Measurements of Flows Over Isolated Valleys     

Brian?Garvey  Ian?P.?CastroEmail author  Giles?Wiggs  Joanna?Bullard 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,117(3):417-446

Wind-tunnel measurements of the flow over an isolated valley both normal and at an angle (45°) to a simulated neutrally stable atmospheric boundary layer are presented. Attention is concentrated on the nature of the flow within the valley itself. The work formed part of a wider study that included detailed field measurements around an African desert valley and some limited comparisons with that work are included. A scale of about 1:1000 was used for the laboratory work, in which an appropriate combination of hot wire and particle image velocimetry was employed. For a valley normal to the upwind flow, it is shown that the upstream influence of the valley extends to a distance of at least one half of the axial valley width upstream of the leading edge, whereas differences in mean flow and turbulence could be identified well beyond two valley widths from the downwind edge. Non-normal wind angles lead to significant along-valley flows within the valley and, even at two valley heights above the valley ridge level, there remains a significant spanwise flow component. Downwind turbulence levels are somewhat lower in this case, but are still considerably higher than in the undisturbed boundary layer. At both flow angles, there are significant recirculation regions within the valleys, starting from mean separation just beyond the leading edge, but the strong spanwise flow in the 45° case reduces the axial extent of the separated zone. The flow is shown to be in some ways analogous to flow over an isolated hill. Our results usefully enhance the field data and could be used to improve modelling of saltation processes in the field.  相似文献   

Book Review: Burroughs,William (ed.): Climate into the 21st Century,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, 2003, ISBN-0-521-79202-9, 240 pp., 35 $     

Axel?MichaelowaEmail author 《Climatic change》2005,68(3):379-380

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Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions     

Steven?J.?SmithEmail author  Hugh?Pitcher  T.?M.?L.?Wigley 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):267-318

The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.  相似文献   

The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts     

Dáithí?A.?StoneEmail author  Myles?R.?Allen 《Climatic change》2005,71(3):303-318

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.  相似文献   

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art     

Rudolf?BráZdilEmail author  Christian?Pfister  Heinz?Wanner  Hans?Von?Storch  JüRg?Luterbacher 《Climatic change》2005,70(3):363-430

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.  相似文献   

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios     

Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author  Jessica?Hartman  Nathan?Chan  John?Mcconnell  Michael?Schlesinger  John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.  相似文献   

Carbon Sequestration in Arable Soils is Likely to Increase Nitrous Oxide Emissions,Offsetting Reductions in Climate Radiative Forcing   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Changsheng?Li  Steve?FrolkingEmail author  Klaus?Butterbach-Bahl 《Climatic change》2005,72(3):321-338

Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles, and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N, with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Reduced tillage, enhanced crop residue incorporation, and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration, increased N₂O emissions, and had little effect on CH₄ uptake. Over 20 years, increases in N₂O emissions, which were converted into CO₂-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers, offset 75–310% of the carbon sequestered, depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection.  相似文献   

Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical Origins,Recent Interpretations   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Michael?OppenheimerEmail author  Annie?Petsonk 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):195-226

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for “dangerous anthropogenic interference” and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 ^∘C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO₂ equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ronald?D.?SandsEmail author  James?A.?Edmonds 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):127-150

PNNLs Agriculture and Land Use is used to demonstrate the impact of potential changes in climate on agricultural production and land use in the United States. AgLU simulates production of four crop types in several world regions, in 15-yr time steps from 1990 to 2095. Changes in yield of major field crops in the United States, for 12 climate scenarios, are obtained from simulations of the EPIC crop growth model. Results from the HUMUS model are used to constrain crop irrigation, and BIOME3 model is used to simulate productivity of unmanaged ecosystems. Assumptions about changes in agricultural productivity outside the United States are treated on a scenario basis, either responding in the same way as in the United States, or not responding to climate.  相似文献   

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment     

Allison?M.?ThomsonEmail author  Robert?A.?Brown  Norman?J.?Rosenberg  R.?Cesar?Izaurralde  Verel?Benson 《Climatic change》2005,69(1):43-65

Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops—corn, soybeans, and winter wheat—and two forage crops—alfalfa and clover hay—is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than ±50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced.  相似文献