Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models     

Wilson C. H. Chan  Julian R. Thompson  Richard G. Taylor  Alistair E. Nay  Tenalem Ayenew  Alan M. MacDonald 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(10):1720-1737

ABSTRACT

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on river discharge in the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia, is assessed using five MIKE SHE hydrological models, six CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios for the period 2071–2100. Hydrological models vary in their spatial distribution and process representations of unsaturated and saturated zones. Very good performance is achieved for 1975–1999 (NSE: 0.65–0.8; r: 0.79–0.93). GCM-related uncertainty dominates variability in projections of high and mean discharges (mean: –34% to +55% for RCP4.5, – 2% to +195% for RCP8.5). Although GCMs dominate uncertainty in projected low flows, inter-hydrological model uncertainty is considerable (RCP4.5: –60% to +228%, RCP8.5: –86% to +337%). Analysis of variance uncertainty attribution reveals that GCM-related uncertainty occupies, on average, 68% of total uncertainty for median and high flows and hydrological models no more than 1%. For low flows, hydrological model uncertainty occupies, on average, 18% of total uncertainty; GCM-related uncertainty remains substantial (average: 28%).  相似文献   

Modeling the Free Surface of an Unconfined Aquifer Near a Recirculation Well   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Thomas R. MacDonald  Peter K. Kitanidis 《Ground water》1993,31(5):774-780

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Climatic soil moisture deficit - climate and soil data integration in a GIS   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. B. Matthews  A. MacDonald  R. J. Aspinall  G. Hudson  A. N. R. Law  E. Paterson 《Climatic change》1994,28(3):273-287

This paper discusses a GIS based implementation of a model for soil droughtiness assessment evaluating the impact of possible climate change. It focuses, in particular, on the development of a methodology for mapping Available Water Capacity. An assessment of the Soil Drought Susceptibility for Scotland in the year 2030 is made and illustrated with maps and derived statistics.  相似文献   

Evolution of rifted ocean ridges     

Ken C. MacDonald  Tanya M. Atwater 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1978,39(3):319-327

A major question in seafloor tectonics has been, how does the 2-km-deep rift valley characteristic of slow-spreading ridges evolve into the relatively horizontal undulating relief of the rift mountains? Deep-tow studies of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge suggest that the primary mechanism for transformation of the rift valley topography is normal faulting along fault planes which dip away from the valley axis. The faulting occurs in a narrow zone just beyond the outer walls of the rift valley. This model allows for a steady-state evolution of the rift valley into the rift mountains in which the state of stress in the oceanic lithosphere continues to be in horizontal deviatoric tension throughout the entire process. Alternate mechanisms involving reverse faulting or regional tilt may be active but are found to be of less importance. Implications for various dynamic models of the rift valley are discussed.  相似文献   

Viewing Highland Scotland: ideology, representation and the 'natural heritage'     

Fraser MacDonald 《Area》1998,30(3):237-244

Summary This paper reconsiders the role of conservation within the cultural politics of Highland Scotland. The crofting version of the natural heritage debate is regarded as counter-hegemonic to dominant discourses of conservation and the sporting estate. That view is given precedence in defining the ecology and landscape of the Highlands.  相似文献   

Chemical processes and migration of elements during retrogression of a staurolite-zone assemblage in western North Carolina     

David W. Mohr  Robert L. Barnett  Joanna Michie 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,92(3):400-411

A detailed study of retrograde alteration of a staurolite porphyroblast and its surrounding matrix of mica schist has made use of petrographic, modal, and microprobe analysis. Retrogression was to the garnet zone of metamorphism and apparently occurred largely after a temperature decline of 70–100° C. The event caused metasomatic removal of Zn but may have been isochemical relative to other analyzed elements. The best estimate of the overall reaction is: 1 staurolite+3.018 biotite+3.550 quartz+0.629 albite +0.014 anorthite+0.678 NaCl+14.004 H₂O =3.274 Na-rich muscovite+3.561 chlorite +0.273 ilmenite+0.110 chloritoid+0.039 garnet +0.339 ZnCl₂.Non-systematic variation in composition of analyzed minerals is revealed by statistical treatment of replicate analyses. Such variation involves monovalent and divalent cations within many minerals, but is most pronounced within retrograde muscovite. Muscovite variation involves Si and Al as well as FM and alkalis and does not follow a phengite law of charge-coupled substitution.Relative to the core of the retrograded staurolite crystal, zoning is seen in averaged muscovite compositions and in development of incompatible mineral assemblages, which include chloritoid well within retrograded staurolite but biotite within the matrix. A local gradient in the chemical potential of an Al-bearing component was likely present during retrogression.Alteration of staurolite was probably accomplished by reaction and diffusion through the medium of an intergranular fluid phase. Relative to staurolite, migration of elements involved immigration of considerable amounts of Mg, Na, K, and H and expulsion of Al, Fe, Zn, and O. It is inferred that concentration of Al within the fluid phase was considerably lower than those of monovalent and divalent cations.Preservation of considerable staurolite and evidence for a local concentration gradient of Al in the fluid phase suggest that limited amounts of H₂O were available. Expulsion of Zn suggests that much water was not consumed locally but exited the terrane. An attempt at resolution of this dilemna involves fracture-channelized infiltration of H₂O into the rock. A more regional petrographic study of retrogression suggests that H₂O which entered the rock may have been liberated initially by prograde dehydration at a moderately greater depth of 2–3 km.Results of this study, especially the non-phengitic nature of crystal-chemical substitution within muscovite, indicate chemical reaction under conditions of disequilibrium. Apparently, extent of retrogression was controlled by availability of H₂O rather than by thermochemical equilibria.  相似文献   

Composition and petrology of the earth's mantle | A.E. Ringwood, 1976. McGraw-Hill,Dusseldorf, 618 pp., D.M. 95.80     

G.J. MacDonald 《Earth》1977,13(1):115

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MICRONESIA AT THE CROSSROADS: A REAPPRAISAL OF THE MICRO-NESIAN POLITICAL DILEMMA. By Carl Heine     

Barrit MacDonald 《New Zealand geographer》1976,32(1):94-95

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The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil     

Maria Carmen Lemos  Timothy J. Finan  Roger W. Fox  Donald R. Nelson  Joanna Tucker 《Climatic change》2002,55(4):479-507

This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceará, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a)characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c)institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceará case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.  相似文献   

Socio-spatial polarization and the (re-)distribution of deprived groups in world cities: A case study of Hong Kong     

Huiwei Chen  Mee Kam Ng  Murat Es  Joanna Lee  Winnie W. S. Mak  Yuying Tong 《Urban geography》2018,39(7):969-987

This paper draws on theoretical discussions of world cities to analyze socio-spatial polarization and (re-)distribution of deprived groups in Hong Kong in the 2000s. Intensifying global economic restructuring processes have induced socio-economic polarization, thereby producing deprived groups although the spatial outcomes may depend on the city-specific context. When local policies do not counteract the polarization trend, a spatial manifestation of widening socio-economic gaps can be expected. Intensified pro-growth policies adopted since Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule in 1997 and during its economic recession in the early 2000s have worsened the impact of globalization-induced socio-economic and spatial restructuring. Census data from 2001 and 2011 show increasingly differentiated socio-economic profiles at the district level. The analysis offered in this study also points to a decreased socially mixed society in 2011 when the deprived groups lived in districts with less presence of the advantaged population.  相似文献