Preparing for climate change in Washington State     

Lara C. Whitely Binder  Jennifer Krencicki Barcelos  Derek B. Booth  Meriel Darzen  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Richard Fenske  Thomas F. Graham  Alan F. Hamlet  John Hodges-Howell  J. Elizabeth Jackson  Catherine Karr  Patrick W. Keys  Jeremy S. Littell  Nathan Mantua  Jennifer Marlow  Don McKenzie  Michael Robinson-Dorn  Eric A. Rosenberg  Claudio O. Stöckle  Julie A. Vano 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):351-376

Climate change is expected to bring potentially significant changes to Washington State’s natural, institutional, cultural, and economic landscape. Addressing climate change impacts will require a sustained commitment to integrating climate information into the day-to-day governance and management of infrastructure, programs, and services that may be affected by climate change. This paper discusses fundamental concepts for planning for climate change and identifies options for adapting to the climate impacts evaluated in the Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. Additionally, the paper highlights potential avenues for increasing flexibility in the policies and regulations used to govern human and natural systems in Washington.  相似文献   

Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Julie Leloup  Matthieu Lengaigne  Jean-Philippe Boulanger 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(2-3):277-291

In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.  相似文献   

A community-supported weather and soil moisture monitoring database of the Roaring Fork catchment of the Colorado River Headwaters     

Elise C. Osenga  Julie A. Vano  James C. Arnott 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14081

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Energy and stability in the Full Two Body Problem   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Julie Bellerose  Daniel J. Scheeres 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,100(1):63-91

The conditions for relative equilibria and their stability in the Full Two Body Problem are derived for an ellipsoid–sphere system. Under constant angular momentum it is found that at most two solutions exist for the long-axis solutions with the closer solution being unstable while the other one is stable. As the non-equilibrium problem is more common in nature, we look at periodic orbits in the F2BP close to the relative equilibrium conditions. Families of periodic orbits can be computed where the minimum energy state of one family is the relative equilibrium state. We give results on the relative equilibria, periodic orbits and dynamics that may allow transition from the unstable configuration to a stable one via energy dissipation.   相似文献   

Integrating field and laboratory approaches for ripple development in mixed sand–clay–EPS     

Jaco H. Baas  Megan L. Baker  Jonathan Malarkey  Sarah J. Bass  Andrew J. Manning  Julie A. Hope  Jeffrey Peakall  Ian D. Lichtman  Leiping Ye  Alan G. Davies  Daniel R. Parsons  David M. Paterson  Peter D. Thorne 《Sedimentology》2019,66(7):2749-2768

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Late Holocene environmental changes reconstructed from stable isotope and geochemical records from a cushion‐plant peatland in the Chilean Central Andes (27°S)     

S. T. Kock  K. Schittek  B. Mchtle  H. Wissel  A. Maldonado  A. Lücke 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(2):153-164

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Australian ‘gayborhoods’ and ‘lesborhoods’: a new method for estimating the number and prevalence of adult gay men and lesbian women living in each Australian postcode     

Denton Callander  Julie Mooney-Somers  Phillip Keen  Rebecca Guy  Tim Duck  Benjamin R. Bavinton 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(11):2160-2176

ABSTRACT

Gay men and lesbian women often demonstrate unique settlement patterns, forming what have been referred to as ‘gayborhoods’. This study sought to provide the first postcode-level estimates of population size and prevalence of gay and lesbian people in Australia. Data on same-gender-partnered households from the Australian Census were combined with information from six different surveys conducted from 2011 to 2017. We estimated that in 2016 there were 132,203 gay men (1.5% of adult males; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 79,931 lesbian women (0.9% of adult females; 95% CI: 0.8–1.0) in Australia. While many postcodes were sparsely populated by gay and lesbian people (40.1% had prevalences of <0.1%), 24.6% were moderately populated (prevalences in the 50-95th percentile) and 2.7% were highly populated (95th percentile). By jurisdiction, the Australian Capital Territory had the highest prevalences of gay men (2.1%; 95% CI: 2.0–2.2) and lesbian women (1.5%; 95% CI: 1.4–1.6). Although the majority of highly populated postcodes were found in major cities (83.7%), some were also found in regional and remote area (16.3%). This method can be applied in other countries to enhance populate estimates. The accompanying dataset can be used to guide service delivery, conduct geographically contextualised research and develop policies relevant to gay men and lesbian women in Australia.  相似文献   

Edge-to-Stem Variability in Wet-Canopy Evaporation From an Urban Tree Row     

John T. Van StanII  Zachary Norman  Adrian Meghoo  Jan Friesen  Anke Hildebrandt  Jean-François Côté  S. Jeffrey Underwood  Gustavo Maldonado 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2017,165(2):295-310

Evaporation from wet-canopy (\(E_\mathrm{C}\)) and stem (\(E_\mathrm{S}\)) surfaces during rainfall represents a significant portion of municipal-to-global scale hydrologic cycles. For urban ecosystems, \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) dynamics play valuable roles in stormwater management. Despite this, canopy-interception loss studies typically ignore crown-scale variability in \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and assume (with few indirect data) that \(E_\mathrm{S}\) is generally \({<}2\%\) of total wet-canopy evaporation. We test these common assumptions for the first time with a spatially-distributed network of in-canopy meteorological monitoring and 45 surface temperature sensors in an urban Pinus elliottii tree row to estimate \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) under the assumption that crown surfaces behave as “wet bulbs”. From December 2015 through July 2016, 33 saturated crown periods (195 h of 5-min observations) were isolated from storms for determination of 5-min evaporation rates ranging from negligible to 0.67 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\). Mean \(E_\mathrm{S}\) (0.10 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)) was significantly lower (\(p < 0.01\)) than mean \(E_\mathrm{C}\) (0.16 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)). But, \(E_\mathrm{S}\) values often equalled \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and, when scaled to trunk area using terrestrial lidar, accounted for 8–13% (inter-quartile range) of total wet-crown evaporation (\(E_\mathrm{S}+E_\mathrm{C}\) scaled to surface area). \(E_\mathrm{S}\) contributions to total wet-crown evaporation maximized at 33%, showing a general underestimate (by 2–17 times) of this quantity in the literature. Moreover, results suggest wet-crown evaporation from urban tree rows can be adequately estimated by simply assuming saturated tree surfaces behave as wet bulbs, avoiding problematic assumptions associated with other physically-based methods.  相似文献   

Structure of the South Powell Ridge (NE Antarctic Peninsula): new clues for changing tectonic regimes near the Scotia/Antarctica Plate boundary     

J. C. Balanyá  J. Galindo-Zaldívar  A. Jabaloy  G. Leitchenkov  A. Maldonado  J. Rodríguez-Fernández  O. Vinnikovskaya 《Geo-Marine Letters》1999,18(3):215-224

The structure of the South Powell Ridge (SPR), separating the Late Cenozoic ocean-floored Powell Basin and the Mesozoic Weddell Sea domain, is revealed by multichannel seismic data. The SPR appears as a basement high, bounded northward by transtensional faults and by normal and major reverse faults to the south. These margin features seem to be linked to the Powell Basin southern strike-slip margin and to the Jane Arc paleotrench, respectively. We suggest the ridge evolved from the Antarctic Peninsula passive margin to become the deformational front of the Scotia/Antarctica Plate boundary, later being welded to the Antarctic Plate. Received: 18 August 1997 / Revision received: 4 May 1998  相似文献   

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> infection incidence prediction in hospitals (CDIIPH): a predictive model based on decision tree and fuzzy techniques     

Gyan?Chhipi-ShresthaEmail author  Julie?Mori  Kasun?Hewage  Rehan?Sadiq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(2):417-430

Several risk factors associated with the increased likelihood of healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have been identified in the literature. These risk factors are mainly related to age, previous CDI, antimicrobial exposure, and prior hospitalization. No model is available in the published literature that can be used to predict the CDI incidence using healthcare administration data. However, the administrative data can be imprecise and may challenge the building of classical statistical models. Fuzzy set theory can deal with the imprecision inherent in such data. This research aimed to develop a model based on deterministic and fuzzy mathematical techniques for the prediction of hospital-associated CDI by using the explanatory variables controllable by hospitals and health authority administration. Retrospective data on CDI incidence and other administrative data obtained from 22 hospitals within a regional health authority in British Columbia were used to develop a decision tree (deterministic technique based) and a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model (fuzzy technique based). The decision tree model had a higher prediction accuracy than that of the fuzzy based model. However, among the common results predicted by two models, 72 % were correct. Therefore, this relationship was used to combine their results to increase the precision and the strength of evidence of the prediction. These models were further used to develop an Excel-based tool called C. difficile Infection Incidence Prediction in Hospitals (CDIIPH). The tool can be utilized by health authorities and hospitals to predict the magnitude of CDI incidence in the following quarter.  相似文献