Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area     

José Quereda Sala  Jorge Olcina Cantos  Enrique Montón Chiva 《Climatic change》1996,32(2):215-228

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.  相似文献   

Stable isotope study of antimony deposits in the Muratdagi region,western Turkey     

A. Gokçe  B. Spiro 《Mineralium Deposita》1994,29(4):361-365

The Muratdagi region is rich in antimony deposits having the following common characteristics: post Miocene age, location on the down-thrown blocks next to normal faults, in the vicinity of active or fossil thermal springs, and in contact with carbonate rocks. The isotopic composition of — 7. SMOW of the mineralizing fluid calculated from the measured ° ¹⁸O of quartz and the fluid inclusion microthermometry, is indicative of meteoric water origin. The ° ¹³C of the inclusion CO₂ of — 19.1 to — 25.4 PDB is indicative of interaction with organic material-graphite. The ° ³⁴S of stibnite — 3.6 to — 0.7 is, in view of the mineral assemblage, indicative of magmatic origin of the sulphur. A tightly confined set of structural, lithological, hydrological and geochemical features define a sequence of geochemical processes; formation of acid and reducing fluid, leaching and transport of antimony complexes and precipitation of stibnite within defined lithological units. The set of processes seems to have taken place within a space of 5000 m lateral and 1000 m vertical extension.  相似文献   

About the specification of erosion flux for soft stratified cohesive sediments     

Georges Chapalain  Y. Peter Sheng  André T. Temperville 《Mathematical Geology》1994,26(6):651-676

The present paper deals with the specification of bed erosion flux that accounts for the effects of sediment-induced stratification in the water column. Owing to difficulties in measuring the bed shear stress _b and the erosive shear strength _s, we suggest a series of methods that combine laboratory and numerical experiments. A simplified turbulent transport model that includes these effects helps to quantify _b and _s. Focusing on soft stratified beds, the present study considers erosion rate formulas of the form =_f exp {[T_b-T_s]} where is a model constant (=1 for Gularte's (1978) formula and =1/2 for Parchure's (1984) formula). First, the bed erosive strength profile _s(Z) is adjusted by forcing the turbulent transport model with measured erosion rates. Second, three procedures are suggested to determine the erosion rate formula coefficients _f and : a global procedure and two different layer-by-layer procedures. Each procedure is applied to an erosion experiment conducted in a rotating annular flume by Villaret and Paulic (1986). The use of the layer-by-layer procedure based on a least squares fitting technique provides a closer fit than the global procedure. The present study points out the complementarity of experimental and numerical approaches and also suggests possible improvements in laboratory test procedures.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and origin of the Proterozoic ultrapotassic rocks of the Churchill Province,Canada     

Dr. T. D. Peterson  Dr. S. Esperança  Dr. A. N. LeCheminant 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,51(2-4):251-276

Summary Early Proterozoic ultrapotassic dikes, lava flows, and pyroclastic rocks of the Christopher Island Formation (CIF) erupted throughout an area 600 × 300 km within the Churchill Province of the Canadian Shield at 1.84 Ga. The rocks range from mafic lamprophyres (mg # 60; SiO₂ 47–54%, mean K₂O/Na₂O > 4) with phenocrysts of phlogopite + diopside + apatite ± olivine ± magnetite, to phenocryst-poor felsic rocks and sanidine porphyries (SiO₂55–69%). All samples have high incompatible element contents and display large depletions of high field strength elements relative to K, Rb, Sr, Ba, and Th. The CIF has geochemical and petrographic characteristics of both minettes and lamproites, but overall most closely resembles young Mediterranean lamproites. Felsic rocks of the CIF were produced by crystal fractionation and crustal contamination of mafic ultrapotassic magma, and include both high-silica lamproites strongly enriched in Zr, U, and Th, and weakly potassic to sodic rocks of trachytic composition. Flows and feeder dikes have relatively homogeneous _{Nd, 1840 Ma} (–6 to –11) but highly variable ES., 1840 Ma (–40 to + 100); samples classified as lamproites have higher average _Sr. Dike samples have highly variable present-day Pb isotope compositions, ranging from moderately to strongly nonradiogenic. Geochemical and isotopic data are consistent with contributions from depleted Archean lithospheric mantle, and OIB-type convecting mantle, both metasomatized by subduction-related processes during the Early Proterozoic. The lithospheric mantle probably contained Archean enriched domains as well. Proterozoic enrichment may have accompanied shallow underplating of subducted oceanic lithosphere beneath the Churchill Province during amalgamation of the Laurentian supercontinent. There are strong analogies in isotopic composition, and interpreted source region history, between the CIF and lamproites and minettes of the Wyoming Province and western Greenland, which suggest the existence of a Laurentian ultrapotassic superprovince.

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Geochemie und Entstehung der Proterozoischen ultrapotassischen Gesteine der Churchill Provinz, Kanada

Zusammenfassung Altproterozoische, ultrapotassische Gänge, Lavaströme und pyroklastische Gesteine der Christopher Island Formation (CIF), eruptierten in einem Gebiet von 600 × 300 km in der Churchill Provinz des Kanadischen Schildes vor 1.84 Ga. Die Zusammensetzung dieser Gesteine variiert von mafischen Lamprophyren (mg > 60; SiO₂ = 47–54%, durchschnittliches K₂O/Na₂O > 4) mit Phänokristallent von Phlogopit + Diopsid + Apatit + Olivin + Magnetit, bis zu phänokristallarmen felsischen Gesteinen und Sanidinporphyren (SiO₂ = 55–69%). Alle Proben zeigen hohe Gehalte an inkompatiblen Elementen und zeigen beträchtliche Verarmung an high field strength Elementen relativ zu K, Rb, Sr, Ba und Th. Die CIF hat geochemische und petrographische Eigenschaften sowohl von Minetten wie von Lamproiten, aber im allgemeinen ähnelt sie am stärksten jungen mediterranen Lamproiten. Felsische Gesteine der CIF wurden durch Fraktionierung und Krustenkontamination aus mafischen ultrapotassischen Magmen gebildet. Letztere umfassen sowohl siliziumreiche Lamproite, die deutlich an Zr, U und Th angereichert sind und schwach potassische bis sodische Gesteine von trachytischer Zusammensetzung. Lavenergüsse und zufuhrgänge zeigent ein relativ homogenes _{Nd, 1840 Ma} (–6 bis –11) aber ein sehr variables _{Sr, 1840 Ma} (-40 bis + 100); Proben die als Lamproite klassifiziert wurden, zeigent höhere durchschnittliche _Sr-Werte. Proben von Gängen haben sehr variable Bleiisotopen-Zusammensetzungen, die von mäßig bis stark nichtradiogen variieren. Geochemische und Isotopendaten weisen auf Beiträge aus verarmtem archaischen lithosphärischen Mantel und aus konvektierendem OIB-Typ Mantel hin, die beide während des Alproterozoikums durch Subduktions-Vorgänge metasomatisiert wurden. Der lithosphärische Mantel enthielt wahrscheinlich auch angereicherte archaische Domänen. Proterozoische Anreicherungsvorgänge dürften seichtes Underplating subduzierter ozeanischer Lithosphäre unter der Churchill Provinz während der Amalgamation des laurentischen Superkontinentes begleitet haben. Es gibt starke Analogien in der Isotopenzusammensetzung und in der interpretierten Geschichte der Ursprungsregion, zwischen den CIF und Lamproiten und Minetten der Wyoming Provinz, und des westlichen Grönland. Diese weisen auf die Existenz einer laurentischen ultrapotassischen Superprovinz hin.

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With 7 Figures  相似文献   

Laboratory study of the rates and products of the phototransformations of naphthalene adsorbed on samples of titanium dioxide,ferric oxide,muscovite, and fly ash     

Chantal Guillard  Hervé Delprat  Can Hoang-van  Pierre Pichat 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1993,16(1):47-59

The photodegradation of naphthalene (NPH), chosen as a model of polynuclear aromatic pollutants, has been studied in the presence of a layer of four water-insoluble inorganic solids which can be found in the troposphere (TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, muscovite, and a fly ash sample). Direct photolysis of NPH is negligible at >340 nm. Dark adsorption of NPH on TiO₂ (mainly anatase, nonporous, 50 m² g^–1) at 293 K corresponds to a surface coverage ofca. 50% at equilibrium. Under these conditions (saturated surface), the stationary-state photocatalytic degradation reaches 0.4 molecule nm^–2 h^–1 (>340 nm, radiant fluxca. 22 mW cm^–2). Dioxygen is required and its partial pressure in air is such that the degradation is zero order in O₂. Water vapor markedly increases the rate. The other particulates have also an effect, less important than that of TiO₂, however quite noticeable with respect to surface area unit for the fly ash sample which contains 3.2% Fe₂O₃. Apart from 1,4-naphthoquinone, which is the main intermediate product in all cases, 2-naphthol, phthalide, phthaldialdehyde, phthalic acid, acetophenone, benzaldehyde, benzoic acid are also formed on dry TiO₂. Depending on their volatility, these compounds are transferred to the gas phase or remain principally adsorbed on the solid particles where they are further transformed. For instance, phthalic acid (or anhydride) and benzoic acid are generated from 1,4-naphthoquinone. Degradation mechanisms are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

Molecular and bulk isotopic analyses of organic matter in marls of the Mulhouse Basin (Tertiary, Alsace, France)     

Hollander DJ  Sinninghe Damste JS  Hayes JM  de Leeuw JW  Huc AY 《Organic Geochemistry》1993,20(8):1253-1263

Contents of 13C in kerogens and carbonates in 21 samples from a core of the MAX borehole, Mulhouse Evaporite Basin, range from -27.3 to -23.5 and -3.7 to -1.8% vs PDB, respectively. Organic nitrogen in the same samples is enriched in 15N relative to atmospheric N2 by 12.2-15.7%. Hydrogen indices and delta values for kerogens vary systematically with facies, averaging 493 mg HC/g Corg and -25.7% in the most saline facies (dominated by inputs from aquatic sources) and 267 mg HC/g Corg and -23.7% in the least saline facies (50/50 aquatic/terrigenous). Values of delta were measured for individual aliphatic hydrocarbons from three samples representing three different organic facies. For all samples, terrigenous inputs were unusually rich in 13C, the estimated delta value for bulk terrigenous debris, apparently derived partly from CAM plants, being -22.5%. In the most saline facies, isotopic evidence indicates the mixing of 13C-depleted products of photosynthetic bacteria with 13C-enriched products of halotolerant eukaryotic algae. At lower salinities, a change in the producer community is marked by a decrease in the 13C content of algal lipids. The content of 13C in algal lipids increases in the least saline facies, due either to succession of different organisms or to decreased concentrations of dissolved CO2.  相似文献   

Corona textures in Proterozoic olivine melanorites of the Equeefa Suite,Natal Metamorphic Province,South Africa     

Dr. G. H. Grantham  Dr. R. J. Thomas  Dr. B. M. Eglington  Dr. D. de Bruin  Dr. A. Atanasov  Dr. M. J. Evans 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1993,49(1-2):91-102

Summary Olivine-plagioclase and phlogopite-plagioclase coronas have been identified from olivine melanorites of the Mid- to Late Proterozoic Equeefa Suite in southern Natal, South Africa. Olivine, in contact with plagioclase, is mantled by a shell of clear orthopyroxene, in turn rimmed by pale green (pargasitic) clinoamphibole. Locally a third rim, composed of a fine pargasite-spinel symplectite is developed adjacent to the plagioclase. The second corona reaction has produced greenish-brown pargasite at phlogopite-plagioclase interfaces. A third, less obvious reaction, between olivine and phlogopite is also noted. Analytical data of all the mineral phases present, along with the coronas, are given. Two-pyroxene thermometry yields magmatic core temperatures ( 1120°C), with rim compositions indicating equilibration at 850°C. Consistent with this, the modelled olivine-plagioclase reaction occurs between 830–1050°C with a_waterbetween 0.1 and 1.0 at 7 kbar. The three reactions took place during a prolonged history of cooling and partial hydration of the magmatic olivine melanorites from over 1000°C down to 600°C. The P-T conditions indicated by the reactions suggest this cooling process was essentially isobaric, indicating that the area was not subjected to rapid uplift or burial throughout this entire period.

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Korona-Texturen in proterozoischen Olivin-Melanoriten der Equeefa Suite, Natal Metamorphic Province, Südafrika

Zusammenfassung Aus Olivin-Melanoriten der mittel- bis spätproterozoischen Equeefa Suite im südlichen Natal, Südafrika, wurden Olivin-Plagioklas und Phlogopit-Plagioklas-Koronartexturen beobachtet. Olivin, der mit Plagioklas im Kontakt steht, wird von einem klaren Saum vom Orthopyroxen ummantelt, der seinerseits von blaßgrünem (pargasitischem) Klinoamphibol umsäumt wird. Stellenweise ist ein dritter Saum, bestehend aus feinkörnigem symplektitischem Pargasit-Spinell im Kontakt mit Plagioklas ausgebildet. Die zweite koronabildende Reaktion resultiert in Bildung eines grünbraunen Pargasites an Phlogopit-Plagioklas Kornkontakten. Eine dritte, weniger auffällige Reaktion zwischen Olivin und Phlogopit wurde ebenfalls beobachtet. Zwei-Pyroxen-Thermometrie ergab magmatische Temperaturen der Kernbereiche ( 1120°C) und belegt eine Gleichgewichtseinstellung in den Randzonen bei ca. 850°C. Olivin-Plagioklas-Modellreaktionen liegen ebenfalls in einem Temperaturbereich von 830–1050°C bei Wasseraktivitäten von 0.1 bis 1.0 und einem Druck von 7 kbar. Die drei Reaktionen liefen im Zuge einer länger andauernden Abkühlung unter teilweiser Hydratisierung der magmatischen Melanorite in einem Temperaturbereich von 1000°C bis ca. 600°C ab. Die aus den Reaktionen ableitbaren P-T-Bedingungen sprechen für eine im wesentlichen isobare Abkhlungsgeschichte und zeigen, daß dieses Gebiet wáhrend dieser gesamten Periode keiner raschen Hebung bzw. keiner Versenkung unterworfen worden ist.

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On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

The role of bathymetry and directional wave conditions on observed crescentic bar dynamics     

Rinse L. de Swart  Francesca Ribas  Gonzalo Simarro  Jorge Guillén  Daniel Calvete 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3252-3270

Nearshore sandbars are important features in the surf zone of many beaches because they strongly influence the mean circulation and evolving morphology. Due to variations in wave conditions, sandbars can experience cross-shore migration and vary in shape from alongshore uniform (shore-parallel) to alongshore rhythmic (crescentic). Sandbar dynamics have been studied extensively, but existing observational studies usually do not quantify the processes leading to crescentic bar formation and straightening. This study analyses the dynamics of crescentic bar events at the fetch-limited beach of Castelldefels (northwestern Mediterranean Sea, Spain) using 7.5 years of hourly time-exposure video images and detailed wave conditions. The results show that, despite the generally calm wave conditions, the sandbars were very dynamic in the cross-shore and longshore directions. They often migrated rapidly offshore during storms (up to 70 m in one day) and more slowly onshore during post-storm conditions. Crescentic bars were often present at the study site (48% of the time), but only when the sandbar was at least 10 m from the shoreline. They displayed a large variability in wavelengths (100–700 m), alongshore migration speeds (0–50 m/day) and cross-shore amplitudes (5–20 m). Wavelengths increased for larger bar–shoreline distances and the alongshore migration speeds were strongly correlated with the alongshore component of the radiation stresses. Crescentic patterns typically developed during low–medium energetic waves with limited obliquity ( $\theta \lesssim 20$° at 10 m depth), while bar straightening occurred during medium–high energetic waves with strong oblique angles of incidence ( $\theta \gtrsim 15$°). Overall, this study provides further proof for the important role of wave direction in crescentic bar dynamics and highlights the strong dependence of crescentic bar development on the initial bathymetric configuration.  相似文献