Sea levels of different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (ζ) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a ζ projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of ζ change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and ζ. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the ζ change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic ζ change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.
Supergranulation is visible at the solar surface as a cellular pattern of horizontal outflows. Although it does not show a distinct intensity pattern, it manifests itself indirectly in, for example, the chromospheric network. Previous studies have reported significant differences in the inferred basic parameters of the supergranulation phenomenon. Here we study the structure and temporal evolution of a large sample of supergranules, measured by using local helioseismology and SOHO/MDI data from the year 2000 at solar activity minimum. Local helioseismology with f modes provides maps of the horizontal divergence of the flow velocity at a depth of about 1 Mm. From these divergence maps supergranular cells were identified by using Fourier segmentation procedures in two dimensions and in three dimensions (two spatial dimensions plus time). The maps that we analyzed contain more than 105 supergranular cells and more than 103 lifetime histories, which makes possible a detailed analysis with high statistical significance. We find that the supergranular cells have a mean diameter of 27.1 Mm. The mean lifetime is estimated to be 1.6 days from the measured distribution of lifetimes (three-dimensional segmentation), with a clear tendency for larger cells to live longer than smaller ones. The pair and mark correlation functions do not show pronounced features on scales larger than the typical cell size, which suggests purely random cell positions. The temporal histories of supergranular cells indicate a smooth evolution from their emergence and growth in the first half of their lives to their decay in the second half of their lives (unlike exploding granules, which reach their maximum size just before they fragment). 相似文献
The Vaal River Barrage, situated on the south-eastern border of the Gauteng Province, has been part of the hydrological landscape of South Africa’s most populous and economically active region for more than eight decades. After its completion in 1923 the Barrage was compromised by the construction, upstream, of the Vaal Dam (1930-1933). Today the Vaal River Barrage is primarily a storage facility of sewage and industrial waste water. South Africa’s transition to a multi-racial democracy in 1994 saw a number of socio-economic and political transformations that affected the water infrastructure. In the field of sanitation infrastructure in particular, conditions have deteriorated to the extent that the health of people in many parts of the country is being compromised.Using the Vaal River Barrage as a case study, this article outlines the efforts by civil society to make the relevant government sectors aware of this hazardous state of affairs. particular attention is given to save our Vaal environment (SAVE), a non-governmental organisation, at the helm of an active campaign to reduce pollution in the Vaal River Barrage. 相似文献
Mineralogy and Petrology - The scheelite exploration target Messelingscharte (Eastern Tyrol, Austria) is located in vicinity of the world-class Felbertal tungsten deposit. W-(Sn) mineralisation... 相似文献
The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios
for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming, an assessment of variations and
trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections, we
examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained
from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful
indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling
to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments, we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute
to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability.
The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend
measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data, we estimate non-significant MOC trends
for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century, however, the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and
accompanied mid-depth warming trend. 相似文献
Summary We study the three-dimensional transport of Mt. Pinatubo volcanic cloud with the climate model ECHAM4. In order to obtain
model results comparable with observations a Newtonian relaxation technique was applied, which forces prognostic model variables
towards the observations. A comparison of the simulated aerosol distribution with satellite data reveals good agreement for
the first months after the eruption. The model, however, is unable to simulate the tropical aerosol maximum in 1992 and also
overestimates the vertical downward and northward transport of aerosols. Substantial improvement was achieved with the introduction
of reduced advective vertical transport through the 380 K isentropic layer. Heating rates and top of the atmosphere fluxes,
which were calculated online for the first half year after the eruption, are in the observed range. A comparison of Pinatubo
simulations between three different vertical ECHAM4 versions (ECHAM4 L19, ECHAM4 L39, MA/ECHAM4) indicates that a vertical
resolution of ≈ 700 m in the tropopause region is sufficient to realistically reduce the vertical transport through the tropopause.
Consideration of the upper branch of the Brewer Dobson circulation in the MA/ECHAM4 model improves the geographical distribution
of the volcanic cloud. The application of a relaxation technique can further reduce major shortcomings of stratospheric simulations
with the standard climate model. There remain, however some critical points in the global transport characteristics in all
three models which are not fully understood.
Received December 19, 1997 Revised July 22, 1998 相似文献