Public perceptions of rainfall change in India   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Peter D. Howe  Jagadish Thaker  Anthony Leiserowitz 《Climatic change》2014,127(2):211-225

People’s perceptions of changes in local weather patterns are an important precursor to proactive adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we consider public perceptions of changes in average rainfall in India, analyzing the relationship between perceptions and the instrumental record. Using data from a national sample survey, we find that local instrumental records of precipitation are a strong predictor of perceived declines in rainfall. Perceptions of decreasing rainfall were also associated with perceptions of changes in extreme weather events, such as decreasing frequency of floods and severe storms, increasing frequency of droughts, and decreasing predictability of the monsoon. Higher social vulnerability—including low perceived adaptive capacity and greater food and livelihood dependence on local weather—was also associated with perceptions of decreasing rainfall. While both urban and rural respondents were likely to perceive local changes in precipitation, we show that rural respondents in general were more sensitive to actual changes in precipitation. Individual perceptions of changes in local climate may play an important role in shaping vulnerability to global climate change, adaptive behavior, and support for adaptation and mitigation policies. Awareness of local climate change is therefore particularly important in regions where much of the population is highly exposed and sensitive to the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

The response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations     

Sonali P. Shukla  Michael J. Puma  Benjamin I. Cook 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):21-36

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson’s r = ?0.66 and r = ?0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = ?0.72 and r = ?0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by ~40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land–sea temperature gradients.  相似文献   

Soil responses near Delhi ridge and adjacent regions in Greater Delhi during incidence of a local earthquake     

H. S. Mandal  P. K. Khan  A. K. Shukla 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(1):93-118

In this study, soil response was carried out for the Greater Delhi region. A folded Proterozoic formation was identified as Delhi ridge, passes through its central part along SSW–NNE direction, and appears to be a main geomorphic feature for the study area. The Delhi ridge is an exposed quartzite rock of about 10–100 m wide and ~25 km long with gentler dipping both toward east and west. We have considered the exposed part as an outcrop side near the ridge axis and the dipping area as rigid base away from the ridge axis for ground motion study during the occurrence of the 25 November 2007 earthquake with magnitude M _L 4.3 (Richter scale) that occurred at Delhi–Haryana State boundary. The degree of shaking was very strong and reported major cracks in the buildings near the epicenter area. We have studied the soil response parameters at the surface level, considering horizontally stratified soil layers above rigid base. The equivalent linear method was used for soil response analysis at 25 sites in Greater Delhi area. The peak amplification factors vary from 3.2 to 5.9 and peak resonance frequency varies from 1.2 to 5.3 Hz. The correlation among the peak amplification factor (A) and frequency (f) was empirically established as A = 0.36f + 3.60. Increasing peak amplification factor was found at sites with increasingly thicker alluvium deposit with lower frequency contains ground motion and vice versa. Seismic zoning map was also reconstructed for peak amplification factors and predominant periods for the study area for the mitigation purposes of earthquake damage. The average shear wave velocity up to 30 m soil depth is also obtained for site classification. The average velocity to 30 m [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] is a widely used parameter for classifying sites for predicting their potentiality to amplify seismic shaking. A lower value [ $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ ] thus yields a more conservative estimate of ground motion, which generally increases as $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ decreases. Present estimate of $ \overline{{V_{\text{s}} }} (30) $ varies from 315 to 419 m/s. In this study, we have identified two site classes C and D, as per National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program. The city planner or engineers can directly use these data for site-specific assessment during retrofitting of the existing structure, demolition of the old buildings and design a new structure to avoid major destruction of the buildings due to future earthquake.  相似文献   

Fall,classification and cosmogenic records of the Sabrum (LL6) chondrite     

S. Ghosh  S. V. S. Murty  P. N. Shukla  A. D. Shukla  R. R. Mahajan  N. Bhandari  N. C. Pant  J. B. Ghosh  S. Shome 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(3):439-448

Abstract— The petrographic and chemical characteristics of a fresh Indian meteorite fall at Sabrum are described. Its mean mineral composition is defined by olivine (Fa_31.4), orthopyroxene (Fs_25.1,Wo_2.0), clinopyroxene (Wo₄₅En_45.6Fs_9.4) and plagioclase (An_10.6Ab_83.6Or_5.8). The meteorite shows moderate shock features, which indicate that it belongs to the S4 category. Based on mineralogical and chemical criteria the meteorite is classified as an LL6 brecciated veined chondrite. Several cosmogenic radioisotopes (⁴⁶Sc, ⁷Be, ⁵⁴Mn, ²²Na and ²⁶Al), noble gas (He, Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe), nitrogen isotopes, and particle tracks density have been measured. Concentrations of cosmogenic ²¹Ne and ³⁸Ar indicate that its cosmic‐ray exposure age is 24.8 Ma. Small amounts of trapped Kr and Xe, consistent with petrologic class 5/6, are present. The track density in olivines is found to be (1.3 ± 0.3) × 10⁶/cm². Activities of most of the short‐lived isotopes are lower than those expected from solar cycle variation. ²²Na/²⁶Al (1.12 ± 0.02) is found to be significantly anomalous, being ?25% lower than expected from the Climax neutron monitor data. These results indicate that the cosmic‐ray flux during the terminal segment of the meteoroid orbit was low. The activities of ²⁶Al and ⁶⁰Co and the track density indicate small meteoroid size with a radius ?15 cm.  相似文献   

Pancake cyclones and anti-cyclones in the ionosphere     

V. I. Petviashvili  O. A. Pokhotelov  P. K. Shukla  L. Stenflo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,202(2):363-372

The formation of pancake cyclones and anticyclones in the E-region of the Earth's ionosphere is considered. It is shown that the vortices can be maintained by the neutral winds or by chemical reactions including the energy release caused by the triple collisions of atomic oxygen with neutrals. It is found that the variations of the magnetic fields induced by the vortices are not localized and decrease slowly far from the vortex core. They can be easily detected by ground based magnetometers or by facilities on board the low-orbiting satellites.  相似文献   

Electron surfing acceleration in oblique magnetic fields     

M. E. Dieckmann  B. Eliasson  M. Parviainen  P. K. Shukla  A. Ynnerman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,367(3):865-872

Initially, inhomogeneous plasma jets, ejected by active galactic nuclei and associated with gamma-ray bursts, are thermalized by the formation of internal shocks. Jet subpopulations can hereby collide at Lorentz factors of a few. As the resulting relativistic shock expands into the upstream plasma, a significant fraction of the upstream ions is reflected. These ions, together with downstream ions that leak through the shock, form relativistic beams of ions that outrun the shock. The thermalization of these beams via the two-stream instability is thought to contribute significantly to plasma heating and particle acceleration by the shock. Here, the capability of a two-stream instability to generate relativistic field-aligned and cross-field electron flow, is examined for a magnetized plasma by means of a particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation. The electrons interact with the developing quasi-electrostatic waves and oblique magnetic fields. The simulation results bring forward evidence that such waves, by their non-linear interactions with the plasma, produce a highly relativistic field-aligned electron flow and electron energies, which could contribute to the radio synchrotron emissions from astrophysical jets, to ultrarelativistic leptonic subpopulations propagating with the jet and to the halo particles surrounding the accretion disc of the black hole.  相似文献   

Effect of biochar on desiccation of marine soils under constant and cyclic temperatures     

Puspanathan  Thellen Kumar  Jayawardane  Vihan Shenal  Paul  Suvash Chandra  Ying  Kong Sih  Shukla  Sanjay Kumar  Anggraini  Vivi 《Acta Geotechnica》2022,17(12):5441-5464

Acta Geotechnica - Biochar has recently been gaining increasing attention as a stable and sustainable soil amendment material. However, the effect of biochar amendment on the desiccation behaviour...  相似文献   

Effect of radiation pressure on the stability of L 4,5 in the relativistic R3BP     

Jagadish Singh  Nakone Bello 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,351(2):483-490

This paper examines the motion of a test particle in the vicinity of the triangular points L _4,5 by considering the more massive primary as a source of radiation in the framework of the relativistic restricted three-body problem (R3BP). It is found that the position and stability of the triangular point are affected by both the relativistic factor and radiation pressure.  相似文献   

Motion around L 4 in the perturbed relativistic R3BP     

Jagadish Singh  Nakone Bello 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,351(2):491-497

This paper studies the motion of a test particle (infinitesimal mass) in the neighborhood of the triangular point L ₄ in the framework of the perturbed relativistic restricted three-body problem (R3BP). The problem is perturbed in the sense that a small perturbation is given to the centrifugal force. It is found that the position and stability of the triangular point are affected by both the relativistic factor and a small perturbation in the centrifugal force.  相似文献   

General class of Bianchi cosmological models with Λ in creation-field cosmology     

R. Chaubey  A. K. Shukla  Ashutosh Singh  T. Singh 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,352(2):839-857

The solutions of Einstein’s equations with cosmological constant (Λ) in the presence of a creation field have been obtained for general class of anisotropic cosmological models. We have obtained the cosmological solutions for two different scenarios of average scale factor. In first case, we have discussed three different types of physically viable cosmological solutions of average scale factor for the general class of Bianchi cosmological models by using a special law for deceleration parameter which is linear in time with a negative slope. In second case, we have discussed another three different forms of cosmological solutions by using the average scale factor in three different scenarios like Intermediate scenario, Logamediate scenario and Emergent scenario. All physical parameters are calculated and discussed in each physical viable cosmological model. We examine the nature of creation field and cosmological constant is dominated the early Universe but they do not survive for long time and finally tends to zero for large cosmic time t. We have also discussed the all energy conditions in each cases.  相似文献