Are We There Yet? A Roadmap to Understanding National Park Service Rulemaking     

Jeffrey J. Cook 《社会与自然资源》2014,27(12):1257-1270

The preproposal stage of the rulemaking process is notoriously understudied, but enormously important in determining regulatory outputs. Recently, Rinfret (2011c Rinfret , S. R. 2011c . Frames of influence: U.S. environmental rulemaking case studies . Rev. Policy Res. 28 ( 3 ): 231 – 245 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) analyzed the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) rulemaking process and developed a frame analysis model to interpret stakeholder influence during the preproposal stage. Rinfret argues that stakeholders use three frames to influence agency rulemaking, including an expertise, a fiscal feasibility, and an information frame. This article tests this model to determine whether it is applicable to other federal agencies such as the National Park Service (NPS). Through an analysis of stakeholder framing within the 2012 NPS Yellowstone Winter Use Rule, this research confirms that Rinfret's model is indeed applicable to the NPS process. Therefore, this research suggests that this theoretical model examining stakeholder influence is applicable to other public land agencies, and arguably can be applied across the bureaucracy.  相似文献   

The response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon circulation to intensified irrigation in global climate model simulations     

Sonali P. Shukla  Michael J. Puma  Benjamin I. Cook 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):21-36

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson’s r = ?0.66 and r = ?0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = ?0.72 and r = ?0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by ~40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land–sea temperature gradients.  相似文献   

Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa     

Joshua W. Busby  Kerry H. Cook  Edward K. Vizy  Todd G. Smith  Mesfin Bekalo 《Climatic change》2014,124(4):717-731

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events—dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days—coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.  相似文献   

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model     

Elaine?R.?MilesEmail author  Claire?M.?Spillman  John?A.?Church  Peter?C.?McIntosh 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):2131-2145

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.  相似文献   

Urbanization and child growth failure in Sub-Saharan Africa: a geographical analysis     

Ru  Yating  Haile  Beliyou  Carruthers  John I. 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2022,24(3):441-473

Journal of Geographical Systems - This paper raises a fundamental question about Sub-Saharan Africa: has urbanization there been accompanied by improvements in personal wellbeing? It then proceeds...  相似文献   

Selection of Less Biased Threshold Angles for SAM Classification Using the Real Value–Area Fractal Technique     

Hadi Shahriari  Hojjatollah Ranjbar  Mehdi Honarmand  Emmanuel John M. Carranza 《Resource Geology》2014,64(4):301-315

The accuracy of classification of the Spectral Angle Mapping (SAM) is warranted by choosing the appropriate threshold angles, which are normally defined by the user. Trial‐and‐error and statistical methods are commonly applied to determine threshold angles. In this paper, we discuss a real value–area (RV–A) technique based on the established concentration–area (C–A) fractal model to determine less biased threshold angles for SAM classification of multispectral images. Short wave infrared (SWIR) bands of the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images were used over and around the Sar Cheshmeh porphyry Cu deposit and Seridune porphyry Cu prospect. Reference spectra from the known hydrothermal alteration zones in each study area were chosen for producing respective rule images. Segmentation of each rule image resulted in a RV–A curve. Hydrothermal alteration mapping based on threshold values of each RV–A curve showed that the first break in each curve is practical for selection of optimum threshold angles. The hydrothermal alteration maps of the study areas were evaluated by field and laboratory studies including X–ray diffraction analysis, spectral analysis, and thin section study of rock samples. The accuracy of the SAM classification was evaluated by using an error matrix. Overall accuracies of 80.62% and 75.45% were acquired in the Sar Cheshmeh and Seridune areas, respectively. We also used different threshold angles obtained by some statistical techniques to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed RV–A technique. Threshold angles provided by statistical techniques could not enhance the hydrothermal alteration zones around the known deposits, as good as threshold angles obtained by the RV–A technique. Since no arbitrary parameter is defined by the user in the application of the RV‐A technique, its application prevents introduction of human bias to the selection of optimum threshold angle for SAM classification.  相似文献   

The “Boscobel Landslip” of October 1st, 1901—the largest historic landslide in Barbados,West Indies     

David Cruden  Hans G. Machel  John Knox  Richard Goddard 《Landslides》2014,11(4):673-684

Barbados is a small Caribbean island located on the crest of an accretionary prism about 125 km east of the Lesser Antilles volcanic island arc. The oldest strata, Eocene sandstones and shales, are overlain by Oligocene–Miocene chalks and marls, in turn overlain by Pleistocene reef and lagoonal limestones that cover about 85 % of the island. The Eocene sediments, which crop out in the Scotland District of Barbados, are prone to soil creep and landslides covering tens to hundreds of hectares. The largest historic landslide, the “Boscobel Landslip,” occurred on 01 October 1901. We used nineteenth-century and more modern topographic and geologic maps, air photographs, and various archival and petrophysical data, to supplement reconnaissance of the landslide in the field. We identified about ten million cubic meters of the displaced material of the landslide, as well as the meteorological and geological conditions that contributed to the Boscobel Landslip. Similar landslides would pose a presently unquantified hazard to inhabitation and future development in the Scotland District.  相似文献   

Transport of Crustacean Larvae Between a Low-Inflow Estuary and Coastal Waters     

Steven G. Morgan  Jennifer L. Fisher  Skyli T. McAfee  John L. Largier  Seth H. Miller  Megan M. Sheridan  Joseph E. Neigel 《Estuaries and Coasts》2014,37(5):1269-1283

The effectiveness of larval behavior in regulating transport between well-mixed, low-inflow estuaries and coastal waters in seasonally arid climates is poorly known. We determined the flux of an assemblage of benthic crustacean larvae relative to physical conditions between a shallow estuary and coastal waters on the upwelling coast of northern California (38°18′N, 123°03′W) from 29 to 31 March 2006. We detected larval behaviors that regulate transport in adjacent coastal waters and other estuaries for only two taxa in the low-inflow estuary, but they were apparent for taxa outside the estuary. Vertical mixing in the shallow estuary may have overwhelmed larvae of some species, or salinity fluctuations may have been too slight to cue tidal vertical migrations. Nevertheless, all larval stages of species that complete development in nearshore coastal waters were present in the estuary, because they remained low in the water column reducing seaward advection or they were readily exchanged between the estuary and open coast by tidal flows. Weak tidal flows and gravitational circulation at the head of the estuary reduced seaward transport during development for species that completed development nearshore, whereas larval release during nocturnal ebb tides enhanced seaward transport for species that develop offshore. Thus, nonselective tidal processes dominated larval transport for most species back and forth between the low-inflow estuary and open coastal waters, whereas in adjacent open coastal waters, larval behavior in the presence of wind-induced shear was more important in regulating migrations between adult and larval habitats along this upwelling coast.  相似文献   

<Superscript>10</Superscript>Be, <Superscript>18</Superscript>O and radiogenic isotopic constraints on the origin of adakitic signatures: a case study from Solander and Little Solander Islands,New Zealand     

Fiona?V.?FoleyEmail author  Simon?Turner  Tracy?Rushmer  John?T.?Caulfield  Nathan?R.?Daczko  Paul?Bierman  Matthew?Robertson  Craig?D.?Barrie  Adrian?J.?Boyce 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(3):1048

Subduction-related Quaternary volcanic rocks from Solander and Little Solander Islands, south of mainland New Zealand, are porphyritic trachyandesites and andesites (58.20–62.19 wt% SiO₂) with phenocrysts of amphibole, plagioclase and biotite. The Solander and Little Solander rocks are incompatible element enriched (e.g. Sr ~931–2,270 ppm, Ba ~619–798 ppm, Th ~8.7–21.4 ppm and La ~24.3–97.2 ppm) with MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic signatures. Isotopically similar quench-textured enclaves reflect mixing with intermediate (basaltic-andesite) magmas. The Solander rocks have geochemical affinities with adakites (e.g. high Sr/Y and low Y), whose origin is often attributed to partial melting of subducted oceanic crust. Solander sits on isotopically distinct continental crust, thus excluding partial melting of the lower crust in the genesis of the magmas. Furthermore, the incompatible element enrichments of the Solander rocks are inconsistent with partial melting of newly underplated mafic lower crust; reproduction of their major element compositions would require unrealistically high degrees of partial melting. A similar argument precludes partial melting of the subducting oceanic crust and the inability to match the observed trace element patterns in the presence of residual garnet or plagioclase. Alternatively, an enriched end member of depleted MORB mantle source is inferred from Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic compositions, trace element enrichments and εHf ? 0 CHUR in detrital zircons, sourced from the volcanics. ¹⁰Be and Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic systematics are inconsistent with significant sediment involvement in the source region. The trace element enrichments and MORB-like Sr and Nd isotopic characteristics of the Solander rocks require a strong fractionation mechanism to impart the high incompatible element concentrations and subduction-related (e.g. high LILE/HFSE) geochemical signatures of the Solander magmas. Trace element modelling shows that this can be achieved by very low degrees of melting of a peridotitic source enriched by the addition of a slab-derived melt. Subsequent open-system fractionation, involving a key role for mafic magma recharge, resulted in the evolved andesitic adakites.  相似文献   

A re-examination of petrogenesis and 40Ar/39Ar systematics in the Chain of Ponds K-feldspar: “diffusion domain” archetype versus polyphase hygrochronology     

Alex N. Chafe  Igor M. Villa  John M. Hanchar  Richard Wirth 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(5):1-17

K-feldspar (Kfs) from the Chain of Ponds Pluton (CPP) is the archetypal reference material, upon which thermochronological modeling of Ar diffusion in discrete “domains” was founded. We re-examine the CPP Kfs using cathodoluminescence and back-scattered electron imaging, transmission electron microscopy, and electron probe microanalysis. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar stepwise heating experiments on different sieve fractions, and on handpicked and unpicked aliquots, are compared. Our results reproduce the staircase-shaped age spectrum and the Arrhenius trajectory of the literature sample, confirming that samples collected from the same locality have an identical Ar isotope record. Even the most pristine-looking Kfs from the CPP contains successive generations of secondary, metasomatic/retrograde mineral replacements that post-date magmatic crystallization. These chemically and chronologically distinct phases are responsible for its staircase-shaped age spectra, which are modified by handpicking. While genuine within-grain diffusion gradients are not ruled out by these data, this study demonstrates that the most important control on staircase-shaped age spectra is the simultaneous presence of heterochemical, diachronous post-magmatic mineral growth. At least five distinct mineral species were identified in the Kfs separate, three of which can be traced to external fluids interacting with the CPP in a chemically open system. Sieve fractions have size-shifted Arrhenius trajectories, negating the existence of the smallest “diffusion domains.” Heterochemical phases also play an important role in producing nonlinear trajectories. In vacuo degassing rates recovered from Arrhenius plots are neither related to true Fick’s Law diffusion nor to the staircase shape of the age spectra. The CPP Kfs used to define the “diffusion domain” model demonstrates the predominance of metasomatic alteration by hydrothermal fluids and recrystallization in establishing the natural Ar distribution among different coexisting phases that gives rise to the staircase-shaped age spectrum. Microbeam imaging of textures is as essential for ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar hygrochronology as it is for U–Pb geochronology.  相似文献