Large-scale climate variability and its effects on mean temperature and flowering time of Prunus and Betula in Denmark     

A. K. Gormsen  A. Hense  T. B. Toldam-Andersen  P. Braun 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2005,82(1-2):41-50

Summary Large-scale climate variability largely affects average climatic conditions and therefore is likely to influence the phenology of plants. In NW-Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) particularly influences winter climate and, through climate interactions on plants, flowering time of all tree species. In Denmark, like in many other NW-European countries, flowering of most tree species has become earlier since the end of the 1980’s. To quantify a possible relation between NAO and flowering time of tree species, two sources of phenological information from the Copenhagen area (Denmark) were analysed, i.e. pollen counts of the genus Betula and observed first bloom dates of Prunus avium. The Winter NAO explained 29 and 37% of the variation of monthly mean temperature for February and March, respectively. The influence of temperature on flowering time was up to 56% to 60% for the February–April mean. A direct correlation of Winter NAO-index and flowering time also revealed a clear relation but the time of influence was earlier (December to February). This was shown to be the likely result of a combination of direct and time-lagged effects of the NAO on air and sea surface temperature. The NAO signal is apparently stored in the North Sea and then influences temperature east up to the Baltic States. It is shown that Denmark is right in the centre of direct and time-lagged effects of the NAO. This offers the possibility of using the NAO-index for predicting flowering time of Prunus avium. The beginning of pollen flow appears to be influenced too much by short-term perturbations of the climate system decreasing the value of the NAO-index for prediction. However, it indicates a close relationship between natural climate variability, measured by the NAO index, and flowering time of tree species for Denmark.  相似文献   

How dynamical models can learn from the data��an example with a simplified ENSO model     

Heiko Paeth  Janna Lindenberg  Maik Kschischo  Andreas Hense 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,104(1-2):221-231

Most dynamical models of the natural system contain a number of empirical parameters which reflect our limited understanding of the simulated system or describe unresolved subgrid-scale processes. While the parameterizations basically introduce some uncertainty to the model results, they also hold the prospect of tuning the model. In general, a deterministic tuning is related to an inversion of the model which is often impossible or requires considerable computing effort for most climate models. Another way to adjust the model parameters to a specific observed process is stochastic fitting where a set of parameters and model output are taken as random variables. Here, we present a dynamical?Cstatistical approach with a simplified model of the El Ni?o?CSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle whose parameters are adjusted to simulated and observed data by means of Bayesian statistics. As ENSO model, we employ the Schop?CSuarez delay oscillator model. Monte Carlo experiments highlight the large sensitivity of the model results to varied model parameters and initial values. The statistical adjustment is done by Bayesian model averaging of the Monte Carlo experiments. Applying the method to simulated data, the posterior ensemble mean is much closer to the reference data than the prior ensemble mean. The learning effect of the model is evident in the leading empirical orthogonal functions and statistically significant in the mean state. When the method is applied to the observed ENSO time series, the ENSO model in its classical setup is not able to account for the temporally varying periodicity of the observed ENSO phenomenon. An improved setup with continuous adjustment periods and extended parameter range is developed in order to allow the model to learn from the data gradually. The improved setup leads to promising results during the twentieth century and even a weak forecast skill over 6?months. Thus, the described method offers a promising tool for data assimilation in dynamical weather and climate models. However, the simplified ENSO model is barely appropriate for operational ENSO forecasts owing to its limited physical complexity.  相似文献   

Probabilistic assessment of regional climate change in Southwest Germany by ensemble dressing   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Christian Schölzel  Andreas Hense 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(9-10):2003-2014

Since single-integration climate models only provide one possible realization of climate variability, ensembles are a promising way to estimate the uncertainty in climate modeling. A statistical model is presented that extracts information from an ensemble of regional climate simulations to estimate probability distributions of future temperature change in Southwest Germany in the following two decades. The method used here is related to kernel dressing which has been extended to a multivariate approach in order to estimate the temporal autocovariance in the ensemble system. It has been applied to annual and seasonal mean temperatures given by ensembles of the coupled general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM as well as the regional climate simulations using the COSMO-CLM model. The results are interpreted in terms of the bivariate probability density of mean and trend within the period 2011–2030 with respect to 1961–1990. Throughout the study region one can observe an average increase in annual mean temperature of approximately +0.6K and a corresponding trend of +0.15K/20a. While the increase in 20-year mean temperature is virtually certain, the 20-year trend still shows a 20% chance for negative values. This indicates that the natural variability of the climate system, as far as it is reflected by the ensemble system, can produce negative trends even in the presence of longer-term warming. Winter temperatures are clearly more affected and for both quantities we observe a north-to-south pattern where the increase in the very southern part is less intense.  相似文献   

Anthropogenic organic contaminants in water, sediments and benthic organisms of the mangrove-fringed Segara Anakan Lagoon, Java, Indonesia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dsikowitzky L  Nordhaus I  Jennerjahn TC  Khrycheva P  Sivatharshan Y  Yuwono E  Schwarzbauer J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(4):851-80

Segara Anakan, a mangrove-fringed coastal lagoon in Indonesia, has a high diversity of macrobenthic invertebrates and is increasingly affected by human activities. We found >50 organic contaminants in water, sediment and macrobenthic invertebrates from the lagoon most of which were polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs). Composition of PACs pointed to petrogenic contamination in the eastern lagoon. PACs mainly consisted of alkylated PAHs, which are more abundant in crude oil than parent PAHs. Highest total PAC concentration in sediment was above reported toxicity thresholds for aquatic invertebrates. Other identified compounds derived from municipal sewage and also included novel contaminants like triphenylphosphine oxide. Numbers of stored contaminants varied between species which is probably related to differences in microhabitat and feeding mode. Most contaminants were detected in Telescopium telescopium and Polymesoda erosa. Our findings suggest that more attention should be paid to the risk potential of alkylated PAHs, which has hardly been addressed previously.  相似文献   

Heterogeneity preserving upscaling for heat transport in fractured geothermal reservoirs     

Anna Nissen  Eirik Keilegavlen  Tor Harald Sandve  Inga Berre  Jan Martin Nordbotten 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(2):451-467

In simulation of fluid injection in fractured geothermal reservoirs, the characteristics of the physical processes are severely affected by the local occurence of connected fractures. To resolve these structurally dominated processes, there is a need to develop discretization strategies that also limit computational effort. In this paper, we present an upscaling methodology for geothermal heat transport with fractures represented explicitly in the computational grid. The heat transport is modeled by an advection-conduction equation for the temperature, and solved on a highly irregular coarse grid that preserves the fracture heterogeneity. The upscaling is based on different strategies for the advective term and the conductive term. The coarse scale advective term is constructed from sums of fine scale fluxes, whereas the coarse scale conductive term is constructed based on numerically computed basis functions. The method naturally incorporates the coupling between solution variables in the matrix and in the fractures, respectively, via the discretization. In this way, explicit transfer terms that couple fracture and matrix solution variables are avoided. Numerical results show that the upscaling methodology performs well, in particular for large upscaling ratios, and that it is applicable also to highly complex fracture networks.  相似文献   

Controls on the deep thermal field: implications from 3-D numerical simulations for the geothermal research site Groß Schönebeck   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Yvonne Cherubini  Mauro Cacace  Magdalena Scheck-Wenderoth  Inga Moeck  Björn Lewerenz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(8):3619-3642

The deep thermal field in sedimentary basins can be affected by convection, conduction or both resulting from the structural inventory, physical properties of geological layers and physical processes taking place therein. For geothermal energy extraction, the controlling factors of the deep thermal field need to be understood to delineate favorable drill sites and exploitation compartments. We use geologically based 3-D finite element simulations to figure out the geologic controls on the thermal field of the geothermal research site Groß Schönebeck located in the E part of the North German Basin. Its target reservoir consists of Permian Rotliegend clastics that compose the lower part of a succession of Late Carboniferous to Cenozoic sediments, subdivided into several aquifers and aquicludes. The sedimentary succession includes a layer of mobilized Upper Permian Zechstein salt which plays a special role for the thermal field due to its high thermal conductivity. Furthermore, the salt is impermeable and due to its rheology decouples the fault systems in the suprasalt units from subsalt layers. Conductive and coupled fluid and heat transport simulations are carried out to assess the relative impact of different heat transfer mechanisms on the temperature distribution. The measured temperatures in 7 wells are used for model validation and show a better fit with models considering fluid and heat transport than with a purely conductive model. Our results suggest that advective and convective heat transport are important heat transfer processes in the suprasalt sediments. In contrast, thermal conduction mainly controls the subsalt layers. With a third simulation, we investigate the influence of a major permeable and of three impermeable faults dissecting the subsalt target reservoir and compare the results to the coupled model where no faults are integrated. The permeable fault may have a local, strong impact on the thermal, pressure and velocity fields whereas the impermeable faults only cause deviations of the pressure field.  相似文献   

Northern hemisphere atmospheric response to changes of atlantic ocean SST on decadal time scales: a GCM experiment     

Andreas Hense  Rita Glowienka-Hense  Hans von Storch  Ursula Stähler 《Climate Dynamics》1990,4(3):157-174

Analyses indicate that the Atlantic Ocean seasurface temperature (SST) was considerably colder at the beginning than in the middle of the century. In parallel, a systematic change in the North Atlantic sea-level pressure (SLP) pattern was observed. To find out whether the SST and SLP changes analyzed are consistent, which would indicate that the SST change was real and not an instrumental artifact, a response experiment with a low-resolution (T21) atmospheric GCM was performed. Two perpetual January simulations were conducted, which differ solely in the Atlantic Ocean (40° S-60° N) SST: the cold simulation utilizes the SSTs for the period 1904–1913; the warm simulation uses the SSTs for the period 1951–1960. Also, a control run with the model's standard SST somewhat between the cold and warm SST was made. For the response analysis, a rigorous statistical approach was taken. First, the null hypothesis of identical horizontal distributions was subjected to a multivariate significance test. Second, the level of recurrence was estimated. The multivariate statistical approaches are based on hierarchies of test models. We examined three different hierarchies: a scale-dependent hierarchy based on spherical harmonics (S), and two physically motivated ones, one based on the barotropic normal modes of the mean 300 hPa flow (B) and one based on the eigenmodes of the advection diffusion operator at 1000 hPa (A). The intercomparison of the cold and warm experiments indicates a signal in the geostrophic stream function that in the S-hierarchy is significantly nonzero and highly recurrent. In the A-hierarchy, the low level temperature field is identified as being significantly and recurrently affected by the altered SST distribution. The SLP signal is reasonably similar to the SLP change observed. Unexpectedly, the upper level stream-function signal does not appear to be significantly nonzero in the B-hierarchy. If, however, the pairs of experiments warm versus control and cold versus control are examined in the B-hierarchy, a highly significant and recurrent signal emerges. We conclude that the cold versus warm response is not a small disturbance that would allow the signal to be described by eigenmodes of the linear system. An analysis of the three-dimensional structure of the signal leads to the hypothesis that two different mechanisms are acting to modify the model's mean state. At low levels, local heating and advection are dominant, but at upper levels the extratropical signal is a remote responce to modifications of the tropical convection.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil.AWI Publication no. 254  相似文献   

Lateglacial and early Holocene dynamics of adjacent valley glaciers in the Western Swiss Alps     

Inga Schindelwig  Naki Akçar  Peter W. Kubik  Christian Schlüchter 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(1):114-124

The Alps play a pivotal role for glacier and climate reconstructions within Europe. Detailed glacial chronologies provide important insights into mechanisms of glaciation and climate change. We present 26 ¹⁰Be exposure dates of glacially transported boulders situated on moraines and ice‐moulded bedrock samples at the Belalp cirque and the Great Aletsch valley, Switzerland. Weighted mean ages of ～10.9, 11.1, 11.0 and 9.6 ka for the Belalp, on up to six individual moraine ridges, constrain these moraines to the Egesen, Kartell and Schams stadials during Lateglacial to early Holocene times. The weighted mean age of ～12.5 ka for the right‐lateral moraine of the Great Aletsch correlates with the Egesen stadial related to the Younger Dryas cooling. These data indicate that during the early Holocene between ～11.7 and ～9.2 ka, glaciers in the Swiss Alps seem to have been significantly affected by cold climatic conditions initiated during the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal Oscillation. These conditions resulted in glacier margin oscillations relating to climatic fluctuations during the second phase of the Younger Dryas – and continuing into Boreal times – as supported by correlation of the innermost moraine of the Belalp Cirque to the Schams (early) Holocene stage. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Signal analysis of the atmospheric mean 500/1000 hPa temperature north of 55°N between 1949 and 1994     

H. Paeth  A. Hense 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):345-358

 The lower tropospheric mean temperature 500/1000 hPa is examined in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region north of 55°N with regard to a climate change signal due to anthropogenic climate forcing as a supplement to previous studies which concentrated on near surface temperatures. An observational data set of the German Weather Service is compared with several model simulations including different scenarios of greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing derived from the two recent versions of the coupled climate model in Hamburg, ECHAM-3/LSG and ECHAM-4/OPYC. The signal analysis is based on the optimal fingerprint method, which supplies a detection variable with optimal signal-to-noise ratio. The natural variability measures are derived from the corresponding long-term control experiments. From 1970 onward, we find high trend pattern analogies between the observational data and the greenhouse-gas induced model simulations. The fingerprint of this common temperature signal consists of a predominate warming with maximum over Siberia and a weak cooling over the North Atlantic reaching an estimated significance level of about 1%. A non-optimized approach has also been examined, leading to even closer trend pattern correlations. The additional forcing by sulfate aerosols decreases the correlation of this climate change simulation with the observations. The natural variability constitutes about 50% of the conforming trend patterns. The signal-to-noise ratio is best over the oceans while the tropospheric temperatures over the land masses are contaminated by strong noise. The trend pattern correlations look the same for both model versions and several ensemble members with different noise realizations. Received: 4 January 1999 / Accepted: 11 April 2001  相似文献   

Food preferences of mangrove crabs related to leaf nitrogen compounds in the Segara Anakan Lagoon,Java, Indonesia     

Inga Nordhaus  Tabea Salewski  Tim C. Jennerjahn 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(4):414-426

The large amounts of leaf litter produced by tropical mangrove forests serve as a major food source for the benthic fauna. The reasons for the preferential consumption of mangrove leaves by crabs are unclear as yet. We investigated the diet, food preferences and consumption rates of 8 dominant grapsoid crab species (Perisesarma spp., Episesarma spp., Metopograpsus latifrons, and Metaplax elegans) in mangroves of Segara Anakan, Java, Indonesia, by means of stomach-content analysis and feeding experiments. Leaves from the five most abundant mangrove tree species (Aegiceras corniculatum, Avicennia alba, Ceriops decandra, Rhizophora apiculata, and Sonneratia caseolaris) were analyzed for organic carbon, total nitrogen, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and amino acids and hexosamines. This study is the first that investigated crab food preferences related to the nitrogen compound composition of leaves.Our results show that Episesarma spp. and Perisesarma spp. are omnivorous crabs which mainly feed on detritus, mangrove litter and bark, and on a small amount of roots, algae and animal matter whereas M. elegans is a detritus feeder. In feeding experiments with green, yellow and brown leaves Perisesarma spp. and E. singaporense had the highest consumption rates for brown leaves of R. apiculata and S. caseolaris, and for green leaves of A. alba. Preferred leaves were characterized by a high amount and/or freshness of nitrogenous compounds and their biochemical composition was significantly different from that of disliked leaves (all leaves of A. corniculatum and C. decandra, green and yellow leaves of R. apiculata and S. caseolaris). The presence of the hexosamine galactosamine found only in brown leaves indicates that bacteria contribute to the amount of bioavailable nitrogen compounds. We infer that the nitrogen compound composition rather than the C/N ratio alone is a determinant for bioavailability of mangrove leaves and hence may partly explain the crabs' food preferences.  相似文献