Correspondence     

Mrs Kathleen Sherrard  Dr Hermann Jaeger 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(2):351-352

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Food consumption,diet shifts and associated non-CO2 greenhouse gases from agricultural production     

Alexander Popp  Hermann Lotze-Campen  Benjamin Bodirsky 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(3):451-462

Today, the agricultural sector accounts for approximately 15% of total global anthropogenic emissions, mainly methane and nitrous oxide. Projecting the future development of agricultural non-CO₂ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important to assess their impacts on the climate system but poses many problems as future demand of agricultural products is highly uncertain. We developed a global land use model (MAgPIE) that is suited to assess future anthropogenic agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions from various agricultural activities by combining socio-economic information on population, income, food demand, and production costs with spatially explicit environmental data on potential crop yields. In this article we describe how agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions are implemented within MAgPIE and compare our simulation results with other studies. Furthermore, we apply the model up to 2055 to assess the impact of future changes in food consumption and diet shifts, but also of technological mitigation options on agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions. As a result, we found that global agricultural non-CO₂ emissions increase significantly until 2055 if food energy consumption and diet preferences remain constant at the level of 1995. Non-CO₂ GHG emissions will rise even more if increasing food energy consumption and changing dietary preferences towards higher value foods, like meat and milk, with increasing income are taken into account. In contrast, under a scenario of reduced meat consumption, non-CO₂ GHG emissions would decrease even compared to 1995. Technological mitigation options in the agricultural sector have also the capability of decreasing non-CO₂ GHG emissions significantly. However, these technological mitigation options are not as effective as changes in food consumption. Highest reduction potentials will be achieved by a combination of both approaches.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary vegetation,climate and fire dynamics inferred from the El Tiro record in the southeastern Ecuadorian Andes     

Holger Niemann  Hermann Behling 《第四纪科学杂志》2008,23(3):203-212

In order to study the stability and dynamics of mountain rainforest and paramo ecosystems, including the biodiversity of these ecosystems, the Holocene and late Pleistocene climate and fire variability, and human impact in the southeastern Ecuadorian Andes, we present a high‐resolution pollen record from El Tiro Pass (2810 m elevation), Podocarpus National Park. Palaeoenvironmental changes, investigated by pollen, spores and charcoal analysis, inferred from a 127 cm long core spanning the last ca. 21 000 cal. yr BP, indicate that grass‐paramo was the main vegetation type at the El Tiro Pass during the late Pleistocene period. The grass‐paramo was rich in Poaceae, Plantago rigida and Plantago australis, reflecting cold and moist climatic conditions. During the early Holocene, from 11 200 to 8900 cal. yr BP, subparamo and upper mountain rainforest vegetation expanded slightly, indicating a slow warming of climatic conditions during this period. From 8900 to 3300 cal. yr BP an upper mountain rainforest developed at the study site, indicated by an increase in Hedyosmun, Podocarpaceae, Myrsine and Ilex. This suggests a warmer climate than the present day at this elevation. The modern subparamo vegetation became established since 3300 cal. yr BP at El Tiro Pass. Fires, probably anthropogenic origin, were very rare during the late Pleistocene but became frequent after 8000 cal. yr BP. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Cyclone Gonu storm surge in Oman     

Hermann M. Fritz  Christopher D. Blount  Fawzi B. Albusaidi  Ahmed Hamoud Mohammed Al-Harthy 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010

Super Cyclone Gonu is the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. Gonu caused coastal damage due to storm surge and storm wave impact as well as wadi flooding. High water marks, overland flow depths, and inundation distances were measured in the coastal flood zones along the Gulf of Oman from 1 to 4 August 2007. The high water marks peaked at Ras al-Hadd at the eastern tip of Oman exceeding 5 m. The storm surge of Gonu is modeled using the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC). The multi-hazard aspect is analyzed by comparing observations from Cyclone Gonu with the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami.  相似文献   

Stardust-NExT,Deep Impact,and the accelerating spin of 9P/Tempel 1     

Michael J.S. Belton  Karen J. Meech  Steven Chesley  Jana Pittichová  Brian Carcich  Michal Drahus  Alan Harris  Stephen Gillam  Joseph Veverka  Nicholas Mastrodemos  William Owen  Michael F. A’Hearn  S. Bagnulo  J. Bai  L. Barrera  Fabienne Bastien  James M. Bauer  J. Bedient  B.C. Bhatt  Hermann Boehnhardt  H. Zhao 《Icarus》2011,213(1):345-368

The evolution of the spin rate of Comet 9P/Tempel 1 through two perihelion passages (in 2000 and 2005) is determined from 1922 Earth-based observations taken over a period of 13 year as part of a World-Wide observing campaign and from 2888 observations taken over a period of 50 days from the Deep Impact spacecraft. We determine the following sidereal spin rates (periods): 209.023 ± 0.025°/dy (41.335 ± 0.005 h) prior to the 2000 perihelion passage, 210.448 ± 0.016°/dy (41.055 ± 0.003 h) for the interval between the 2000 and 2005 perihelion passages, 211.856 ± 0.030°/dy (40.783 ± 0.006 h) from Deep Impact photometry just prior to the 2005 perihelion passage, and 211.625 ± 0.012°/dy (40.827 ± 0.002 h) in the interval 2006–2010 following the 2005 perihelion passage. The period decreased by 16.8 ± 0.3 min during the 2000 passage and by 13.7 ± 0.2 min during the 2005 passage suggesting a secular decrease in the net torque. The change in spin rate is asymmetric with respect to perihelion with the maximum net torque being applied on approach to perihelion. The Deep Impact data alone show that the spin rate was increasing at a rate of 0.024 ± 0.003°/dy/dy at JD2453530.60510 (i.e., 25.134 dy before impact), which provides independent confirmation of the change seen in the Earth-based observations.The rotational phase of the nucleus at times before and after each perihelion and at the Deep Impact encounter is estimated based on the Thomas et al. (Thomas et al. [2007]. Icarus 187, 4–15) pole and longitude system. The possibility of a 180° error in the rotational phase is assessed and found to be significant. Analytical and physical modeling of the behavior of the spin rate through of each perihelion is presented and used as a basis to predict the rotational state of the nucleus at the time of the nominal (i.e., prior to February 2010) Stardust-NExT encounter on 2011 February 14 at 20:42.We find that a net torque in the range of 0.3–2.5 × 10⁷ kg m² s^?2 acts on the nucleus during perihelion passage. The spin rate initially slows down on approach to perihelion and then passes through a minimum. It then accelerates rapidly as it passes through perihelion eventually reaching a maximum post-perihelion. It then decreases to a stable value as the nucleus moves away from the Sun. We find that the pole direction is unlikely to precess by more than ～1° per perihelion passage. The trend of the period with time and the fact that the modeled peak torque occurs before perihelion are in agreement with published accounts of trends in water production rate and suggests that widespread H₂O out-gassing from the surface is largely responsible for the observed spin-up.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of ultrahigh-pressure anatexis: fractionation of elements in the Kokchetav gneisses during melting at diamond-facies conditions     

Aleksandr S. Stepanov  Joerg Hermann  Andrey V. Korsakov  Daniela Rubatto 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(5):1-25

The Kokchetav complex in Kazakhstan contains garnet-bearing gneisses that formed by partial melting of metasedimentary rocks at ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) conditions. Partial melting and melt extraction from these rocks is documented by a decrease in K₂O and an increase in FeO + MgO in the restites. The most characteristic trace element feature of the Kokchetav UHP restites is a strong depletion in light rare earth elements (LREE), Th and U. This is attributed to complete dissolution of monazite/allanite in the melt and variable degree of melt extraction. In contrast, Zr concentrations remain approximately constant in all gneisses. Using experimentally determined solubilities of LREE and Zr in high-pressure melts, these data constrain the temperature of melting to ~1,000 °C. Large ion lithophile elements (LILE) are only moderately depleted in the samples that have the lowest U, Th and LREE contents, indicating that phengite retains some LILE in the residue. Some restites display an increase in Nb/Ta with respect to the protolith. This further suggests the presence of phengite, which, in contrast to rutile, preferentially incorporates Nb over Ta. The trace element fractionation observed during UHP anatexis in the Kokchetav gneisses is significantly different from depletions reported in low-pressure restites, where generally no LREE and Th depletion occurs. Melting at UHP conditions resulted in an increase in the Sm/Nd ratio and a decoupling of the Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf systems in the restite. Further subduction of such restites and mixing with mantle rocks might thus lead to a distinct isotopic reservoir different from the bulk continental crust.  相似文献   

Do shorebirds graze down zoobenthic biomass at the Banc d'Arguin tidal flats in Mauritania?     

Wim J. Wolff  Hermann Michaelis 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2008,79(3):491-495

The 500 km² of tidal flats at the Banc d'Arguin, Mauritania, are a wintering site for over 2 million shorebirds, making this one of the areas with the highest density of shorebirds in the world. In earlier studies, it was found that these huge numbers of birds are dependent on a rather low biomass of benthic animals. To explain this paradoxical situation, we hypothesized that the earlier assessments of biomass in late winter and early spring do not reflect a year-round situation. Benthic biomass may be high when the birds arrive in autumn to be subsequently grazed down in the course of winter. To test this hypothesis, we have determined benthic biomass in September 1988. The result has been compared with a biomass value obtained in February–April 1986 with the same methods and at the same stations. These two biomass values do not differ significantly; so our hypothesis has to be rejected. It has to be admitted, however, that our experimental design cannot discern between differences due to the year of sampling and those due to the season.  相似文献   

UNFCCC before and after Paris – what's necessary for an effective climate regime?     

Lukas Hermwille  Wolfgang Obergassel  Hermann E. Ott  Christiane Beuermann 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):150-170

What can reasonably be expected from the UNFCCC process and the climate conference in Paris 2015? To achieve transformative change, prevailing unsustainable routines embedded in socio-economic systems have to be translated into new and sustainable ones. This article conceptualizes the UNFCCC and the associated policy processes as a catalyst for this translation by applying a structurational regime model. This model provides an analytical distinction of rules (norms and shared meaning) and resources (economic resources as well as authoritative and allocative power) and allows us to conceptualize agency on various levels, including beyond nation states. The analysis concludes that the UNFCCC's narrow focus on emission targets, which essentially is a focus on resources, has proven ineffective. In addition, the static division of industrialized and developing countries in the Convention's annexes and the consensus-based decision-making rules have impeded ambitious climate protection. The article concludes that the UNFCCC is much better equipped to provide rules for climate protection activities and should consciously expand this feature to improve its impact.

Policy relevance

The international community is negotiating a new global climate agreement, to be adopted at the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) in December 2015 in Paris and to be applicable from 2020. This article analyses the successes and limitations the UNFCCC has had so far in combating climate change and it develops recommendations on how to enhance efforts within and beyond the framework of the Convention. From our analysis we derive two main recommendations for an effective and structurationally balanced treaty: First, multidimensional mitigation contributions going beyond emission targets could strongly improve countries’ abilities to tailor their contributions around national political discourses. Second, the UNFCCC regime should be complemented with another treaty outside of the UNFCCC framework. This ‘Alliance of the Ambitious’ would allow the pioneers of climate protection to move ahead and enjoy the benefits of cooperation. The dynamics generated through such a club approach could be fed back into the UNFCCC, leading to increased ambition by others in future commitment cycles.  相似文献   

A meteorite impact crater field in eastern Bavaria? A preliminary report     

Karl Thomas Fehr  Jean Pohl  Werner Mayer  Rupert Hochleitner  Jrg Fassbinder  Erwin Geiss  Hermann Kerscher 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(2):187-194

Abstract— Numerous circular depressions north of Burghausen in eastern Bavaria, with diameters ranging from meters to tens of meters in size and dispersed over an area of at least 11 times 7 km, are suspected to have an extraterrestrial origin since they resemble other small meteorite impact craters. The depressions are bowl‐shaped, have high circularity and a characteristic rim. Most of them were formed in unconsolidated glacial gravels and pebbles intermixed with fine‐grained sand and clay. Magnetic investigations reveal weak anomalies with amplitudes of less than ±10 nano Tesla (nT). In some cases, the origins of the anomalies are suspected to be due to human activity within the structures. So far, no traces of meteoritic material have been detected. An evident archaeological or local geological explanation for the origin of the craters does not exist. A World War I and II explosive origin can be excluded since trees with ages exceeding 100 years can be found in some craters. One crater was described in 1909. Carbon‐14 dating of charcoal found in one crater yielded an age of 1790 ± 60 years. Hence, a formation by meteorite impacts that occurred in Celtic or early medieval times should be considered. A systematic archaeological excavation of some structures and an intensified search for traces of meteoritic material are planned.  相似文献   

In Memoriam Professor Vladímir Vanýsek,Editor in-Chief of Earth,Moon, and Planets     

Böhnhardt  Hermann 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1997,76(1-2):1-3

Earth, Moon, and Planets -  相似文献