the atmospheric boundary layer, and the sea surface, and first results are presented for the various topics. From data analysis and model simulations, the main characteristics of the ocean circulation were deduced, showing the close relationship between the Azores front meander and the occurrence of Mediterranean water lenses (meddies), and the shift between the Azores current frontal signature at the surface and within the thermocline. Using drifting buoys and ship data in the upper ocean, the gap between the scales of the atmospheric forcing and the oceanic variability was made evident. A 2 °C decrease and a 40-m deepening of the mixed layer were measured within the IOP, associated with a heating loss of about 100 W m⁻². This evolution was shown to be strongly connected to the occurrence of storms at the beginning and the end of October. Above the surface, turbulent measurements from ship and aircraft were analyzed across the surface thermal front, showing a 30% difference in heat fluxes between both sides during a 4-day period, and the respective contributions of the wind and the surface temperature were evaluated. The classical momentum flux bulk parameterization was found to fail in low wind and unstable conditions. Finally, the sea surface was investigated using airborne and satellite radars and wave buoys. A wave model, operationally used, was found to get better results compared with radar and wave-buoy measurements, when initialized using an improved wind field, obtained by assimilating satellite and buoy wind data in a meteorological model. A detailed analysis of a 2-day period showed that the swell component, propagating from a far source area, is underestimated in the wave model. A data base has been created, containing all experimental measurements. It will allow us to pursue the interpretation of observations and to test model simulations in the ocean, at the surface and in the atmospheric boundary layer, and to investigate the ocean-atmosphere coupling at the local and mesoscales.  相似文献   

Nature et origine des „andésites“ et „trachyandésites“ cénozoiques du Massif Central Français     

Dr. M. Girod  C. Lefèvre 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1972,36(4):315-328

The intermediate lavas (andesites, trachyandesites, doreites, sancyites) of the Cenozoïc volcanic districts of the Massif Central (France) are compared with lavas of the alkaline and calc-alkaline suites. On ground of mineralogical and chemical data, two groups may be recognized. The rocks of the first group bear a close resemblance with the intermediate rocks that result of the differentiation of an alkaline basaltic magma. The rocks of the second group, less numerous, possess one or several characters identical to those of calc-alkaline andesites.The contamination suffered by some lavas of both groups has not been sufficient to blot out their comagmatic characteristics.  相似文献