数值天气预报和气候预测的集合预报方法:思考与展望     

段晚锁  汪叶  霍振华  周菲凡 《气候与环境研究》2019,24(3):396-406

从初始误差、模式误差以及两者综合影响的角度,综述了天气、气候集合预报方法的研究进展,指出了传统方法的优势,同时也评论了这些方法的局限性,提出了对未来先进集合预报方法的一些思考,以及需要解决的挑战性问题和可能的应用。  相似文献   

基于SRTM数据的天气雷达探测环境分析研究   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

景号然  谢晓琳  郑伟  彭涛  刘娟  刘宗庆 《气象》2019,45(6):871-876

利用SRTM高程数据作为选址基础数据,结合天气雷达工作方式和探测方法,计算得到天气雷达在0.5°、1.0°、2.4°仰角上地物遮挡情况;利用高程格点数据获得3个仰角的地物剖面数据,提高了SRTM数据利用精度和运算速度;分析中结合地球曲率和电磁波折射影响,改进算法获得站点遮蔽角图,站点上空1 km、海拔3和6 km等射束高度图及数据,该分析结果充分体现了SRTM数据的高分辨率特点。最后将结果数据与GIS地图结合,完成了四川省天气雷达网探测环境分析,并给出了各个台站评估结果。  相似文献   

WRF模式中不同土地利用数据对新疆一次高温天气模拟的影响     

马玉芬  肖莲媛  李火青  杜娟 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,(1):52-62

本研究在WRF(v3.8.1)中分别使用MODIS 21类和USGS 24类土地利用类型数据,模拟了新疆2017年7月9日的极端高温天气,并在对模拟温度进行了高度订正的基础上,对比了两种土地利用数据对2 m温度预报的影响。结果表明:(1)MODIS和USGS在新疆地区的土地利用差异主要在阿尔泰山、天山以及南疆西部的昆仑山北部海拔3000 m以上的高山带,相应地,使用USGS模拟的这些高山带2 m气温明显高于使用MODIS的模拟值,最高偏高12 K左右,是全疆范围内两者偏差的极大值。(2)就新疆区域而言,使用USGS模拟的2 m气温整体优于使用MODIS的模拟值,且USGS模拟的2 m温度整体低于MODIS模拟的2 m温度。两者与实况的偏差多在2 K以内。(3)在伊犁河谷,MODIS土地利用类型主要为"旱地/草地",USGS为"草地"和"农田/林地马赛克"。伊犁河谷代表站点2 m温度模拟多以高温偏低、低温偏高为主。(4)与MODIS相比,USGS中哈密地区"农田/林地马赛克"所占比重明显增大。哈密地区多数代表站点高、低温均以偏低为主。(5)站点温度的高度订正多以调低为主,调低幅度最大值为1.9 K,出现在伊犁河谷的尼勒克站。站点2 m温度的调整幅度整体上明显大于MODIS和USGS模拟2 m温度的差值,由此可见温度高度订正的必要性。  相似文献   

基于不同分辨率和参数化方案的新疆区域数值模式性能初步评估     

杜娟  李曼  于晓晶  辛渝 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2019,(3):57-65

基于中尺度数值模式WRF,选取新疆两次强降水过程,设计3个试验方案,其中试验1为控制试验,试验2提高分辨率,试验3提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案,初步评估不同分辨率和参数化方案对新疆区域2m温度、10m风速、降水预报的影响。结果表明:(1)提高分辨率对2m温度、10m风速模拟精度均有提高,2m温度预报精度提高约0.5℃,降低了日间温度模拟冷偏差;10m风速预报精度提高约0.5m/s,降低了风速模拟正偏差;但提高分辨率后,模式出现虚假降水预报的情况。(2)提高分辨率并调整物理参数化方案后,2m温度模拟误差略有减小,模拟偏差减小约0.2℃;10m风速模拟误差增大约0.5m/s,模拟偏差增大超过0.5m/s;对降水落区、量级的模拟精度显著提高,减小了降水中心的模拟强度,对虚假降水预报有一定修正。  相似文献   

Potential Influence of a Developing La Niña on the Sea-Ice Reduction in the Barents–Kara Seas     

Rui Luo  Peng Zhang  Juan Dou 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):182-194

Abstract

The potential influence of a developing La Niña on Arctic sea-ice annual variability is investigated using both observational data and an atmospheric general circulation model. It is found that during the developing phase of an eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña event in June, July, and August (JJA) and September, October, and November (SON), the sea-ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents–Kara Seas declines more than 15%. The local atmospheric circulation pattern associated with the EP La Niña is characterized as a weak decrease in geopotential height over the Barents–Kara Seas, combined with an anticyclone in the North Atlantic. The corresponding southerly winds push warm waters northward into the key sea-ice reduction region and directly accelerate sea-ice melt. Meanwhile, the abundant moisture contained in the lower troposphere is transported into the Arctic region by winds resulting from the local barotropic structure. The humid atmosphere contributes to both net shortwave and longwave radiation and thus indirectly accelerates the decline in sea ice. Simulations by the European Centre Hamburg Model, version 5.4, are forced by observed sea surface temperature anomalies associated with EP La Niña events. The results of the simulations capture the North Atlantic anticyclone and reproduce the moisture transport, which supports the premise that an EP La Niña plays a crucial role in sea-ice reduction over the Barents–Kara sector from the perspective of atmospheric circulation and net surface heat flux.  相似文献   

Stable ⁸⁵Rb micro vapour cells: fabrication based on anodic bonding and application in chip-scale atomic clocks     

苏娟  邓科  郭等柱  汪中  陈兢  张耿民  陈徐宗 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(11)

We describe the microfabrication of ⁸⁵Rb vapour cells using a glass-silicon anodic bonding technique and in situ chemical reaction between rubidium chloride and barium azide to produce Rb. Under controlled conditions, the pure metallic Rb drops and buffer gases were obtained in the cells with a few mm³ internal volumes during the cell sealing process. At an ambient temperature of 90 ℃ the optical absorption resonance of ⁸⁵Rb D1 transition with proper broadening and the corresponding coherent population trapping (CPT) resonance, with a signal contrast of 1.5% and linewidth of about 1.7 kHz, have been detected. The sealing quality and the stability of the cells have also been demonstrated experimentally by using the helium leaking detection and the after-9-month optoelectronics measurement which shows a similar CPT signal as its original status. In addition, the physics package of chip-scale atomic clock (CSAC) based on the cell was realized. The measured frequency stability of the physics package can reach to 2.1×10^-10 at one second when the cell was heated to 100 ℃ which proved that the cell has the quality to be used in portable and battery-operated devices.  相似文献   

Simulation of moist mountain waves with an anelastic model     

Juan Carlos Jusem  Albert Barcilon 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-4):259-276

Abstract

A two-dimensional, nonlinear, time-dependent, non-hydrostatic, anelastic, numerical model is used to assess the effect of condensation on the evolution and structure of gravity waves generated by the passage of a stable, moist stream over topography. Precipation is ignored but water phase changes are taken into account explicitly.

The main effect of condensation is to damp the wave intensity and to reduce the wave drag, which can be diminished by as much as 50% compared to its value in dry simulations. This result agrees with some earlier analytical models and some more recent fully compressible numerical models.

This model also confirms that the presence of condensation delays the overturning of isentropes, and the formation of the critical layer that accompanies wave-breaking.  相似文献   

不同培养基对小球藻Chlorella zofingiensis生长和虾青素产量的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

彭娟  王艳  向文洲  陈峰 《热带海洋学报》2010,29(3)

研究了小球藻Chlorella zofingiensis在3种不同培养基CZ-M1, Kuhl 和 KM1中培养时生物量和虾青素的产量.结果表明, Kuhl最利于小球藻的生长, 比生长速率、最大细胞干重和得率最高, 虾青素含量最低;KM1培养基最利于虾青素的积累.采用优化后的培养基KM1, 添加葡萄糖诱导培养小球藻, 可以获得8.99g·L-1的藻细胞干重, 虾青素产量和含量分别达到20.1mg·L-1和2.24mg·g-1.  相似文献   

The infrared dielectric properties of maghemite, γ-Fe2O3, from reflectance measurement on pressed powders     

Carlos Pecharromán  T. González-Carreño  Juan E. Iglesias 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1995,22(1):21-29

The infrared complex permittivity functions of three varieties of maghemite, γ-Fe₂O₃, having different degrees of vacancy ordering, have been determined from their IR reflectance spectra, measured at near to normal incidence on pressed powder pellets. The optical constants therefrom obtained have been verified by using them in the simulation of the corresponding absorption spectra for KBr-diluted pellets, and these are in excellent agreement with the experimental spectra. All calculations are based on a procedure for the estimation of the effective dielectric function of a mixture, which incorporates percolation features, recently developed by the authors.  相似文献   

北京地区臭氧垂直分布的演变趋势与特征的研究——卫星SBUV资料与地面遥感对比分析          下载免费PDF全文

魏鼎文  陈辉 《地球物理学报》1991,34(4):415-425

利用地面遥感O₃垂直分布的逆转方法〈C〉测量出的北京上空O₃剖面资料,对雨云7号卫星的SBUV系统测量的同地区的O₃垂直分布数据进行了订正.对订正后的长达8年（1979-1986年）的完整的SBUV资料进行了较为仔细的分析,得出了这一时期内的O₃垂直分布长期演变呈下降趋势.并在上层O₃含量的季节变化特征和周期振荡等方面,有新的发现,得出一些有意义的结果.  相似文献