Human response to environmental change in the perspective of future, global climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Karl W. Butzer   《Quaternary Research》1983,19(3):279-292

Human response to severe environmental stress is conceived and implemented by individuals, but must be approved by the group. These decisions are made with respect to perceived circumstances. Societies are enmeshed within adaptive systems that provide a matrix of opportunities and constraints for a wide range of potential behavioral variability. Such systems repeatedly readjust to short-term crises, e.g., droughts, but persistent and severe environmental stress may require substantial revision of adaptive strategies. The Sahel drought of 1968–1973 is an example of a brief but severe crisis, recurring along the Saharan margins perhaps once every 30 years. Closer inspection shows links between intensified intertribal warfare and ecological stress in the lower Omo Valley. The decline of the Egyptian New Kingdom during the 12th century B.C., in response to economic stagnation, sociopolitical instability, dynastic weakness, foreign pressures, and poor Nile floods over 50–70 years, represents a more complex and fundamental modification, with systemic simplification lasting 450 years. Such insights can be applied to future, global climatic change due to increasing atmospheric CO₂. Simulation and paleoclimatic experience suggest a drier climate for the North American and Soviet breadbaskets, to threaten world food supplies at a time of maximum demographic pressures and declining resources. Public perception and remedial planning should receive the attention of Quaternary scientists, in order to preempt an involuntary, global, systemic simplification.  相似文献   

Hillslope gullying in the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region, Great Britain: Responses to human impact and/or climatic deterioration?     

R.C. Chiverrell  A.M. Harvey  G.C. Foster 《Geomorphology》2007,84(3-4):317

In the Solway Firth — Morecambe Bay region of Great Britain there is evidence for heightened hillslope instability during the late Holocene (after 3000 cal. BP). Little or no hillslope geomorphic activity has been identified occurring during the early Holocene, but there is abundant evidence for late Holocene hillslope erosion (gullying) and associated alluvial fan and valley floor deposition. Interpretation of the regional radiocarbon chronology available from organic matter buried beneath alluvial fan units suggests much of this geomorphic activity can be attributed to four phases of more extensive gullying identified after 2500–2200, 1300–1000, 1000–800 and 500 cal. BP. Both climate and human impact models can be evoked to explain the crossing of geomorphic thresholds: and palaeoecological data on climatic change (bog surface wetness) and human impact (pollen), together with archaeological and documentary evidence of landscape history, provide a context for addressing the causes of late Holocene geomorphic instability. High magnitude storm events are the primary agent responsible for gully incision, but neither such events nor cooler/wetter climatic episodes appear to have produced gully systems in the region before 3000 cal. BP. Increased gullying after 2500–2200 cal. BP coincides with population expansion during Iron Age and Romano-British times. The widespread and extensive gullying after 1300–1000 cal. BP and after 1000–800 cal. BP coincides with periods of population expansion and a growing rural economy identified during Norse times, 9–10th centuries AD, and during the Medieval Period, 12–13th centuries AD. These periods were separated by a downturn associated with the ‘harrying of the north’ AD 1069 to 1070. The gullying episode after 500 cal. BP also coincides with increased anthropogenic pressure on the uplands, with population growth and agricultural expansion after AD 1500 following 150 years of malaise caused by livestock and human (the Black Death) plagues, poor harvests and conflicts on the Scottish/English border. The increased susceptibility to erosion of gullies is a response to increased anthropogenic pressure on upland hillslopes during the late Holocene, and the role of this pressure appears crucial in priming hillslopes before subsequent major storm events. In particular, the cycles of expansion and contraction in both population and agriculture appear to have affected the susceptibility of the upland landscape to erosion, and the hillslope gullying record in the region, therefore, contributes to understanding of the timing and spatial pattern of human exploitation of the upland landscape.  相似文献   

The impact of a major Quaternary river capture on the alluvial sediments of a beheaded river system, the Rio Alias SE Spain   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Elizabeth Maher  Adrian M. Harvey  Derek France 《Geomorphology》2007,84(3-4):344

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Parameterisation of the vertical transport in a small thermally stratified lake     

Christoph von Rohden  Karl Wunderle  Johann Ilmberger 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2007,69(1):129-137

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Late Devensian and Holocene landscape change in the uplands of the Isle of Man     

R. C. Chiverrell  G. S. P. Thomas  A. M. Harvey 《Geomorphology》2001,40(3-4)

The Late Glacial and Holocene geomorphology of the Manx uplands has received scant attention in previous researches. Solifluction deposits and terraces provide the earliest evidence for geomorphic activity after deglaciation. Fluvial incision into drift-choked valleys is correlated with the formation of the large mountain front alluvial fans that flank the Manx uplands. Formation of these alluvial fans is constrained to 15,000–10,500 cal. years BP by ¹⁴C dates on organic deposits beneath and above the alluvial fan gravels. Alluvial fan and river terraces along four valleys postdate this incision. Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and ¹⁴C dating provide a tentative chronology for these landforms. The higher terraces are Late Glacial fluvial surfaces that were probably occupied by rivers into the Holocene. Incision during the Late Holocene led to the abandonment of the higher surfaces, producing a suite of younger river terraces and alluvial fan surfaces. Independent dating constrains this fluvial activity to post-Bronze Age (3500–2800 cal. years BP). Increased human activity and climatic change during the Late Holocene are possible causes for this increased geomorphic activity.  相似文献   

Development of a risk-hedging CO2-emission policy, part I: Risks of unrestrained emissions     

L. D. Danny Harvey 《Climatic change》1996,34(1):1-40

A rational global strategy with respect to greenhouse-gas emissions would seek to minimize total risk, which is the sum of the risk of negative impacts due to climatic change associated with a given level of emissions, and the risks associated with the process of achieving that emission level. Given the existence of reducible uncertainties in estimating these risks, and the possibility that an emission target thought to minimize total risk is later found to be not strict enough, a risk-hedging strategy is a more realistic policy objective. This paper is Part I of a two-part series in which these risks are reviewed and an interim risk-hedging emission level is proposed. Here, the risks associated with unrestrained greenhouse-gas emissions are reviewed. In particular, the carbon-cycle response to continuing CO₂ emissions; the heat trapping of projected greenhouse gas increases in comparison to other anthropogenic and natural heating or cooling perturbations; the climatic response to heating perturbations; and the impacts of projected climatic change on global agriculture, forests, coastal regions, coral reefs, water resources, terrestrial species, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone, and human comfort and welfare are critically examined. It is concluded that unrestrained emissions of greenhouse gases pose real and substantial risks to human societies and to ecosystems, and that these risks are likely to grow substantially if the climate warms beyond that associated with a CO₂ doubling. These risks clearly justify some action to limit emissions. The magnitude of emission restraint that is justified depends not only on the risks reviewed here, but also on the risks associated with measures to limit greenhouse-gas emissions, which are reviewed in Part II.  相似文献   

Decadal variability on the northwest european shelf     

Jürgen Sündermann  Gerd Becker  Peter Damm  Dries van den Eynde  Alexander Frohse  Remi Laane  Wim van Leussen  Thomas Pohlmann  Wim van Raaphorst  Günther Radach  Helga Schultz  Marijke Visser 《Ocean Dynamics》1996,48(3-4):365-400

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Spatial variability of water vapor turbulent transfer within the boundary layer     

D. I. Cooper  W. E. Eichinger  D. B. Holtkamp  R. R. Karl Jr.  C. R. Quick  W. Dugas  L. Hipps 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1992,61(4):389-406

Although the physics of evaporation within the inner region of the boundary layer is believed to be well understood, observations of mass-energy exchange processes have been hindered by the limitations of point sensors. A combination of point sensors and active remote sensing, namely, water-Raman Lidar measurements, offers new opportunities to study relatively large areas at temporal and spatial scales previously unattainable. Results from experiments over uniform canopies both confirm some traditional theories and challenge some of the underlying assumptions concerning the homogeneity of the surface-atmosphere interface and the use of point sensors to characterize large areas.This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy. The authors would like to thank F. Archuleta, J. Archuleta, F. Barnes, W. Clements, K. Muller and W. Porch of LANL, R. Whitis of USDA, R. Jackson and P. Pinter of USDA-WCL, and L. Balick of EG&G for their invaluable time and support.  相似文献   

Limits on strength and deformation properties of jointed basaltic rock masses   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：5  

R. A. Schultz 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》1995,28(1):1-15

Summary A study of strength and deformation measurements for basaltic rocks, along with consideration of the influence of fracturing using a rock mass classification system, documents the range of brittle response for basaltic rock masses. Although basalts vary widely in composition and other physical factors, many of the properties of a basaltic rock mass appear to vary within a factor of about 10. Typical values of strength parameters for intact basalt at ambient temperature (20°C) and negligible confining pressure are Young's modulus, 78±19 GPa; Poisson's ratio, 0.25±0.05; tensile strength, –14.5±3.3 MPa; unconfined compressive strength, 266±98 MPa; and conhesion, 66 MPa. Corresponding values for a basaltic rock mass that incorporate the weakening effects of scale are deformation modulus, 10–40 GPa; Poisson's ratio, 0.3; tensile strength, –0.1 to –2.5 MPa; uniaxial compressive strength, 10–90 MPa; and cohesion, 0.6–6 MPa. A measured deformation modulus for ambient pressure in the vertical direction, 20 GPa, is 1.5–3 times larger than that in the horizontal directions, 13.5 and 6.5 GPa, reflecting strength anisotropy due to column or block geometry for one particular basalt. Values of tensile and cohesive strength for the basaltic rock mass are generally one to two orders of magnitude lower than corresponding values for intact basalt. The shear strength of joints appears to vary considerably from flow to flow.  相似文献   

The role of wind direction in eolian transport on a narrow sandy beach     

Karl F. Nordstrom  Nancy L. Jackson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1993,18(8):675-685

Comparison of eolian transport during five high-velocity wind events over a 29 day period on a narrow estuarine beach in Delaware Bay, New Jersey, USA, reveals the temporal variability of transport, due to changes in direction of wind approach. Mean wind speed measured 6 m above the dune crest for the five events ranged from 8·5 to 15·9 ms^?1. Mean wind direction was oblique to the shoreline (63° from shore-normal) during one event but was within 14° of shore-normal during the other events. Eolian transport is greatest during low tide and rising tide, when the beach source area is widest and when drying of surface sediments occurs. The quantity of sediment caught in a vertical trap for the five events varied from a total of 0·07 to 113·73 kgm^?1. Differences in temperature, relative humidity and moisture and salt content of surficial sediments were slight. Mean grain sizes ranged from 0·33 to 0·58 mm, causing slight differences in threshold shear velocity, but shear velocities exceeded the threshold required for transport during all events. Beach width, measured normal to the shoreline, varied from 15·5 to 18·0 m; beach slope differed by 0·5°. The oblique wind during one event created a source width nearly double the width during other days. Beach slope, measured in the direction of the wind, was less than half as steep as the slope measured normal to the shoreline. The amount of sand trapped during the oblique wind was over 20 times greater than any other event, even those with higher shear velocities. The ability of the beach surface to supply grains to the air stream is limited on narrow beaches, but increased source width, due to oblique wind approach, can partially overcome limitations of surface conditions on the beach.  相似文献