Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gurdak JJ  McCray JE  Thyne G  Qi SL 《Ground water》2007,45(3):348-361

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability.  相似文献   

Effects of anthropogenic seawater acidification on acid-base balance in the sea urchin Psammechinus miliaris     

Miles H  Widdicombe S  Spicer JI  Hall-Spencer J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(1):89-96

The purple-tipped sea urchin, Psammechinus miliaris, was exposed to artificially acidified seawater treatments (pH(w) 6.16, 6.63 or 7.44) over a period of 8 days. Urchin mortality of 100% was observed at pH(w) 6.16 after 7 days and coincided with a pronounced hypercapnia in the coelomic fluid producing an irrecoverable acidosis. Coelomic fluid acid-base measures showed that an accumulation of CO(2) and a significant reduction in pH occurred in all treatments compared with controls. Bicarbonate buffering was employed in each case, reducing the resultant acidosis, but compensation was incomplete even under moderate environmental hypercapnia. Significant test dissolution was inferred from observable increases in the Mg(2+) concentration of the coelomic fluid under all pH treatments. We show that a chronic reduction of surface water pH to below 7.5 would be severely detrimental to the acid-base balance of this predominantly intertidal species; despite its ability to tolerate fluctuations in pCO(2) and pH in the rock pool environment. The absence of respiratory pigment (or any substantial protein in the coelomic fluid), a poor capacity for ionic regulation and dependency on a magnesium calcite test, make echinoids particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic acidification. Geological sequestration leaks may result in dramatic localised pH reductions, e.g. pH 5.8. P. miliaris is intolerant of pH 6.16 seawater and significant mortality is seen at pH 6.63.  相似文献   

Reconstruction of contaminant trends in a salt wedge estuary with sediment cores dated using a multiple proxy approach   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Cantwell MG  King JW  Burgess RM  Appleby PG 《Marine environmental research》2007,64(2):225-246

The Taunton River is a partially mixed tidal estuary in southeastern Massachusetts (USA) which has received significant contaminant inputs, yet little information exists on the history of discharge and the subsequent fate of these contaminants. Three sediment cores taken along a transect were analyzed, reconstructing the spatial and temporal trends of pollution in the estuary. A combination of radiometric dating, contaminant markers, and storm layers from major hurricanes were used to establish age models and sedimentation rates. Age estimates obtained from the different dating methods compared well, establishing an accurate history of contaminant release to the estuary. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were present in one core at depths corresponding to the early 1860s, earlier than previously established dates of introduction. Temporal and spatial trends of Cr, Cu, Hg and Pb indicated multiple sources of varying input to the river. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were present in each of the cores from the 1930s onward, with elevated levels still present in surficial sediments at several sites. A unique organic compound, Topanol, which was produced locally was used as a tracer to track contaminant transport in the river. Tracer data indicates that contaminants are still being transported and deposited to surficial sediments at high concentrations well after their discharge. This reconstruction demonstrates the utility of using multiple dating proxies where often the sole use of radiometric dating techniques is not an option and provides insights into the fate of contaminants discharged decades ago but continue to represent environmental risks.  相似文献   

Precipitation of heavy metals in produced water: influence on contaminant transport and toxicity   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Azetsu-Scott K  Yeats P  Wohlgeschaffen G  Dalziel J  Niven S  Lee K 《Marine environmental research》2007,63(2):146-167

Produced water undergoes changes in its physical chemistry including precipitation of heavy metals after being discharged and mixed with ambient seawater. Potential impacts of the precipitation of heavy metals on their transport and toxicity were studied using samples from offshore oil production sites on the Scotian Shelf off eastern Canada. Concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, manganese, nickel and zinc were measured in total, particulate and dissolved fractions together with Microtox tests for assessment of toxicity. Heavy metals in produced water were transformed from dissolved to particulate phase in a period of hours under oxygenated conditions, and aggregated to larger particles that settle rapidly (>100 m/day) over a few days. In addition, there was production of buoyant particles comprised of heavy metal precipitates sequestered onto oil droplets that were transported to the surface. The particulate fraction was generally more toxic than the dissolved fraction. This was evident at the mixing interface between produced water and seawater where elevated particulate and toxicity levels were observed. Laboratory studies suggest an increase in the toxicity of discharged produced water over time. Time-series experiments showed a sustained toxic response for more than a week following the oxidation of freshly discharged produced water that initially elicited little or no toxic response in the Microtox test. Chemical processes identified in this study, namely precipitation of heavy metals and consequent settling and rising fluxes of particles, will influence the toxicity, the fate and the transport of potential contaminants in the produced water. Therefore, these processes need to be considered in assessment of the environmental impact associated with offshore oil and gas operations.  相似文献   

Saturn eddy momentum fluxes and convection: First estimates from Cassini images     

Anthony D. Del Genio  John M. Barbara  Andrew P. Ingersoll  Ashwin R. Vasavada  Carolyn C. Porco 《Icarus》2007,189(2):479-492

We apply an automated cloud feature tracking algorithm to estimate eddy momentum fluxes in Saturn's southern hemisphere from Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem near-infrared continuum image sequences. Voyager Saturn manually tracked images had suggested no conversion of eddy to mean flow kinetic energy, but this was based on a small sample of <1000 wind vectors. The automated procedure we use for the Cassini data produces an order of magnitude more usable wind vectors with relatively unbiased sampling. Automated tracking is successful in and around the westward jet latitudes on Saturn but not in the vicinity of most eastward jets, where the linearity and non-discrete nature of cloud features produces ambiguous results. For the regions we are able to track, we find peak eddy fluxes and a clear positive correlation between eddy momentum fluxes and meridional shear of the mean zonal wind, implying that eddies supply momentum to eastward jets and remove momentum from westward jets at a rate . The behavior we observe is similar to that seen on Jupiter, though with smaller eddy-mean kinetic energy conversion rates per unit mass of atmosphere (). We also use the appearance and rapid evolution of small bright features at continuum wavelengths, in combination with evidence from weak methane band images where possible, to diagnose the occurrence of moist convective storms on Saturn. Areal expansion rates imply updraft speeds of over the convective anvil cloud area. As on Jupiter, convection preferentially occurs in cyclonic shear regions on Saturn, but unlike Jupiter, convection is also observed in eastward jet regions. With one possible exception, the large eddy fluxes seen in the cyclonic shear latitudes do not seem to be associated with convective events.  相似文献   

Molecular and isotopic partitioning of low-molecular-weight hydrocarbons during migration and gas hydrate precipitation in deposits of a high-flux seepage site     

Thomas Pape  André Bahr  Janet Rethemeyer  John D. Kessler  Heiko Sahling  Kai-Uwe Hinrichs  Stephan A. Klapp  William S. Reeburgh  Gerhard Bohrmann 《Chemical Geology》2010,269(3-4):350-363

Detailed knowledge of the extent of post-genetic modifications affecting shallow submarine hydrocarbons fueled from the deep subsurface is fundamental for evaluating source and reservoir properties. We investigated gases from a submarine high-flux seepage site in the anoxic Eastern Black Sea in order to elucidate molecular and isotopic alterations of low-molecular-weight hydrocarbons (LMWHC) associated with upward migration through the sediment and precipitation of shallow gas hydrates. For this, near-surface sediment pressure cores and free gas venting from the seafloor were collected using autoclave technology at the Batumi seep area at 845 m water depth within the gas hydrate stability zone.Vent gas, gas from pressure core degassing, and from hydrate dissociation were strongly dominated by methane (> 99.85 mol.% of ∑[C₁–C₄, CO₂]). Molecular ratios of LMWHC (C₁/[C₂ + C₃] > 1000) and stable isotopic compositions of methane (δ¹³C = ? 53.5‰ V-PDB; D/H around ? 175‰ SMOW) indicated predominant microbial methane formation. C₁/C₂₊ ratios and stable isotopic compositions of LMWHC distinguished three gas types prevailing in the seepage area. Vent gas discharged into bottom waters was depleted in methane by > 0.03 mol.% (∑[C₁–C₄, CO₂]) relative to the other gas types and the virtual lack of ¹⁴C–CH₄ indicated a negligible input of methane from degradation of fresh organic matter. Of all gas types analyzed, vent gas was least affected by molecular fractionation, thus, its origin from the deep subsurface rather than from decomposing hydrates in near-surface sediments is likely.As a result of the anaerobic oxidation of methane, LMWHC in pressure cores in top sediments included smaller methane fractions [0.03 mol.% ∑(C₁–C₄, CO₂)] than gas released from pressure cores of more deeply buried sediments, where the fraction of methane was maximal due to its preferential incorporation in hydrate lattices. No indications for stable carbon isotopic fractionations of methane during hydrate crystallization from vent gas were found. Enrichments of ¹⁴C–CH₄ (1.4 pMC) in short cores relative to lower abundances (max. 0.6 pMC) in gas from long cores and gas hydrates substantiates recent methanogenesis utilizing modern organic matter deposited in top sediments of this high-flux hydrocarbon seep area.  相似文献   

Solubility of manganotantalite, zircon and hafnon in highly fluxed peralkaline to peraluminous pegmatitic melts   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Marieke Van Lichtervelde  Francois Holtz  John M. Hanchar 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,160(1):17-32

The behavior of tantalum and zirconium in pegmatitic systems has been investigated through the determination of Ta and Zr solubilities at manganotantalite and zircon saturation from dissolution and crystallization experiments in hydrous, Li-, F-, P- and B-bearing pegmatitic melts. The pegmatitic melts are synthetic and enriched in flux elements: 0.7–1.3 wt% Li₂O, 2–5.5 wt% F, 2.8–4 wt% P₂O₅ and 0–2.8 wt% B₂O₃, and their aluminum saturation index ranges from peralkaline to peraluminous (ASI_Li = Al/[Na + K + Li] = 0.8 to 1.3) with various K/Na ratios. Dissolution and crystallization experiments were conducted at temperatures varying between 700 and 1,150°C, at 200 MPa and nearly water-saturated conditions. For dissolution experiments, pure synthetic, end member manganotantalite and zircon were used in order to avoid problems with slow solid-state kinetics, but additional experiments using natural manganotantalite and zircon of relatively pure composition (i.e., close to end member composition) displayed similar solubility results. Zircon and manganotantalite solubilities considerably increase from peraluminous to peralkaline compositions, and are more sensitive to changes in temperature or ASI of the melt than to flux content. A model relating the enthalpy of dissolution of manganotantalite to the ASI_Li of the melt is proposed: ∆H _diss (kJ/mol) = 304 × ASI_Li − 176 in the peralkaline field, and ∆H _diss (kJ/mol) = −111 × ASI_Li + 245 in the peraluminous field. The solubility data reveal a small but detectable competitivity between Zr and Ta in the melt, i.e., lower amounts of Zr are incorporated in a Ta-bearing melt compared to a Ta-free melt under the same conditions. A similar behavior is observed for Hf and Ta. The competitivity between Zr (or Hf) and Ta increases from peraluminous to peralkaline compositions, and suggests that Ta is preferentially bonded to non-bridging oxygens (NBOs) with Al as first-neighbors, whereas Zr is preferentially bonded to NBOs formed by excess alkalies. As a consequence Zr/Ta ratios, when buffered by zircon and manganotantalite simultaneously, are higher in peralkaline melts than in peraluminous melts.  相似文献   

Growth of bultfonteinite and hydrogarnet in metasomatized basalt xenoliths in the B/K9 kimberlite, Damtshaa, Botswana: insights into hydrothermal metamorphism in kimberlite pipes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ben Buse  John C. Schumacher  R. Stephen J. Sparks  Matthew Field 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,160(4):533-550

Metamorphic assemblages within Karoo basalt xenoliths, found within volcaniclastic kimberlite of the B/K9 pipe, Damtshaa, Botswana, constrain conditions of kimberlite alteration. Bultfonteinite and chlorite partially replace the original augite-plagioclase assemblage, driven by the serpentinisation of the kimberlite creating strong chemical potential gradients for Si and Mg. Hydrogarnet and serpentine replace these earlier metamorphic assemblages as the deposits cool. The bultfonteinite (ideally Ca₂SiO₂[OH,F]₄) and hydrogarnet assemblages require a water-rich fluid containing F⁻, and imply hydrothermal alteration dominated by external fluids rather than autometamorphism from deuteric fluids. Bultfonteinite and hydrogarnet are estimated to form at temperatures of ca. 350–250°C, which are similar to those for serpentinisation. Alteration within the B/K9 kimberlite predominantly occurs between 250 and 400°C. We attribute these conditions to increased efficiency of mass transfer and chemical reactions below the critical point of water and a consequence of volume-increasing serpentinisation and metasomatic reactions that take place over this temperature range. A comparison of the B/K9 kimberlite with kimberlites from Venetia, South Africa suggests that the composition and mineralogy of included xenoliths affects the alteration assemblages within kimberlite deposits.  相似文献   

Melt extraction and melt refertilization in mantle peridotite of the Coast Range ophiolite: an LA–ICP–MS study     

Marlon M. Jean  John W. Shervais  Sung-Hi Choi  Samuel B. Mukasa 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2010,159(1):113-136

The middle Jurassic Coast Range Ophiolite (CRO) is one of the most important tectonic elements in western California, cropping out as tectonically dismembered elements that extend 700 km from south to north. The volcanic and plutonic sections are commonly interpreted to represent a supra-subduction zone (SSZ) ophiolite, but models specifying a mid-ocean ridge origin have also been proposed. These contrasting interpretations have distinctly different implications for the tectonic evolution of the western Cordillera in the Jurassic. If an SSZ origin is confirmed, we can use the underlying mantle peridotites to elucidate melt processes in the mantle wedge above the subduction zone. This study uses laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma–mass spectrometry (LA–ICP–MS) to study pyroxenes in peridotites from four mantle sections in the CRO. Trace element signatures of these pyroxenes record magmatic processes characteristic of both mid-ocean ridge and supra-subduction zone settings. Group A clinopyroxene display enriched REE concentrations [e.g., Gd (0.938–1.663 ppm), Dy (1.79–3.24 ppm), Yb (1.216–2.047 ppm), and Lu (0.168–0.290 ppm)], compared to Group B and C clinopyroxenes [e.g., Gd (0.048–0.055 ppm), Dy (0.114–0.225 ppm), Yb (0.128–0.340 ppm), and Lu (0.022–0.05 ppm)]. These patterns are also evident in orthopyroxene. The differences between these geochemical signatures could be a result of a heterogeneous upper mantle or different degrees of partial melting of the upper mantle. It will be shown that CRO peridotites were generated through fractional melting. The shapes of REE patterns are consistent with variable degrees of melting initiated within the garnet stability field. Models call for 3% dry partial melting of MORB-source asthenosphere in the garnet lherzolite field for abyssal peridotites and 15–20% further partial melting in the spinel lherzolite field, possibly by hydrous melting for SSZ peridotites. These geochemical variations and occurrence of both styles of melting regimes within close spatial and temporal association suggest that certain segments of the CRO may represent oceanic lithosphere, attached to a large-offset transform fault and that east-dipping, proto-Franciscan subduction may have been initiated along this transform.  相似文献   

The pattern of Ni and Co abundances in lunar olivines     

John Longhi  Sedelia R. Durand  David Walker 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(2):784-3045

Near liquidus experiments on peridotite and other olivine normative compositions from 1.7 to 6 GPa confirm the applicability of exchange-based empirical models of Ni and Co partitioning between olivine and silicate liquids with compositions close to the liquidus of peridotite. Given that most estimates of lunar bulk composition are peridotitic, the partitioning models thus lend themselves to calculation of olivine compositions produced during the early stages of magma ocean crystallization. Calculation of olivine compositions produced by fractional crystallization of a model lunar magma ocean, initially 700 km deep, reveals a prominent maximum in Ni concentration versus fraction crystallized or Mg’ (molar MgO/(MgO + FeO)), but a pattern of monotonically increasing Co concentration. These patterns qualitatively match the puzzling patterns of Ni and Co concentrations observed in lunar rocks in which forsteritic olivines in magnesian suite cumulates have lower Ni and Co abundances than do less magnesian olivines from low-Ti mare basalts, and olivines from the ferroan anorthosite suite (FAS) have lower Ni, but similar Co to mare basalt olivines.The Ni and Co abundances in olivines from the magnesian suite cumulates can be reconciled in terms of fractional crystallization of a deep magma ocean which initially produces a basal dunite comprised of the hottest and most magnesian olivine overlain by an olivine-orthopyroxene (harzburgite) layer that is in turn overlain by an upper zone of plagioclase-bearing cumulates. The ultramafic portion of the cumulate pile overturns sending the denser harzburgite layer, which later becomes a portion of the green glass source region, to the bottom of the cumulate pile with Ni- and Co-rich olivine. Meanwhile, the less dense, but hottest, most magnesian olivines with much lower Ni and Co abundances are transported upward to the base of the plagioclase-bearing cumulates where subsequent heat transfer leads to melting of mixtures of primary dunite, norite, and gabbronorite with KREEP (a K-REE-P enriched component widely believed to be derived from the very latest stage magma ocean liquid). These hybrid melts have Al₂O₃, Ni, and Co abundances and Mg’ appropriate for parent magmas of the magnesian suite. Ni and Co abundances in the FAS are consistent with either direct crystallization from the magma ocean or crystallization of melts of primary dunite-norite mixtures without KREEP.  相似文献