Variable accretion and emission from the stellar winds in the Galactic Centre     

Jorge Cuadra  Sergei Nayakshin  Fabrice Martins 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(2):458-466

We present numerical simulations of stellar wind dynamics in the central parsec of the Galactic Centre, studying in particular the accretion of gas on to Sgr A*, the supermassive black hole. Unlike our previous work, here we use state-of-the-art observational data on orbits and wind properties of individual wind-producing stars. Since wind velocities were revised upwards and non-zero eccentricities were considered, our new simulations show fewer clumps of cold gas and no conspicuous disc-like structure. The accretion rate is dominated by a few close 'slow-wind stars' ( v _w≤ 750 km s⁻¹), and is consistent with the Bondi estimate, but variable on time-scales of tens to hundreds of years. This variability is due to the stochastic infall of cold clumps of gas, as in earlier simulations, and to the eccentric orbits of stars. The present models fail to explain the high luminosity of Sgr A* a few hundred years ago implied by Integral observations, but we argue that the accretion of a cold clump with a small impact parameter could have caused it. Finally, we show the possibility of constraining the total mass-loss rate of the 'slow-wind stars' using near infrared observations of gas in the central few arcseconds.  相似文献   

Evaluation of approximate methods to estimate residual drift demands in steel framed buildings          下载免费PDF全文

Jorge Ruiz‐García  Carlos Chora 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(15):2837-2854

This paper presents the evaluation of two approximate methods recently proposed in the literature to estimate residual (permanent) drift demands at the end of earthquake excitation for seismic assessment of buildings. Both methods require an estimate of the peak (maximum) interstory drift demand and the corresponding drift demand at significant yielding of the building. Additionally, an approximate method is proposed as part of this study. The introduced method follows a coefficient‐based approach similar to the Coefficient Method included in several US documents. For evaluating the approximate methods, five moment‐resisting steel framed buildings having different number of stories were analyzed under four sets of earthquake ground motions. Quantification of the accuracy of the approximate methods to estimate residual drift demands with respect to results from nonlinear time‐history analyses was performed through error measures computed for each building and each set of earthquake ground motions. Results show that the mean standard error tends to increase as the seismic hazard level increases. Between the two methods, the method introduced by Erochko et al. seems more effective in predicting residual drift demands than that proposed in the FEMA P‐58 recommendations in the USA. It is demonstrated that including additional sources of stiffness and strength in the modeling approach constrains the amplitude of residual drift demands. As a beneficial consequence, the accuracy of both approximate methods in predicting residual drift demands is significantly improved (i.e., mean standard error decreases). The introduced method also provides similar accuracy than the approximate methods available in the literature. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Equatorial Atlantic Ocean dynamics in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model simulation     

Emanuel Giarolla  Leo San Pedro Siqueira  Marcus Jorge Bottino  Marta Malagutti  Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano  Paulo Nobre 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(6):831-843

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Tidal dynamics of the Terminos Lagoon,Mexico: observations and 3D numerical modelling     

Adolfo Contreras Ruiz Esparza  Pascal Douillet  Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(9):1349-1371

The tidal circulation patterns in the Terminos Lagoon were studied based on the analysis of 1 year of measurements and numerical simulations using a baroclinic 3D hydrodynamic model, the MARS3D. A gauging network was installed consisting of six self-recording pressure–temperature sensors, a tide gauge station and two current profilers, with pressure and temperature sensors moored in the main lagoon inlets. Model simulations were validated against current and sea level observations and were used to analyse the circulation patterns caused by the tidal forcing. The numerical model was forced with eight harmonic components, four diurnal (K ₁, O ₁, P ₁, Q ₁) and four semi-diurnal (M ₂, S ₂, N ₂, K ₂), extracted from the TPX0.7 database. The tidal patterns in the study area vary from mixed, mainly diurnal in the two main inlets of the lagoon, to diurnal in its interior. The tidal residual circulation inside the lagoon is dominated by a cyclonic gyre. The results indicate a net flux from the southwest Ciudad del Carmen inlet (CdC) towards the northeast Puerto Real inlet (PtR) along the southern side of the lagoon and the opposite in the northern side. The results indicate two areas of strong currents in the vicinity of the inlets and weak currents inside the lagoon. The area of strong currents in the vicinity of the CdC inlet is larger than that observed in the PtR inlet. Nevertheless, the current analysis indicates that the highest current speeds, which can reach a magnitude of 1.9 m s^?1, occurred in PtR. A further analysis of the tide distortion in the inlets revealed that both passages are ebb dominated.  相似文献   

A method for finding the optimal predictor indices for local wave climate conditions     

Paula Camus  Fernando J. Méndez  Inigo J. Losada  Melisa Menéndez  Antonio Espejo  Jorge Pérez  Ana Rueda  Yanira Guanche 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(7):1025-1038

In this study, a method to obtain local wave predictor indices that take into account the wave generation process is described and applied to several locations. The method is based on a statistical model that relates significant wave height with an atmospheric predictor, defined by sea level pressure fields. The predictor is composed of a local and a regional part, representing the sea and the swell wave components, respectively. The spatial domain of the predictor is determined using the Evaluation of Source and Travel-time of wave Energy reaching a Local Area (ESTELA) method. The regional component of the predictor includes the recent historical atmospheric conditions responsible for the swell wave component at the target point. The regional predictor component has a historical temporal coverage (n-days) different to the local predictor component (daily coverage). Principal component analysis is applied to the daily predictor in order to detect the dominant variability patterns and their temporal coefficients. Multivariate regression model, fitted at daily scale for different n-days of the regional predictor, determines the optimum historical coverage. The monthly wave predictor indices are selected applying a regression model using the monthly values of the principal components of the daily predictor, with the optimum temporal coverage for the regional predictor. The daily predictor can be used in wave climate projections, while the monthly predictor can help to understand wave climate variability or long-term coastal morphodynamic anomalies.  相似文献   

Inventory and geometrical changes in small glaciers covering three Northern Patagonian summits using remote sensing and GIS techniques     

Alfonso Fernández  José Araos  Jorge Marín 《山地科学学报》2010,7(1):26-35

In the last few decades, a large quantity of research has been performed to elucidate the current behavior of glaciers in southern Chile, especially with respect to the volumetric changes in the outlets of the Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields (NPI and SPI, respectively). Calculations have shown a generalized thinning and withdrawal, which greatly contributes to the increase in sea level attributed to the ice melt from non-polar glaciers. However, these icefields are surrounded by many small icecaps, which have yet to be studied in detail. A precise estimation of the volume of ice located in these mountain chains could provide new information with respect to this area's exact contribution to the increase in sea level. Thus, this study presents an inventory of relatively small Northern Patagonian glaciers in the surrounding of the three summits: Mount Queulat, and the Macá and Hudson volcanoes. The study used remote sensing techniques in a GIS environment to determine the margins, surface areas, thickness changes and hypsometry for the glaciated zones. Landsat images from different dates were analyzed using standard band ratio and screen delineation techniques. Additionally, digital elevation models from different dates were compared using map algebra, calculating thickness changes. Based on the results, we propose that there are important volumetric changes in the glaciers studied, which could be explained by precipitation trends in a general context, and an influence of the glaciers' sizes in some local response. Therefore, we suggest the exact contribution of the Patagonia to the increase in sea level corresponds to a regional pattern rather than just the behavior of a single ice field.  相似文献   

Comparison and Computational Performance of Tsunami-HySEA and MOST Models for LANTEX 2013 Scenario: Impact Assessment on Puerto Rico Coasts     

Jorge Macías  Aurelio Mercado  José Manuel González-Vida  Sergio Ortega  Manuel Jesús Castro 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(12):3973-3997

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Eruptive parameters and dynamics of the April 2015 sub-Plinian eruptions of Calbuco volcano (southern Chile)     

Angelo Castruccio  Jorge Clavero  Andrea Segura  Pablo Samaniego  Olivier Roche  Jean-Luc Le Pennec  Bárbara Droguett 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2016,78(9):62

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Assessing aquatic macrophyte community change through the integration of palaeolimnological and historical data at Loch Leven,Scotland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jorge Salgado  Carl Sayer  Laurence Carvalho  Thomas Davidson  Iain Gunn 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,43(1):191-204

Submerged macrophytes have a critical role in lake ecosystems affecting nutrient cycling, sediment stability, and community composition across multiple trophic levels. Consequently temporal changes in the composition of submerged plant populations can have profound ecological implications and key significance from the perspective of lake conservation. By focusing on macro-remains of aquatic macrophytes and extensive historical plant records spanning the last approximately 180 years, this study seeks to evaluate a combined historical-palaeolimnological approach for establishing pre-disturbance macrophytes communities in Loch Leven, Kinross, Scotland and to provide new information regarding temporal trends in its macrophyte vegetation as well as potential drivers of change. Some 81% of the species historically recorded for the core site (east side of St. Serf’s Island) were found as macro-remains. Potamogeton taxa were underrepresented, whereas remains of Elatine hexandra, a small species never recorded historically were found. The core sequence showed good agreement with known floristic changes including an early (pre- ca. 1850) loss of Isoetes lacustris and Lobelia dortmanna and a more recent (post-1910) shift to dominance by Potamogeton and Chara taxa associated with eutrophic conditions. A clear pattern in the relationship between macrofossil principal component analysis (PCA) and loss on ignition suggested a key control of sediment conditions on macrophyte community structure. In particular the major macrophyte community change of the mid-nineteenth century was concurrent with a substantial increase in organic matter, likely linked to a historic lake lowering (early 1830s) which would have beached the former gravel-sand shoreline leading to a much siltier lake littoral. Although recent monitoring data show signs of ecological recovery our study illustrates that Loch Leven remains a long way from its reference state as a lake with characteristic soft-water macrophytes. To achieve a full recovery, sediment properties would need to change in addition to nutrient reduction. Consequently restoration strategies will need to compromise between the desirability of achieving the pre-disturbance state and what is feasible and practicable. Our study shows the clear potential role of a combined palaeolimnological-historical approach for informing lake management decisions.  相似文献   

Phytoplankton community variations in tropical coastal area affected where submarine groundwater occurs     

Luis Troccoli-Ghinaglia  Jorge A. Herrera-Silveira  Francisco A. Comín  José Rafael Díaz-Ramos 《Continental Shelf Research》2010

The influence of subterranean water discharge on phytoplankton was studied at two localities (Progreso and Dzilam) on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Hydrographic and phytoplankton samples were taken monthly between September 1998 and August 1999. High concentration of silicate (>65 μmol L⁻¹) and nitrate (>80 μmol L⁻¹) and low salinity showed the influence of submerged groundwater discharge (SGD) in the area. In Dzilam, hydrological conditions shows low salinity and high concentration of nitrate and silicate favored from the SGD. Meanwhile, high concentrations of ammonium, nitrite, and phosphate at Progreso (>150 000 inhabitants) suggest mixing of SGD and domestic waste waters. Thick-valve pennate diatoms dominated at Dzilam while dinoflagellates dominated in Progreso. Hydrological differences in both study zones suggest that local forcings, and interaction between coastal water masses and SGD plays an important role in hydrological conditions and primary productivity in the coastal zone of Yucatan. The anthropogenic modified SGD in Progreso may affect the nutrient regime and phytoplankton community structure, and may be used as indicator of eutrophication.  相似文献